PPCC: Pisitófilos Creditófagos. Invierno 2024

[Benzino Napaloni]

https://www.ft.com/content/79320a70-ccae-4568-8c8b-948e813a2e75

Fed officials say rates could remain high ‘for some time’

Most Federal Reserve officials want to keep borrowing costs high “for some time”, adding to doubts that the US central bank is poised to begin cutting interest rates as early as March.

Officials expressed growing optimism that Fed was succeeding in its quest to quell inflation, according to the minutes, but were careful not to commit to an immediate loosening of monetary policy.

Minutes from the December meeting, when officials surprised markets by indicating they expected the bank to cut by a quarter point three times over the course of this year, showed that while most rate-setters expected to cut this year, there was “an unusually elevated degree of uncertainty” in the outlook for the economy.

Unos diciendo que la FED ya descuenta tres bajadas este año. Ahora dicen que se van a mantener altos un tiempo.

Decídanse ya .

Será interesante ver cómo va creciendo la ira "porque nos están ahogando con los tipos altos".

[Derby]

https://www.axios.com/2024/01/03/cash-home-sales-manhattan-record-high

All-cash home sales in Manhattan hit record high

Share of Manhattan homes bought with cash



The share of all-cash buyers in the Manhattan real estate market hit a new high in the fourth quarter of 2023, according to a report out Wednesday from appraiser Miller Samuel Inc. and brokerage Douglas Elliman Real Estate.

Why it matters: It shows that even markets long associated with cash buyers aren't immune to the impact of sky-high mortgage rates, said Jonathan Miller, CEO of Miller Samuel, who's been tracking the data since 2014.

*Cash buyers, typically the super wealthy, usually make up about half the market in Manhattan, he said. (Though that dynamic changed a bit when rates got very low in the early 2020s.)

By the numbers: The average sale price of a Manhattan apartment rose to $2 million in Q4, up 3% from the previous quarter.

*But luxury sale prices climbed 12% over the same period.

What to watch: Mortgage rates. They're falling — the average is now 6.6%, down from highs last year around 8%. That'll boost the number of sales to "mere mortals" who need a loan, Miller said.

[Derby]

ttps://www.reuters.com/markets/us/us-bankruptcies-surged-18-2023-seen-rising-again-2024-report-2024-01-03/

US bankruptcies surged 18% in 2023 and seen rising again in 2024 -report

Jan 3 (Reuters) - U.S. bankruptcy filings surged by 18% in 2023 on the back of higher interest rates, tougher lending standards and the continued runoff of pandemic-era backstops, data published Wednesday showed, although insolvency case volumes remain well below the level seen before the outbreak of COVID-19.

Total bankruptcy filings - encompassing commercial and personal insolvencies - rose to 445,186 last year from 378,390 in 2022, according to data from bankruptcy data provider Epiq AACER.

Commercial Chapter 11 business reorganization filings shot up by 72% to 6,569 from 3,819 the year before, the report said. Consumer filings rose 18% to 419,55 from 356,911 in 2022.

For the final month of the year, total filings dipped to 34,447 from 37,860 in November, though they were up 16% from a year earlier.

Bankruptcy case counts are expected to keep climbing in 2024, though there is still some distance to go to top the 757,816 bankruptcies filed in 2019, the year before the pandemic struck.

"As anticipated, we saw new filings in 2023 increase momentum over 2022 with a significant number of commercial filers leading the expected increase and normalization back to pre-pandemic bankruptcy volumes," said Michael Hunter, vice president of Epiq AACER. "We expect the increase in number of consumer and commercial filers seeking bankruptcy protection to continue in 2024 given the runoff of pandemic stimulus, increased cost of funds, higher interest rates, rising delinquency rates, and near historic levels of household debt."

Household debt did, in fact, stand at a record high $17.3 trillion at the end of the third quarter, according to data from the New York Federal Reserve. Delinquency rates are also edging higher, that data showed, but they also remain below rates from just before the pandemic.

Financial conditions for businesses and households have tightened significantly over the last two years thanks to the Fed's aggressive interest rate hikes to contain inflation. Rates on mortgage loans, for instance, in the second half of last year shot to their highest since the start of the century.

That said, borrowing costs and overall finiancial conditions eased over the course of the fourth quarter of 2023 after the Fed signaled it was coming to the end of its rate-hike cycle, and last month Fed officials themselves indicated they expect to be cutting rates this year.

[Derby]

https://twitter.com/Rafaelpampillon/status/1742610168397877597

[Derby]

https://www.ft.com/content/a68b2e5a-f104-4d05-8d94-b7dff0b18c12

German inflation rises to 3.8% in blow to rate-cut hopes

Energy subsidy phaseout pushes up prices in EU’s largest economy ahead of closely watched eurozone figures

German inflation accelerated to its fastest rate for three months in December, casting doubt over investors’ hopes that the European Central Bank will start cutting interest rates as early as March.

Inflation in Europe’s largest economy rose at an annual rate of 3.8 per cent in December, up from 2.3 per cent a month earlier, according to the harmonised index of consumer prices released by the federal statistical agency on Thursday.

The reduction of government subsidies on gas, electricity and food that began last year has triggered a re-acceleration of annual inflation in much of Europe.

