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Cita de: asustadísimos en Junio 05, 2024, 11:45:36 amASUSTADÍSIMO.—Empiezo a estar yo, también, asustadísimo. Tranquilícenme, por favor.Vamos a morir en el bunker cienes y cienes de veces con mucho dolor y rodeados de l
ASUSTADÍSIMO.—Empiezo a estar yo, también, asustadísimo. Tranquilícenme, por favor.
China Risks Trade War on Two Fronts as Low-Tech Exports Soar, TooIndustries like steel, animal feed add to huge trade surplusCheap imports outside of green tech worry China’s EM partnersChina’s export boom goes far beyond the high-tech industries that are in Western crosshairs, leaving Beijing at risk of a backlash from countries that have so far preferred to sit on the trade-war sidelines.The European Union is poised to slap tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles this week, the latest example of rising barriers to global trade. The US already made a similar move, and Canada may follow suit. Few other nations have raised that particular concern, since most don’t have their own EV industries to protect.But China’s surplus in manufacturing trade, which is close to record levels, points to a much broader surge in exports. It encompasses not just green-energy goods but all kinds of products — from steel to animal feed — that are getting harder to sell at home, where a real estate slump is slowing the economy.(...)
Sternlicht Says Tightening Starwood REIT Redemption Limits Was ‘Tough’REIT restricted how much money investors can pull outProperty owners are grappling with fallout from higher ratesBillionaire Barry Sternlicht said it was “a very tough decision” to further limit withdrawals from Starwood Real Estate Income Trust, the $10 billion fund that found itself stuck between investors’ desire to redeem shares and a distaste for selling at a discount.“We knew we were going to get a lot of flack,” Sternlicht said Wednesday in an interview on CNBC. “We hope this is going to be a six-month thing.”Sternlicht’s comments follow news last month that the trust, known as SREIT, would cap monthly withdrawals at 0.33% of net asset value, down from a previous limit of 2%, electing to preserve the fund’s liquidity and avoid selling property into a down market or taking on new debt. The goal was to protect capital for investors who wanted to stick around, Sternlicht said.The move comes two years after the Federal Reserve started to raise interest rates aggressively, dragging down values for real estate and slowing transactions significantly. In the interview, Sternlicht said property markets are beginning to correct and that the trust can get better prices for assets later on.Even so, commercial real estate owners are feeling the squeeze. Lenders, too, are grappling with lower values. On Tuesday, Axos Financial Inc. shares slumped after short seller Hindenburg Research alleged that the bank had “glaring” property loan issues and an “aggressive” valuation. The lender pushed back, saying the allegations contained a series of “inaccuracies.”
Bank of Canada cuts rates, economists predict another reduction next monthOTTAWA, June 5 (Reuters) - The Bank of Canada on Wednesday trimmed its key policy rate by 25 basis points to 4.75%, in a widely expected move that marked its first cut in four years, and said more easing was likely if inflation continued to ease.Economists immediately predicted the BoC would cut again in July.After keeping interest rates at a more than two-decade high of 5% for almost a year, the BoC said the indicators for underlying inflation looked increasingly positive.(...)
Americans with adjustable mortgages could soon see their payments skyrocketA small group of Americans who took out cheaper but riskier mortgages several years ago are about to see their monthly payments skyrocket.Since 2019, more than 1.7 million homes have been bought using adjustable rate mortgages (ARMs), which initially offer a lower, more affordable interest rate than their fixed-rate counterparts. But eventually, ARMs reset to an unknown future rate, meaning there is a high degree of uncertainty for individuals who take on these types of loans.About 330,000 homeowners who got an ARM in 2019 have already seen their five-year, fixed-rate term end, and another 100,000 will see their rates adjusted this year, according to ICE Mortgage Technology.With mortgage rates settling near the highest level in two decades, the reset could cause monthly payments to surge for many homeowners."Interest rates went up at the fastest pace in 40 years, so buckle your seat belt," Greg McBride, chief financial analyst at Bankrate, told FOX Business.(...)
Toronto Home Prices Drop as Listings Linger on the MarketSales fell as high rates continue to sideline potential buyersPrices are adjusting to higher borrowing costs, analyst saysToronto home prices fell for the first time in four months as buyers pulled back and listings piled up.The seasonally adjusted benchmark price of a home in Canada’s largest city dropped 0.4% in May to C$1.08 million ($789,800) from a month earlier, according to a report released Wednesday from the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board. It was the first decline since January. The number of sales fell for a fourth straight month even as new listings rose.The dip in Toronto home costs comes amid easing in other consumer price pressures. Inflation appears to be heading toward the central bank’s 2% target, prompting speculation the Bank of Canada may begin cutting interest rates as early as its meeting on Wednesday.“We have seen selling prices adjust to mitigate the impact of higher mortgage rates,” Jason Mercer, the Toronto real estate board’s chief market analyst, said in a statement. “Affordability is expected to improve further as borrowing costs trend lower.”(...)
