PPCC: Pisitófilos Creditófagos. Invierno 2024

[Lem]

"Can't make this shit up" como se dice por aquí.

@carlosizqtorres

Hace días los portales inmobiliarios señalaban que #Carabanchel es el distrito en el que más sube el precio de la vivienda.

Ahora también el precio del alquiler.

Sin duda, Carabanchel es un distrito cada vez más atractivo para vivir.

#CarabanchelAvanza

6:58 am · 20 Feb 2024 from Madrid, Comunidad de Madrid · 26.4K Views

Transición escrotal.

[R.G.C.I.M.]

Bendita mierda que es todo que mi mierda de carabanchel perfuma tanto.

Un ojete de valor, el pisito.
La transición es de escroto del propietariado a ano de sacrificado.
Lo que se conoce como porculizacion .
Uno activo y otro pasivo.  Uno da y otro recibe. Uno yan y otro yin.
Debe ser por eso que hay tanto hormocezual yan entre las cohortes jóvenes.
Piso no, pero algún premio de dragqüín carnavalera o maestro de costura puede caer.

Salud.

[Raf909]

Amigos, siento mi pesimismo.

Si los gobiernos de los diferentes estados de la UE no se ponen a legislar, un día tras otro, medidas contra el rentismo inmobiliario, el pisito muere en la cama el día que se muera la generación T.

De momento, mi percepción es que no se está haciendo nada relevante, medidas cosméticas por aquí y por allá para que nada cambie.

Que diferencia con las medidas de la electrificación: Se define un horizonte temporal, se definen unos objetivos y se otorga presupuesto para ello. Con esto, puedes estar de acuerdo o no, te puede gustar más o menos, se cumplirán antes o después... pero sabes las intenciones.

Sí, ya se que al final de las burbujas no hay que creerse nada, pero no veo intención. Cada día que pasa sin acciones, el dios pisito mata un niño nonato, y a cambio nace un gatito.

[Betancourt]

Por otra parte a nadie se escapan los grandes paralelismos entre nuestra época y los colapsos civilizatorios como  el largo declive del imperio cultural greco-latino.  Uno de los efectos del fin de Roma a manos de los "bárbaros periféricos" fueron los más de mil años que detuvieron el desarrollo científico del Occidente europeo hasta los inicios de la edad moderna.   
Este parón fue perfectamente observable en la Tarraconensis hispana que, desde la invasión de los Alanos a principios del siglo V hasta 1717, mantuvo su población por debajo de las 400,000 almas (unas 250,000 durante las dos grandes epidemias de peste). Mil cien años de pertinaz miseria asolaron Europa occidental.

Los "los más de mil años que detuvieron el desarrollo científico del Occidente europeo" quizás fueron los que, en realidad,  acabaron engendrando "el desarrollo científico" y el propio "Occidente", a partir de las civiizaciones helénica y siriaca (Toynbee)  y los aportes de la ciencia medieval y la teología cristiana, con su visión no cíclica del tiempo (Duhem)

Yo también, cuando era joven y veía la serie "Cosmos" de Carl Sagan, quede marcado por el capítulo en el que, viajando en el tiempo, Sagan imáginaba qué "pequeño cambio" habría permitido esquivar los "mil años de oscuridad" para que los griegos, en plan Hari Seldon,  hubieran podido preservar el  "método científico" (?)  y adelantar la llegada de naves interestelares, como la imaginada en el episodio, en unos 500 años



Por lo menos Sagan tuvo el detalle de llamarle a la nave "Theodoros" (Don de Dios)

[Urederra]

[Derby]

https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/what-keynes-famous-1930-essay-got-right-and-wrong-by-kaushik-basu-2024-02

Economic Possibilities for Our Overworked Grandchildren

Nearly a century ago, John Maynard Keynes predicted that technological advances would obviate the need for work, ushering in an age of abundance and leisure. Although his prediction was far off the mark, his idealistic vision of creating a more equitable society is more pertinent than ever.

Feb 21, 2024 Kaushik Basu

ITHACA, NEW YORK – In 1930, John Maynard Keynes published his short essay “Economic Possibilities for Our Grandchildren,” in which he outlined his vision of a future global economy characterized by leisure and abundance. As the rapid advance of artificial intelligence threatens to displace millions of workers, it is worth revisiting this brilliant, passionate work.