German energy prices rose 4.1 per cent in the year to December, a reversal from a 4.5 per cent annual decline a month earlier.

Marco Wagner, an economist at German lender Commerzbank, warned German inflation could accelerate further in January due to tax increases and reduced subsidies, predicting it would “ultimately stabilise at 3 per cent” over the course of this year.

French figures released earlier on Thursday also showed inflation rising to 4.1 per cent in the year to December, up from 3.9 per cent in November, reflecting an uptick in price growth for energy and services.

Consumer price growth in the eurozone had been slowing for six months, bringing it close to the ECB’s 2 per cent target. Bond and equity markets rallied in the final weeks of 2023 as investors bet borrowing costs would start to fall in the spring.

But figures for the overall eurozone, due on Friday, are expected to show inflation rose from 2.4 per cent in November to 3 per cent in December, ending six months of consecutive falls.

Carsten Brzeski, global head of macro at Dutch bank ING, said both December’s rise in German inflation and the prospect of additional price pressures from tax changes in January “strengthen the ECB’s point that there will not be any rate cuts for at least the next five months, so June at the earliest”. (...)

[Derby]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-01-04/hk-halts-residential-commercial-land-sales-in-weak-market

Hong Kong Halts Residential, Commercial Land Sales in Weak Market

*A new supply of 11,530 homes for financial year ended in March
*First time in years for no residential land sales: Linn

The Hong Kong government is not selling any residential or commercial land plots in the first quarter of the year, as weak market sentiment dampens developer demand.

“In recent months, we have witnessed that the market is not too keen in tendering for residential sites,” Secretary for Development Bernadette Linn said in a press conference on Thursday. There were failed tenders and the recent successful tender had only one bid, she added.(...)

[Derby]

https://mishtalk.com/economics/why-predictions-of-when-the-price-of-rent-will-fall-have-been-wrong/

Why Predictions of When the Price of Rent Will Fall Have Been Wrong

Economists and others have been predicting monthly increases in rent would stall or fall for two years. Year-over-year rates are down, but monthly increases are still big.


Five measures of year-over-year rent increases, various sources described below, Chart by Mish

Chart Notes

*NTR is the New Tenant Rent index from the Cleveland Fed. Lower and Upper are confidence bounds. These are new leases only.

*CPI rent is Rent of Primary residence as measured by the BLS. These are new and existing leases.

*OER is Owners’ Equivalent Rent a measure of rent for people who own their own houses. The index measures rent of houses unfurnished without utilities. It should and does track Rent of Primary Residence. These are new and existing leases.

*Zori is the Zillow Observed Rent Index. These are new leases only.

*Apt List is the Apartment List Rent Index. These are new leases only. This index is not seasonally adjusted, the rest are.

Everyone is attempting to calculate when the CPI will head lower based on when rent of primary residence and OER head lower. The idea is based off lead times of new leases.

The BLS smooths things out over 12 months and seasonally adjusts the numbers too. But other than Apartment List, all of the numbers are seasonally adjusted.(...)

Are Rents Poised to Drop? Stabilize? What?

I don’t know, nor does anyone else.

Year-over-year rents have peaked, but a lot of that is easy year-over-year comparisons.

Looking ahead, I am finally in the camp that we will break the string of big rent increases. Previously I had been a doubter. However, all such expectations have been wrong for two years.

[Derby]

https://www.ft.com/content/bb2a1ea3-d629-407e-b405-d5f009fc08e6

Is private credit a systemic risk?

Betteridge’s Law strikes again

Back in November, UBS chair Colm Kelleher predicted that the next financial crisis would happen in shadow banking — delightfully infuriating Apollo’s Marc Rowan, speaking at the same conference later that day.

You can see both sessions here. It was something Apollo’s chief executive clearly couldn’t let go, going off on one at a Goldman Sachs conference in early December after being questioned innocuously about regulation:

So, the Chairman of UBS was asked at the tail end of his presentation, what is the single biggest risk to financial markets? And Colm said, a blow-up in the shadow banking industry. And with that, he got off the stage.

I went on and someone said, Marc, what do you think of what Colm just said. And I said, well, let’s just go through the facts. Everything that is on a bank balance sheet is private credit. Let’s start with that.

Every dollar, every euro that moves off of a regulated bank balance sheet de-risks the system. And the room was like gasping. And I said, well, isn’t it, everything on a bank balance sheet is levered 10 to 12 times. When you move it to a mutual fund, it gets zero leverage. When you move it to an institutional client, it gets zero leverage. When you move it to a BDC [business development company], it gets 1.5 times leverage. And so on and so on and so on. So, every time you move something out of a banking system, you de-lever the system.

OK, so it’s hardly Carl Icahn vs Bill Ackman, or even Icahn vs Larry Fink, but who doesn’t love a bit of tetchy, passive-aggressive, intra-Wall Street argy-bargy?

The thing is, despite Alphaville’s copious writing on how demented the private credit boom is becoming, I’m inclined to agree with Rowan here (to a point). At least when it comes to the thesis that private credit is somehow morphing into a systemic risk.

