PPCC: Pisitófilos Creditófagos. Primavera 2026

[senslev]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O7TlSAncLuk

Informe de Análisis: El Fin del Ciclo Inmobiliario y la Convergencia de la Crisis Global

Resumen Ejecutivo

El presente documento sintetiza las perspectivas de Fred Harrison sobre el estado actual de la economía global, marcando un punto de inflexión crítico que él denomina "la tormenta perfecta". La tesis central sostiene que el mercado inmobiliario mundial ha alcanzado su punto máximo y ha entrado en una fase de declive prolongado del cual no se recuperará como en ciclos anteriores. Esta parálisis no es un evento aislado, sino el resultado de la convergencia de múltiples fuerzas: conflictos bélicos en Oriente Medio y Europa, una crisis inminente de suministros (petróleo y alimentos), una montaña de deuda basada en activos inflados y el impacto del cambio climático. Harrison argumenta que la incapacidad de los gobiernos para abordar las causas fundamentales —enraizadas en un sistema de "engaño" y una falta de responsabilidad social— conducirá a una fragmentación social y económica sin precedentes, superando la severidad de la Gran Depresión de los años 30.


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1. El Mercado Inmobiliario: Un Declive Sin Retorno

Según el análisis, el mercado de la propiedad ha alcanzado su cenit y se encuentra ahora al borde de un precipicio. A diferencia de crisis pasadas, no se vislumbra una recuperación a corto o medio plazo.

* Estancamiento y Parálisis: Aunque persistan fluctuaciones regionales menores, la situación general es de estancamiento en economías clave como el Reino Unido y Europa. La economía global se describe como "paralizada".
* Pérdida de Confianza: El factor determinante en la falta de recuperación es la erosión de la confianza de los ciudadanos en sus perspectivas económicas y en la capacidad de sus gobiernos para resolver problemas estructurales.
* El Fin del Ciclo de 18 Años: Se identifica el fin de un "superciclo" que comenzó tras la Segunda Guerra Mundial. El sistema de "auge y caída" (boom and bust) ha llegado a un punto donde ya no puede sostenerse mediante el crecimiento de los precios de los activos.
* Efecto Cascada: El colapso se observa ya en regiones como Dubái e Israel, donde la especulación inmobiliaria alcanzó picos insostenibles. Se prevé que este fenómeno se propague como un "virus" por el sistema financiero global.

2. La "Tormenta Perfecta": Fuerzas Convergentes

La crisis inmobiliaria está exacerbada por una serie de factores geopolíticos y materiales que interactúan simultáneamente:

* Inestabilidad Geopolítica:
  * Oriente Medio: El conflicto entre Israel, los estados del Golfo e Irán ("Operación Furia Épica") amenaza con interrumpir el suministro de petróleo, lo que podría derivar en racionamientos en cuestión de meses.
  * Eurasia: La persistencia de Putin en Ucrania y las tensiones entre China y Formosa (Taiwán) contribuyen a un entorno de inestabilidad permanente.
* Crisis de Suministros: La falta de petróleo afectará la producción de productos químicos necesarios para fertilizantes, lo que disparará el precio de los alimentos y provocará crisis de hambruna, especialmente en África.
* Presión Migratoria: El hambre y la guerra impulsarán flujos migratorios masivos hacia Europa, incrementando la presión sobre las infraestructuras sociales de los países receptores.
* Costos Ambientales: Los gobiernos enfrentarán gastos inasumibles para reubicar comunidades costeras y ribereñas debido a las inundaciones constantes provocadas por el cambio climático.

3. Desafíos Financieros y Tecnológicos

El sistema financiero se describe como precario y saturado de deuda acumulada sobre valores de activos artificialmente inflados.

