PPCC: Pisitófilos Creditófagos. Otoño 2023

[siempretarde]

De lo mejor que he visto en este foro... , bueno .... y en cualquier otro.... Bamos abisaos. Y solo puedo unirme a su opinion, (Anoche habia gente que ponian el apostrofe de "inmediato")

Derby solo hay una... y junto con Cadavre ... exquisito. A sus pies.

En otro orden de cosas, por si interesa, o por lo menos entretiene leerlo (una de las cosas que más me motiva a escribir es que a la gente le pueda resultar entretenido):

La gamma del SP y del Nasdaq en negativo desde hace semanas, pero ojo, ahora mismo está más peligroso el SP que el Nasdaq.

Y lo digo porque desde hace un par de semanas aparecen unas puts fuera del dinero en el SP que tienen un efecto acojonante:

- Tienes un montón de puts mucho más abajo del precio actual.
- Están en dos tandas, unas bastante abajo y otras todavía máaaas abajo.
- Os recuerdo que estamos en gamma negativo y los rebotes se están agotando en cuanto la gamma intenta volver a positivo.
- Pues bien, estas puts fuera del dinero no valen nada, son puro humo, con la volatilidad actual su valor es meramente debido al valor temporal (la probabilidad, escasa de que el índice llegue hasta allí en los pocos días que les quedan siempre para el vencimiento).
- Pero las van renovando semana a semana.
- Es decir, alguien mantiene una posición que le supone un gasto pero no la quiere dejar de tener.
- Y aquí llega lo bueno, en cuanto el SP baja, esas puts empiezan a tener valor y como estamos en gamma negativa el market maker tiene que vender futuros para cubrir ese valor (en su contra) que se ha generado en esas puts.

Y ahí está el problema, que cuanto más baja más valen las puts y más tiene que vender el market maker para cubrirlas.

Llega el viernes, vencen las puts, rebote, pero el lunes o el martes lo miras y VUELVEN A ESTAR AHÍ.

En una de éstas, va a bajar de verdad, llegará al nivel donde están las puts y teóricamente ahí ya no debería tener que vender futuros el market maker, pero...

... pero había otra tanda de puts mucho más abajo, tan abajo que nunca valían nada y no había que cubrirlas por mucho que bajara el SP...

... hasta que el SP baja mucho y también empiezan a tener valor...

Gamma del SP el lunes 25 de septiembre:



Gamma del SP ayer lunes:



No, no me he confundido pegando las mismas imágenes, las puts están ahí para cualquier vencimiento, os recuerdo que en el SP hay vencimiento diario, es decir, que la línea azúl es el vencimiento más cercano (el lunes) y la naranja es el martes y la gris el miércoles.

Pero es que va pasando el tiempo, vas pelando la naranja de vencimientos y a la semana siguiente siguen estando ahí, y siguen estando todos los días de la semana, así que las que vencen las van volviendo a abrir...

En cambio, la gamma de ayer del Nasdaq da menos miedo:

[Cadavre Exquis]

Ya verán cuando se enteren de esto los palilleros patrios lo que tardan en empezar a especular sobre cuanto "valdría" y cuanto podrían sacarle al tocho en la Luna

NASA Plans To Build Houses On the Moon By 2040
Posted by BeauHD on Wednesday October 04, 2023 @03:00AM from the maybe-in-your-lifetime dept.

Several scientists from NASA told the New York Times that the agency is planning to build houses on the moon by 2040. Forbes reports:

The agency is set to return to the moon and is hoping its astronauts can stay long-term -- in a house built on the moon via a 3D printer. The idea is to build the house structure out of a special lunar concrete from the moon's surface, and NASA has found just the company to do it: Austin-based 3D printing company, ICON. In what's been dubbed Project Olympus, ICON

ICON created its first 350-square-foot prototype home in Austin in March 2018 with a proprietary machine called Vulcan. This year, it showcased its first model home at Wolf Ranch in Georgetown, Texas, which is part of its 3D-printed 100-home community project. The start-up first received funding from NASA in 2020, and in 2022 it announced an additional $60 million for a space-based construction system that can be used beyond earth. The idea is to send a 3D printer up to the moon via a rocket, and the printer completes its job from there.

"We've got all the right people together at the right time with a common goal, which is why I think we'll get there," NASA's director of technology maturation, Niki Werkheiser told The New York Times. "Everyone is ready to take this step together, so if we get our core capabilities developed, there's no reason it's not possible."

Saludos.

