PPCC: Pisitófilos Creditófagos. Otoño 2023

[Derby]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-11-24/china-s-belt-and-road-eyes-smaller-projects-more-use-of-yuan

China’s Belt and Road Eyes Smaller Projects, More Use of Yuan

China said it would prioritize small projects and push for greater use of the Chinese currency through its Belt and Road Initiative, as President Xi Jinping looks to inject new life into his flagship investment program amid a slowing domestic economy and global skepticism over the project’s benefits.

China will “give priority for the ‘small and beautiful’ projects, focus on those with small investments, quick impact, as well as sound economic, social and environmental benefits,” according to a government document laying out the 10-year vision for Xi’s “project of the century” published Friday*.

The global infrastructure and trade initiative drew an estimated $1 trillion in the decade since it was launched in 2013. But momentum has tapered off in recent years as the pandemic and China’s slowdown disrupted the global economy. Beijing has also faced accusations of being an irresponsible lender driving countries to default.

The statement was released by a government body that studies BRI-related planning and policies and coordinates efforts to implement the initiative. It reaffirmed the project’s recent shift from massive infrastructure projects.

The average BRI deal size fell to $392 million in the first half of this year, 48% smaller than its 2018 peak, according to think tank Green Finance & Development Center. In a forum marking the initiative’s 10th anniversary last month, Chinese officials emphasized sustainable debt and greener, more cost-effective projects.

A More Global Yuan

China also plans to promote internationalization of yuan in BRI projects, according to the document.

China will steadily push forward the use of local currencies in bilateral cooperations with BRI countries, and “encourage greater use of yuan in overseas investment by financial institutions,” the document reads.

Repeating a pledge it made as early as 2015, Beijing said it would support foreign governments and companies with high credit ratings to sell yuan-denominated bonds in China. Meanwhile, qualified Chinese financial institutions and firms will be encouraged to sell bonds in yuan and foreign currencies abroad, with the funds raised to be invested in projects in BRI countries.

Such measures could expand international demand for the yuan, such as by creating channels where foreign investors can invest their holdings of the Chinese currency in, as Beijing presses ahead with its ambition to boost the yuan’s global role.

*http://www.news.cn/politics/2023-11/24/c_1129991247.htm ...está en chino 

[Derby]

https://www.ft.com/content/f574a3af-fec2-41ed-b093-40bc9b20bdd2

Argentina’s Milei backs away from dollarisation as central bank pick rejects role

Libertarian president-elect signals approach in keeping with ‘market situation’

The man named to lead Argentina’s central bank by libertarian president-elect Javier Milei has turned down the job over policy differences, amid signs that the South American nation’s maverick next leader is backing away from his flagship policy of dollarising the sickly economy.

Emilio Ocampo, an economic history professor and former investment banker, was the leading advocate within Milei’s team of dumping the Argentine peso in favour of the US dollar. The author of a recent paper advocating dollarisation, he had been working on a blueprint to implement the plan after the new government takes office on December 10.

Milei, an admirer of Donald Trump, had said during the election campaign that Ocampo would head the central bank with a mission to close it down, adding as recently as September that dollarising the economy and shutting the bank were “not negotiable”.

But a source close to Ocampo confirmed on Thursday night local news reports that he would no longer accept the post.

“The only reason for Ocampo to be at the [central bank] was to dollarise,” the source said. “He was never going to the central bank to implement someone else’s plan, which he doesn’t agree with.” Ocampo and Milei’s team declined to comment.

Scrapping the peso, which Milei said in an October interview was worth “less than excrement”, and “blowing up” the central bank were central to the bold plan he pitched during his campaign as a way to revitalise Argentina’s economy, slash triple-digit annual inflation and repair the public finances.

The TV economist has vowed to “take a chainsaw to the state” to balance the budget and has also promised widespread privatisation.

But Milei said in an interview on Wednesday night that while he liked Ocampo’s plan, “we need to see whether the market situation allows a solution like the one Emilio proposes, and whether he is prepared to implement a plan which is not the one he had originally planned”.

Milei’s office said on social media site X on Friday that the closure of the central bank was a “non-negotiable matter” despite “false rumours that have been spread”, without mentioning dollarisation.

Milei has not yet confirmed an alternative pick for central bank chief but local media reports have said that Demian Reidel, who served as a vice-president at the institution under then-president Mauricio Macri, is being considered.

The key role of economy minister is another position not yet filled. When discussing possible appointments to the post in his Wednesday interview, Milei praised Luis Caputo, a former head of trading for Latin America at JPMorgan in the 1990s who later worked at Deutsche Bank.