* Mercado de Bonos e Inversión: Los inversores están comenzando a retirarse de los préstamos a gobiernos (mercados de bonos) debido a la cautela y la percepción de riesgo sistémico.
* La Paradoja de la Energía y la IA: Mientras la oferta de energía se reduce por los conflictos, la demanda aumenta drásticamente debido al sector digital y la Inteligencia Artificial (centros de datos). Se busca la productividad mediante la IA para evitar el pago de salarios, lo que añade otra capa de tensión social.
* Mecanismo de Renta: En lugares considerados paraísos fiscales, el ahorro que los ciudadanos esperan obtener por bajos impuestos es absorbido automáticamente por el aumento de las rentas y alquileres, un mecanismo fundamental del sistema que suele ignorarse.

4. Raíces Filosóficas y la Crisis de Responsabilidad

El documento destaca que la solución a la crisis no es técnica, sino moral y emocional, y que la sociedad actual se resiste a confrontar la causa raíz.

* Cultura del "Engaño" (Cheating): Existe una tendencia sistémica donde los individuos y las instituciones buscan obtener ganancias no ganadas a través del incremento del valor de los activos (plusvalías), en lugar de participar en actividades productivas.
* Derechos frente a Responsabilidades: Se critica que desde la década de 1950 el enfoque se ha centrado exclusivamente en los derechos humanos sin un contrapeso de responsabilidades personales y sociales.
* Falla del Estado de Bienestar: El modelo de bienestar post-Segunda Guerra Mundial se define como un intento fallido de mitigar problemas sin resolver sus cimientos "podridos". Tanto el socialismo como el modelo de libre mercado actual se consideran estados fallidos ante la crisis actual.

5. Conclusión y Perspectivas de Futuro

La situación actual se describe como más grave que la Gran Depresión, ya que no existe una visión clara de cómo restaurar la normalidad.

* Necesidad de una "Nueva Ilustración": Para evitar la fragmentación social y la violencia, es necesario un cambio colectivo de mentalidad y un compromiso con la auto-iluminación que permita comprender la realidad económica subyacente.
* Propuesta de Solución: Se sugiere la creación de una "Convención Europea de Responsabilidades Humanas" y una "Estatua de la Responsabilidad" que equilibre las libertades individuales con los deberes hacia la comunidad.
* Advertencia Final: Sin un cambio en la actitud del público y una disposición para discutir la causa fundamental del ciclo de auge y caída, la sociedad se enfrenta a un futuro "grotesco" de crisis acumulativas y colapso del tejido social. El sistema económico actual no permite un estado estable; solo admite el crecimiento o la caída, y actualmente se encuentra en caída.

[asustadísimos]

[Buena imagen gráfica, de 'siempretarde', la del comecocos y su comecoquitos en el S&P 500 (todavía habría un supercomecocos):

https://www.instagram.com/reel/DVBfu3ZgEQ5/
(Acudan a la estupa de Bodhnath en la caída del sol. Mientras le dan la vuelta haciendo girar los molinos del mantra del bodhisattva Avalokiteshvara, 'Om Mani Padme Hum', fíjense en las tiendas de objetos religiosos. Están servidas por monjes. Al terminar tres vueltas (una por cada joya: Buda, Dharma —ley o enfoque natural—, Sangha —asamblea, foro—), entren en la tienda que tenga expuestos los mandalas más artísticos. Elijan uno que represente la rueda de la vida o Bhavacakra, que muestra el ciclo estructural de todo ser vivo: alza explosiva, 'turning point', transición y resurrección. Decidan qué telas les gustan como marco. Que sean azules y gualdas, y que no falte el amarillo junto a estas. Encarguen al monje que se lo entregue en el hotel al día siguiente por la mañana temprano. Recen para que los resentidos den el paso atrás cuanto antes. Desayunen y pongan rumbo a la montaña.

La imagen de 'siempretarde' se parece a la portada de 'The Economist', traída por 'sudden and sharp', en la que lo importante es la bajada que dice «How China is chasing fusion power»:

A mí no me cabe duda de que estamos ante la flacidez definitiva de la tr@mpa del serpencamelirafante. El popularcapitalismo está muerto y enterrado, y tocan las exequias.

Esto va a ir rápido.]


[La metáfora de la fuerza, potencia y torque no es fácil de aplicar en las ciencias sociales.

