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Cita de: Vipamo en Ayer a las 08:20:44Es curioso leer ciertos comentarios y comprobar hasta qué punto hemos interiorizado una especie de relato casi mítico. Se da por hecho que detrás de cada movimiento del gobierno de Estados Unidos existe un plan perfectamente diseñado, milimétricamente calculado, ejecutado por mentes superiores que no dejan nada al azar. Como si se tratara de una maquinaria infalible, de superhumanos que lo tienen todo previsto y organizado al detalle.Nos cuesta aceptar la posibilidad de que no sea así. El “imperio” debe ser perfecto, superior, estratégicamente brillante. Y en España, además, se añade un componente de complejo de inferioridad bastante arraigado. Durante años hemos consumido una narrativa en la que el español aparece como el narco oscuro y sospechoso, o la española como la empleada doméstica. Sí, alguien dirá que esos estereotipos suelen asignarse a latinoamericanos en el imaginario hollywoodiense —como si desde allí distinguieran con precisión entre México y España—. El resultado es el mismo: un mensaje repetido desde la infancia en el que el anglosajón, ya sea 007 o Rambo, encarna la eficiencia, la superioridad y el control absoluto. Y muchos lo han asumido sin cuestionarlo.Por eso sorprende lo difícil que resulta plantear una hipótesis mucho más simple: que lo que Estados Unidos está haciendo ahora mismo en Irán no sea fruto de ningún plan maestro, sino de decisiones improvisadas, condicionadas por intereses políticos inmediatos, luchas internas o cálculos personales. Que detrás no haya una mente brillante moviendo fichas con precisión quirúrgica, sino dirigentes falibles, con incentivos propios y temores muy humanos.Surge entonces otra pregunta: ¿cómo funciona realmente el ejército estadounidense? ¿Cómo se llega a general de cuatro estrellas? ¿Quién los designa? ¿Qué trayectorias profesionales les esperan tras la jubilación? En cualquier democracia, el mando militar está subordinado al poder civil; lo contrario tendría otro nombre. Pero esa subordinación implica también una dinámica de incentivos: para prosperar en la jerarquía hay que mantener una buena relación con el poder político. Y cuando el líder político quiere escuchar que todo está listo y bajo control, el coste de contradecir esa narrativa puede ser alto.Los generales no son personajes de ficción. Son personas con carreras que proteger, con hipotecas, familias, expectativas de futuro y, en muchos casos, posibles puertas giratorias hacia la industria de defensa. Como cualquier profesional, pueden temer perder su posición. Un ingeniero despedido puede buscar trabajo en otra empresa; un general no puede simplemente “cambiar de ejército”. Su margen de movimiento es mucho más limitado y su dependencia del sistema, mayor.Tal vez la explicación más realista sea también la más banal: decisiones humanas, incentivos cruzados, ambiciones, miedos y cálculos a corto plazo. No hay un Tom Cruise ejecutando una misión imposible en Persia. La realidad suele ser menos épica y bastante más prosaica.La gente se cree demasiado las mierdas que ve en el cine. Especialmente en el cine usano, que es el que inventó para empezar estas mierdas, que no son otra cosa que propaganda.Que la gente, incluyendo gente supuestamente inteligente, tenga estas falsedades tan interiorizadas, es prueba de que la propaganda funciona: no os metáis con nosotros que lo tenemos todo controlado y somos omniscientes.Estoy totalmente de acuerdo en la ilusión de perfección que mucha gente partece creer a pies juntillas.La estupidez existe desde que existe la inteligencia, y de toda la vida se han cometido errores, cagadas y se han hundido imperios por ello. El principal error quizá creer que uno puede hacer de todo sin que tenga consecuencias ni contrapartidas. Eso colará durante un tiempo hasta que deje de colar.De hecho este cortoplacismo (promovido por ideas económicas imbéciles con sustrato ideológico aún más imbécil, autocomplaciente y psicópata y que a su vez tiene sustrato aún más religioso-cultural) es el que ha llevado a occidente a donde se sitúa ahora.Cipolla lo clavó.
