PPCC: Pisitófilos Creditófagos. Otoño 2023

[siempretarde]

Causa: Se ha cortado el suministro de oxigeno desde afuera.
Consecuencias: Cada uno tiene que mirar las reservas de su botella de oxigeno y racionarlo entre el oxigeno que entrega y el que recibe.

Vivi muy "intensamente" esa otra bajada en los 90.  Sin comentarios ....

Mireme a los ojos y diga "esto no va a ser divertido".  Aqui no solo va de Inmobiliario, si no de si las Familias/Empresas tienen o pueden conseguir un Cash-Flow positivo. El beneficio no importa, ya que se puede hacer una suspension de pagos con beneficio elevado.

Esto va muy rapido cuando empieza, si empieza, todo depende si la cantidad de oxigeno en el sistema es suficiente para mantenerlo y circula adecuadamente.

 

¿Alguno de los gurús del foro que nos expliquen causas y consecuencias? ¿Credit crunch y bancarrotas en cadena?

Baja mucho después de subir mucho. Hasta ahí, normal. Ahora está en negativo... si se quedara mucho ahí, iríamos a deflación. (Es dudoso que lo permitan.)

[errozate]

Algunos compañeros del foro llevan esperando el derrumbe del inmobiliario el mismo tiempo que otros llevamos esperando la aparición de extraterrestres.

No desespero de que, finalmente, se dignen aparecer los extraterrestres pero de momento y como buen preludio hay dos escenarios muy claros de derrumbe de los precios inmobiliarios.

El primero es conocido: Una guerra tipo Dresden, Hiroshima, Nagasaki o Gaza. No cito Kiev porque allí la caída solo ha sido del 50%.

El segundo también es conocido pero escasamente divulgado: Un buen régimen bolivariano. 

Esta semana que termina he conocido un caso de primera mano durante una reunión de amigos: Un apartamento valorado en su día en un poco más de 2.M de Dólares vendido muy recientemente por 60,000  Dólares. Caracas.
Su propietario, hombre acaudalado y residente fuera de su país, tardó en venderlo esperando que la cosa se arreglase y cuando liquidó la propiedad consiguió lo dicho: 60K$. Y, por lo visto, siguen bajando.

Como supongo que nadie del foro desea el escenario número uno para España es difícil no llegar a la conclusión de que lo que se busca es el segundo.

Saludos

Manu. Aupa!

Bueno, el caso es que hemos ido de excursión a Cantabria Infinita. Y hemos ido a las Jornadas de la Langosta.
¡Ojo! la mejor langosta de España. No lo digo yo. Lo dicen ellos.

Al final hemos sido uno más de los previstos inicialmente y hemos tenido que sudar tinta china para que aceptaran poner una silla más. Dos turnos. Local en el que pueden dar siete bodas si quieren. Ventanales mirando al mar. Precioso. Todo lleno. Primer turno lleno; segundo turno lleno. Y así todo el mes que duran las Jornadas de la Langosta. Porque como sabes en Nuestra Querida España vivimos de día en día peor y todo ese rollo.

Bueno, el caso es que paseando por unos cierres que tienen entre las rocas y que hacen una especie de piscinas; yo pensé en mi ignorancia que eran piscinas para los niños, para que no se ahoguen y ¡que va! eran los antiguos viveros de langostas. Son cetáceos; y como bien sabes la palabra Getaria, del pueblo de Gipuzkoa, o Getari (Guetary), del pueblo de Lapurdi, vienen de los tiempos de los romanos relacionado con cetáceos; o sea, lugares donde tenían sus criaderos de langostas, bogavantes, etc. No hemos inventado nada.

Bueno, el caso es que mirando al mar, que si estuviera claro vería Inglaterra o Irlanda, pero veía, cuando ha levantado la niebla, cuando ha pasado la galerna, cuando han pasado los chubascos, he divisado los grandes barcos que hoy no podían entrar en la Bahía de Santander, esperando. Y mirando al mar, soñé que estabas junto a mí; pero no, no eras tú era un extraterrestre y me ha mandado un mensaje telepático que decía: dile a tu amigo Manu Oquendo que sea un poco más positivo en la vida.

