28-02-2025: 'A VERY, VERY GOOD TELEVISION'.—
ESCENA: Es el
28/02/2025. Trifulca entre perdedores. EE. UU. da por perdida la guerra de Ucrania iniciada en
2022, el histórico año en el que el presidente de la Reserva Federal proclamó compungido que un '
reset', un '
get back' al equilibrio general, aunque doloroso, '
it's a good thing' (Powell, Fed, 15-jun, 21-sep, 2-nov-2022); con ello significaba que procedía sustituir el modelo estructural vigente desde los 1980 y dar la suelta a otro menos anarcoide, más planificado, sin sobrevaloraciones obscenamente anticapitalistas ni de inmuebles ni de Bolsa ni de Deuda ni del dólar. Una guerra, la de Ucrania, que el anglo patrocinó con la sola finalidad de administrar el proceso estructural dictado por el ortograma capitalista. Creía que retardaría a la UE y que expandiría un moderador metafísico llamado Demanda Agregada. Una reacción prevista y entendible, pero que solo ha servido para hundir más a EE. UU. como economía 'de activos' adicta al endeudamiento. Una guerra que, en el terreno geopolítico, solo ha servido para unir más a Rusia con China y fortalecer al grupo BRICS, y ahora, para extender el sector público supraestatal europeo a una rus histórica, la de Kiev, anticipando un futuro Eje Finisterre-Vladivostok. El Gobierno de EE. UU. asume, por fin, ¡qué remedio!, aquel trance anunciado por el Gran Capital en 2022. Y se dispone a
dar la recesión coyuntural extraordinaria asociada al mismo, pero en un clima de resentimiento cínico con peligro de guerra civil contra el sistema declarada por los contestatarios conservadores del modelo muerto, que piensan que portándose maleducadamente se consiguen mejor las cosas; guerra civil que, desvanecido
el sueño americano —sueño para el que hay que estar muy dormido—, ganaría el Gran Capital de la mano de esas 3/4 partes de la población que ya se sabe irremisiblemente desamparada. Hoy, fuera hace frío. Estamos en el Despacho Oval de la Casa Blanca, en Washington. Dos sillones tapizados de seda amarilla —el color imperial de China—, de estilo chippendale —inglés—, pero con sabor 'a la reine' —francés—. Chimenea encendida. Ayudantes y periodistas, muchos con cámaras de televisión, casi todos de pie. Los EE. UU., representados por su presidente, Trump, anfitrión insolente de 'realities shows' e inmobiliario sobrendeudado que acaba de sacar cientos de millones de dólares con sus propias criptomierdas,; y por su vicepresidente valentón, Vance, 'escritor posliberal' según dice de sí mismo, en realidad, exreportero militar, exempleado de la industria del DOP (dinero de otras personas) y antiguo, o quizá aún, adversario político interno del primero. Ambos, vestidos exactamente igual, con los colores nacionales: traje azul oscuro, insignia de su bandera en la solapa, camisa blanca, corbata roja y zapatos derby, no oxford. Por los 19 óblast que le quedan a Ucrania, de los 25 que tenía antes de la contienda, un donnadie, Zelensky, actorucho y dictadorzuelo rusófobo, pero rusófono, vestido de militar acovachado en su camareta: de negro, con camiseta de manga larga y cuello 'henley' abrochado, con el 'rurikid' medieval bordado encima de la tetilla izquierda y pantalón y calzado de faena cuartelera. En varias ocasiones, luchará de forma sonora contra el exceso de secreción de su cavidad nasal izquierda y lanzará por lo bajini improperios vulgares y ofensivos en ruso: 'suka blyat' —'сука блять'— equivalente a 'hijo de perra'. No hay banderas ucranianas. Solo gringas.