Es curioso leer ciertos comentarios y comprobar hasta qué punto hemos interiorizado una especie de relato casi mítico. Se da por hecho que detrás de cada movimiento del gobierno de Estados Unidos existe un plan perfectamente diseñado, milimétricamente calculado, ejecutado por mentes superiores que no dejan nada al azar. Como si se tratara de una maquinaria infalible, de superhumanos que lo tienen todo previsto y organizado al detalle.Nos cuesta aceptar la posibilidad de que no sea así. El “imperio” debe ser perfecto, superior, estratégicamente brillante. Y en España, además, se añade un componente de complejo de inferioridad bastante arraigado. Durante años hemos consumido una narrativa en la que el español aparece como el narco oscuro y sospechoso, o la española como la empleada doméstica. Sí, alguien dirá que esos estereotipos suelen asignarse a latinoamericanos en el imaginario hollywoodiense —como si desde allí distinguieran con precisión entre México y España—. El resultado es el mismo: un mensaje repetido desde la infancia en el que el anglosajón, ya sea 007 o Rambo, encarna la eficiencia, la superioridad y el control absoluto. Y muchos lo han asumido sin cuestionarlo.Por eso sorprende lo difícil que resulta plantear una hipótesis mucho más simple: que lo que Estados Unidos está haciendo ahora mismo en Irán no sea fruto de ningún plan maestro, sino de decisiones improvisadas, condicionadas por intereses políticos inmediatos, luchas internas o cálculos personales. Que detrás no haya una mente brillante moviendo fichas con precisión quirúrgica, sino dirigentes falibles, con incentivos propios y temores muy humanos.Surge entonces otra pregunta: ¿cómo funciona realmente el ejército estadounidense? ¿Cómo se llega a general de cuatro estrellas? ¿Quién los designa? ¿Qué trayectorias profesionales les esperan tras la jubilación? En cualquier democracia, el mando militar está subordinado al poder civil; lo contrario tendría otro nombre. Pero esa subordinación implica también una dinámica de incentivos: para prosperar en la jerarquía hay que mantener una buena relación con el poder político. Y cuando el líder político quiere escuchar que todo está listo y bajo control, el coste de contradecir esa narrativa puede ser alto.Los generales no son personajes de ficción. Son personas con carreras que proteger, con hipotecas, familias, expectativas de futuro y, en muchos casos, posibles puertas giratorias hacia la industria de defensa. Como cualquier profesional, pueden temer perder su posición. Un ingeniero despedido puede buscar trabajo en otra empresa; un general no puede simplemente “cambiar de ejército”. Su margen de movimiento es mucho más limitado y su dependencia del sistema, mayor.Tal vez la explicación más realista sea también la más banal: decisiones humanas, incentivos cruzados, ambiciones, miedos y cálculos a corto plazo. No hay un Tom Cruise ejecutando una misión imposible en Persia. La realidad suele ser menos épica y bastante más prosaica.
Pues yo le veo al presidente de España, al presidente de todos nosotros, a Sánchez, le veo en presencia, dialéctica e inteligencia muy por encima de los dos líderes de PP y Vox. Hablas de ego, pero, sinceramente, le veo muchísima mayor cintura política para llegar a acuerdos con los diferentes o para ser flexible cuando las circunstancias lo demandan. A los dos líderes de nuestra oposición de derechas los veo más inflexibles, si prefieres, más intolerantes. No deja de ser una apreciación mía, que no vale nada. Pero para que veas que tenemos percepciones diferentes.