Manu: seamos positivos. Anda, no todo es negativo; y sino, ven a Cantabria Infinita. Ven y cuentalo.

Un abrazo, amigo.

Ah, y si no me haces caso a mí, hazle caso a Jorge Sepúlveda:

https://youtu.be/fngNOS7hJko?si=P9zFbj_oQ4Wy3htc

 

[Derby]

Seguro que es facilísimo...hablan de miles de millones como si nada. A Merlín le vendrían bien, sí. 

https://cincodias.elpais.com/companias/2023-11-11/merlin-busca-una-inyeccion-de-1000-millones-entre-fondos-soberanos-y-de-pensiones-para-centros-de-datos.html

Merlin busca una inyección de 1.000 millones entre fondos soberanos y de pensiones para centros de datos

Apuesta por una ampliación de capital en 2024 para un único socio con una prima relevante sobre su precio de cotización

Merlin Properties quiere tomar ventaja en el pujante negocio de los centros de datos en España, del que se prevé un relevante potencial por el desarrollo de la inteligencia artificial. Por eso, la socimi va a acelerar su plan de inversión para cuadriplicar su capacidad con nuevas instalaciones en menos de una década. Para lograrlo, la inmobiliaria baraja la idea dar entrada en el capital por 1.000 millones de euros a un único socio, preferiblemente fondo soberano o fondo de pensiones, con una prima relevante sobre el precio actual de cotización en Bolsa, según explican fuentes de mercado.

A esa inversión de 1.000 millones se sumaría una munición adicional de otros 1.000 millones de deuda para abordar la construcción de cada proyecto. La intención es cerrar la operación a mediados de 2024.

Esta inmobiliaria cuenta actualmente con tres centros de datos, operativos desde septiembre, de tres megavatios cada uno (MW), en Madrid, Barcelona y País Vasco. En 2024 iniciará la construcción de su cuarto complejo, en Lisboa. Mediante la inversión tecnológica dentro de esas instalaciones ya construidas, la socimi dirigida por Ismael Clemente como consejero delegado prevé alcanzar una ampliación hasta 40 a 50 MW en 2024 y a 58 MW en 2025. En total, habrá destinado 600 millones en esa primera fase.

Así, tras invertir 600 millones, más otros 1.000 millones de capital y otros 1.000 millones de apalancamiento, la inmobiliaria cotizada en el Ibex 35 habrá destinado un conjunto de 2.600 millones para obtener una capacidad total de 240 MW (58 MW ya previstos hasta 2025 y 180 MW nuevos en este reciente plan) en el entorno del año 2030, acelerando más de un lustro las previsiones iniciales de la compañía.
Las tres opciones

Ante la alta demanda de operadores tecnológicos, la socimi ha decidido adelantar una segunda fase con una fuerte inversión para lo que necesita de un nuevo socio, tal como adelantó Expansión el viernes. Actualmente, baraja tres opciones para obtener los 1.000 millones necesarios (además de otros 1.000 millones posteriores a negociar con la banca).

La opción favorita de la socimi, según fuentes de mercado, es realizar una ampliación de capital con un único socio por 1.000 millones en la matriz cotizada en el Ibex 35. En ese caso, emitiría acciones con una relevante prima sobre el precio de cotización, lo que no castigaría a los actuales accionistas (aunque se verían diluidos en el accionariado) y, además, podría impulsar el precio de la acción.

La segunda alternativa que baraja Merlin es inyectar ese capital de 1.000 millones en la filial que posea y gestione directamente los centros de datos.

Por último, habría una tercera opción consistente en captar los 1.000 millones en deuda, una opción más arriesgada en la actualidad y que puede penalizar a la socimi debido a la subida de tipos de interés y el encarecimiento del precio del dinero.

Merlin ya ha contactado con numerosos fondos y bancos de inversión para comunicar los planes. La intención de la socimi es encontrar al socio inversor principalmente entre los grandes fondos soberanos y de pensiones, que tienen un coste de capital menor y, por tanto, pueden asumir rentabilidades inferiores a otro tipo de inversores.

Tampoco se descarta, en un segundo nivel, a grandes fondos de capital riesgo, muy interesados en entrar en un segmento de alto crecimiento en el mundo y con poco desarrollo en España, aunque en este caso, la rentabilidad exigida por el socio puede ser mayor.