“I’ve empowered you to be a tough guy.”VANCE: “For four years, the United States of America, we had a president who stood up at press conferences and talked tough about Vladimir Putin, and then Putin invaded Ukraine and destroyed a significant chunk of the country. The path to peace and the path to prosperity is, maybe, engaging in diplomacy. We tried the pathway of Joe Biden, of thumping our chest and pretending that the president of the United States’ words mattered more than the president of the United States’ actions. What makes America a good country is America engaging in diplomacy. That’s what President Trump is doing.”
ZELENSKY: “Can I ask you?”
VANCE: “Sure. Yeah.”
ZELENSKY: “OK. So he (Putin) occupied it, our parts, big parts of Ukraine, parts of east and Crimea. So he occupied it in 2014. So during a lot of years — I’m not speaking about just Biden, but those times was (Barack) Obama, then President Obama, then President Trump, then President Biden, now President Trump. And God bless, now, President Trump will stop him. But during 2014, nobody stopped him. He just occupied and took. He killed people. You know what the...”
TRUMP: “2015?”
ZELENSKY: “2014.”
TRUMP: “Oh, 2014? I was not here.”
VANCE: “That’s exactly right.”
ZELENSKY: “Yes, but during 2014 ‘til 2022, the situation is the same, that people have been dying on the contact line. Nobody stopped him. You know that we had conversations with him, a lot of conversations, my bilateral conversation. And we signed with him, me, like, you, president, in 2019, I signed with him the deal. I signed with him, (French President Emmanuel) Macron and (former German Chancellor Angela) Merkel. We signed ceasefire. Ceasefire. All of them told me that he will never go… But after that, he broke the ceasefire, he killed our people, and he didn’t exchange prisoners. We signed the exchange of prisoners. But he didn’t do it. What kind of diplomacy, JD, you are speaking about? What do you mean?”
VANCE: “I’m talking about the kind of diplomacy that’s going to end the destruction of your country. Mr. President, with respect, I think it’s disrespectful for you to come into the Oval Office to try to litigate this in front of the American media. Right now, you guys are going around and forcing conscripts to the front lines because you have manpower problems. You should be thanking the president for trying to bring an end to this conflict.”
ZELENSKY: “Have you ever been to Ukraine that you say what problems we have?”
VANCE: “I have been to...”
ZELENSKY: “Come once.”
VANCE: “I’ve actually watched and seen the stories, and I know that what happens is you bring people, you bring them on a propaganda tour, Mr. President. Do you disagree that you’ve had problems, bringing people into your military?”
ZELENSKY: “We have problems...”
VANCE: “And do you think that is respectful to come to the Oval Office of the United States of America and attack the administration that is trying to prevent the destruction of your country?”
ZELENSKY: “A lot of questions. Let’s start from the beginning.”
VANCE: “Sure.”
ZELENSKY: “First of all, during the war, everybody has problems, even you. But you have nice ocean and don’t feel now. But you will feel it in the future. God bless...”
(Trump erupts when ZELENSKY suggests the U.S. might ‘feel it in the future’.)
TRUMP: “You don’t know that. You don’t know that. Don’t tell us what we’re going to feel. We’re trying to solve a problem. Don’t tell us what we’re going to feel.”
ZELENSKY: “I’m not telling you. I am answering on these questions.”
TRUMP: “Because you’re in no position to dictate that.”
VANCE: “That’s exactly what you’re doing.”
TRUMP: “You are in no position to dictate what we’re going to feel. We’re going to feel very good.”
ZELENSKY: “You will feel influenced.”
TRUMP: “We are going to feel very good and very strong.”
ZELENSKY: “I am telling you. You will feel influenced.”
TRUMP: “You’re, right now, not in a very good position. You’ve allowed yourself to be in a very bad position...”
ZELENSKY: “From the very beginning of the war...”
TRUMP: “You’re not in a good position. You don’t have the cards right now. With us, you start having cards.”
ZELENSKY: “I’m not playing cards. I’m very serious, Mr. President. I’m very serious.”
TRUMP: “You’re playing cards. You’re gambling with the lives of millions of people. You’re gambling with World War III.”