One of the legacies of the 2008 financial crisis is the constant hunt for “the next subprime”. That’s natural, and there’s obviously been no shortage of idiocy in recent years, some of which is genuinely dangerous to the wider financial system and therefore the global economy.

And while it’s easy to laugh at shrill financial journalists like us hand-wringing about the latest Wall Street fad, a bit of excessive obsessing is actually valuable. It arguably helps keep things a little in check. And as Kelleher showed, it’s not just journalists either.

But investors losing boatloads of money is not the same as a financial crisis. In fact, trillions of dollars can evaporate, prominent investment funds be forced to gate and major financial institutions can go belly-up without a wider conflagration, as long as policymakers douse the flames rather than fan them. Viz 2022-23. Not everything is a “Lehman moment”.

Alphaville’s eyes were therefore drawn by a report published this week by Goldman Sachs’ credit analysts examining the systemic risks posed by private credit.

They note three potential channels through which it could cause wider ructions and are sceptical of them all. We’re going to quote at length here, given the importance of some of the nuances, italicising what we think are important points:

Channel #1: An abrupt rise in financial distress among private debt borrowers leading to wealth destruction and causing an economic downturn or amplifying its severity.

Given the floating rate nature of their liabilities, the prospect of Fed cuts in 2024 is a welcome development for the debt capacity of borrowers in the direct lending market. That said, the level of the base rate will likely remain elevated by the standards of the post-global financial crisis period; a backdrop that will continue to test the ability of borrowers to adapt to a higher cost of funding environment. Our baseline view has been that the risk of a spike in losses on corporate credit portfolios, including direct lending, is quite low. If anything, and as we discussed in our last Private Credit Monitor, we see several reasons why losses on direct loan portfolios will likely peak at lower levels vs. the broadly syndicated loan market.

Many observers are, however, skeptical that borrowers in private debt markets, which are for the most part small firms that have less financial flexibility than larger firms, will be able to adjust to a higher cost of funding environment without a large uptick in financial distress. We readily acknowledge that the young age of private debt markets as an asset class doesn’t allow us to infer any clues from previous cycles. That said, the broader leveraged finance markets (which include the broadly syndicated loan and HY bond markets) have been around for almost four decades and can offer some lessons. One key lesson is that spikes in defaults and losses rarely happen in a vacuum. As we showed in previous research, defaults are more coincident with recessions rather than predictive of them. This relationship suggests the existence of a common shock that typically affects both defaults and GDP growth rate as opposed to a causal link running from defaults to growth. The notion that corporate defaults can cause recessions has little empirical support when looking at the last four business cycles.

What if the usual cause-and-effect relationship between the state of the business cycle and defaults in public debt markets does not hold for the direct lending market? In other words, what if defaults and losses spike even as the economy is expanding? We don’t think such an outcome would qualify as a systemic event. The size of the direct lending market is too small ($530 billion of deployed capital) and financial leverage is low (both among GPs and LPs), two factors that greatly limit the risk of contagion from one institution to another.

Channel #2: Rising distress among asset managers fueling stress on risk intermediation and a potential fire sale of assets.

As we discussed in our most recent Private Credit Monitor, issuer concentration in direct loan portfolios is higher than in public debt market; a byproduct of the non-syndicated structure of the market as well as the absence of a tangible benchmark index (as is the case for HY bond funds). This lack of diversification makes it plausible that one or more direct lending funds could suffer significant losses. But here again, such an outcome doesn’t qualify as systemic, in our view. For one, there isn’t an expectation by end-investors nor regulatory bodies that the asset manager must absorb the losses.

Put another way, asset managers act as agents for the end investor as opposed to financial intermediaries. Because there is no obligation to share losses, the risk of contagion to other funds within the same institution or to other institutions is remote. Second, the risk that large losses on a few funds spark a wave of redemptions and a run-on private debt funds is also low. The root-cause of bank runs are maturity mismatches between assets and liabilities (i.e.: short-term deposits are used to fund longer maturity loans). This mismatch is non-existent in private debt funds which are generally targeted to “buy and hold” institutional investors.

While the past few years have seen increased participation of accredited individual investors in so called evergreen funds, these funds typically hold loans with shorter maturities, have higher cash balances and, perhaps most importantly, impose caps on redemptions.

Channel #3: Rising distress among end-investors driven by larger than expected liquidity mismatches.

While the bulk of the investor base in private debt markets is not highly leveraged, balance sheet liquidity mismatches are often viewed as a potential driver of systemic risk. The risk is that some LPs either underestimated their liquidity needs or shifted their asset allocation strategy years after committing capital to the asset class. The concern is that the redemption constraints imposed by private debt fund managers can pressure LPs balance sheets and fuel some contagion.

We think this risk is also low, considering a broad range of liquidity and capital solutions that are available to both GPs and LPs. In our view, secondary activity in the direct lending market will continue to grow, providing LPs with a valuable degree of freedom in managing shifts in balance sheet liquidity needs and asset allocation priorities. As has been the case in the private equity industry for over two decades now, new funds dedicated to secondary transactions that allow LPs to either reduce or exit their holdings will continue to grow.