US economy sheds 92,000 jobs in February in sharp slideFigure far below expectations comes as doubts persist over labour market strengthThe US economy shed 92,000 jobs in February in a sharp slide that eroded most of the gains of the previous month as doubts persist over the strength of the labour market.Wednesday’s figure from the Bureau of Labor Statistics fell well short of the 55,000 increase expected by economists polled by Bloomberg and was a stark reversal from January’s unexpectedly strong tally of 126,000 new jobs.The fall was led by a drop in healthcare employment as a result of strike activity. Tech employment also slid, while job cuts in the federal government continued.The unemployment rate bounced back to 4.4 per cent following a decline the previous month.Treasury yields dropped immediately following the report but the market moves reversed shortly after. The two-year yield, which is highly sensitive to interest rates, was down just 0.01 percentage points to 3.59 per cent.In the futures market, rate expectations were lower, with traders still betting on one or two cuts this year, but with the first not coming until September. It had been expected in July before data release.The weak February report comes as US President Donald Trump looks to convince sceptical voters that his economic policies are working for them ahead of November’s midterm elections.The report will reinforce concerns over the health of the labour market this year after a sluggish 2025 in which average monthly job gains were just 15,000, the weakest level outside a recession in two decades.It also underscores the difficult balancing act the Federal Reserve faces in supporting the labour market while restraining price pressures. US inflation fell more than expected to 2.4 per cent in January, but the war in the Middle East threatens to stoke price rises again.“This is startlingly weak data, and the job losses happened across sectors,” said Eric Winograd, director of developed market economic research at AllianceBernstein.“I don’t think it is enough to push the Fed into action in March, especially given what is happening with oil prices,” he added. “But you get another one of these and the Fed will move.”Fed chair Jay Powell has indicated that most members of its rate-setting committee are in no rush to lower interest rates further in the near term after cutting three times last year.But the latest data release is likely to further complicate the decision at the central bank’s next meeting later this month.Underlining the extent of the malaise in the labour market, hiring in the previous two months was revised sharply lower by a combined 69,000.Some economists cautioned against reading too much into the report, however, noting that the data was somewhat distorted by the BLS’s modelling and that other economic indicators remained healthy.“The payroll employment data are just lousy,” said Nancy Lazar at Piper Sandler, adding that it was necessary to consider “a package of labour market data, not just the payroll employment report. And unemployment claims below 215 [thousand] are incredibly healthy.”
Asistimos desde hace tiempo al fin del dominio americano-israelí en Oriente Medio y parece que esta guerra va a acelerar el proceso. Cada día que pasa con Irán resistiendo, y respondiendo, a la vil agresión que está recibiendo, acerca un poco más la derrota imperial.Irán no se va a desmoronar. Irán no es Irak, ni Siria, ni Libia. Incluso si su régimen cayera, como consecuencia acumulada del duro castigo sufrido por su sociedad en las últimas cuatro décadas, coronado por los actuales bombardeos, el país, con su civilización milenaria, permanecerá. En esa hipótesis ni siquiera creo que pudieran instalar un régimen títere.Estados Unidos no tiene estrategia en esta guerra. Su gran “éxito” de descabezar la dirección iraní matando a su líder lo demuestra. Matar a Jameneí, junto con parte de su familia, ha sido un desastroso éxito táctico. Si se me permite la burda analogía, cargarse al papa de Roma para resolver un problema italiano, sin tener en cuenta la realidad mundial del catolicismo, demuestra una ceguera estratégica total.El líder era respetado no solo por mucha gente de su país, sino en toda la región, desde Irak a Paquistán, pasando por Bahrein, Arabia Saudí, Líbano, Emiratos y Qatar, donde hay mucha población chiita. Todos esos países están gobernados por endebles regímenes vasallos con poblaciones resentidas por el espectáculo de Gaza. Ahora llueven allí misiles y drones iraníes. ¿Qué señal lanza la facilidad con la que alcanzan esos proyectiles su territorio? Demuestran que la protección imperial no solo es ineficaz, sino también secundaria al lado de la prioridad de proteger a Israel, que concentra el grueso de los recursos antimisiles disponibles. El cierre del estrecho de Ormuz y del tráfico aéreo colapsa la también frágil y vulnerable economía local (extractivista más nudos aéreos y de transporte, servicios y logística), característica de esas monarquías de cabreros.Israel sí tiene una estrategia: dominar la región para su proyecto colonial “bíblico sin fronteras”, pero es una estrategia loca que conduce al suicidio. Un país de ocho o nueve millones de habitantes, sin recursos, que se ha peleado con todo su enorme entorno desde su fundación, en 1948, no puede imponerse a largo