Re:PPCC: Pisitófilos Creditófagos. Otoño 2025

[Derby]

https://www.ft.com/content/e65579d3-f513-44f4-91e0-246fefe66e4c

Is it really a bubble?

We’ll probably know in five years’ time


The good kind of bubbles © AFP via Getty Images

If you’re a fund manager, a bubble is a) something that has delivered sky-high returns, and; b) a thing you don’t own. Your clients are going to ask why you missed it. One good reason for not owning it is because the thing in question is in a bubble. And, well, bubbles burst.

Unusually, even people at the centre of the AI boom now say it’s a bubble. Jeff Bezos think’s we’re in a “good” type of bubble. Anthropic-backer Hemant Taneja, chief executive of venture capital firm General Catalyst, reckons “of course there’s a bubble”. And Sam Altman, OpenAI’s chief executive, responded recently to the question of an AI bubble with the soothing words: “I do think some investors are likely to lose a lot of money.”

Where does Goldman Sachs sit? Well, the most recent view of the bank’s chief global equity strategist Peter Oppenheimer is: “Not a bubble . . . yet.”

OK, so the report’s a few weeks old. But it’s recently been reissued as a slide deck, discussed in Goldman’s podcast and recycled into a general readership blog, so Alphaville thought we’d revisit it.

One set of numbers jumped out at us so we thought we’d sling them into a chart and share them with you.

Here Oppenheimer compares the potentially bubblicious Mag7 to things that people have, in general, agreed to have definitely been bubbles. On a 24 month forward price/earnings ratio the Mag7 look unbubbly compared to the largest firms from the Tech Bubble of 2000, the Japanese Bubble of 1989 and even the Nifty 50 Bubble of 1973:



So nothing to see here — except for meme-stonk Tesla.

On a price-to-book basis the technology, media and telecoms sector is richer than the 2000 peak, but trailing return on equity has been higher — maybe making the valuation comparison a dud. And market-implied dividend growth (using a three-stage dividend discount model) is still below the tech bubble peaks, though not by much.

Oppenheimer makes the point that high return on equity, net income margins, and huge capex support the case that this time is different. Still, it wouldn’t hurt to diversify away from the US tech giants, GS reckons. You know, just in case.

Because while Wall Street isn’t calling time on this party, things are starting to look maybe a little pricey.

[cujo]

Dinero es un fusil con balas, un pozo , gasolina , placas solares y un huerto.

[Flipback]

Jerome "Too Late" Powell le ha bautizado Trump al presidente de la Fed...

[Saturio]

https://www.ft.com/content/e65579d3-f513-44f4-91e0-246fefe66e4c

Is it really a bubble?

We’ll probably know in five years’ time


The good kind of bubbles © AFP via Getty Images

If you’re a fund manager, a bubble is a) something that has delivered sky-high returns, and; b) a thing you don’t own. Your clients are going to ask why you missed it. One good reason for not owning it is because the thing in question is in a bubble. And, well, bubbles burst.

Unusually, even people at the centre of the AI boom now say it’s a bubble. Jeff Bezos think’s we’re in a “good” type of bubble. Anthropic-backer Hemant Taneja, chief executive of venture capital firm General Catalyst, reckons “of course there’s a bubble”. And Sam Altman, OpenAI’s chief executive, responded recently to the question of an AI bubble with the soothing words: “I do think some investors are likely to lose a lot of money.”

Where does Goldman Sachs sit? Well, the most recent view of the bank’s chief global equity strategist Peter Oppenheimer is: “Not a bubble . . . yet.”

OK, so the report’s a few weeks old. But it’s recently been reissued as a slide deck, discussed in Goldman’s podcast and recycled into a general readership blog, so Alphaville thought we’d revisit it.

One set of numbers jumped out at us so we thought we’d sling them into a chart and share them with you.

Here Oppenheimer compares the potentially bubblicious Mag7 to things that people have, in general, agreed to have definitely been bubbles. On a 24 month forward price/earnings ratio the Mag7 look unbubbly compared to the largest firms from the Tech Bubble of 2000, the Japanese Bubble of 1989 and even the Nifty 50 Bubble of 1973:



So nothing to see here — except for meme-stonk Tesla.

On a price-to-book basis the technology, media and telecoms sector is richer than the 2000 peak, but trailing return on equity has been higher — maybe making the valuation comparison a dud. And market-implied dividend growth (using a three-stage dividend discount model) is still below the tech bubble peaks, though not by much.

Oppenheimer makes the point that high return on equity, net income margins, and huge capex support the case that this time is different. Still, it wouldn’t hurt to diversify away from the US tech giants, GS reckons. You know, just in case.

Because while Wall Street isn’t calling time on this party, things are starting to look maybe a little pricey.

Bueno...eso si nos fijamos en las siete gordas de las cuales una nos sale burbujeada y las otras seis en proceso.
No tengo la media de meses...sólo el dato a día de hoy:

AMD x 148
Palantir x649
Spotify  x148

Por ejemplo.