Keynes originally wrote his essay in 1928 for a lecture at a boys’ school in Hampshire, England, and spent two years revising it before its publication. Despite being taken aback by the 1929 stock market crash, he encouraged his readers to view it as a “temporary phase of maladjustment.” Demonstrating his characteristic foresight, Keynes avoided making predictions for the next five or ten years, instead focusing on the century to come.

Many of Keynes’s insights were remarkably prescient. Modern society, he observed, had become “afflicted with a new disease,” whereby technological advances had reduced demand for labor. But he viewed this “technological unemployment” as a reason for hope, not despair, predicting that innovation would drive rapid GDP growth and usher in an age of leisure. “The standard of life in progressive countries one hundred years hence,” he speculated, “will be between four and eight times as high as it is.” Despite the economic ups and downs of the past century, this prediction has proven to be accurate. But as far-sighted as he was, Keynes’s other forecasts were far off the mark. “Within a hundred years,” he asserted, humanity’s “economic problem” – the need to work in order to produce the goods that sustain us – would be resolved. While people may still work “three hours a day,” mainly “to satisfy the old Adam in most of us,” both the poor and the rich would enjoy such prosperity that labor would become unnecessary.

Keynes has been rightly taken to task for this wildly optimistic prediction. As Elizabeth Kolbert noted in The New Yorker, the productivity gains of the past century have not translated into increased leisure time for all. To be sure, the economically disadvantaged work less now, both because there are fewer jobs and because life is less precarious than it used to be. But the wealthy, driven by a culture of competitive greed, find themselves working more than ever.

Moreover, work-leisure balance varies across regions and countries. The average American, for example, works 100 hours more annually than the average British worker and 300 hours more than the average French employee. US workers also take fewer vacation days than their European counterparts, who are legally entitled to at least four weeks of paid vacation per year.

But while Keynes failed to anticipate how the economic problem would evolve, his essay’s underlying normative argument is often overlooked. Indeed, one of the main reasons why he got his prediction wrong is that he projected his own ethical principles onto others. Much like his Bloomsbury Group peers, Keynes viewed greed with disdain. In the same essay, he described the relentless pursuit of wealth for its own sake as a “disgusting morbidity.”

Keynes’s mistake was to underestimate human greed and assume that a certain level of financial security would satisfy most people. He envisioned a more equitable world where individuals could enjoy unprecedented prosperity, free from economic anxieties. But, as Joseph E. Stiglitz has pointed out, Keynes misjudged the balance between the desire for leisure and the appetite for consumption. After all, why settle for a single TV when you can work harder and install screens “in every room and in both the front and the back of automobiles”?

Keynes also underestimated the competitive drive that fuels the relentless quest for wealth and social status. The wealthy, in particular, are often motivated by a desire to maintain their relative standing, leading to an endless competition for supremacy. While Keynes believed that a shift toward an equitable world would occur naturally, it has become clear that achieving this goal requires government intervention. One way to bring about the equitable society Keynes envisioned is to tax the rich. In my recent book Reason to be Happy, I propose a tax regime designed to redistribute income from the wealthy to the poor, leaving relative positions unchanged and without undermining individual incentives. This system, which I have dubbed the “accordion tax,” aims to narrow the income gap by taxing those with above average earnings and transferring these funds to those with below average wages, as a form of negative proportional tax.

This approach would enable billionaires like Elon Musk and Jeff Bezos to maintain their relative standing, even with substantially reduced post-tax earnings. Given that their primary concern is their rankings among the world’s wealthiest individuals, their motivation to innovate and venture into new fields would not be diminished. Meanwhile, the economic well-being of lower-income households would significantly improve.

Contrary to Keynes’s expectations, we cannot build a fairer society by leaving people to their own devices. Fortunately, a growing number of people, including several of the world’s billionaires, are committed to addressing today’s extreme economic disparities, even though that would be to their own disadvantage. Nearly a century after Keynes outlined his vision of the future, the road to solving our economic problem remains long. Still, there is cause for hope. While avarice has grown, so has awareness of its consequences.

[Derby]

https://www.expansion.com/empresas/banca/2024/02/20/65d3a8b9e5fdeaac6d8b4585.html

Banca
El negocio inmobiliario de CaixaBank casi duplica sus pérdidas

El negocio del ladrillo de CaixaBank casi duplicó sus pérdidas el pasado año. La filial que gestiona y comercializa los activos inmobiliarios del grupo, Building Center, registró un resultado negativo de 297,3 millones de euros, unos números rojos un 82% mayores que el ejercicio anterior.