plazo. Se sostiene por el apoyo occidental, lo que está lejos de ser una promesa eterna. Su irregular creación como Estado de colonos europeos fue desde el principio injusta para la población autóctona de Palestina. Para ser sólida, su legitimidad debía condicionarse a un consenso de entendimiento y convivencia con la población árabe. Eso no ocurrió y su reciente definición racista y supremacista como “Estado nacional del pueblo judío” (2018), y el genocidio de Gaza, acaban drásticamente con toda pretensión de legitimidad ante la opinión pública mundial.Los árabes de la región siempre han estado sometidos, primero bajo los otomanos, luego por británicos y franceses y ahora por americanos e israelíes. Cuando fracasen con Irán, todo el edificio de ese dominio se caerá y con él se acaba el petrodólar, uno de los pilares del dominio mundial de Estados Unidos.Israel puede usar una bomba nuclear táctica contra Irán para impedirlo. Pero entonces creo que Rusia y China se plantarán definitivamente ante Estados Unidos. Washington deberá abandonar a Israel, con lo cual el Estado colonial sionista está condenado. No digo que vaya a desaparecer, pero desde luego en su aspecto actual es inviable a largo plazo (Ilan Pappé acaba de publicar un libro sobre eso).El hundimiento del dominio occidental en Oriente Medio forma parte del proceso más general del declive de la potencia occidental en el mundo. Y esta derrota –o no victoria– acelerará el proceso. Pero lo que estamos presenciando, con los desastres bélicos de las últimas décadas, y muy particularmente con el genocidio de Gaza y las guerras contra Irán, es que la bestia morirá matando.
Russia is providing intelligence to Iran on the location of U.S. forces, sources sayThe assistance could help Iran locate American warships, radar or other communication systems, but there's no indication Moscow is helping direct Iranian strikes, sources tell NBC News.Russia is providing intelligence to Iran on the location of U.S. forces in the Middle East, a boost for Tehran as it launches missile and drone attacks on American bases and other targets in the region, according to four sources with knowledge of the matter.The intelligence assistance from Russia could help Iran locate American warships, radar or other communication systems, but there is no indication Moscow is helping direct Iranian missile or drone strikes, the sources said.Iran began firing missiles and drones at U.S. bases and other American targets after the United States and Israel launched an air war against the regime last Saturday.Russia’s decision to provide Iran with data from its satellites and other intelligence underscores the widening geopolitical fallout from the war and could carry potential risks for American ships, aircraft and bases in the region.The Washington Post first reported on Russia’s assistance.When asked about Russian intelligence assistance to Iran, White House spokesperson Anna Kelly said the Iranian regime was being crushed.“Their ballistic missile retaliation is decreasing every day, their navy is being wiped out, their production capacity is being demolished, and proxies are hardly putting up a fight,” she said, adding the U.S. operation in the Middle East was meeting or surpassing its goals.Publicly available images of Iranian strikes in recent days have shown U.S. military radar, satellite dishes and communication infrastructure coming under attack at American bases in the Persian Gulf.In an interview with NBC News’ Tom Llamas on Thursday, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said his government was receiving political and other assistance from Russia and China but declined to elaborate.“They are supporting us politically and otherwise,” Araghchi said.Long-standing military cooperation between Iran and Russia “is not a secret,” he said.Asked if Iran was receiving military assistance from Russia or China, he said: “Well, I’m not going to give the details of our cooperation with other countries right in the middle of the war.”President Donald Trump has often said he has an excellent rapport with Russian President Vladimir Putin and has claimed that Moscow would not have launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine if he had been in the White House at the time.At a Pentagon press conference earlier this week, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth was asked about Russia and China’s calls for an immediate ceasefire and whether the U.S. had a message for Moscow or Beijing.“I don’t have a message for them. They’re not really a factor here,” he said.
China may provide financial, missile aid to IranThe US received intelligence indicating that China might be getting ready to provide Iran with financial support, spare parts, and missile components, CNN reported on Friday, citing three people familiar with the matter."China is more cautious in its support. It wants the war to end because it endangers their energy supply," the outlet quoted one of the sources as saying.The Asian giant, which relies heavily on Iranian oil, has allegedly been putting pressure on Tehran to permit ships to travel through the Strait of Hormuz safely. Earlier in the week, US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth told reporters that China and Russia were "not really a factor" in his country's conflict with Iran.