Caputo was finance minister from 2017 to 2018 under the centre-right administration of Macri, who used to describe him as a “Messi of finance”, in reference to Argentina’s star footballer.

While at the ministry Caputo oversaw the issue of a 100-year sovereign bond at the peak of investor enthusiasm for Argentina, an instrument scrapped by the current Peronist government after it defaulted.

He ran the central bank for a few months in 2018 before resigning amid differences with the IMF over the conditions it set for its record-breaking $57bn bailout of Argentina that year.

Caputo is “a person who is able to do the job, without any doubt”, Milei said. “He has the necessary expertise to sort out the monetary problem and give it a financial market solution.”

Milei stopped short of naming Caputo to the post and local news reports say the former minister has yet to make a final decision on whether to take the job.

Local financial markets are showing increasing signs of stress as Milei works to finalise the key economy portfolios ahead of his inauguration on December 10.

The central bank is struggling to find buyers for short-term peso-denominated debt that it issues to suck local currency out of the system, signalling that its efforts to contain inflation are flagging in the face of market uncertainty.

The dollar was trading at about 1,020 pesos on the black market on Thursday, almost triple the officially fixed rate of 364 to the dollar.

Milei’s biggest challenge is to dismantle an elaborate web of price and currency controls spun by the outgoing Peronist administration without triggering hyperinflation and economic collapse.

[Derby]

https://www.siliconrepublic.com/machines/eu-india-semiconductor-partnership-deal-research-innovation-supply-chain

EU signs semiconductor deal with India to boost chip innovation

Internal markets chief Thierry Breton said the EU deal with India will strengthen the bloc’s ‘resilience in the new geopolitics’ of semiconductor supply chains.

(...)In a memorandum of understanding signed today (24 November) by EU internal markets commissioner Thierry Breton and Ashwini Vaishnaw, the Indian minister for railways, communications, electronics and IT, the two jurisdictions agreed to share “experiences, best practices and information” on their respective semiconductor ecosystems.

As part of the deal, the EU and India will identify areas for collaboration in R&D among universities, businesses and research organisations, while also promoting skills, workforce development and investment in the semiconductor space.

They will also ensure a “level playing field” in the sector, including by sharing information on granted public subsidies. This will be done under the framework of an EU-India Trade and Technology Council, the second such bilateral forum for the EU.

“Chips are vital for our economies, and we are strengthening our resilience in the new geopolitics of semiconductor supply chains,” said Breton, who spearheaded the Chips Act to made Europe a semiconductor powerhouse.

“I am glad we will continue to cooperate with India, a key partner, on trade and technology issues to overcome supply chain challenges. In the longer term, our cooperation on research and skills will be essential to strengthen our resilience.”

Věra Jourová, EU vice-president for values and transparency, said of the latest partnership with India that semiconductors “power the green and digital transition”.

“They are also crucial to our economic security and the competitiveness of EU industry and its economy more broadly. Signing this agreement with India, a trusted and dynamic partner with complementary strengths, will foster innovation in this important area,” she added.

[Derby]

https://www.reuters.com/technology/ecb-chief-lagarde-admits-her-son-lost-crypto-cash-2023-11-24/

ECB chief Lagarde admits her son lost crypto cash

FRANKFURT, Nov 24 (Reuters) - No one is a prophet in their own land, including European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde, who admitted on Friday that her son lost "almost all" of his investments in crypto assets, despite copious warnings.

Lagarde has long railed against cryptocurrencies, calling them speculative, worthless and a tool often used by criminals for illicit activity.

"He ignored me royally, which is his privilege," Lagarde told a town hall with students in Frankfurt. "And he lost almost all the money that he had invested.".

"It wasn't a lot but he lost it all, he lost about 60% of it," Lagarde added. "So when I then had another talk with him about it, he reluctantly accepted that I was right."

The ECB chief has two sons in their mid-30s but did not say which one she was referring to.

The ECB has called for global regulation of crypto assets both to protect consumers who are unaware of the risk and to close a loophole that can be used to channel funding to terrorists or lets criminals launder cash.(...)

[Negrule]

Es en catalán, pero es interesante, lo cuelgo para quien lo quiera leer.

¿Milei, neoliberal?

El terme neoliberalisme és d’ús freqüent en el debat públic. També en diverses disciplines de les ciències socials (ciència política, sociologia). Ara ens farem un fart de llegir-lo en relació amb el nou president argentí, Javier Milei. Però no està del tot clar què vol dir; això sí, indica quelcom molt dolent, quasi tant com el dimoni. Però, així com molta gent es pregunta si el dimoni existeix, podem preguntar-nos-ho amb el neoliberalisme.