Dentro del perímetro de la compañía se encuentra Living Center, la filial inmobiliaria que gestiona los activos procedentes de la antigua Bankia y que está controlada al 100% por Building Center. En este caso, la compañía también presentó números rojos (50 millones de euros), aunque fueron menores a los del ejercicio anterior, cuando perdió 134 millones.

A través de estas compañías, CaixaBank centraliza la práctica totalidad de sus activos inmobiliarios adjudicados que llegan al banco ya sea a través de subastas, daciones en pago o por vía concursal. La filial lleva a cabo estrategias distintas para dar salida a este ladrillo, entre las que se cuentan la venta individual de inmuebles, el traspaso de grandes carteras, la finalización de promociones o los alquileres.

La entidad presidida por José Ignacio Goirigolzarri consiguió reducir un 15% el volumen total de activos inmobiliarios en su balance. Frente a los 4.837 millones de euros (en valor bruto) que registraba en 2022, un año después finalizó el ejercicio con 4.118 millones.

En 2024 CaixaBank espera dar un nuevo aire a la gestión de sus activos del ladrillo. Para ello, la entidad rompió el año pasado los acuerdos históricos de servicing que mantenía con Servihabitat y Haya. El banco seleccionó a Azzam, que asumirá la gestión de los inmuebles en alquiler; además, Haya Real Estate y Solvia-Intrum, que están en proceso de integración, se convertirán en el único servicer respecto a la venta y mantenimiento de los inmuebles del grupo.

Otras participadas

También se elevaron las pérdidas de otros negocios del ladrillo en los que CaixaBank mantiene alguna participación.

Es el caso de Coral Homes, la compañía de servicios inmobiliarios de la que el banco es dueña de un 20% del capital (el resto es del fondo Lone Star). La compañía perdió 69,2 millones de euros el pasado año, incrementando sus números rojos frente a los obtenidos el año anterior, cuando registró un resultado negativo de 47 millones.

La entidad, no obstante, es positiva con respecto a la evolución futura de la compañía. El informe anual señala que la valoración individualizada de Coral Homes "ha evidenciado la existencia de plusvalías latentes relevantes" que CaixaBank espera poder materializar a lo largo de los próximos ejercicios.

Otra sociedad del ladrillo participada por CaixaBank (un 20%) que elevó sus pérdidas fue Gramina. La compañía, también controlada por Lone Star, duplicó sus números rojos en 2023, tras sufrir un resultado negativo de cinco millones.

[Derby]

https://cincodias.elpais.com/companias/2024-02-20/el-precio-de-los-inmuebles-para-alquiler-se-hunde-y-con-mas-intensidad-en-oficinas.html

Inmobiliario
El precio de los inmuebles para alquiler se hunde... y con más intensidad en oficinas

El alza de tipos de interés y el impulso del teletrabajo golpea el negocio patrimonialista

El impulso del teletrabajo ha provocado que los edificios de oficinas estén menos de moda para los grandes inversores en este el negocio patrimonialista destinado al alquiler. Solo el pasado año, la valoración de este tipo de inmuebles cayó un 10,31%, según los datos proporcionados por la consultora CBRE a este diario. En logística, retail y residencial dedicado al arrendamiento también se produjo una caída del precio, pero en menos intensidad.

El rápido alza de tipos de interés ha provocado una menor inversión en toda Europa en todo tipo de activos destinados al arrendamiento, lo que a su vez conlleva que los inversores pidan una mayor rentabilidad en las transacciones y, por tanto, pagar menos por los inmuebles. En el caso de las oficinas, se suma el auge del teletrabajo, por lo que los compradores han perdido apetito debido a la incertidumbre sobre la ocupación de estos edificios.

De forma interanual, la valoración de las oficinas se deja el citado 10,31% y en el segundo semestre del 4,09%. Madrid cerró el año con 389.000 metros cuadrados alquilados, lo que supone un descenso del 23% en el año.