Iranian Kurdish group would join US ground invasionThe Iranian Kurdish group in northern Iraq said on Friday that they are not preparing an attack on Iran but would take part in a United States ground invasion if one were launched.Khalil Nadiri, an official with the Kurdistan Freedom Party (PAK), told the Associated Press that the group would "enter alongside the coalition forces" in the event of a US-led ground operation. However, he stressed that Kurdish fighters should not "place themselves as the spearhead of the attack" and denied that the group is currently preparing a cross-border assault."Ultimate goal is the statehood of the Kurds in all four regions and the reunification of Kurdistan," Rebaz Sharifi, a military commander with the PAK, emphasized, regarding the Kurdish areas divided between Iran, Iraq, Turkey, and Syria. Earlier, US President Donald Trump had offered "extensive US aircover" to Kurdish leaders in Iran and Iraq, following claims that Iraqi Kurds had launched a ground offensive inside Iran's borders.
BlackRock limits redemptions at private credit fund as outflows swellDecision taken after withdrawal requests at flagship HPS Corporate Lending Fund surged to 9.3% of net asset valueBlackRock’s decision to cap withdrawals at 5% will be closely scrutinised by the industry as outflows climb across semi-liquid private credit funds © ReutersBlackRock has limited withdrawals from one of its flagship private credit funds following a surge in redemption requests, as investors retreat from the asset class and questions about credit quality intensify.The asset manager’s $26bn HPS Corporate Lending Fund, which it acquired as part of its $12bn takeover of private credit specialist HPS Investment Partners last year, approved 54 per cent of redemption requests in the first quarter, according to a letter sent to investors in the vehicle.The fund received withdrawal requests worth $1.2bn in the quarter, or roughly 9.3 per cent of its net asset value. HPS told investors it would pay out $620mn as part of the quarterly redemption, hitting a 5 per cent threshold that allows the asset manager to restrict further outflows.The decision to cap withdrawals at 5 per cent will be closely scrutinised by the industry as outflows climb across semi-liquid private credit funds. The vehicles have drawn in hundreds of billions of dollars from retail investors and wealthy individuals who were enticed by the high returns on offer but have started to bolt at the first signs of stress.The exodus was in part sparked by the failures of two auto parts suppliers last year, which raised questions about due diligence in corporate lending markets.It has since been stoked by a smattering of writedowns at funds managed by KKR, Apollo Global Management and Blackstone, as well as a separate BlackRock vehicle. The Federal Reserve’s decision to cut interest rates last year has added to pressure on the space, leading some funds to cut their dividends.Many funds have agreed to honour redemption requests in excess of 5 per cent, with executives hoping their decisions not to gate would quell investor anxieties. Blackstone earlier this week agreed to fulfil all of the redemption requests it received for its $82bn private credit fund, the industry’s largest, as withdrawals jumped to 7.9 per cent of the vehicle’s assets.But analysts have questioned how long the industry could weather elevated withdrawals, given that the semi-liquid funds mostly hold loans that rarely or never change hands. Blue Owl last month permanently halted redemptions at one of its funds, spurring further market turmoil at a time when investors were already souring on the asset class.HPS told investors on Friday that the limit on redemptions was “foundational” to the fund’s past performance, with the vehicle reporting a 9.1 per cent total return after fees last year.“Without it, there would be a structural mismatch between investor capital and the expected duration of the private credit loans in which HLEND invests,” the firm wrote.It added that it had previously limited inflows when it did not foresee attractive investment opportunities “rather than dilute returns to existing shareholders or compromise our underwriting standards”.HPS said the fund drew in $840mn in new commitments from investors in the first quarter and noted that it had $4.4bn of liquidity.