Si la operación se realiza finalmente a través de una ampliación de capital en la matriz, como consecuencia, los actuales accionistas se diluirán. Actualmente, Santander es el socio más relevante (con el 22,3% del capital), seguido por Manuel Lao (6,3%) y BlackRock (5%).

Teniendo en cuenta que actualmente la cotización de Merlin se sitúa en alrededor de 4.000 millones, la entrada de un socio con 1.000 millones (aunque tenga que pagar una prima importante) le situaría como uno de los accionistas más relevantes.(...)

[Derby]

https://www.ft.com/content/023d01d8-9652-458a-969f-c57e0ef5005b

Swedish property group SBB faces debt demand from US hedge fund

Fir Tree Partners attempts to call default on troubled company

A New York hedge fund has accused Swedish property giant Samhällsbyggnadsbolaget i Norden of defaulting on its debt, a move that threatens to drag the struggling company into a messy legal fight.

Once a stock market darling of Sweden’s retail investors, SBB has faced a reckoning this year as an $8bn debt pile amassed in the era of low interest rates threatens the group during a downturn in the Scandinavian property market.

SBB announced late on Thursday that it had received a “purported acceleration notice” from a bondholder alleging that the company had breached a covenant and that €46mn of its bonds needed to be repaid immediately.

An acceleration notice is issued when a company is deemed to have breached terms of its debt, triggering a default, and allowing bondholders to claim full repayment.

US hedge fund Fir Tree Partners confirmed to the Financial Times that it had issued the acceleration notice and was committed to “commencing proceedings against SBB for recovery of the debt”.

“SBB’s own financial statements make it clear that it has been in breach of its financial covenant since 31 March 2023, yet it has been attempting to use misleading accounting changes to mask the covenant breach and avoid its obligations,” Fir Tree Partners said.

SBB, whose shares have plunged this year, said it “firmly rejects” the notion that it had breached its covenants and that the notice was “ineffective”.

Leiv Synnes, SBB’s chief executive, told the Financial Times that the allegations of a covenant breach were “not a new issue” and the company’s position “remains the same”.

“We firmly assert and feel confident that we remain in compliance with the consolidated coverage ratio,” he said.

SBB, whose debt was downgraded from investment-grade to junk earlier this year, provoked uproar among its creditors in May when it “changed the presentation” of its financial reporting and then published an updated version of its results.

Several analysts noted that the reissued results removed the “profit before financial items” line from its balance sheet, which had previously appeared to have put SBB in breach of a covenant, a strict term that leads to a default if not rectified.

In the wake of the accounting change, US law firm Cleary Gottlieb Steen & Hamilton sent a “letter before action” to SBB’s board on behalf of unnamed bondholders, threatening to issue an acceleration notice because of the alleged breach.

US hedge funds including Diameter Capital Partners were behind that effort, according to several people familiar with the matter, but they later opted for more a conciliatory approach. A wider group of bondholders including BlackRock are pursuing discussions with the company about its debt.

On most bonds, acceleration notices can only be issued by a trustee, which acts as a neutral arbiter and represents creditors. However, the documentation for some of SBB’s bonds allow for individual holders to issue such notices and demand repayment.

One bondholder said other investors have been wary about doing this, however, because it could lead to a protracted litigation process in which SBB could countersue, while also potentially restricting the ability to trade the bonds.

“You have to ride or die on the litigation,” he said.

Shares in SBB, founded by former politician Ilija Batljan, were down about 5 per cent in late-morning trading on Friday in Stockholm, taking their losses this year to more than 80 per cent. Batljan stepped down as chief executive earlier this month but remains a major shareholder and director.

SBB recently struck a deal with Canada’s Brookfield to become a majority investor in its educational property division, which it has said should release SKr8bn ($734mn) of liquidity “to address near-term financial commitments”.

[sudden and sharp]

Todo extremo... últimamente:

Hedge Funds have increased their short stock positions for 14 consecutive weeks, the longest streak in history
https://twitter.com/Barchart/status/1723193184849682933




O bien...







