PPCC: Pisitófilos Creditófagos. Veranito 2025

[asustadísimos]

[Aviso de corrección de error mecanográfico: en el comentario anterior...
https://www.transicionestructural.net/index.php?topic=2628.msg247682#msg247682
... quise poner «estamos en la plenitud de los tiempos pospoularcapitalistas». Añado ahora que todos tenemos miedo. Nuestro deber es administrarlo.]

[CHOSEN]

La foto es cuanto menos extraña.
No se que pintan ahí Italia y Finlandia, por ejemplo, en vez de Polonia.
Rutte no se que hace ahí tampoco.
Es todo muy raro.
Demasiado raro.
Solo falta un judío israelita decapitando un bebé.

[Derby]

https://thehill.com/business/5458174-home-sales-rate-slowing-redfin/

Homes are selling at the slowest summer pace in a decade: Redfin

*In Florida, homes are sitting on the market for over 90 days in some cities
*High prices and elevated mortgage rates have cooled demand, boosting supply
*Affordable markets across the Midwest remain hot

High prices and economic uncertainty are keeping homes on the market longer, making last month the slowest July in a decade.

The typical home that went under contract in July spent 43 days on the market — up from 35 days a year earlier and the longest span for any July since 2015, according to new Redfin data.

It’s another sign that buyers are gaining leverage after years of tight inventory, though the extent of that advantage varies by region.

In Florida, homes are taking much longer to sell, over 90 days in some cities. West Palm Beach (95 days), Fort Lauderdale (92 days) and Miami (86 days) were the slowest major markets in the country last month.

Demand in the Sunshine State has eased after a red-hot pandemic-era surge pushed prices higher and fueled a construction boom. Rising insurance costs and the threat of natural disasters have also deterred buyers.

Homes in other Sunbelt boom towns, including Austin, Texas (68 days), Phoenix (67 days) and San Antonio (66 days), are also lingering on the market longer than the national average.

Elevated mortgage rates and high prices dampened the spring homebuying season. Coupled with uncertainty over President Trump’s tariffs and a cooling job market, it’s no surprise families are staying put.

One silver lining: slower demand has helped boost the housing supply across much of the country, giving buyers more bargaining power than they’ve had in years. Sellers are making concessions, and fewer homes are going above asking price compared to just a few years ago.

That said, many cities — especially more affordable markets in the Midwest — remain hot.

In Indianapolis, the typical home that went under contract last month spent just 17 days on the market — the shortest span for any major market, according to Redfin. Homes also sold quickly in Kansas City, Mo. (18 days), Warren, Mich. (18 days) and Detroit (19 days).

July’s time on the market reflects more of a return to normal than a historic slowdown. At 43 days, it was roughly in line with the national July norm from 2014 to 2016, Redfin data shows.

Back in the summer of 2012, in the aftermath of the Great Recession, the typical U.S. home lingered for 69 days.

The 10 major metros where homes lingered the longest in July, according to Redfin

West Palm Beach, Fla.: 95 days
Fort Lauderdale, Fla: 92 days
Miami: 86 days
Jacksonville, Fla: 75 days
Austin, Tex: 68 days
Phoenix: 67 days
San Antonio: 66 days
Nashville, Tenn.: 60 days
Las Vegas: 55 days
Charlotte, N.C.: 55 days

Redfin’s median days-on-market calculation excludes homes that spent more than a year listed before going under contract.

[Negrule]

En cuanto bajen los tipos de interés tengo la sensación que habrá un boom. Aquí desde que empezaron a bajar en verano del 24 el desmadre ha sido total, en precio y en ventas. No tengo ninguna duda.

https://thehill.com/business/5458174-home-sales-rate-slowing-redfin/

Homes are selling at the slowest summer pace in a decade: Redfin

*In Florida, homes are sitting on the market for over 90 days in some cities
*High prices and elevated mortgage rates have cooled demand, boosting supply
*Affordable markets across the Midwest remain hot

High prices and economic uncertainty are keeping homes on the market longer, making last month the slowest July in a decade.

The typical home that went under contract in July spent 43 days on the market — up from 35 days a year earlier and the longest span for any July since 2015, according to new Redfin data.

It’s another sign that buyers are gaining leverage after years of tight inventory, though the extent of that advantage varies by region.

In Florida, homes are taking much longer to sell, over 90 days in some cities. West Palm Beach (95 days), Fort Lauderdale (92 days) and Miami (86 days) were the slowest major markets in the country last month.