While private debt markets differ from private equity markets in many aspects, the last two decades can offer some valuable clues for what the future could bring to the direct lending market. Two decades ago, outright private equity portfolio sales often involved distressed LPs and thus cleared at a significant discount to the NAV. But the last decade has seen impressive growth of the secondary market, with AUM increasing to over $500 billion as of the first quarter from $100 billion a decade earlier, according to data collected from Preqin. Rather than a solution of last resort for distressed sellers, the secondary market has become a key tool to manage multi-asset portfolios. The structure of the market has also become more balanced from a supply/demand standpoint, resulting in significant compression in NAV discounts. We think secondary direct lending will likely follow the footsteps of their private equity counterparts, as more participants enter the market.

In other words, private credit is too small and too little leveraged to cause major wider problems. When problems do arise, locked-up capital means that the pain is more contained. And if an investor does need to ditch a big private credit fund exposure, they can do so at a discount to another big institution.

Update: You can see the breakdown of investors in private credit in this GS/Preqin chart (zoomable version):



Returning to Rowan’s broader point, some of this lending is genuinely less risky (NB for the financial system as a whole!) when it is done by a shadow bank.

Even JPMorgan’s Jamie Dimon — who has griped that shadow bank rivals are “dancing in the street” — has admitted that some lending should migrate out of institutions such as his. As he put it in his annual letter to shareholders last year:

It’s always best to adjust to new reality quickly. We really don’t like crying over spilled milk, although we sometimes do. The new reality is that some things — for example, holding certain types of credit — are more efficiently done by a nonbank.

However, before Alphaville gets accused of being private credit cheerleaders, we should stress that we still think the industry is clearly in the midst of a mad boom.

Too much money has been chucked in over a short period of time, just as we are going to see the full economic impact of one of the most aggressive interest rate hiking cycles in history. Dumb stuff has clearly been going on in the shadows, and some gormless investors are going to lose a lot of money, purely because of an infatuation with the artificial smoothness of private marks over public debt markets.

Many private credit firms are going to get an awful lot of hands-on experience with workouts over the next few years. Reputations will be blotted, and some shattered. As Kelleher later nuanced at the November conference: “It will be a fiduciary crisis.”

But will it be of systemic consequence? It might be tempting fate to say this, but it’s hard to see how.

[Derby]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-01-04/buyers-shun-argentina-reconstruction-bonds-for-second-straight-week

Buyers Shun Argentina Reconstruction Bonds for Second-Straight Week

Importer bond part of Milei’s plan to unify exchange rates
Government sold some $60 million of $750 million notes offered

The Argentine Central Bank’s second auction to pay down importers’ debts owed to suppliers abroad saw another batch of disappointing results on Thursday, according to one person with direct knowledge of the matter.

The central bank sold less than $60 million out of a maximum of $750 million of notes available, the person said, requesting anonymity as the results have not been made public. It signals another setback for President Javier Milei in markets after last week saw sales of just $68 million of the $750 million offered.(...)

[tomasjos]

Un pdf lo aguanta todo pero bueno, habría que verles gobernando.

https://www.eljacobino.es/wp-content/uploads/30-PUNTOS-PILARES-IDEOLOGICOS.pdf

Promover y defender un Parque de Vivienda Pública en alquiler
suficiente en todas aquellas zonas de España donde se requiera para
asegurar que toda la ciudadanía disponga de un hogar digno y
accesible. Debe reconocerse el acceso a una vivienda digna como
derecho fundamental

Primero vamos a las europeas, a ver qué pasa. Y si sale bien vamos a por todas. Yo estoy en Izquierda Española, alias El Jacobino desde hace tres meses. Francamente creo que hay conceptos en este partido como la crítica explícita del concepto de libertad negativa, la defensa de un concepto de nación española jurídico politica y el rechazo a la concepción volkistch , así como la defensa del Estado de Bienestar, la posición geopolítica - que se deduce del punto 29- y el rechazo a la izquierda posmoderna - Podemos-, que son propios de lo que he leído de PPCC en los últimos quince años.  Lo cual, junto con una política fiscal y economica claramente estatista - socialista y de soberanía del Estado sobre los sectores estratégicos y la apuesta por la recentralización de competencias y la uniformización administrativa de España, encajan con mis ideas. En su manifiesto de 30 puntos solo hay dos con los que estoy en parte en desacuerdo, y son temas de conciencia. Pero en conjunto estoy con ellos en un 95 por ciento, que es mucho más de lo que he estado de acuerdo con ningún programa de partido desde que pueda recordar.

Ya les iré contando

[asustadísimos]

[Esta ficha sustituye a la homónima que figura en...
https://www.transicionestructural.net/index.php?topic=2594.msg217499#msg217499 ]


FICHA || LOS 5 VASOS COMUNICANTES DE LA RENTA.—

En 1.ª ronda, la distribución del PIB en rentas netas es un sistema de cinco vasos comunicantes. En el gráfico figuran las proporciones aproximadas. No se ve en él, pero cada renta neta tiene dos tramos: el conmutativamente justo y el usurario.

Nótese el orden de extracción:
— las rentas aproductivas se extraen antes que las productivas;
— las rentas inmobiliarias son las primeras que se extraen y hay que honrarlas incluso antes de empezar todo trabajo organizado en empresa;
— las pensiones se extraen reteniéndolas (cotizaciones sociales) al pagar salarios; y
— las rentas empresariales son residuales: es lo que le queda al empresariado después de la honra de las rentas aproductivas y las productivas salariales, incluidos los supersalarios de los trabajadores-directivos (en España, unos 18.000).