 

[Suavesito_Papi]

A Pedro Sánchez le tienen manía por ser guapo y tener dinero, como a Cristiano. 

[Suavesito_Papi]

Al final la cuestión se reduce a:

Obreros+Cayetanos (fachas)
Vs
Funcionarios+Paguiteros (rojos de mierda)

Y todos pisitófilos..

Yo no lo veo tan claro

[Benzino Napaloni]

Al final la cuestión se reduce a:

Obreros+Cayetanos (fachas)
Vs
Funcionarios+Paguiteros (rojos de mierda)

Y todos pisitófilos..

Yo no lo veo tan claro

Yo sí lo veo.

No hay guita para la pisitofilia. Hay otras prioridades sistémicas como el invierno demográfico y el impacto que va a tener. En España, que tan dados somos al trabajo intensivo en mano de obra y de baja productividad, lo vamos a notar muchísimo.

Algunas ciudades y regiones ya han empezado a mover ficha, como Cataluña. Ya se nota la expulsión de los trabajadores de antiguas viviendas residenciales, y la orden es clara: atajar.

No se trata de si se va a poder evitar el pinchazo. Se trata de que no nos tiremos los trastos a la cabeza cuando sea evidente que no hay para tanto rentista. Eso es lo que no veo, el cómo se gestionará.

[errozate]

Yo, sinceramente, no lo veo tan claro en el tema de que el Pisito condicione todo.

Sánchez vs. Feijóo.

¿O no es eso? ¿O algo se me ha escapado? Para mí lo que estamos hablando es Sánchez vs. Feijóo.

Ah, no, que es el Pisito.

Pero vamos a ver. Gipuzkoa: 6 diputados al congreso. 2 de EH-Bildu, 2 del PSOE, 2 del PNV; o sea, 6 para Sánchez y 0 para Feijóo.
Bizkaia: 8 diputados 2 de EH-Bildu, 2 del PSOE, 2 del PNV, 1 Sumar y 1 PP; o sea, 7 para Sánchez y 1 para Feijóo.

¿Alguien se puede pensar que la Pisitofilia en Euskadi es menor que en Burgos, Cantabria, La Rioja o Aragón?

Anda no me jodas.

Creo que el Pisito puede ser todo lo importante que el maestro diga; pero es un elemento más. Hay más elementos. Creo que el pisito no explica todo. Explica parte.

Lo siento. Me arrepiento. Perdón. Propósito de enmienda. He cometido el pecado de decir que El Pisito no explica todo.

Es más, pese a lo que diga el Maestro o quién queráis no creo que los partidarios de Feijóo sean más o menos pisitófilos per se que los partidarios de Sánchez. Puede darse porque unos pueden ser más de la clase media y los otros más de la clase obrera; pero, sinceramente creo que la pisitofília es transversal. Todos somos pisitófilos, incluidos los catalanes. Creo que en que unos estemos a favor de Sánchez y otros estemos a favor de Feijóo hay factores más importantes que el Pisito; no creo que los compañeros del foro de derechas sean más pisitófilos o menos que yo.

Perdón. Propósito de Enmienda y de nunca más pecar....

[torre01]

Hay noticias y eventos históricos que pasan desapercibidos pero con el tiempo cobran su importancia.

Los veranos de Vladímir Putin en Biarritz: La mansión de su exmujer aparece con pintadas a favor de Ucrania
https://www.diariovasco.com/sociedad/pintadas-anglet-mansion-putin-20220304084832-nt.html

"Según ha informado la emisora de radio francesa Europe 1, la villa fue comprada por el presidente de Rusia por un precio que rondaría los 400.000 euros en 1996"

"Vladimir Putin es un asiduo visitante de Altea, en la costa de Alicante. La ciudad es una de las más conocidas de la Costa Blanca y una de las preferidas por los turistas rusos. El presidente de Rusia no escapa a sus encantos y ha sido visto en varias ocasiones en Altea. Se estima que en toda la provincia de Alicante hay unos 25.000 ciudadanos rusos."

La teoría dicta que las instancias de Putin durante los años que duró el matrimonio fueron de descanso y relax; la practica, todo lo contrario.