Demand in the Sunshine State has eased after a red-hot pandemic-era surge pushed prices higher and fueled a construction boom. Rising insurance costs and the threat of natural disasters have also deterred buyers.

Homes in other Sunbelt boom towns, including Austin, Texas (68 days), Phoenix (67 days) and San Antonio (66 days), are also lingering on the market longer than the national average.

Elevated mortgage rates and high prices dampened the spring homebuying season. Coupled with uncertainty over President Trump’s tariffs and a cooling job market, it’s no surprise families are staying put.

One silver lining: slower demand has helped boost the housing supply across much of the country, giving buyers more bargaining power than they’ve had in years. Sellers are making concessions, and fewer homes are going above asking price compared to just a few years ago.

That said, many cities — especially more affordable markets in the Midwest — remain hot.

In Indianapolis, the typical home that went under contract last month spent just 17 days on the market — the shortest span for any major market, according to Redfin. Homes also sold quickly in Kansas City, Mo. (18 days), Warren, Mich. (18 days) and Detroit (19 days).

July’s time on the market reflects more of a return to normal than a historic slowdown. At 43 days, it was roughly in line with the national July norm from 2014 to 2016, Redfin data shows.

Back in the summer of 2012, in the aftermath of the Great Recession, the typical U.S. home lingered for 69 days.

The 10 major metros where homes lingered the longest in July, according to Redfin

West Palm Beach, Fla.: 95 days
Fort Lauderdale, Fla: 92 days
Miami: 86 days
Jacksonville, Fla: 75 days
Austin, Tex: 68 days
Phoenix: 67 days
San Antonio: 66 days
Nashville, Tenn.: 60 days
Las Vegas: 55 days
Charlotte, N.C.: 55 days

Redfin’s median days-on-market calculation excludes homes that spent more than a year listed before going under contract.

[Derby]

https://x.com/_Investinq/status/1957448802647830919

[Derby]

https://x.com/_Investinq/status/1957806765296239073

[Derby]

https://www.baha.com/Fico-Ukraine-must-be-ready-to-talk-territorial-changes/news/details/64676090

Fico: Ukraine must be ready to talk territorial changes


EPA/MARTIN DIVISEK

Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico said on Tuesday that Ukraine has to be open to discussing territorial changes if it wants peace negotiations to be successful.

In a video posted on Facebook, Fico reiterated that Ukraine's NATO membership is an issue that shouldn't even be discussed. "The first basic prerequisite for ending the conflict is the understanding that Ukraine cannot become a member state of NATO," he pointed out, adding that he was criticized for this stance in the past.

The prime minister slammed the European Union leaders for waiting for "[United States President] Donald Trump to show us the path towards peace." However, he said he expects a peace agreement to be reached "as soon as possible," and pledged to support Ukraine's accession to the European Union.

[Derby]

Todavía es un borrador...

https://www.baha.com/EU-said-to-return-draft-trade-statement-to-US/news/details/64674338

EU said to return draft trade statement to US

The European Union has returned a draft of the joint trade statement to the United States, a step in putting their recent agreement into writing.

"I can confirm that we have sent back the draft joint statement to the US," EU spokesman Olof Gill said on Tuesday. His remarks were cited by New York Times reporter Jeanna Smialek on X. The content of the draft has not been disclosed by the bloc at this time.

[Derby]

https://l.businessinsider.com/s/vb/GuK02brA9_Nl1G9KXnujYp6tpHqMJSBbfS0nkgx5y5C2lOKXanLPxSIY7mskASUL69GEx4cXw0fUuiC8qxXJZilUMH7egoRF1FbHi4eqgNUgne_L4YtXbMxJtpYANLUBZs37_Q1xdDDfreHv8lH8tnR4q5KYyYKLqKb1QQ/Z8s1eeSZeSddeC3PUe7_lauKIS2cdrE4/12

The scariest job market number

It’s not a statistic that gets much attention. Not like CPI, core PCE, or PPI — all strutting into the spotlight every month, making headlines and market moves.

Lurking under the hood of unemployment data, you’ll find it. Look even closer, and you’ll see a huge red flag.

The official US labor force, which measures the number of working-age Americans actively working or looking for work, is shrinking at a rate usually seen during the throes of economic disaster.

The consequences could be perilous, Callie Cox, the chief market strategist at Ritholtz Wealth Management, writes for BI.