Para Fernando Fuente, presidente de CBRE Valuation & Advisory Services en España, en 2023 las valoraciones de los activos inmobiliarios han registrado fuertes correcciones, siguiendo la tendencia iniciada en el segundo semestre de 2022 con la escalada de tipos de interés. “Durante la primera mitad del ejercicio 2024 veremos los últimos ajustes de valor capital para la generalidad de los activos inmobiliarios. Será, no obstante, en la segunda parte del año cuando vislumbraremos cierto optimismo con la esperada bajada de tipos de interés, consecuente reactivación de los mercados y estabilidad de las valoraciones”, afirma.

Las empresas propietarias de oficinas, además, están sufriendo en Bolsa. En España, Colonial, inmobiliaria cotizada en el Ibex y dueña de este tipo de edificios en Madrid, Barcelona y París se deja un 24% de su cotización en los últimos 12 meses.

CBRE elabora este índice tiendo en cuenta 165 activos con una superficie agregada de 2,8 millones de metros cuadrados y un valor conjunto de 7.384 millones. Según la consultora, se observa mejor comportamiento en importes en las zonas centrales de las ciudades.

El residencial se mantiene mejor

El segmento que mejor mantiene los precios es el de residencial (únicamente una pérdida del 0,79%), o living en el argot del sector, en el que se incluye distintos tipos de activos, desde vivienda a otras soluciones flexibles o residencias de estudiantes y de mayores. Este sector concentró el pasado año una inversión de 3.000 millones, con especial relevancia del build to rent (proyectos de construir para arrendar), que atrajo 1.868 millones de volumen.

El sector industrial/logístico sufrió también un ajuste considerable, del 7,7% interanual. En el caso de activos destinado a retail, el descenso también es significativo, del 5,12%.

[Derby]

https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/germanys-shortage-workers-is-biggest-risk-growth-minister-says-2024-02-21/

Germany's shortage of workers is biggest risk to growth, minister says

BERLIN, Feb 21 (Reuters) - The biggest challenge for Europe's largest economy will be growth constraints due to a workforce shortage, German Economy Minister Robert Habeck said on Wednesday after Berlin slashed its outlook for this year.

The government expects the economy to grow 0.2% this year, far less than a previously forecast 1.3%, as weak global demand, geopolitical uncertainty and persistently high inflation dent hopes for a swift rebound.

With some 700,000 vacancies currently unfilled, Germany's economic growth potential has fallen to 0.7% from around 2% in 1980s and is set to fall further to 0.5% if the country fails to resolve this problem, Habeck said.

"We lack hands and minds," Habeck said at news conference presenting the government's 2024 economic report, adding that unfilled vacancies were set to rise due to an ageing population.

Official estimates suggest Germany's ageing society will be short seven million skilled workers by 2035.

"It is no longer just about skilled workers," he added.

Offering financial incentives for people who would like to work longer and more flexibly in old age was one solution proposed in the government's report.

Reconsidering unemployment welfare benefits for some recipients was another way to tackle the problem, Habeck said.

More than half of Germans believe work is not worthwhile after the government's planned increase in welfare payments and child benefits, a survey showed in September.

Some 2.6 million people aged between 20 and 30 in Germany have no professional qualification, Habeck said.

Welfare and aggressive labour market reforms introduced some 20 years ago were credited with elevating Germany to an internationally envied level of competitiveness after recessions in 2003 and 2004.

But Germany won't be able to bridge the workforce gap without migration, Habeck said, adding the country needs to become immigration friendly with quick visa procedures, more language courses and digital access to German companies from abroad.

Berlin has introduced several laws to make the country more attractive for migrant workers, such as shortening foreigners' paths to citizenship, speeding up the issuance of visas and recognising foreign qualifications in the job market.

Not everyone is Germany is happy with the prospect of more immigration, however. Support for the nationalist Alternative for Germany (AfD) party has reached a record high and it polls as the second most popular party nationally.

[CHOSEN]

Sobre la eterna burbuja, afrontadlo de esta manera:

"Es mejor que morirse"


 

[Derby]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-02-21/most-fed-officials-flagged-risks-of-cutting-rates-too-quickly

Fed Minutes Show Most Officials Flagged Risks of Cutting Rates Too Quickly

Minutes of Jan. 30-31 meeting were released Wednesday
Fed seeks more evidence inflation is on downward path

Most Federal Reserve officials last month flagged concerns over moving too quickly to cut interest rates, indicating such risks outweighed keeping borrowing costs elevated for too long.

The minutes of the Jan. 30-31 Federal Open Market Committee meeting showed policymakers remain attentive to the trajectory of inflation, with some worried that progress toward the central bank’s 2% target could stall. Together, the record reinforced the Fed’s preference for more evidence that inflation is firmly on a downward path.