Federico entrevista a Maite Pagazaurtundúa sobre la la injerencia rusa en Cataluña
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QSKFVpBGUf8

Hay situaciones que se entienden mejor en la distancia

Un ruso cabreado por la huelga en Cataluña💥
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DbPuBAk_lQE

[Suavesito_Papi]

Yo creo que al "Maestro", como en la canción de Yung Beef, ya sólo le excita la maldad

https://youtu.be/hOlYQmWeuuw?si=vgtKcPoOuqiwGO0p

En cuanto a lo que dice el señor ruso, si habéis leído ese pozo de mierda de Alexander Dugin habréis visto que el dasein que propone para España es nada menos que el Alcázar de Toledo.

[Derby]

https://www.ft.com/content/b60fa38a-9cca-4170-a9f7-a0826b9ca74b

German homebuilding collapse threatens wider economic damage

Once-thriving residential construction industry has slumped, posing drag on EU’s largest economy

Wolfgang Schubert-Raab recalls when the boom times were so good that his firm could not build homes quickly enough.

“Back in 2021, before we’d even poured the first cubic metre of concrete, we’d already had offers on more than half the complex,” said the managing director of the Raab construction company. Two years on, the market for single-family dwellings is in what Schubert-Raab describes as a state of “completely collapse”.

Across Germany, homebuilders are facing such a sharp reversal in their fortunes that the downturn in residential construction is threatening to have broader repercussions across Europe’s largest economy.

Many have declared themselves insolvent, dampening Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s target of building 400,000 new homes a year to tackle a housing affordability crisis in several of the country’s largest cities.

This week, the federal government combined with state legislatures to intervene, unveiling a package of measures aimed at speeding up housebuilding by cutting red tape. Industry representatives view the response as a step in the right direction, but are concerned the measures are not strong enough and the rollout will be far too slow.

Tim-Oliver Müller, managing director of the German Construction Federation (HDB), said: “Based on past experience, we don’t believe that it will be implemented quickly. The federal structures are far too complex for that.”

After a decade-long boom fuelled by strong demand, cheap credit and low costs for raw materials, German builders are now facing what Gereon Frauenrath, managing director of construction company Frauenrath Group, describes as a “perfect storm”.

Raw materials are now more than 40 per cent more expensive than before the pandemic — the biggest surge in Europe. The credit-intensive sector must also grapple with 10 straight interest rate rises by the European Central Bank. While the country still has a shortfall of suitable homes, especially in the major cities, the higher cost of borrowing is pricing many prospective buyers out.

The result has been a devastating loss of confidence that has led to the country’s residential property market being among the worst performers in Europe.

House prices were down 10 per cent year on year in the second quarter, while the number of building permits issued has sunk far more quickly here than in the region as a whole. In October, 22.2 per cent of companies reported cancelled projects — the most since the Ifo think-tank began recording the figure in 1991.

“It’s getting worse all the time,” said Klaus Wohlrabe, head of surveys at Ifo. “In residential construction, new business remains very low and companies’ order backlogs are diminishing.” 

Construction output rose by more than 16 per cent between the first quarter of 2015 and the start of 2022. As demand soared on the back of low rates and relatively lax lending standards, house prices rose by 66 per cent, according to the EU’s statistics office Eurostat.

Now the troubles of the sector, which made up more than 5 per cent of GDP in 2021, is contributing to an outlook that has seen Germany fall to the bottom of the IMF’s rankings of leading economies.

Susannah Streeter, senior investment analyst at asset manager Hargreaves Lansdown, said: “Given that the real estate sector is a driver for growth in Germany, [the sector’s issues] don’t bode well.”

Firms whose fortunes are tied to residential construction are also feeling the strain.

Sabine Brockschnieder, managing director of the Baumann Group, which has built Germans’ bathrooms and kitchens for more than a century, says times have rarely been tougher.

“Smaller companies will face serious difficulties with the drop in sales and increased costs,” Brockschnieder said, adding that orders have fallen 15 per cent from a year ago.

Rising costs and weakened demand are expected to force Baumann to cut some of its 1,200 workers and put others on a furlough scheme.

“Unfortunately, we will be forced to part with the temporary workers we employ, because we expect next year to be even worse,” said Brockschnieder.