For years, the number of working-age Americans entering the workforce has outpaced those leaving, helping to fuel economic expansion.

Things have changed. Over the last three consecutive months, the US has lost 790,000 workers.



Where have all those workers gone?

One factor is immigration.A 90% drop in border encounters over the past year has cut the influx of foreign-born workers  — a group that historically has played a big role in supporting the US labor force, Callie highlights.

At the same time, other challenges — such as return-to-office mandates and high childcare costs  — have led to fewer women entering or staying in the workforce.

Wait a minute … if workers are scarce, companies will fight to hire them, right?

Take the AI talent wars. With a tiny pool of elite engineers, tech giants like Meta have spent billions chasing a handful of workers — and competitors like Microsoft are trying to snatch them away.

But not every company has pockets as deep as Meta and Microsoft. As labor shortages drag on, many businesses may start to reduce hiring, expansion, and investment.

This sends ripples through consumer spending, which drives nearly 70% of the US economy. Fewer workers means less spending, which slows growth.

Reversing the trend demands smarter policy and stronger economic momentum, Callie writes. But right now, neither seems in sight.(...)

[Derby]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2025-08-13/americans-are-getting-priced-out-of-homeownership-at-record-rates

Americans Are Getting Priced Out of Homeownership at Record Rates

More Americans are getting priced out of homeownership. The long-term implications could reshape society.

(...)In fact, some experts are advising homeowners to cash in their equity and reduce their exposure. These days even older owners with smaller, low-interest mortgages should consider trading in for a rental, says Daryl Fairweather, an economist for Redfin. “I think they overvalue staying in a home,” she says. “Homes are expensive.” America as a society of renters might not be all bad.

[sudden and sharp]

La foto es cuanto menos extraña.
No se que pintan ahí Italia y Finlandia, por ejemplo, en vez de Polonia.
Rutte no se que hace ahí tampoco.
Es todo muy raro.
Demasiado raro.
Solo falta un judío israelita decapitando un bebé.

Está el británico.   

[Derby]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-08-19/finance-industry-seeks-overhaul-of-global-crypto-rules-for-banks

Finance Industry Seeks Overhaul of Global Crypto Rules for Banks



The Bank for International Settlements in Basel, Switzerland.Photographer: Christophe Bosset/Bloomberg

The world’s major financial lobbying groups called on regulators to pause the upcoming implementation of tough new standards governing banks’ cryptocurrency dealings and revisit measures they argue are needlessly onerous.

In a joint letter to the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision, the trade associations said policymakers should “seek updated information” on the use cases for the distributed ledger technology that underpins digital assets, and weigh “any appropriate redesign and recalibration” of the standards due to be adopted in 2026.

The rules, which include steep capital surcharges for banks that hold cryptocurrencies, were agreed in 2022 against a backdrop of crypto market upheaval and a string of scandals that stirred concerns about financial contagion. At the time, top banking executives including JPMorgan Chase & Co. Chief Executive Officer Jamie Dimon publicly lambasted the industry.

Since then, crypto has pushed into the financial mainstream — particularly in the US, where President Donald Trump has pushed through legislation to support the industry. Major global banks like JPMorgan are now making inroads into the asset class, in areas ranging from custody to facilitating trading and stablecoin issuance.

The Tuesday letter’s signatories include the International Institute of Finance, The International Swaps & Derivatives Association and the Global Blockchain Business Council, as well as the US’s Banking Policy Industry, along with regional markets associations for the US, Europe and Asia.

The Basel Committee had no immediate comment.

People familiar with the global regulatory approach have previously acknowledged that the incoming standards could be contentious given the changes in market environment since they were agreed. A supervisor at one national regulator, who asked not to be named, said he did not know if his jurisdiction would implement the new rules when they take effect.

“Inconsistent implementation will jeopardize the goal of establishing a minimum standard that enables a level playing field, mitigates cross-border risk spillovers and prevents market fragmentation,” the associations wrote in their letter.

[Derby]

https://www.baha.com/Putin-said-to-have-asked-China-as-guarantor-for-peace-deal/news/details/64676502

Putin said to have asked China as guarantor for peace deal

Russian President Vladimir Putin requested China to act as a guarantor for a peace agreement with the United States and European nations regarding Ukraine, Axios reported on Tuesday.

The media added that, in recent discussions with US President Trump, Putin indicated that he would be open to discussing security assurances for Ukraine as part of a possible peace agreement. In order to help enforce the terms of the deal, he suggested China as a "guarantor," a neutral party.