[Saturio]

Por cierto, Uber también entra en los gráficos de los círculos esos tan majos.

Las acciones de Uber suben tras anunciar una gran red de vehículos autónomos con NVIDIA

https://es.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/las-acciones-de-uber-suben-tras-anunciar-una-gran-red-de-vehiculos-autonomos-con-nvidia-93CH-3363550

[patxarana]

https://www.elconfidencial.com/inmobiliario/residencial/2025-10-29/precio-alquiler-venta-grandes-fondos_4236974/

http://archive.today/ORGLD

ESTRATEGIA DE SALIDA

Los grandes fondos se encomiendan al troceo y la reventa para salir del ladrillo español

Blackstone, Hines, Patrizia, Cerberus, Azora... Los grandes fondos han pulsado el botón de las ventas. Pero, para hacerlo al precio que quieren, necesitan trocear y jugar a la reventa

[...]

Jojojojo, ¡qué podría salir mal!



P.D.: Los argumentos del artículo son impagables. Ya no se esconde el ánimo de estafar:

En cualquier caso, un número muy importante que explica el mantra que se ha instalado entre los grandes fondos de que la solución a sus problemas pasa por regar estos procesos de venta con el caramelo de futuras reventas. La jugada consiste en convencer al comprador de la oportunidad única que tiene de hacerse con un jugoso lote de viviendas, ahora que se habla tanto de la escasez de hogares que padece España.

[Cadavre Exquis]

https://cincodias.elpais.com/opinion/2025-10-29/las-claves-la-politica-energetica-debe-adaptarse-a-las-circunstancias.html

https://elpais.com/economia/2025-10-29/las-electricas-admiten-al-gobierno-las-limitaciones-de-las-nucleares-para-evitar-otro-apagon.html

https://cincodias.elpais.com/companias/2025-10-28/iberdrola-gana-6128-millones-de-euros-un-3-menos.html

https://elpais.com/economia/2025-10-28/estados-unidos-firma-un-acuerdo-de-80000-millones-para-construir-reactores-nucleares-que-alimenten-la-ia.html

Saludos.

[Cadavre Exquis]

https://cincodias.elpais.com/companias/2025-10-29/pere-vinolas-colonial-no-hay-solucion-al-problema-de-la-vivienda-sin-respuesta-conjunta-publica-y-privada.html

Saludos.

[Cadavre Exquis]

https://elpais.com/economia/2025-10-28/openai-da-un-giro-a-su-estructura-para-empezar-a-ganar-dinero.html

https://elpais.com/economia/2025-10-28/apple-se-une-a-la-euforia-alcanza-los-cuatro-billones-de-dolares-de-capitalizacion-por-primera-vez.html

https://elpais.com/economia/2025-10-28/nvidia-extiende-sus-tentaculos-e-invertira-1000-millones-de-dolares-en-nokia.html

Saludos.

[grillo35]

Por cierto, Uber también entra en los gráficos de los círculos esos tan majos.

Las acciones de Uber suben tras anunciar una gran red de vehículos autónomos con NVIDIA

https://es.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/las-acciones-de-uber-suben-tras-anunciar-una-gran-red-de-vehiculos-autonomos-con-nvidia-93CH-3363550

Los taxistas pues, serán los próximos a los que tendremos que rescatar???.. a no ser, claro que se vuelvan a su pais. ¿Mas disturbios en las calles o menos inquilinos a los que exprimir en el futuro?? 

[Cadavre Exquis]

https://cincodias.elpais.com/mercados-financieros/2025-10-29/el-ibex-rompe-todos-los-records-de-dividendos-el-mercado-espera-que-aumenten-un-31-de-2024-a-2026.html

https://cincodias.elpais.com/mercados-financieros/2025-10-28/la-bolsa-y-el-ibex-35.html

Saludos.

[Cadavre Exquis]

https://elpais.com/economia/2025-10-29/la-fed-se-prepara-para-reducir-los-tipos-de-nuevo-ante-las-dudas-por-el-deterioro-del-mercado-laboral.html

https://cincodias.elpais.com/criptoactivos/2025-10-29/el-efecto-trump-cuela-al-token-de-binance-entre-las-mayores-cripto-del-mercado.html

Saludos.

[Cadavre Exquis]

https://cincodias.elpais.com/mercados-financieros/2025-10-28/la-victoria-judicial-de-los-acreedores-de-credit-suisse-abre-paso-a-reclamaciones-milmillonarias.html

Saludos.

[Cadavre Exquis]

https://elpais.com/economia/2025-10-29/espana-aumenta-la-pobreza-cronica-pese-al-crecimiento-del-empleo-y-la-subida-de-los-salarios.html

Saludos.

[Cadavre Exquis]

https://elpais.com/economia/2025-10-28/la-brecha-en-la-pension-de-asalariados-y-autonomos-persiste-1012-euros-por-cuenta-propia-1669-por-cuenta-ajena.html

Saludos.