[Derby]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-10-04/apollo-backed-german-landlord-gears-up-for-debt-talks-with-creditors

German Landlord Gears Up For Debt Talks With Creditors

Demire has about €500 million notes maturing in October 2024
Company has been under pressure after asset sale fell through

Demire Deutsche Mittelstand Real Estate AG and its creditors are gearing up for debt refinancing talks as the Apollo-backed landlord faces a looming bond maturity amid an industry downturn.

Demire has hired Rothschild & Co. to advise on its refinancing, according to people familiar with the matter who asked not to be named because the information is private. Bondholders have also been hearing pitches from potential advisors, said some of the people.

Rothschild declined to comment. Representatives for Demire and Apollo didn’t respond to requests for comment.

Demire, which focuses on commercial real estate in mid-sized German cities, needs to refinance about €500 million ($526 million) of outstanding notes maturing in October 2024. The company has been suffering amid an industry-wide slump, and an asset sale falling through earlier this year has added to the pressure.



In July, the €121 million sale of a logistics property fell through after the buyer pulled out, prompting warnings from ratings agencies who had seen the transaction as key to Demire’s refinancing plans. The company has since said that there is strong buyer interest in the asset and it plans to complete a deal this year.

The challenges facing Demire are a reflection of the broader real estate sector in Europe as companies that grew rapidly during an era of cheap financing adapt to higher-for-longer interest rates. Commercial property markets have seized up as buyers and sellers struggle to agree on pricing, with higher rates prompting real estate investors to demand higher yields, pressuring valuations.

Demire has also explored other ways of reducing its debt burden. In April, it reduced the outstanding amount of notes due in 2024 by buying back €51 million bonds in the secondary market at a discount.

Apollo owns around 59% of Demire’s shares, while around 32% is held by investor Wecken Group, according to Demire’s first-half report.

[Derby]

https://www.reuters.com/business/uk-housebuilder-vistry-shares-plummet-analysts-slam-business-plan-2023-10-04/

UK housebuilder Vistry shares plummet as analysts slam business plan

Oct 4 (Reuters) - Shares in Vistry Group (VTYV.L) fell more than 7% on Wednesday, scoring their biggest three-day drop since March 2020, as broker downgrades hit the $3.3 billion UK housebuilder in markets stressed by the rapid surge in bond yields.

UBS cut the stock to sell from neutral on Wednesday, saying its was cautious about the company's over-ambitious plans.

"If it's too good to be true, it probably is: cut to Sell," wrote analysts at the Swiss bank led by Gregor Kuglitsch.

"We are cautious about the recently presented business plan which requires near record volumes delivered for a single UK housebuilder and are cautious about relatively high leverage and fair value adjustments," they added.

Vistry has lost 15% of its value in the last three days, as a slowdown in the UK housing sector intensifies, erasing the gains it made since early September when it announced the merger of its Partnerships and Housebuilding operations.

On Wednesday it was the biggest faller on the STOXX Europe 600 (.STOXX) index. The stock is up around 23% so far in 2023.

On Tuesday, Jefferies downgraded Vistry Group to hold from buy, citing doubts over its business model.

"The evolution to a full Partnership model looks good as a spreadsheet exercise. However in practice the achievement of targeted volumes & margins is not without risk," wrote Jefferies analyst Glynis Johnson.

[sudden and sharp]

.......................................
Apple CEO Tim Cook makes $41 mln from biggest stock sale in two years
https://www.reuters.com/technology/apple-ceo-tim-cook-makes-41-mln-biggest-stock-sale-two-years-2023-10-04/

[Derby]

https://www.ft.com/content/47f66b34-b30e-4365-8421-7b9d3e3fdc13

Treasuries: high yields leave banks twice bitten, investors thrice shy

A resurgence of unrealised losses in the third quarter could put fresh strain on lenders’ balance sheets

The upward march of Treasury yields has largely wiped out US bond market returns for the year. Now they threaten to crimp US bank earnings.

The US banking sector was finally starting to enjoy some semblance of stability after turmoil following the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank in March. Deposit outflows have subsided at large banks and reversed at smaller ones, according to Federal Reserve data.

But the sharp rise in bond yields threatens to heap fresh pressure on the sector. Investors have been selling bank shares since the Federal Reserve signalled it may keep rates higher for longer. The yield on 30-year US Treasuries, which ended the third quarter with the biggest quarterly jump in more than a decade, hit a 16-year high this week.

Both the KBW regional banking index and the broader KBW bank index have fallen about 10 per cent over the past month. They are down 26 per cent since new year.