Zelensky stated at his Monday discussion with Trump that he is open to talking about territorial concerns, but emphasized that he and Putin must negotiate them in person. Trump agreed.

[Derby]

https://www.ft.com/content/6601990a-851f-4bb5-a644-5c85b5d87614

It’s a run to hedge the dollar, not a run on the dollar

Hedge hogging


© Bloomberg

The dollar suffered its worst start to a year since 1973, and its summer rebound has been limp and halting. The latest jobs report — and the Trump administration’s reaction to it — hasn’t helped.

To many people, this makes perfect sense. President Donald Trump’s haphazard economic policymaking has understandably triggered fears that overseas investors could head for the exit.

An FT survey of American economists recently indicated that over 90 per cent worried that the “haven” status of US stocks and bonds could be ending. After all, why stick around in a country where economic growth, norms, institutional quality and even the rule of law all seem to be eroding?

This is why the historically close correlation between the greenback and the level of US Treasury yields seems to have broken down earlier this year:

And yet . . . 

The actual data doesn’t indicate much, if any, withdrawal from US financial markets. In fact, the latest data released by the US Treasury once again indicates that foreign investors just can’t quit buying US bonds and stocks.

As the Goldman Sachs chart below shows (zoomable version here), foreign investors sold a net $92bn worth of US assets in April, but have since then bought over $545bn worth of stocks, Treasuries and corporate bonds.



So how can we square the dollar’s ongoing weakness with the lack of any actual evidence that investors are heading for the American exit?

Quite easily, actually. The pressure on the dollar appears to stem from an investor rush to hedge their exposure to the US currency, rather than simply selling US assets. As the BIS noted in a report earlier this summer:

The unusual depreciation of the dollar during a risk-off episode initially led to commentary about a broad-based loss of confidence in dollar assets and a diminished role for the dollar in global capital markets. However, available evidence suggests that a more plausible explanation for the slide in the dollar during this period is the hedging activity of non-US investors to mitigate losses on unhedged dollar asset exposures.

Institutional investors from outside the United States with unhedged dollar exposures took steps to reduce their currency risk. Investors retained their holdings of US assets but added to their foreign exchange (FX) swap and forward overlays to reduce their exposure to further declines in the US dollar. In April and May 2025, the largest declines in the US dollar occurred during Asian trading hours, suggesting that the ex post hedging activity of Asian investors played an important role.

Basically, a decade of robust returns from US financial markets and the expense of protecting yourself against FX movements meant that many international investors have not been particularly diligent about hedging their dollar exposures. After all, why would you? It probably seemed like buying pricey insurance on an impregnable, indestructible house.

For example, the “hedge ratio” of Japan’s sprawling life insurance industry fell from about 60 per cent of assets in 2021 to 40 per cent at the end of last year. The Dutch pension plan system’s hedge ratio fell to just 25 per cent. In countries like Canada, the hedge ratios were often even lower.

However, when the dollar first started sliding earlier this year it triggered a mad dash by many investors to hedge their exposure to it — while still hanging on to their Treasuries, Nvidia stock, IBM bonds or mid-market private equity allocation. Suddenly, the US house looked all too vulnerable to fires and break-ins.

Hedging a currency typically happens by selling FX swaps and forwards, different types of derivatives. Although they don’t entail selling US assets, they are in practice selling US dollars, which — if it happens with enough force — can alter the trajectory of even the most liquid currencies in the world.

The BIS pinned Asian investors as the prime movers of this rush-to-hedge, but European investors probably contributed a lot to the move as well.

The best example of can be found in Denmark, where the local pension industry helpfully reports monthly data. Sam Lynton-Brown, head of global macro strategy at BNP Paribas, estimates that Danish pension funds have reduced their unhedged US dollar exposure from about $90bn at the end of 2024 to $60bn at the end of June. That has lifted the industry’s hedge ratio from 61 per cent to 74 per cent of its assets.

We only have first quarter data for the Dutch pension system, Europe’s largest. But even in the first three months of the year — in other words, before the “Liquidation Day” mayhem of April — Dutch pension plans pared their unhedged exposure to the US dollar from ca $450bn to $400bn. That raised the hedge ratio from a record low of 25 per cent to 28 per cent at the end of March.