La Renta es el cedazo entre la Producción y el Gasto (Consumo o Ahorro).

Si la economía decae o no crece, pero se mantiene o sube el flujo de rentas financieras, todo lo que no bajen las rentas inmobiliarias tendrán que bajarlo las pensiones, si se quiere mantener el nivel de las rentas productivas. Y estos dos grupos de destinatarios de rentas aproductivas no tienen la misma combinación de propensiones al Consumo y al Ahorro: las pensiones son más productivas en 2.ª ronda y el exceso de ahorro aproductivo lastra la Producción.

Imagen para el recuerdo:

En las votaciones de los países de sistema capitalista, el electorado no opta directamente por distintos modelos de Producción o de Gasto, sino por la distribución de la Renta que querría. Las consultas electorales son macroencuestas que ofrecen información sobre la prelación de destinos de la Renta que gustaría que hubiera —lo que puede estar o no conforme con el ortograma capitalista—. «Se vota con el bolsillo» —en España, país con exceso de falso ahorro inmobiliario, «se vota con el ladrillo», como se ve en sus centros y costas—. Todo se complica cuando no hay Renta suficiente para repartir y ya no se puede traer más Renta del futuro. En estos casos, lo que desea el electorado se revela como 'Fantasías animadas de ayer y hoy'. Se evidencia su incompatibilidad con la supervivencia del sistema capitalista. Las cañas se tornan lanzas. Se pasa de 'Los días de vino y rosas' a 'Sangre, sudor y lágrimas'. Y cunde el resentimiento entre los apegados al patrón de Producción-Renta-Gasto del que el propio sistema, que es brutal, está harto.

[Derby]

Se defienden como gato panza arriba... Yo estoy de acuerdo con Asustadísimos. Además de la política monetaria sostenida (for some time) y firme (esta vez no se va a ceder) creo que será necesario un evento como detonante del cambio. Como si se tratara de un volantazo. Porque no basta con dejar de alimentar a la bestia. El inmobiliario tiene que dejar de ser un vehículo de inversión, de verse en términos de rentabilidad; y para ello tienen que bajar los precios y las rentas de alquiler. Seguir con la "estrategia" de la escasez daña la economía real. Hay que liberar la economía de esta carga para que pueda crecer de forma más saludable.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-01-05/housing-market-supply-is-scarce-across-europe-as-investors-face-barriers

Europe’s Rent Caps and Red Tape Are Threatening Housing Investment

Investors are ready to bet on residential, but a tangle of rules threatens to stymie the flow

As housing shortages cause rents to surge in major European cities, investors are queueing up to pour cash into new homes only to be thwarted by a bewildering array of hurdles.

With office and retail real estate suffering from remote-working and online-shopping trends, property investors have earmarked an additional €82 billion ($90 billion) for residential projects in Europe through 2025, according to a Savills survey. But the quagmire of rules, regulations and red tape is standing in their way.

“There is all this capital that is looking to get into Europe,” said Mark Allnutt, executive director at Greystar Real Estate Partners, a private equity firm specializing in rental properties. “There is scarcity of supply and not enough existing stock, but there are barriers.”

Housing has become a thorny political issue for Europe, with struggles to find affordable living space contributing to social tensions and voter frustration. But there’s no quick fix.

From rent controls to planning bottlenecks, the hurdles vary across Europe and will require sustained government action to unlock investment to eventually ease pressure on strapped households  . Here’s a rundown of key issues in various markets.

UK

The mere mention of Britain’s planning system is usually enough to draw a look of disapproval from real estate investors. Development decisions are in the hands of depleted local councils, and public input can hinder ambitious projects. “There are some councils that get it, and there are some that don’t,” Allnutt said. “Those that don’t get it outnumber those that do.”

Local authorities typically have eight weeks to make a decision, or up to 13 weeks for major projects. But only two in ten applications for big housing developments were resolved in that time between July and September last year, according to government statistics.

The prospect of new rules is also an issue. The Labour party, which is leading in the polls, has pledged a series of reforms to tackle Britain’s housing shortage, while in London, Mayor Sadiq Khan has repeatedly called for limits on rent increases.

While caps might be welcome for tenants, they can perpetuate housing shortages in the long term by choking off incentives for new construction. That’s the case in Scotland, where landlords can only hike rents by up to 3% a year, according to the Scottish Property Federation. “The sector has been stymied by what investors consider to be high levels of political risk,” said John Boyle, the main author of the research.

Ireland

Still suffering from a housing bubble that burst during the financial crisis, rent increases in Ireland are capped at 2% a year in perpetuity. That means the recent surge in inflation isn’t accounted for, weighing on investment in new supply.

The upshot is a worsening housing crunch and intensifying tensions. Agitators involved in violent riots in Dublin in November harnessed grievances as a lack of affordable homes collides with an influx of refugees and asylum seekers.

The Irish government has pledged to build an average of 33,000 new homes each year from 2021 to 2030. But for developers, persistently high inflation means the numbers don’t add up. “Rent control doesn’t have to be a problem,” but the rules need to align better with the costs and the risks, said Bob Faith, chief executive officer at Greystar.