Maersk, a bellwether for global trade, suspends two key shipping services due to Iran war
The Trillions of Dollars of U.S. Investment at Stake in the GulfTurmoil in the region stands to upset an increasingly profound economic relationship with the U.S.Dubai businessman Khalaf Al Habtoor criticized the U.S. attacks on Iran in a rare break of cautious public statements by the Emirati elite. Omar Albam/Associated PressLast year, the richest countries in the Persian Gulf pledged to pump trillions of dollars of investment into the U.S. in a bid to charm President Trump and strengthen ties.Today that warm financial embrace is suddenly under stress.“Who gave you the authority to drag our region into a war?” prominent Dubai businessman Khalaf Al Habtoor asked Trump in a post on X Thursday. The president, he said, placed the Gulf states “at the heart of a danger they did not choose.”As Iran retaliates to U.S. attacks by raining missiles and drones on its Arab Gulf neighbors, the prospect of sustained turmoil in the energy-rich states stands to upset an increasingly profound economic relationship.Before the war broke out, the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia and Qatar had been behind a surge of U.S. investment, publicly embracing Trump closer than any U.S. president in recent history through use of their deep pockets.The three countries’ massive pledges—over $3 trillion between them—were used by Trump to demonstrate a flood of investment coming to the U.S. The countries had become go-to sources of funding for various Trump priorities ranging from AI initiatives to a rebuilding plan for Gaza.The conflict “raises new questions about the Gulf countries’ capability and interest in investing in the U.S.,” said Rachel Ziemba, an adjunct senior fellow at the Center for a New American Security, a Washington-based think tank.If it persists, Ziemba said, the conflict could shake up the countries’ own finances—reducing revenue from oil and gas while prompting them to spend more on defense. The result could mean less cash to splash abroad.The post by Al Habtoor, a Dubai billionaire who runs the Al Habtoor Group, marks a rare break of cautious public statements from the Emirati elite. The entrepreneur founded what was a tiny engineering firm in 1970, building it up to become a large conglomerate that spans from luxury hotels to car dealerships to publishing.A spokesman for Al Habtoor didn’t respond to requests for comment.The governments of the U.A.E., Saudi and Qatar have directed their criticism at Iran, protesting the attacks on their airports and ports as violations of sovereignty that threaten civilian lives. But before the U.S. launched its airstrikes, the Gulf governments had been resisting the prospect of a U.S. attack, fearing that it could provoke a regional conflict that would envelop them.“State-sponsored Iranian terrorism didn’t just harm America and Americans, but our allies—including other Gulf nations,” a White House spokesman said. He added the operation “only safeguards regional stability and commerce in the region.”Soon after arriving back in the White House last year, Trump found willing partners in the Gulf monarchies. His first major foreign trip was in a spring 2025 visit to the three states, where pledges of investment were sandwiched between grandiose welcomes on red and lavender-colored carpets and splashy dinners. Since, financial dealings with the Gulf have only grown, such as a planned Disneyland theme park in Abu Dhabi and the donation of a jumbo jet from Qatar.A slew of deals were discussed at the U.S.-Saudi Investment Forum in Washington, D.C. in November, where Trump touted the strong partnership with Saudi Arabia.President Trump and Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman at the U.S.-Saudi Investment Forum in November. Evan Vucci/Associated PressBusinesses including private-equity firm Blackstone and software maker Cisco Systems pledged investments in data centers around the Gulf.Trump’s family business and close associates have struck a number of deals there, too, raising money for crypto and private-equity ventures. Trump-branded residential towers and luxury golf courses are poised to appear in Qatar, Jeddah, Riyadh and Dubai.The Gulf countries’ sovereign-wealth funds have been behind a series of high-profile acquisitions of giant companies, including the Saudi-backed $55 billion buyout of videogame maker Electronic Arts and an Abu Dhabi fund’s deal to acquire advertising company Clear Channel Outdoor Holdings. Funds from all three countries had backed Paramount Skydance’s effort late last year to acquire Warner Bros. Discovery.Just how the conflict might affect the flow of money depends on how it unspools, but economists have begun to downgrade their forecasts for the region. Capital Economics said in a note to clients on Thursday that it would cut its gross domestic product growth forecasts for the Gulf region by up to 1 percentage point, assuming the conflict lasts only a few weeks. The uncertainty may prompt firms to delay major investment decisions, Capital Economics said.Some investors are betting it will all calm down, soon enough. Blackstone President and Chief Operating Officer Jon Gray said in a CNBC interview earlier this week: “My gut here is this will ultimately get resolved. The U.S. and its allies will emerge victorious.”