La fuerza podrían ser los factores que impulsan la actividad económica, como la demanda o la productividad, perdón, el fallo del mercado o la estafa de activos ficticios.

La potencia podría ser la capacidad de generar resultados económicos en el tiempo, como la facilidad de cambio de segmento en la K: qué pasa cuando descubres que el dinero sí vale y ves que tú, que creías estar entre los 'haves', en realidad nunca has dejado de ser de los 'haves not' (y que los que tú creías que eran 'have nots', resulta que eran 'haves' sin ínfulas).

Finalmente, el torque podría asociarse a los mecanismos que amplifican efectos, como cuán 'apalancao' estás.

Estas analogías tienen límites porque la economía involucra comportamientos humanos irracionales... y los almacenes de misiles se te vacían aunque mees colonia.]


[Buenísima aportación de 'senslev'...
https://www.transicionestructural.net/index.php?topic=2646.msg257173#msg257173
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O7TlSAncLuk

¡Qué deprisa está yendo todo en este primer año de la Era Cero, 2026!]

[Derby]

https://www.baha.com/Spain-demands-opening-of-Strait-of-Hormuz/news/details/65924075

Spain demands opening of Strait of Hormuz

Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez issued a statement on Sunday calling for the immediate reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and the protection of all energy sites in the Middle East.

"The Government of Spain demands the opening of Hormuz and the preservation of all the energy sites of the Middle East. We stand at a global tipping point. Further escalation could trigger a long-term energy crisis for all humanity. The world should not pay the consequences of this war," he wrote on X.

During the day, Iran insisted the strait is only partially closed, affecting only vessels linked to the US or Israel. While Netanyahu accused Tehran of "blackmailing the world," the IRGC stated that a full closure would only occur if the US attacks Iranian energy facilities

[Cadavre Exquis]

Perdiendo una guerra
https://www.4freedoms.es/p/perdiendo-una-guerra
Trump se topa con su propia incompetencia





.

https://www.economist.com/the-world-this-week/2026/03/20/cover-story-newsletter-operation-blind-fury

Saludos.

[Cadavre Exquis]

https://www.economist.com/briefing/2026/03/19/there-is-plenty-of-scope-for-the-iran-war-to-intensify

https://www.economist.com/briefing/2026/03/18/the-iran-war-could-sap-american-military-power-for-years

[conejo]

Perdiendo una guerra
https://www.4freedoms.es/p/perdiendo-una-guerra
Trump se topa con su propia incompetencia





.

https://youtube.com/shorts/W__KI2FxHFk?si=qcSFbrHVb7qvoLEG



 

[Cadavre Exquis]

https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2026/03/19/america-may-be-a-petrostate-but-the-energy-shock-still-hurts

https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2026/03/18/what-if-donald-trump-decided-to-ban-oil-exports

https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2026/03/17/china-cannot-escape-the-energy-shock

https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2026/03/19/which-country-is-the-biggest-loser-from-the-energy-shock

https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2026/03/16/the-iran-war-is-roiling-commodities-far-beyond-oil

https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2026/03/17/will-south-koreas-epic-bull-market-survive-the-energy-shock

Saludos.

[Cadavre Exquis]

https://www.economist.com/culture/2026/03/19/war-is-only-the-starkest-way-that-politics-is-disrupting-tourism

Saludos.

[muyuu]

https://archive.is/jBq8Y

Financial Times

Spain’s angry young men turn to the radical right

Young women still lean to the left but male youth is more rightwing than it has been for decades


Barney Jopson in Teruel


Bullfighting was once the ultimate culture war issue for Spain’s radical rightwing Vox party and some of its older voters — a chance to defend the sanctity of tradition, spar with “woke” animal rights activists and cheer as the nation’s top matador dedicated his final bull to Vox leader Santiago Abascal.

But now that the populist, anti-immigration party is surging in the polls thanks to the support of young Spanish men, Vox leaders have found that old-school conservative preoccupations such as bullfighting have lost much of their importance.