As Lynton-Brown points out, that’s a “huge” reduction to dollar exposures in a short period of time, and overwhelmingly from hedging rather than selling. And there could be more under way:

It’s difficult to argue that there’s going to be a lot more dollar hedging or selling from Danish funds, given that they’ve already reduced their exposure by a third. But it’s easy to argue that we are probably going to see a lot more from Dutch funds . . . [Elsewhere], in some other cases the reallocation is done, but in many it hasn’t even started yet.

The global aggregative impact of this rush to hedge on the dollar is hard to say for certain, but we can estimate it by looking at a model that explains most of a currency’s movements and looking at what the currency has actually done.

After all, when a currency’s normal relationship with things like interest rate differentials and commodity prices breaks down, it could be because of gargantuan money flows warping things.
This seems to have been the case with the greenback in 2025. For example, the dollar has since February — when the Trump administration first started rolling out its new tariff regime on Canada and Mexico — traded consistently weaker against the euro than what a BNP fair-value model would suggest.



As you can see, the dollar is now actually trading a smidgen stronger than its estimated fair value. But the median estimate of analysts polled by Bloomberg is that the dollar will weaken to under 1.2 per euro next year.

And in a sign of the times, Morgan Stanley this week rolled out a new centralised repository to allow clients to track FX hedging ratios.

[Derby]

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2025/08/19/for-all-the-noise-trump-is-ever-less-relevant-on-ukraine/

For all the noise, Trump is ever less relevant on Ukraine, Ambrose Evans-Pritchard

This vain, vacillating, gullible US president no longer commands the West


The US president cannot dictate terms to the Europeans or to Kyiv Credit: Ukrainian Presidency/Anadolu via Getty Images

BAE Systems is quietly ramping up production of 155mm artillery shells at Glascoed in rural South Wales. Output will have increased 16-fold from 2022 levels by the end of this year.

Two months ago the defence group opened a new factory in Sheffield making gun barrels for the M777 lightweight howitzer, to be supplied directly to Ukraine.

Poland is now producing a million bullets a day, up five times from pre-war levels. Annual output of Grot rifles will have risen six times to 100,000 by next year.

Germany’s RheinMetall will soon be making 1.1 million howitzer shells a year, up from pre-war levels of 70,000. It is in talks to make armoured vehicles at Volkswagen’s surplus plant in Osnabrück. The weapons company is now worth more than VW, Munich Re or Deutsche Bank on the German bourse. A sign of the times.

Europe’s missile conglomerate MBDA is building a plant with Raytheon in Germany that will produce more American Patriot air defence missiles than America itself.

Production of the Franco-Italian SAMP/T – Europe’s answer to the Patriot – has risen fivefold compared to the original 2022 plan. The SAMP/T has largely closed the technology gap, lifting the range to 93 miles.

And about time too, you might say. Europe should have rearmed after Vladimir Putin first attacked Ukraine in 2014. It should have put its economy on a war footing the moment he tried to take the whole country in 2022.

But rearmament is at last happening – minus the usual free-riders. The wheels were set in motion before Donald Trump returned to office. The pace is not warp speed but it is already changing the Atlantic balance of military power, and that is the larger story behind this week’s slapstick theatrics at the White House.

While Trump still commands the daily news cycle, he no longer commands the West and no longer commands the fate of Ukraine.

“With each month that passes, America is losing its strategic leverage,” said Professor Alan Riley from the Atlantic Council, a US think tank. “Trump cannot dictate terms to the Europeans or to Kyiv.”

While I think the European Union in its current structure is largely a nuisance, the great nation states of Europe still pack a punch. Europe as a whole has 33 million manufacturing jobs, while the US has fewer than 13 million.

When push comes to shove, it is Europe that has the skills, factories and industrial infrastructure for massive military expansion. It is Europe that is becoming the new arsenal of democracy, though few yet realise it.

Trump is certainly not in a position to force Ukraine to commit strategic suicide by giving up its unconquered “fortress belt” in the Donetsk oblast, the defensive line built up over 11 years that protects the towns of Sloviansk, Kramatorsk and Kostyantynivka, as well as the military-industrial ecosystem close behind the front.



Putin failed to break the fortress belt in 2022 and has had no luck since despite colossal losses. The UK Ministry of Defence estimates that it would take him four more years to capture the whole oblast. The latest tactical penetration was a pre-Alaska publicity stunt by the Kremlin to fool Westerners into believing that Russia had unstoppable momentum. It did not move the military needle.