ZELENSKY: “What are you speaking about?”
TRUMP: “You’re gambling with World War III. And what you’re doing is very disrespectful to the country, this country that’s backed you far more than a lot of people said they should have.”
VANCE: “Have you said thank you once?”
ZELENSKY: “A lot of times. Even today.”
VANCE: “No, in this entire meeting. You went to Pennsylvania and campaigned for the opposition in October.”
ZELENSKY: “No.”
VANCE: “Offer some words of appreciation for the United States of America and the president who’s trying to save your country.”
ZELENSKY: “Please. You think that if you will speak very loudly about the war, you can...”
TRUMP: “He’s not speaking loudly. He’s not speaking loudly. Your country is in big trouble.”
ZELENSKY: “Can I answer...”
TRUMP: “No, no. You’ve done a lot of talking. Your country is in big trouble.”
ZELENSKY: “I know. I know.”
TRUMP: “You’re not winning. You’re not winning this. You have a damn good chance of coming out OK because of us.”
ZELENSKY: “Mr. President, we are staying in our country, staying strong. From the very beginning of the war, we’ve been alone. And we are thankful. I said thanks.”
TRUMP: “If you didn’t have our military equipment, this war would have been over in two weeks.”
ZELENSKY: “In three days. I heard it from Putin. In three days.”
TRUMP: “Maybe less. It’s going to be a very hard thing to do business like this, I tell you.
VANCE: “Just say thank you.”
ZELENSKY: “I said a lot of times, thank you, to American people.”
VANCE: “Accept that there are disagreements, and let’s go litigate those disagreements rather than trying to fight it out in the American media when you’re wrong. We know that you’re wrong.”
TRUMP: “But you see, I think it’s good for the American people to see what’s going on. I think it’s very important. That’s why I kept this going so long. You have to be thankful.”
ZELENSKY: “I’m thankful.”
TRUMP: “You don’t have the cards. You’re buried there. People are dying. You’re running low on soldiers. It would be a damn good thing, and then you tell us, ‘I don’t want a ceasefire. I don’t want a ceasefire, I want to go, and I want this.’ Look, if you can get a ceasefire right now, I tell you, you take it so the bullets stop flying and your men stop getting killed.”
ZELENSKY: “Of course we want to stop the war. But I said to you, with guarantees.”
TRUMP: “Are you saying you don’t want a ceasefire? I want a ceasefire. Because you’ll get a ceasefire faster than an agreement.”
ZELENSKY: “Ask our people about a ceasefire, what they think.”
TRUMP: “That wasn’t with me. That was with a guy named Biden, who is not a smart person.”
ZELENSKY: “This is your president. It was your president.”
TRUMP: “Excuse me. That was with Obama, who gave you sheets, and I gave you Javelins. I gave you the Javelins to take out all those tanks. Obama gave you sheets. In fact, the statement is Obama gave sheets, and Trump gave Javelins. You’ve got to be more thankful because let me tell you, you don’t have the cards. With us, you have the cards, but without us, you don’t have any cards.”
VANCE, restating a reporter’s question: “She is asking what if Russia breaks the ceasefire.”
TRUMP: “What, if anything? What if the bomb drops on your head right now? OK, what if they broke it? I don’t know, they broke it with Biden because Biden, they didn’t respect him. They didn’t respect Obama. They respect me. Let me tell you, Putin went through a hell of a lot with me. He went through a phony witch hunt... All I can say is this. He might have broken deals with Obama and Bush, and he might have broken them with Biden. He did, maybe. Maybe he did. I don’t know what happened, but he didn’t break them with me. He wants to make a deal. I don’t know if you can make a deal.
(Turning toward ZELENSKY.)
The problem is I’ve empowered you to be a tough guy, and I don’t think you’d be a tough guy without the United States. And your people are very brave. But you’re either going to make a deal or we’re out. And if we’re out, you’ll fight it out. I don’t think it’s going to be pretty, but you’ll fight it out. But you don’t have the cards. But once we sign that deal, you’re in a much better position, but you’re not acting at all thankful. And that’s not a nice thing. I’ll be honest. That’s not a nice thing.