The industry believes the government should intervene to correct what many housebuilders see as a market failure.

They argue that, unlike in previous downturns in the 1990s or early 2000s, residents of large cities such as Berlin, Munich, Hamburg, Cologne and Frankfurt still face a shortage of affordable homes.

“The current conditions — much higher construction costs and an increase of interest rates — are scaring off investors and builders,” said Jörg Hegestweiler, chief executive of BKL Baukran Logistik, which sells and rents cranes to the construction sector.

In September, the industry agreed a 14-point action plan with the federal government that included a mix of tax benefits, attractive subsidy programmes, the lowering of energy-saving standards and simplification of planning and approval procedures.

Building minister Klara Geywitz said the package of measures unveiled on Monday would speed up the sector’s revival by lowering bureaucratic and legal hurdles for builders.

“In order for affordable housing to be built more quickly, we need more speed in planning, approval and construction,” she said. “The pact that the federal and state governments have now agreed on will ensure the necessary acceleration.”

Felix Pakleppa, managing director of ZDB, an association representing 35,000 construction companies, says the package of measures offers a “glimmer of hope” but more is needed.

“To be able to switch into acceleration mode, you first need new orders. And these are becoming fewer and fewer,” said Pakleppa, calling for the government to approve more of the measures agreed in September.

Schubert-Raab, who is also president of the ZDB, said firms still lack certainty.

“Our industry is not a greyhound track — it takes between two to three years for a property to go from the planning stage to being ready for occupancy,” he says. “People wanting to build need security. Without it, nobody will invest.[/quote]

[sudden and sharp]

La Policía investiga ya el ataque a Vidal-Quadras como un atentado terrorista
https://elpais.com/espana/2023-11-11/la-policia-investiga-ya-el-ataque-a-vidal-quadras-como-un-atentado-terrorista.html
La Audiencia Nacional, órgano judicial competente para este delito, estudia si asume el caso tras centrarse las pesquisas en la pista iraní





En ElPaís...

[Benzino Napaloni]

La Policía investiga ya el ataque a Vidal-Quadras como un atentado terrorista
https://elpais.com/espana/2023-11-11/la-policia-investiga-ya-el-ataque-a-vidal-quadras-como-un-atentado-terrorista.html
La Audiencia Nacional, órgano judicial competente para este delito, estudia si asume el caso tras centrarse las pesquisas en la pista iraní





En ElPaís...

Ya se daba por hecho que habían sido los iraníes.

Fuente: un comentario de Menéame recordando que si la derecha no estaba hablando del tema es porque no habían sido "los rojos" y no interesaba sacar el tema.

Esta "regla" funciona bastante bien y se vio cuando un criajo le rompió las gafas a Rajoy. Cuando se supo que era un familiar suyo de "familia bien" pero un poco dado a los canutos, de repente en Intereconomía los tertulianos cambiaron de conversación.

[Derby]

https://www.barrons.com/articles/home-prices-could-come-down-what-it-would-take-for-an-ugly-slide-a773cfa5

Home Prices Could Come Down. What It Would Take for an Ugly Slide.

Home prices keep going up, defying mortgage rates at 23-year highs and a housing market that hasn’t been this unaffordable since the 1980s. Everything looks steady on the surface but prolonged national U.S. home price declines could be around the corner for the first time in more than a decade, according to one housing expert.

A few specific shocks could spark the decline. If more sellers list and buyers postpone searches because they have been shut out by high costs, supply would finally outstrip demand. Economic surprises like a recession or significant layoffs could shake consumer confidence. Such uncertainties add to the housing market’s woes, and the results would ripple through the U.S. economy by slowing the accumulation of household wealth and stunting consumer spending, an important driver of growth.

Affordable homeownership had long been considered an achievable cornerstone of the American dream, and now that role is increasingly in question, says Susan Wachter, a real estate and finance professor at the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania. “This has long-term implications for the economy, prosperity, and security.”

Housing market bears have been predicting significant home price declines since the pandemic began. They largely haven’t panned out, as the number of buyers searching for homes have overwhelmed the available supply. This past spring, prices dipped less than 1% from the year before, according to the national S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Index, but then quickly resumed their climb to new highs.