El terme neoliberalisme és atribuït a Alexander Rüstow (1885-1963), acadèmic alemany que el 1938 proposava un nou liberalisme a mig camí entre el laissez faire del liberalisme clàssic i l’estatisme de nazis, feixistes i comunistes. El terme (com tants altres encunyats en el període nazi) s’esvaeix, fins que el recupera el filòsof francès Michael Foucault (1926-1984), que exercí (i manté) un efecte imant sobre l’extrema esquerra dels països mediterranis, amb posicions com el suport a la revolució dels aiatol·làs a l’Iran (pel seu caràcter antiimperialista i anticapitalista) o a la legalització del sexe consentit entre adults i menors. En unes conferències al Col·legi de França el 1978-79 (The Birth of Biopolitics: Lectures at the Collège de France) ens ofereix aquesta aproximació al neoliberalisme: “El neoliberalisme no pot ser, per tant, identificat amb el laissez faire, sinó amb vigilància permanent, activitat i intervenció”. És a dir, intervencionisme per donar continuïtat al capitalisme.

Com ben bé tots els constructes estructuralistes (encara que Foucault no es reconeixia en aquest grup) i postmoderns, són inintel·ligibles per tothom, tret d’una avantguarda intel·lectual que "ja s'ha despertat". I acaben sent repetits com a "mantra" al qual cadascú pot donar el significat que vulgui. Aquesta és la situació —ja fa temps— del terme neoliberal, que és usat per indicar “a la dreta” de qui l’usa. I s’ha acabat identificant el neoliberalisme amb les propostes de minimitzar la intervenció de l’estat de l’Escola de Chicago, de les quals es predica la seva hegemonia en les darreres dècades.

La contradicció és espectacular: l’Escola de Chicago proposa la minimització de la intervenció de l’estat... perquè aquest serveix als interessos econòmics dominants. Sí, ho ha llegit bé: molt similar en diagnòstic a la visió marxista. Aquesta fou una política seguida en els dos únics països de l’OCDE que han aplicat el receptari de Chicago al peu de la lletra: Xile, a la dècada del 1970, amb la dictadura de Pinochet; el Regne Unit als anys vuitanta, amb el govern Thatcher en un sistema democràtic. No tant en el cas de Reagan als EUA: tot i la seua prèdica sobre el lliure mercat als anys 80, va fer menys desregulació i més dèficit públic del que Jimmy Carter havia fet a finals dels setanta.

La consideració de les darreres dècades com d’hegemonia neoliberal es basa en una visió reduccionista i simplista de la intervenció pública en l’economia. És cert que el paper dels governs com a productors de béns i serveis s’ha reduït des de la dècada del 1980, tant pel que fa als governs centrals o federals, que van vendre moltes empreses públiques en les dues darreres dècades del segle XX, com pels governs subcentrals, que han contractat a empreses privades serveis abans produïts directament per l’administració. Una de les conseqüències d’aquest procés de disminució del paper dels governs com a productors de béns i serveis ha estat l’augment de la intervenció reguladora, via normes i contractes, sobre els sectors amb problemes rellevants de competència i sobre els serveis públics en general. Propietat de mitjans de producció i regulació de mercats són mecanismes alternatius d’intervenció dels governs sobre l’economia, com ens revelava clarament l’anàlisi de la política econòmica nazi a la dècada del 1930.

Més encara, un altre mecanisme d’intervenció dels governs és la despesa pública. I entre els països de l’OCDE, en el Regne Unit la despesa pública en els darrers 40 anys s’ha reduït: del 47% el 1980 al 38% el 2019 –dades d’anys anteriors tenen la distorsió de l’augment de la despesa pel covid–. Ara bé, en estats com França, Itàlia i, encara més, Espanya, ha augmentat notablement. També, en menor grau, als EUA, el Japó, àdhuc a Xile des del 1980. Cal mencionar l’altra excepció que trobem a Dinamarca, país de l’OCDE amb més despesa pública el 1980 (53%), que baixà al 50% el 2019 (per darrere de França i altres escandinaus).

La dimensió global de la intervenció pública sobre l’economia no ha baixat en les darreres dècades. S’ha alterat la seua composició segons eines d’intervenció usades: menys producció directa, més regulació i més despesa pública. La consideració del neoliberalisme com a reducció de la intervenció pública sobre l’economia contrasta amb el que ha passat en les darreres dècades, amb la possible excepció britànica. Per això, la proliferació del terme neoliberalisme en el debat polític ha acabat buidant-lo de sentit precís; ningú sap ben bé què vol dir. I, generalment, la freqüència en el seu ús és inversament proporcional a la comprensió del seu significat. Així doncs, ¿la política econòmica de Milei serà neoliberal? Està per veure. El més segur, en tot cas, és que ni ell ni molts dels que li penjaran aquesta etiqueta potser no ho tenen del tot clar.

https://www.ara.cat/opinio/germa-bel-milei-neoliberal_129_4858772.html?utm_source=twitter&utm_campaign=hootsuite&utm_medium=social

[CHOSEN]

Al progenitor si el mercado le dice que su vivienda que compró por 200k hace 30 años ahora vale 500k, que esperamos que haga el progenitor?