Handing over western Donetsk would open a gaping hole in the Ukrainian defences. It would be akin to the betrayal of democratic Czechoslovakia in 1938 when Britain and France coerced the Beneš government into giving Hitler the Sudetenland and its 300-mile wall of fortified blockhouses. It denuded one of Europe’s best-armed nations at a stroke. “The parallels are acute,” said Prof Riley.

If it is true that Trump blithely agreed to let Putin have the fortress belt, and reports in the Russian press suggest it may well be true, Europe is left with no choice. It cannot allow a strategic disaster of this magnitude to unfold on its doorstep. It must take full charge of the war and the peace – if there is any to be had – and in a sense that is already what is happening.

Huge dangers lurk. Trump’s vague offer of a quasi-Article 5 guarantee for Ukraine sends shivers down my spine. Didn’t the US guarantee the sovereign integrity of Ukraine in the Budapest Memorandum of 1994? Didn’t the last US president commit America’s full power and credibility to defend Ukraine “for as long as it takes”?

What does Trump mean when he says “there’ll be a lot of help when it comes to security”? What are the exact contours of the disgraceful “land swap” that is supposed to underpin Trump’s deal?

Who seriously thinks that a pledge by this president – verbal, legal or of any kind – has bankable value beyond a week? We must assume that Trump will always drift back towards his pro-Putin sympathies.

Europe has the military and economic means to handle this colonial war alone without further contaminating interference from Washington, and can alone raise the cost of continued aggression to such exorbitant levels that Putin sues for peace on tolerable terms.

Contrary to assiduous Kremlin propaganda, Russia’s military-Keynesian economy cannot sustain the war against Ukraine indefinitely. Its banks are being forced to fund much of the military spending, disguising the scale of the budget shortfall and guaranteeing a future banking crisis. The liquid component of the national wealth fund has shrunk to $48bn (£35bn), rendering it almost unusable.

Oil and gas revenues dropped to $9.8bn in July, down 28pc from a year ago. Brent crude has fallen to $66 and is at the bottom of its three-year trading range. It is even more devalued in real terms. Urals Novorossiysk crude is trading at a further discount of $12 a barrel. Hard-nosed Asian buyers know that Russia is a distressed seller.

The International Energy Agency says global oil markets face a record glut next year. Analysts are starting to talk of $40 unless the world economy rebounds soon.



Europe and Britain have unilaterally tightened their squeeze on Russia’s shadow fleet and the financial logistics that make this trade possible. India is no longer able to operate so easily as a giant refining hub for Russian oil, some of it re-exported back to Europe. Data from Kpler showed that Russian shipments to India have collapsed to 400,000 barrels a day so far in August from a monthly pace of 1.8 million before the new curbs.

America is not the critical enforcer any more. Trump’s tough talk on oil sanctions has been empty, without credibility and irrelevant.

It would be a crime against statecraft for Europe to allow itself to be bounced into ratifying Russia’s military conquest at this juncture. American weapons are still needed, and Trump was chortling this over Europe’s offer to buy another $100bn worth, but even that is becoming less clear. 

The Sparta Project by the German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP) spells out how Europe can handle the Russian threat entirely on its own. The immediate task is to stop any of Ukraine’s 100 fighting brigades and its defence nexus from falling into Putin’s hands. The Ukrainian army is now the most valuable asset in free Europe.

The project says Germany and Europe should seek “asymmetric superiority” by building a drone wall and an army of battlefield robots on Nato’s eastern flank, which can be done quickly and at a fraction of the cost of trying to compete on tanks.

The Europeans can break dependency on Elon Musk’s Starlink by expanding the satellite capability of Eutelsat’s London-based OneWeb, if buttressed by the medium-orbit constellation of SES. And so on.

“It is absolutely imperative that we free ourselves of dependence on US systems as far and as quickly as possible,” said Tom Enders, the former Airbus chief and now president of the DGAP.

The Sparta Project is shaping Germany’s €500bn (£430bn) blitz of national rearmament. Chancellor Friedrich Merz is aiming for an annual defence budget of €162bn by the late 2020s. It was just €67bn three years ago.



Putin too can see what is happening and this takes us into perilous waters. The Kremlin has a short window to intimidate the Europeans before they have fully rearmed and while there is still a vain, vacillating and gullible president in the White House.

It is why there is so much urgent talk behind the scenes in Europe for a coordinated Franco-British nuclear deterrent that spans the escalation ladder from tactical nuclear shells to strategic missiles.

For all the well-rehearsed bonhomie and talk of peace in Washington this week, we are nearing the moment of maximum danger.