El articulo 91.3 de la Ley de IRPF (y el 100 de la Ley del IS) recogen una serie de rentas que los sufridos fiscalistas de este país denominamos "rentas pasivas" para simplificar el rollo que hay que contar a nuestros clientes sobre porque su sociedad off-shore no es tan buena idea. Quizás lo hayamos copiado de la regulación FATCA de "passive income". Como diría LeCarre, los primos americanos.
¿A quién no le gustaría vivir BIEN [...]
[...] y sin apenas trabajar, [...]
... dedicando su tiempo a cosas más importantes como la familia, amigos, sus aficiones y pasiones?
¡A casi todo el mundo! Pues bien, en este libro foro se recogen las claves que te permitirán llegar a conseguirlo. Aquí encontrarás nuevas formas de enriquecerte, de manera simple y legal, utilizando estrategias probadas, que te permitirán multiplicar tu tiempo de ocio. Un sistema que funciona, perfeccionado por Guerrero Cañongo, uno de los máximos exponentes mundiales sobre el tema, que consta de una serie de pasos que te ayudarán a conseguir tus metas de forma rápida y simple, siempre y cuando te comprometas a hacer una serie de cambios necesarios. Eliminarás creencias limitantes, transformarás tus hábitos y empezarás a disfrutar de tu nueva vida desde el minuto uno. ¿Te atreves? Adopta la filosofía del menor esfuerzo para conseguir tu libertad financiera
Lo que al final es eso, que cada uno preferirá una cosa... Habrá quien el morbo de buscar, mirar y que te miren y toda la parafernalia del cruising tradicional ya de por sí le guste y le ponga y quien opte por pasar unos pocos filtros o la comodidad [ ] / seguridad [ ] de una casa (por poner un ejemplo) [ ] que te da el cruising 2.0... o ninguna de las anteriores, clarostá.
Central Bank Divergence Set to EmergeThe developed world's central banks will head down different paths over the coming months, according to Jim Solloway, chief market strategist at SEI.The European Central Bank will probably cut rates before the Bank of England, with the U.S. Federal Reserve moving after both, Solloway said, noting that inflation is stickier and the economy more dynamic in the U.K. and the U.S. than in the euro zone."Central bank divergence should be a key theme in the coming months," he said.
Court rules Google must face £13.6bn advertising lawsuitGoogle must face a £13.6bn lawsuit alleging it has too much power over the online advertising market, a court has ruled.The case, brought by a group called Ad Tech Collective Action LLP, alleges the search giant behaved in an anti-competitive way which caused online publishers in the UK to lose money.Google parent company Alphabet called the case "incoherent" in its attempts to get the legal action dropped.But the Competition Appeal Tribunal, in London, has ruled the case can now go to trial.“This is a decision of major importance to the victims of Google’s anti-competitive conduct in adtech," said former Ofcom director Claudio Pollack, now a partner in Ad Tech Collective Action."Google will now have to answer for its practices in a full trial."However, Google's legal director, Oliver Bethell, described the lawsuit as "speculative and opportunistic.""We’ll oppose it vigorously and on the facts," he added in a statement.The cases concerns advertising technology, usually shortened to adtech, which decides which online adverts people see, as well as how much they cost to publishers.Hosting such adverts is a huge source of revenue for many websites - Ad Tech Collective Action says digital advertising spend reached $490 billion in 2021.It is also an extremely valuable industry for Google, because it dominates web search so heavily.At the core of the claim is the allegation that Google is abusing that dominance, reducing the income websites get.Ad Tech Collective Action says Google has engaged in what is known as "self-preferencing" - in other words promoting its own products and services more prominently than that of its rivals.It says that means publishers end up getting less money for the ads they host as well as having to pay "very high" fees to Google."I look forward to working with our legal and economic advisers to deliver compensation for years during which the relevant markets did not provide a competitive outcome for the UK publishing market," Mr Pollack said.But it will be a long time before any of this is resolved - it has already taken eighteen months to get to this point, and no court date has been set.The case is what is known as opt-out, meaning all relevant UK publishers are included unless they indicate otherwise.It is being funded by an unknown third-party, and says UK publishers who form part of the claim will not pay costs to participate.It comes as Google faces probes by regulators in the UK, Europe and US into its adtech business, while the firm has already faced fines valued at billions of pounds from the European Commission over what it labelled anticompetitive behaviour.