Mejor vendérsela al hijo de otro por 500k, que vendérsela a tu propio hijo por 500k.
Eso es evidente.
 

[Derby]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-11-24/lagarde-says-ecb-can-now-observe-impact-of-all-its-rate-hikes

Lagarde Says ECB Can Now Observe Impact of Its Rate Hikes

Central-bank chief addresses Bundesbank event in Frankfurt
Rate was kept on hold at 4% at latest meeting in October

The European Central Bank is now at a point where it can pause and assess the impact of its tightening, according to President Christine Lagarde.

“We have already done a lot,” Lagarde said. “Given the amount of ammunition we have used, we can observe very attentively the components of our lives like salaries, profits, like fiscal, like geopolitical developments and certainly the way in which our ammunition is impacting our economic life to decide how long we have to stay there and what decision we have to make — up or down.”(...)

[tomasjos]

Vaya, vaya, vaya...

https://www.elmundo.es/internacional/2023/11/24/6560cc58fc6c83d2618b4583.html

[CHOSEN]

-Ni autonomiazo.
-Ni pensionazo.
-Ni ladrillazo.

Sino todo lo contrario:
-Los nacionalismos más fuertes que nunca.
-La pension media por encima del SMI.
-Un 30% menos de vivienda disponible en alquiler.

[Derby]

https://www.reuters.com/world/china-offers-visa-free-entry-citizens-france-germany-italy-2023-11-24/

China offers visa-free entry for citizens of France, Germany, Italy

BEIJING, Nov 24 (Reuters) - China will temporarily exempt citizens of France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, Spain and Malaysia from needing visas to visit the world's second-largest economy in a bid to give a boost to post-pandemic tourism.

From Dec. 1 to Nov. 30 next year, citizens of those countries entering China for business, tourism, visiting relatives and friends, or transiting for no more than 15 days, will not need a visa, a foreign ministry spokesperson said on Friday.(...)

[asustadísimos]

[Con el banco central pasa como con la Seguridad Social: como hay actividades e ingresos y gastos que les son propios, son entes contables separables de la contabilidad presupuestaria del Estado por razones operativas.

Es muy campanudo decir que 'cierras' el banco central, cuando en realidad, lo que haces solo es deshacer la ficción de independencia del banco central respecto del Estado y, en particular, de sus servicios de Hacienda y Deuda (Tesoro).

Es tan campanudo como decir que reduces el Estado cuando solo reconcentras los mismos ministerios en media docena de personas, que seguirán teniendo los mismos ministros, ahora subministros —en realidad, has aumentado el Estado por arriba—.

Así es todo en esta estafa política del (falso) liberalismo actual.]

[asustadísimos]

[El salariazo-autonomizazo-pensionazo-ladrillazo era lo que avisábamos que venía tras el pinchazo 2006-2010 y, en efecto, se produjo en la segunda legislatura de Zapatero y, sobre todo, en la primera de Rajoy. El autonomizazo es lo más difícil de entender porque se centró en el desguace de las Cajas de Ahorros, que dio lugar, entre infinidad de escenas dramáticas, al suicidio de Blesa, al encarcelamiento de Rato y a la diada separatista de 2012 que culminó con las responsabilidades que ahora se van a amnistiar. Ahora la situación no tiene nada que ver: SOLO TOCA LADRILLAZO.]

[Derby]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-11-24/wall-street-goes-all-in-on-cross-market-meltup-as-bears-retreat#xj4y7vzkg

Wall Street Throws Caution to the Wind to Keep Up With Stock Rally

    Junk bonds and small caps rally as hedging demand evaporates
    Traders bet Fed done raising rates, will achieve soft landing

It’s the major casualty of November’s sizzling stock rally: Investor caution.

Thanks to what’s shaping up to be one of the biggest market meltups over the last 100 years, demand for protective strategies has all but evaporated. Professional and retail traders are battling to keep pace with an S&P 500 that has advanced almost 9% this month alone. Erstwhile defensive refuges — everything from inflation-protected bonds to cash ETFs and bearish options — are being jettisoned. In their place: Surging appetite for junk bonds and small-cap equities.