Even as monetary policy has tightened, home prices have broadly held up. Prices in more than 80% of roughly 200 U.S. metropolitan areas gained in the third quarter despite record-low national home affordability, the National Association of Realtors said on Nov. 9.

That’s one reason Matthew Walsh, a Moody’s Analytics housing economist, expects prices to slump in the second half of next year for the first time in more than a decade. “Right now, the housing market is extremely, extremely unaffordable,” said Walsh. He estimates prices will fall between 3% and 4% in 2024’s fourth quarter from the year ago quarter.

A sustained decline in 2024 isn’t the consensus among housing economists. Several industry forecasts based on home price indexes expect prices to broadly keep rising next year. But the supply and demand dynamics underpinning this year’s home price gains are far from normal—and changing conditions could flip the market.

With huge costs and mortgage rates recently inching close to 8%, a buyer would need to devote more than 40% of their income to monthly payments, according to ICE Mortgage Technology—the largest percentage since 1984.

Mortgage rates, which typically move with the 10-year Treasury yield, are another wild card for demand. Rates have retreated as Treasury yields slumped but that doesn’t mean they won’t climb higher again. Wall Street is betting that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates steady through the end of this year, and then cut in 2024—although Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said on Nov. 9 that he would consider another increase if inflation stays high and economic growth remains strong. If that happens, Treasury yields could rise further, bringing mortgage rates along for the ride.

Buyers, of course, don’t have to buy—even if they’re approaching the age when they would typically make such purchases. Renting is looking appealing as a deluge of new apartments and condos come on the market. Rents have cooled from their dramatic gains earlier in the pandemic, with U.S. rents down 1.2% from the year-ago period in October, according to ApartmentList. The run-up in home purchase costs earlier this year made the monthly cost of buying a home with a 5% down payment more expensive than renting, according to a Zillow analysis provided to Barron’s in August.

Household balance sheets grew during the pandemic—but rising loan and credit delinquencies in the third quarter highlights the one-two punch of tighter monetary policy and inflation. Should unemployment rise, prospective buyers could feel too uncertain—with their jobs, their finances, and home prices in general—to take the plunge. Mortgage delinquencies remain below prepandemic levels but are rising, a trend that bears watching next year.

Low inventory of homes for sale has kept prices high, even as rising prices and rates have whittled down demand. For prices to fall, more homes would need to hit the market. The financial incentive to stay put as long as mortgage rates remain well above historic lows, known as the mortgage rate lock-in effect, was often the explanation for scarce listings in 2023 that propped up prices. But the impact of the lock-in reasoning may not be lasting. A recent Fannie Mae survey of homeowners found that many respondents who plan to stay in their homes for longer than expected cited various reasons besides low mortgage rates including proximity to family.

Falling prices wouldn’t be uniform—and some areas with particularly limited housing supply might not see declines at all. Of all the metropolitan areas evaluated by CoreLogic in September, those most at-risk of a home price decline over the next 12 months include Youngstown, Ohio; Cape Coral, Fla.; Spokane, Wash.; West Palm Beach, Fla.; and Deltona, Fla.   

Price drops could also vary based on the size of the home. While larger and more expensive homes are typically a more discretionary purchase, smaller entry-level homes attract a range of buyers, from price-constrained first-timers to cash-wielding downsizers. That means prices in this range could stay firmer than larger or more expensive homes. D.R. Horton (ticker: DHI), the nation’s largest home builder, said it expects to sell smaller homes next year as affordability headwinds persist.

For most homeowners content to hold on to their properties for the long run, price declines might have little obvious impact. The typical U.S. home value is more than 40% higher than it was before the pandemic, according to Zillow. Even buyers who purchased their homes at the zenith of housing market mania in June 2021 have enjoyed a typical 17% home value increase.

Those who bought more recently may have more anxiety about falling prices. Other who were inclined to buy could decide to take a breather, says Realtor.com Chief Economist Danielle Hale.  (Barron’s parent company, News Corp, owns Move, which runs real estate listings site Realtor.com and Move.com.) 

“When prices are falling, if people believe it’s going to be a sustained decline, they’re going to lean more toward waiting rather than hurrying and buying,” she says.