ECB rate cut to breathe life into Eurozone economyScale of boost for consumers, housing and investment will depend on how low borrowing costs can goInvestors will be intently looking for clues from ECB president Christine Lagarde to the future path of monetary policy © FT montage; AFP/Getty ImagesThe Eurozone is set for a much-needed economic boost on Thursday when the European Central Bank is expected to start cutting interest rates for the first time in almost five years. The scale of the impetus will depend on how much further borrowing costs fall, but stubbornly high inflation driven by rapid wage growth could limit the number of rate cuts, analysts say.With markets regarding a first rate cut as a given, investors will be intently looking for clues from ECB president Christine Lagarde to the future path of monetary policy.By starting to lower rates again, the bank is set to breathe fresh life into housing markets, business investment and consumer spending. The ECB last year raised its benchmark deposit rate to a record 4 per cent, putting a chokehold on economic activity to tackle the biggest price surge for a generation.“Lower rates do matter,” said Holger Schmieding, chief economist at German bank Berenberg. “Financial markets are well aware this is coming, but news that the ECB has started to cut rates could draw [the] attention of households and businesses, and lift sentiment.”The Eurozone economy already showed tentative signs of a recovery in the first three months of this year, when gross domestic product in the bloc rose 0.3 per cent from the previous quarter — ending a year of stagnation.The growth spurt mostly reflected the fading-out of an energy and food price shock triggered by Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine and a pick-up in global trade, Schmieding said.But he added that the anticipation of rate cuts had also helped to lower the cost of mortgages and corporate loans. “This will lead to a bottoming-out in housing markets, a recovery in housebuilding, and should help investment to recover, as we expect it to this year.”In Germany, house prices fell 10 per cent after the ECB started raising rates in 2022. But this year they are stabilising after 10-year mortgage rates dropped from almost 4 per cent last October to below 3.2 per cent, according to mortgage broker Dr Klein. “The more favourable interest rates since then have led to a noticeable increase in demand for mortgage financing, and the market has experienced a significant upturn since then,” said Michael Neumann, Dr Klein’s head of private clients.Marc van der Lee at the Dutch association of estate agents predicted that house prices in the Netherlands would rebound to record highs in the second quarter, mainly reflecting rising wages and a shortage of housing, but also lifted by lower mortgage costs.House prices in Germany are stabilising after 10-year mortgage rates dropped from almost 4% last October to below 3.2% © Ben Kilb/BloombergAs for further moves after Thursday’s meeting, the problem for Lagarde is that the steady fall of inflation from its peak of more than 10 per cent in 2022 has been interrupted. Data published last week showed that annual price growth accelerated again to 2.6 per cent in May from 2.4 per cent a month earlier.The Eurozone’s unexpectedly strong labour market is also keeping price pressures high, with collective wage growth rising back to a record pace of 4.7 per cent in the first quarter, and unemployment in the bloc falling to a new low of 6.4 per cent in April.Most economists think the recent strong data means the ECB will have to slightly lift both its inflation forecast of 2.3 per cent for this year and its GDP growth prediction of 0.6 per cent.Combined with signs that the Federal Reserve is unlikely to start cutting rates for several months — if at all this year — as a result of a strong US economy, investors have scaled back their bets to fewer than three quarter-point cuts by the ECB this year.The timing of this week’s rate cut will be unusual for the ECB because it usually only launches such monetary easing in response to a crisis, such as after the collapse of Lehman Brothers in 2008 or when Greece needed a series of bailouts in 2011. Even the ECB’s last rate cut in September 2019 was a reaction to weakening growth and inflation dropping below its 2 per cent target.“They are cutting into an improving situation, rather than a deteriorating one,” said Paul Hollingsworth, chief European economist at French bank BNP Paribas. “This means they will be in no rush to cut rates further, which makes another cut in July unlikely and steers them towards only cutting once every quarter.”Influential members of the ECB’s rate-setting governing council have already hinted they expect a gradual pace of easing, with only two further rate cuts likely this year.ECB chief economist Philip Lane told the Financial Times last month that rates were likely to “move down somewhat” over the year while staying in “restrictive territory”, which most economists assume means remaining above 3 per cent.Dutch central bank chief Klaas Knot told an event in London last week that based on the ECB’s latest forecasts its models showed “the optimal policy would have been broadly in line with three to four rate cuts” by year-end.For inflation to fall to the ECB’s 2 per cent target by next summer, it is counting on a combination of slowing wage growth, increasing worker productivity and shrinking company profit margins.If these trends fail to materialise and inflation stays uncomfortably high, Hollingsworth said rate-setters “may have to pause after the first couple of cuts”.Facing such uncertainty over the economic outlook, Lagarde is widely expected to resist giving much of a sign on the likely policy path, enabling the bank to preserve maximum flexibility on the extent of rate cuts for as long as possible.