Germany

Fewer than half of Germans own their homes — one of the lowest rates in Europe — and while that means there are lots of investment opportunities in the rental sector, buying existing stock entails renovation risk. There is extensive supply of rental housing in Germany, but a significant portion is “very old and not fit for purpose,” said Greystar’s Faith.

Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s ruling coalition, which has failed to achieve a target of 400,000 new homes a year, shelved stricter efficiency rules for new buildings in September in a bid to bolster construction. But the move does little to counter high interest rates and surging construction costs, and investors remain nervous about when the rules will return.

“Housing construction urgently and quickly needs a boost, not further uncertainty,” said Felix Pakleppa, managing director of Germany’s ZDB construction lobby.

Strict rules on tenant protection make it even more difficult to attract investors. Government plans to further tighten regulations, such as lowering the cap on rent increases, “would lead to less new building rather than more,” said Rolf Buch, chief executive officer of Germany’s largest landlord Vonovia SE. “Legislators need to think about this carefully.”

Nordics

Sweden’s ongoing real estate crisis, which raised echoes of a 1990s crash that sparked a full-blown financial meltdown, has seen slumping property prices and surging financing costs weigh on the Nordic country’s economy. But in Stockholm, there isn’t nearly enough supply, and national rent controls hold back investment in development.

For those who don’t have the money to buy or years to wait for an official lease have little alternative to a shadowy sublet market. Such issues spook many looking to invest in new supply across Europe, with the risk that all landlords are tarred with the same brush.

“Investors have nervousness about reputational issues, but the big one is regulation,” said Andrew Allen, global head of research, product strategy and development at Savills Investment Management.

In Denmark — where inflation is still high — rents can only rise 4% annually until this year, with a cap applying to both existing and future housing contracts. The deal was put in place to bring relief to about 160,000 tenants who would otherwise face substantial increases, according to the government.

Poland

Ahead of last year’s election campaign, the Polish government implemented mortgage stimulus for first-time buyers, contributing to a surge of almost 20% in home prices in the biggest cities in 2023. But now the money has run out and the new administration under Prime Minister Donald Tusk plans to restart support not earlier than in the second half of the year, adding income limits.

That means Poles are again exposed to the market’s structural problems, such as high prices, expensive loans and tight supply. The trends are expected to gradually turn some away from home ownership, confirming one of the key investment thesis for foreign funds investing in rental projects since 2016.

Property developer Echo Investment SA, which cooperates with Pimco, said it sees “increased interest from foreign operators to enter the market.” While many Poles are joining the trend and becoming landlords themselves, the volume of new transactions is climbing.

Iberia

Residential construction in Spain has been depressed since the last bubble burst more than a decade ago. The biggest bottleneck is sluggish administration. Developers complain it can take over a year to get approvals, adding to overall costs.

“In Spain, you have to be mindful of the time it can take to obtain a building permit,” said John German, who oversees Invesco Ltd.’s residential business in Europe. “Even if the land is zoned, it can still take a year or more to obtain a building permit to start on site.”

There are efforts to unlock investment by spreading the risk. Spanish home developer Neinor Homes SA is setting up partnerships with investors like AXA IM Alts. Such initiatives are much needed, with the stock of new dwellings shrinking for 13 consecutive years and now at the lowest since 2007.

In Portugal, the government is seeking to cool off a residential market by ending a golden visa program and approving a plan to cut tax incentives for new residents. The moves stoked demand from foreign investors and put home ownership out of reach for most locals, but people still need a place to live and that opens the door to investors that can navigate the pitfalls.

“Investors increasingly defer to beds because they don’t like the other stuff,” Savills’ Allen said. “People will always need space for a bed and a kitchen.”

[Urederra]

Excelente mensaje. Brillante.

[Esta ficha sustituye a la homónima que figura en...
https://www.transicionestructural.net/index.php?topic=2594.msg217499#msg217499 ]


FICHA || LOS 5 VASOS COMUNICANTES DE LA RENTA.—

En 1.ª ronda, la distribución del PIB en rentas netas es un sistema de cinco vasos comunicantes. En el gráfico figuran las proporciones aproximadas. No se ve en él, pero cada renta neta tiene dos tramos: el conmutativamente justo y el usurario.

Nótese el orden de extracción:
— las rentas aproductivas se extraen antes que las productivas;
— las rentas inmobiliarias son las primeras que se extraen y hay que honrarlas incluso antes de empezar todo trabajo organizado en empresa;
— las pensiones se extraen reteniéndolas (cotizaciones sociales) al pagar salarios; y
— las rentas empresariales son residuales: es lo que le queda al empresariado después de la honra de las rentas aproductivas y las productivas salariales, incluidos los supersalarios de los trabajadores-directivos (en España, unos 18.000).

La Renta es el cedazo entre la Producción y el Gasto (Consumo o Ahorro).