Higher yields on newly issued Treasury bonds will further erode the value of bonds and loans acquired or issued when rates were lower. US banks were sitting on $558bn of unrealised losses in their securities portfolio at the end of June, according to the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation.

A resurgence of unrealised losses in the third quarter could put fresh strain on banks’ balance sheets, forcing lenders to tap the Fed for expensive emergency funding or pay more to keep depositors. The latter have poured vast sums into money market funds.

Higher funding costs, combined with slowing loan growth, would in turn put downward pressure on banks’ net interest margins.

Analysts are busy cutting their bank earnings forecasts. Wells Fargo has lowered its earnings per share estimates for the sector by 2 per cent this year and 5 per cent next year. Morgan Stanley has cut its forecasts by 3 per cent next year.

Investors had imagined successful resolutions of failed lenders marked the end of the sector’s painful adjustment to higher rates. Think again.

[Derby]

https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/mortgage-rates-race-demand-plummets-three-decade-low

Mortgage rates race toward 8% as demand plummets to three-decade low

High mortgage rates rapidly cooling housing demand

A key measure of home-purchase applications tumbled last week to a nearly three-decade low as consumer demand cooled sharply amid a recent surge in mortgage rates.

The Mortgage Bankers Association's index of mortgage applications fell 6% last week to the lowest level since 1996, according to new data published Wednesday.

The data also showed that the average rate on the popular 30-year loan climbed for the fourth straight week to 7.53%, the highest level since 2000. By comparison, just one year ago, rates hovered around 5.65%.

"Mortgage rates continued to move higher last week as markets digested the recent upswing in Treasury yields," said Joel Kan, MBA’s deputy chief economist. "As a result, mortgage applications ground to a halt, dropping to the lowest level since 1996."(...)

https://www.elconfidencial.com/inmobiliario/2023-10-04/alerta-en-el-mercado-inmobiliario-de-eeuu_3747979/

¿Alerta inmobiliaria en EEUU? Las solicitudes de compra de vivienda caen a mínimos de 1995

[Derby]

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/10/04/us/politics/biden-student-loans.html

Biden Cancels an Additional $9 Billion in Student Loan Debt

The move comes just three days after student loan repayments resumed following a three-year pause.

President Biden canceled an additional $9 billion in student debt on Wednesday as repayments started up again this month after a three-year pause.

The move affects 125,000 people who qualify under existing programs, including for public-service workers such as teachers and firefighters and for people on permanent disability, according to a White House statement.

“This kind of relief is life changing for individuals and their families,” Mr. Biden said on Wednesday.(...)

[Cadavre Exquis]

https://cincodias.elpais.com/opinion/2023-10-04/el-esfuerzo-para-pagar-la-vivienda-va-mas-alla-del-hogar.html

https://cincodias.elpais.com/economia/2023-10-04/las-familias-espanolas-dedican-casi-un-40-de-su-renta-a-comprar-una-vivienda-record-desde-2011.html

Saludos.

[Cadavre Exquis]

https://cincodias.elpais.com/companias/2023-10-04/la-inmobiliaria-torre-rioja-prepara-su-salida-a-bolsa-en-2024.html

Saludos.

[Cadavre Exquis]

https://cincodias.elpais.com/companias/2023-10-03/telefonica-lanza-un-plan-para-cerrar-mas-de-un-centenar-de-edificios-en-toda-espana.html

Saludos.

[Cadavre Exquis]

https://cincodias.elpais.com/companias/2023-10-03/espana-recibe-577-millones-de-turistas-hasta-agosto-que-gastaron-casi-73400-millones-de-euros.html

Saludos.

[Cadavre Exquis]

https://cincodias.elpais.com/mercados-financieros/2023-10-03/las-rentabilidades-de-las-letras-repuntan-y-el-tesoro-paga-un-386-por-la-deuda-a-12-meses.html

Saludos.

[Cadavre Exquis]

https://cincodias.elpais.com/fondos-y-planes/2023-10-03/la-inversion-de-impacto-se-conjura-un-billon-de-euros-para-reinventar-el-capitalismo.html

Saludos.

[Cadavre Exquis]

https://elpais.com/economia/2023-10-03/los-afiliados-a-la-seguridad-social-crecen-en-septiembre-pese-a-la-subida-del-paro-por-el-fin-del-verano.html

https://elpais.com/economia/2023-10-03/los-sindicatos-insisten-en-reformar-la-indemnizacion-por-despido-y-la-patronal-lo-rechaza.html

Saludos.