(And addressing the audience.)
All right, I think we’ve seen enough. What do you think? This is going to be great television. I will say that.”
Este desencuentro forma parte del
US-exit.
Tanto el BR-exit, como el US-exit son más profundos de lo que parece.
Gracias a este ninguneo, la UE va camino de la unión aduanera con una de las rusias, de momento.
Piensen en que, en los albores de la codificación (código napoleónico, 1804) se decía, y aún no ha sido refutado, que «
un código civil es más constituyente que la mejor de las constituciones».
En la UE, desde 2016, tenemos una rama del Derecho donde ya no se habla de armonización: el Derecho Aduanero. El nuevo
Código Aduanero de la Unión prohíbe expresamente que los Estados miembros creen Derecho Aduanero. Y resulta que el Derecho Aduanero, cuya materia prima es el comercio, está plagado de conceptos sustantivos que no son aduaneros, sino civiles y mercantiles.
El anglo cree que goza de un maravilloso 'common law' en el que mandan la costumbre y la jurisprudencia creativa, contrapuesto al supuestamente rígido 'civil law' continental, basado en códigos. Luego resulta que sus 'regulaciones', tan consuetudinarias y jurisprudenciales ellas, son imposibles de estudiar con tanto caso particular ('case method').
Su sistema estuvo bien cuando tocaba conquistar el Oeste americano, todos tenían un rifle y una soga, y los pocos que sabían leer y escribir coincidían en tener una Biblia. Pero
hoy no hay que conquistar el Oeste, sino comerciar con el Este.
Los conceptos jurídicos compartidos que hay que manejar obligatoriamente en el Derecho Aduanero de la Unión son más constituyentes de 'Europa' que el mismísimo euro.
Además, el Derecho Aduanero chino se parece más al de la Unión que al del anglo. Y China ha promovido un acuerdo comercial regional basado en conceptos comunes parecido a la UE, la Asociación Económica Integral Regional, RCEP.
Ni que decir tiene que el Derecho Aduanero ruso es aún más parecido al nuestro que el chino. Y también tiene su puesta en común conceptual, la Unión Económica Euroasiática, EAEU.
El anglo y su supuesto desregulacionismo rechinan como un repollo con lazo, repollo maloliente taladrado de agujeros de gusano de activos ficticios y sobrendeudamiento.
Se ve bien en la Contabilidad, el cemento del comercio. Tienen trabajo, desde luego, los contables de las empresas que han de rendir cuentas tanto en la UE (normas contables
IFRS —International Financial Reporting Standards—), como en EE. UU. (normas contables
US GAAP —Generally Accepted Accounting Principles—). Las IFRS están más basadas en principios y son menos prescriptivas. Las US GAAP son detalladas y con multitud de reglas específicas, excepciones a ellas y excepciones de las excepciones. Por mi desempeño profesional sé lo mucho que difieren las dos contabilidades, lo sencillo que es entender la nuestra y lo farragosa que resulta la estadounidense.
La incorporación de Ucrania a la UE implica inmediatamente la extensión de la vigencia territorial del Código Aduanero de la Unión a una rus de las rusias. Con eso está dicho todo.
En Latinoamérica, el anglo tiene un problemón porque los Derechos Positivos de los países están calcados, respectivamente, de los de España, Portugal y Francia. No obstante, hay diferencias y se tiene que tener cuidado cuando se busca en internet: te puede salir la regulación de otro país que no es el que quieres.
En suma, parafraseando 'El Gatopardo', de Lampedusa, «Era necesario que todo cambiara si queríamos que todo siguiera como estaba; y
el 28-02-2025 cambiamos todo, pero nada sigue como estaba».
No cabe duda de que el 28-02-2025 es el día oficial de la 'Suelta & Desamparo'.