Si la economía decae o no crece, pero se mantiene o sube el flujo de rentas financieras, todo lo que no bajen las rentas inmobiliarias tendrán que bajarlo las pensiones, si se quiere mantener el nivel de las rentas productivas. Y estos dos grupos de destinatarios de rentas aproductivas no tienen la misma combinación de propensiones al Consumo y al Ahorro: las pensiones son más productivas en 2.ª ronda y el exceso de ahorro aproductivo lastra la Producción.

Imagen para el recuerdo:

En las votaciones de los países de sistema capitalista, el electorado no opta directamente por distintos modelos de Producción o de Gasto, sino por la distribución de la Renta que querría. Las consultas electorales son macroencuestas que ofrecen información sobre la prelación de destinos de la Renta que gustaría que hubiera —lo que puede estar o no conforme con el ortograma capitalista—. «Se vota con el bolsillo» —en España, país con exceso de falso ahorro inmobiliario, «se vota con el ladrillo», como se ve en sus centros y costas—. Todo se complica cuando no hay Renta suficiente para repartir y ya no se puede traer más Renta del futuro. En estos casos, lo que desea el electorado se revela como 'Fantasías animadas de ayer y hoy'. Se evidencia su incompatibilidad con la supervivencia del sistema capitalista. Las cañas se tornan lanzas. Se pasa de 'Los días de vino y rosas' a 'Sangre, sudor y lágrimas'. Y cunde el resentimiento entre los apegados al patrón de Producción-Renta-Gasto del que el propio sistema, que es brutal, está harto.

[el malo]

Feliz año al foro y felices Reyes para ustedes y los más pequeños.

Estoy en España pasando unos días con la familia y veo que algo se está cociendo. Me pasa igual cuando veo a la gente.. este ha engordado, esta ha adelgazado, este está mucho mejor.. la familia no lo ve porque les ven todos los días, pero yo que los vi por última vez hace 4 ó 6 meses lo veo fácilmente.

Ahora veo las noticias y oigo mucho tiempo dedicado a la innacesibilidad de la vivienda para los jóvenes, a los precios altos, a la falta de futuro en general. Cuando lo comento con la familia me dicen que sí, que no es nada nuevo, que "ya se sabe" pero ya les digo que hace 6 meses el mensaje era completamente diferente.

Se está preparando algo y ya están soltando un goteo de noticias para concienciar al personal. No me extrañaría que pasemos a un ataque por saturación de noticias y acabar convenciendo a los boomers de que bajen sus pisitos y se sacrifiquen "una vez más por el país" "por los jóvenes". El resultado será el mismo y el boomer no morirá echando espuma por la boca sino en la cama, feliz y autocomplacido por su sacrificio y haber hecho algo por los jóvenes "otra vez",  sabiendo que San Pedro en persona estará esperándole a las puertas del cielo en recompensa por su bondad, por haber vendido su zulo franquista a mitad de precio (precio de catálogo de hoy) a esa pareja de jóvenes desprotegidos.

[Raf909]

Se defienden como gato panza arriba... Yo estoy de acuerdo con Asustadísimos. Además de la política monetaria sostenida (for some time) y firme (esta vez no se va a ceder) creo que será necesario un evento como detonante del cambio. Como si se tratara de un volantazo. Porque no basta con dejar de alimentar a la bestia. El inmobiliario tiene que dejar de ser un vehículo de inversión, de verse en términos de rentabilidad; y para ello tienen que bajar los precios y las rentas de alquiler. Seguir con la "estrategia" de la escasez daña la economía real. Hay que liberar la economía de esta carga para que pueda crecer de forma más saludable.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-01-05/housing-market-supply-is-scarce-across-europe-as-investors-face-barriers

Europe’s Rent Caps and Red Tape Are Threatening Housing Investment

Investors are ready to bet on residential, but a tangle of rules threatens to stymie the flow

As housing shortages cause rents to surge in major European cities, investors are queueing up to pour cash into new homes only to be thwarted by a bewildering array of hurdles.

With office and retail real estate suffering from remote-working and online-shopping trends, property investors have earmarked an additional €82 billion ($90 billion) for residential projects in Europe through 2025, according to a Savills survey. But the quagmire of rules, regulations and red tape is standing in their way.

“There is all this capital that is looking to get into Europe,” said Mark Allnutt, executive director at Greystar Real Estate Partners, a private equity firm specializing in rental properties. “There is scarcity of supply and not enough existing stock, but there are barriers.”

Housing has become a thorny political issue for Europe, with struggles to find affordable living space contributing to social tensions and voter frustration. But there’s no quick fix.

From rent controls to planning bottlenecks, the hurdles vary across Europe and will require sustained government action to unlock investment to eventually ease pressure on strapped households  . Here’s a rundown of key issues in various markets.

UK

The mere mention of Britain’s planning system is usually enough to draw a look of disapproval from real estate investors. Development decisions are in the hands of depleted local councils, and public input can hinder ambitious projects. “There are some councils that get it, and there are some that don’t,” Allnutt said. “Those that don’t get it outnumber those that do.”

Local authorities typically have eight weeks to make a decision, or up to 13 weeks for major projects. But only two in ten applications for big housing developments were resolved in that time between July and September last year, according to government statistics.

The prospect of new rules is also an issue. The Labour party, which is leading in the polls, has pledged a series of reforms to tackle Britain’s housing shortage, while in London, Mayor Sadiq Khan has repeatedly called for limits on rent increases.