Investors pull cash from ESG funds as performance lagsSustainably focused equity funds suffer net $40bn of outflows in 2024, the first sustained exodusGlobal investors are turning their backs on sustainably focused stock funds, as poor performance, a series of scandals and attacks from US Republicans hit enthusiasm for a much-hyped sector that has pulled in trillions of dollars of assets.Clients have withdrawn a net $40bn from environmental, social and governance (ESG) equity funds so far this year, according to research from Barclays, the first year that flows have trended negative. Redemptions, which include a record monthly net outflow of about $14bn in April, have been widespread across all main regions.The outflows mark a significant reversal for a sector that investors have flocked to in recent years, attracted by the claim that such funds could help change the world for the better while also making as much — or even more — money as traditional stock portfolios.Pierre-Yves Gauthier, head of strategy and co-founder at AlphaValue, a Paris-based independent research company, compared the sector to the tech bubble that burst in 2000. “ESG was a dotcom sort of hype 20 years later and now it has passed,” he said.Many funds have been hit by the poor performance of sectors such as clean energy, while they have also missed out on strong returns from fossil fuel companies that they actively avoided.Scandals such as one at German asset manager DWS — which agreed to pay $19mn to the US securities regulator in a greenwashing probe after being accused of making “materially misleading statements” — have also hit appetite for the sector.Congressional Republicans have attacked ESG investing as “radical partisan activism masquerading as responsible corporate governance”. The Republican-controlled House of Representatives has subpoenaed BlackRock and rival State Street as part of an investigation into the sector, which they say may violate antitrust laws.BlackRock’s Larry Fink said last year he did not use the term ESG anymore “because it’s been entirely weaponised”.Amid the backlash, US investors pulled $4.4bn from ESG equity funds in April, according to the Barclays research, which is based on data from fund tracker EPFR.Assets in BlackRock’s largest US ESG fund have halved from $25bn at the peak in late 2021 to $12.8bn in May. Last year, the company dropped the ESG fund from its popular “60/40” model portfolio of stocks and bonds.The largest US sustainable fund, Parnassus Core Equity, which has $28.4bn of assets, “has been one of the 10 biggest losers in terms of flows for two years straight”, Morningstar said in a report in May. “US ESG flows are negative, and it is probably a testimony to what is happening in the context of the US with a very polarised and politicised debate around it which has frozen the behaviour on that front,” said Elodie Laugel, chief responsible investment officer at Amundi, which is the second-largest sustainable fund manager globally after BlackRock.But the most recent data highlights that the pullback from ESG has reached Europe, the strategy’s traditional stronghold. ESG equity fund outflows in the region were $1.9bn in April.Global investors’ appetite for ESG peaked at the end of 2021, just before Russia invaded Ukraine, leading to a surge in gas prices and fossil fuel stocks. Sharp interest rate rises by central banks in 2022 to combat inflation, meanwhile, punished high-growth technology companies, which are typically favoured by ESG funds over oil and gas businesses.Over the past 12 months, global sustainable equity funds made an 11 per cent return, compared with 21 per cent for conventional stock funds, according to a May report from JPMorgan.“Clearly, the fact that performance has not been good for these funds over the past two years . . . has discouraged some investors,” said Hortense Bioy, global director of sustainability research at Morningstar.Suggesting that some ESG products might have failed to live up to their promise, Jamie Franco, global head of sustainable investments at asset manager TCW, said some funds launched in 2020-21 “probably went out a little too quickly [and] probably took advantage of some ESG marketing sentiment”.But she added that some investors continued to pursue ESG goals in separately managed accounts that were not necessarily captured by fund flow figures.While ESG equity funds have been hammered by withdrawals, ESG bond funds have had 13 straight months of inflows through to April, according to Barclays. So far this year, ESG bond funds have raked in $22bn. Todd Cort, a professor at the Yale School of Management who specialises in sustainable investing, said that although the ESG label might increasingly fall out of use, underlying social and environmental challenges would remain.“Behind the curtain, there will be substantially more effort by investors to understand environmental and social risks,” he said. “That will continue to grow, and I actually don’t care too much if we continue to call it ESG.”
New York governor suspends controversial Manhattan congestion pricing planNew York’s governor has suspended a controversial plan to impose a congestion charge on cars driving through central Manhattan, citing the cost of living crisis, just weeks before it was due to take effect.“Hard working New Yorkers are getting hammered on costs, and they and the economic vitality of our city must be protected,” Governor Kathy Hochul said at a press conference. The scheme, which was due to take effect on June 30 and would have been the first such congestion pricing plan in the US, would have charged drivers for entering a zone of Manhattan south of Central Park.