Fed officials agreed borrowing costs were likely at their peak, but the exact timing of the first interest-rate cut remained unclear. That said, the minutes indicated growing support among a group of policymakers for slowing the pace at which the Fed shrinks its asset portfolio.

“Most participants noted the risks of moving too quickly to ease the stance of policy and emphasized the importance of carefully assessing incoming data in judging whether inflation is moving down sustainably to 2%,” according to the meeting minutes released Wednesday.

Only a “couple” of officials pointed to risks to the economy from waiting too long to cut.

“Participants highlighted the uncertainty associated with how long a restrictive monetary policy stance would need to be maintained,” the minutes showed.

Treasuries remained lower and the S&P 500 held losses on the day.

Economic data has largely surprised to the upside since the central bank’s last gathering, disrupting the rapid slowing in inflation seen at the end of 2023 and validating the Fed’s cautious approach.

Payrolls Jump

US employers boosted payrolls by the most in a year, and the consumer price index rose by more than expected across the board. Economists forecast the Fed’s preferred gauge of underlying inflation to rise at the fastest pace since early 2023 when it’s released next week.

Markets have significantly dialed back expectations for early and rapid rate cuts as a result, with traders in the federal funds futures market now betting the Fed will first lower rates in June.
Investors also expect three to four cuts in 2024, a pace more in line with policymakers’ median projection in December.

Fed officials will update their projections for rates and the economy at their March 19-20 meeting. Ahead of that gathering, Fed Chair Jerome Powell will have an opportunity to offer fresh thoughts on the outlook when he testifies before Congress in early March.

Policymakers voted unanimously to leave interest rates unchanged in a range of 5.25% to 5.5% last month while revamping their post-meeting statement. The central bank dropped a reference to potential additional policy “firming” and instead indicated it wouldn’t be appropriate to reduce rates without “greater confidence” about the trajectory of inflation.

Powell said earlier this month that it was unlikely policymakers would reach that level of confidence by the central bank’s March meeting. And earlier Wednesday, Fed Governor Michelle Bowman said the time to cut interest rates was “certainly not now.”

Balance Sheet

The minutes indicated some officials said it may be appropriate to start slowing the pace at which it shrinks its asset portfolio, a process known as quantitative tightening.

Against a backdrop of declining balances held at the Fed’s overnight reverse repo facility - a key liquidity tool for markets, many participants suggested the committee should have an in-depth discussion about the balance sheet at the March meeting, which would guide an “eventual decision” on slowing the pace of runoff.

“Some participants remarked that, given the uncertainty surrounding estimates of the ample level of reserves, slowing the pace of runoff could help smooth the transition to that level of reserves or could allow the committee to continue balance sheet runoff for longer,” the minutes showed.

[gregorsamesa]

Sobre la eterna burbuja, afrontadlo de esta manera:

"Es mejor que morirse"


 

Ahora que veo la mascarilla.....
https://www.elconfidencial.com/espana/2024-02-21/abalos-koldo-detenido-comisiones-ilegales-uco-guardia-civil_3834737/   

   OPERACIÓN DE LA GUARDIA CIVIL
El asesor de Ábalos, Koldo García, detenido por cobrar comisiones ilegales por la compra de mascarillas
Una investigación de la Unidad Central Operativa (UCO) implica a la mano derecha del exministro y diputado socialista José Luis Ábalos en el cobro de sobornos por adjudicaciones en los peores meses de la pandemia 

Esto también debe ser parte de la "vatayah Kurturah".... Los sociatas haciendo lo que mejor saben... 

[Cadavre Exquis]

https://cincodias.elpais.com/mercados-financieros/2024-02-21/quien-bajara-antes-los-tipos-de-interes-la-fed-o-el-bce.html

Saludos.

[Cadavre Exquis]

https://cincodias.elpais.com/mercados-financieros/2024-02-21/el-deja-vu-de-la-bolsa-japonesa-devuelve-al-nikkei-a-maximos-historicos-34-anos-despues.html

Saludos.

[Cadavre Exquis]

https://cincodias.elpais.com/mercados-financieros/2024-02-20/la-ue-y-caixabank-aprovechan-la-elevada-liquidez-y-aceleran-la-venta-de-deuda.html

Saludos.