While caps might be welcome for tenants, they can perpetuate housing shortages in the long term by choking off incentives for new construction. That’s the case in Scotland, where landlords can only hike rents by up to 3% a year, according to the Scottish Property Federation. “The sector has been stymied by what investors consider to be high levels of political risk,” said John Boyle, the main author of the research.

Ireland

Still suffering from a housing bubble that burst during the financial crisis, rent increases in Ireland are capped at 2% a year in perpetuity. That means the recent surge in inflation isn’t accounted for, weighing on investment in new supply.

The upshot is a worsening housing crunch and intensifying tensions. Agitators involved in violent riots in Dublin in November harnessed grievances as a lack of affordable homes collides with an influx of refugees and asylum seekers.

The Irish government has pledged to build an average of 33,000 new homes each year from 2021 to 2030. But for developers, persistently high inflation means the numbers don’t add up. “Rent control doesn’t have to be a problem,” but the rules need to align better with the costs and the risks, said Bob Faith, chief executive officer at Greystar.

Germany

Fewer than half of Germans own their homes — one of the lowest rates in Europe — and while that means there are lots of investment opportunities in the rental sector, buying existing stock entails renovation risk. There is extensive supply of rental housing in Germany, but a significant portion is “very old and not fit for purpose,” said Greystar’s Faith.

Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s ruling coalition, which has failed to achieve a target of 400,000 new homes a year, shelved stricter efficiency rules for new buildings in September in a bid to bolster construction. But the move does little to counter high interest rates and surging construction costs, and investors remain nervous about when the rules will return.

“Housing construction urgently and quickly needs a boost, not further uncertainty,” said Felix Pakleppa, managing director of Germany’s ZDB construction lobby.

Strict rules on tenant protection make it even more difficult to attract investors. Government plans to further tighten regulations, such as lowering the cap on rent increases, “would lead to less new building rather than more,” said Rolf Buch, chief executive officer of Germany’s largest landlord Vonovia SE. “Legislators need to think about this carefully.”

Nordics

Sweden’s ongoing real estate crisis, which raised echoes of a 1990s crash that sparked a full-blown financial meltdown, has seen slumping property prices and surging financing costs weigh on the Nordic country’s economy. But in Stockholm, there isn’t nearly enough supply, and national rent controls hold back investment in development.

For those who don’t have the money to buy or years to wait for an official lease have little alternative to a shadowy sublet market. Such issues spook many looking to invest in new supply across Europe, with the risk that all landlords are tarred with the same brush.

“Investors have nervousness about reputational issues, but the big one is regulation,” said Andrew Allen, global head of research, product strategy and development at Savills Investment Management.

In Denmark — where inflation is still high — rents can only rise 4% annually until this year, with a cap applying to both existing and future housing contracts. The deal was put in place to bring relief to about 160,000 tenants who would otherwise face substantial increases, according to the government.

Poland

Ahead of last year’s election campaign, the Polish government implemented mortgage stimulus for first-time buyers, contributing to a surge of almost 20% in home prices in the biggest cities in 2023. But now the money has run out and the new administration under Prime Minister Donald Tusk plans to restart support not earlier than in the second half of the year, adding income limits.

That means Poles are again exposed to the market’s structural problems, such as high prices, expensive loans and tight supply. The trends are expected to gradually turn some away from home ownership, confirming one of the key investment thesis for foreign funds investing in rental projects since 2016.

Property developer Echo Investment SA, which cooperates with Pimco, said it sees “increased interest from foreign operators to enter the market.” While many Poles are joining the trend and becoming landlords themselves, the volume of new transactions is climbing.

Iberia

Residential construction in Spain has been depressed since the last bubble burst more than a decade ago. The biggest bottleneck is sluggish administration. Developers complain it can take over a year to get approvals, adding to overall costs.

“In Spain, you have to be mindful of the time it can take to obtain a building permit,” said John German, who oversees Invesco Ltd.’s residential business in Europe. “Even if the land is zoned, it can still take a year or more to obtain a building permit to start on site.”

There are efforts to unlock investment by spreading the risk. Spanish home developer Neinor Homes SA is setting up partnerships with investors like AXA IM Alts. Such initiatives are much needed, with the stock of new dwellings shrinking for 13 consecutive years and now at the lowest since 2007.

In Portugal, the government is seeking to cool off a residential market by ending a golden visa program and approving a plan to cut tax incentives for new residents. The moves stoked demand from foreign investors and put home ownership out of reach for most locals, but people still need a place to live and that opens the door to investors that can navigate the pitfalls.

“Investors increasingly defer to beds because they don’t like the other stuff,” Savills’ Allen said. “People will always need space for a bed and a kitchen.”

Derby, y queue solución propondrías?

La ideal sería que el estado se ponga construr vivienda pública de alquiler... pero antes de que eso se empezara a notar en el mercado necesitaríamos 15 años.

A mi me gusta más la idea de favorecer la construcción de vivienda de calidad, pero limitar el endeudamiento al 50%. Si un pisito vale 200k, el posible propietario va a tender que soltar 100k + gastos, y esos son muchos muchos años de ahorro en España... o que el precio del pisito baje a 120k.