Powering it all is belief that the Federal Reserve is done raising interest rates and will start cutting them in 2024 — speculation that has portfolios split 60/40 between shares and bonds on track for their best month since 2020.

Minutes published Tuesday reinforced unity among money policymakers in proceeding “carefully” when it comes to the interest-rate path as they seek to rein in inflation back down to their 2% target.

“The Fed’s willingness to pause here and look through the strong data is allowing soft landing optimism to take over,” said Priya Misra, portfolio manager at JPMorgan Asset Management. Yet “the lack of hedging reflects complacency on inflation and living on a prayer.”



The S&P 500 jumped 1% for its fourth straight weekly advance, a period that has featured just three down sessions in 19 trading days. The benchmark is on track for a November gain that surpasses all but five since 1928. The Russell 2000, which investors look to for cues on the health of the economy, also edged higher by 0.5% this week. The Bloomberg 60/40 index has gained almost 7% this month alone.

Global equity funds posted their biggest two-week inflow since February 2022, according to EPFR Global data. Stock exchange-traded funds have pulled in $43 billion so far in November and are headed for their second best month this year, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Two ETFs tracking cash-like funds saw $1.1 billion of outflows this week and investors have pulled $700 million out of the iShares TIPS ETF over three weeks.

Hedging demand has fallen sharply with the cost to protect against a market selloff down by around 10%, or one-standard deviation, tumbling to the lowest ever in data starting in 2013. Demand for tail-risk hedges that pay out in an equity fall as precipitous as 30% has also dropped and is hovering around the lowest level since March.

“There has been absolutely no demand for hedging — the cost of protection using various metrics are all near lows looking out five years,” said Amy Wu Silverman, head of derivatives strategy at RBC Capital Markets. “Additionally, volatility continues to be suppressed in our market due to volatility selling strategies.”



Meanwhile, Wall Street firms are busy predicting more gains to come. Helped by positive sentiment and resilient valuations, Lori Calvasina at RBC Capital Markets forecasts the S&P 500 will jump to a record high next year, as does Bank of America Corp.’s Savita Subramanian. The latter is optimistic because firms, she said, will learn to adapt to the higher rate environment.

The enthusiasm has even prompted hedge funds to hold their most concentrated wagers on US equities in 22 years with most popular bets in megacap tech. Mutual funds also increased their exposure to the sector in the third quarter, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc.

Of those that capitulated include a pool of rules-based money known as commodity trading advisers. After sitting on the sidelines in late October, CTAs bought more than $60 billion worth of global equities in the last two weeks, according to Nicolas Le Roux of US Group AG, who expects flows to continue though at a slower pace.



Not everyone is buying. Marija Veitmane, senior multi-asset strategist at State Street Global Markets, is still concerned about recession risks and inflationary pressures, particularly on the services side. Americans feel it too. US short-term inflation expectations climbed to a seven-month high while longer-run price views remained at levels not seen since 2011.

“Current economic data still does not justify the current aggressive policy normalization,” said Veitmane. “Thus, rates need to stay higher for longer, which will most likely push us into recession which means that earnings expectation are too high. So, no we are not backing this rally.”

To Peter Chatwell, head of global macro strategies trading at Mizuho International Plc., the fact that ratey cuts may be coming is no sustainable reason for elated market sentiment.

“If the Fed is cutting rates because of a recession, this is very unlikely to be supportive of stocks,” he said. “It seems that stocks are in a sweet spot which will require a major earnings increase to allow this level to be maintained.”

[Noodles]

-Ni autonomiazo.
-Ni pensionazo.
-Ni ladrillazo.

Sino todo lo contrario:
-Los nacionalismos más fuertes que nunca.
-La pension media por encima del SMI.
-Un 30% menos de vivienda disponible en alquiler.

[Derby]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-11-24/caputo-tells-bankers-argentina-dollarization-is-medium-term-goal#xj4y7vzkg

Argentina Dollarization Is Medium-Term Goal, Caputo Tells Bankers

Caputo says Milei won’t lift capital controls right away
Milei’s pivot away from dramatic promises welcomed by markets

The government of Javier Milei won’t lift currency controls immediately after taking office on Dec. 10, while keeping dollarization as a medium-term goal for Argentina, a key member of the president-elect’s team told bankers Friday, according to two people familiar with the conversation.

Luis Caputo, who is leading Milei’s economic team during the transition, told banking executives in Buenos Aires the new government’s focus will be reaching a fiscal surplus in 2024, the people said, asking not to be named discussing private conversations. The meeting, which the Wall Street veteran used to introduce the main lines of Milei’s economic plan, included about 30 people between advisers and bank officials, they added.(...)