Instead, Vox has learnt to exploit men’s deep-seated economic and social grievances, which have become the defining feature of a new strain of Spanish populism.

“I never liked politics, but I started to vote when I saw the state of the country,” said Vox supporter Adrián Domingo, 30, a metals salesman drinking beer with friends in Teruel, Aragón, near the town’s landmark bull statuette. “It’s a shambles.”

Young women still lean to the left, but there has been a striking shift among males: they identify as being more rightwing than any other cohort of young men in the past 40 years.

Many see themselves as victims of Socialist Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez and his policies on the economy and immigration.


While Sánchez celebrates Spain growing faster than any other major advanced economy in the past two years, young men complain that their personal hopes have been frustrated. Stoking their discontent are a band of populist rap artists and far-right podcasters and influencers.


Hermann Tertsch, a Vox member of the European parliament, told the FT: “Young people nowadays see the abyss that exists between reality and the official narrative. It’s an absolute insult.”

Domingo and his two drinking buddies have resentments aplenty: the soaring cost of housing; illegal immigration that they blame for rising crime; degraded public services; “feminist” laws that they say put women’s rights above men’s; and corruption, including allegations against Sánchez’s wife and two former right-hand men in his Socialist party PSOE (who all deny wrongdoing).

If a national election were held today, Vox — which voices exactly these concerns — would win more votes than any other party among men aged 18 to 34, according to CIS, Spain’s public pollster.

As for bullfighting, Domingo said he is a fan but cares more about it as a livelihood issue than a matter of culture. “A big part of Spain lives off livestock farming,” he said. “If you cut that off what happens? You make even more people poorer. I can understand that some people don’t like the bull getting killed. But the bull puts food on the table.”


His friend Francisco Royo, 31, who works for a moving company in Teruel, a remote town, said he paid little attention to politics previously. “But they’re just so bad in the Socialist party that, little by little, I’m getting more interested in screwing them over.”


Voting for Vox is the way to do that — and to surf a populist wave that is headed by US President Donald Trump and washing all over Europe. “We are part of a global cultural and political movement,” Tertsch said.
One of the movement’s leitmotifs is a hardline stance on immigration, which chimes with the views of Jorge Montero, 23, a Vox-voting student from an affluent neighbourhood of Barcelona.

He is troubled by a rise in immigrants “who don’t like our culture or are not able to get used to that culture”. He decries criminals in police custody whose “names are not Spanish” and endorses Vox’s call for tougher border controls and deportations. “It’s not a matter of being racist. It’s that you’re not complying with my laws,” Montero said.

Jorge Montero stands on a city sidewalk at night with his hands behind his back, looking at the camera.

Jorge Montero, 23, a Vox-voting student from Barcelona, decries criminals in police custody whose ‘names are not Spanish’ © Barney Jopson/FT


Vox was founded in 2013 by defectors from the People’s party (PP), Spain’s mainstream conservative force, and its original supporters were well-off, Barbour-wearing urbanites and “young guys baling hay in the countryside”, as a party official put it. However, in the past year it has started winning over working-class men who would once have been on the left.

Since last December, Vox has won its largest vote shares on record in three regional elections, capturing 17 per cent across all age groups in Extremadura, 18 per cent in Aragón and, last Sunday, 19 per cent in Castilla y León.


The figures are short of those of its ideological cousins elsewhere: Reform UK is topping the polls on 26 per cent, the Rassemblement National in France is leading on 34 per cent, and Germany’s Alternative for Germany is on 24 per cent, according to Politico’s Poll of Polls. But the discontent of young men is giving Vox momentum.


Rubén Díez, a sociology professor at the Complutense university in Madrid, said: “There is a sense of malaise that is not only economic. It’s also emotional. That pushes people towards more radical views. They think that institutions and democracy are not working for them.”


Vox is in third place in the polls and unlikely to win the next general election due by August 2027. But if Sánchez loses, as today’s polls suggest, Vox will probably be the kingmaker that decides whether to help the PP reach a governing majority by forming a rightwing bloc.


Sánchez portrays Vox as a hateful threat to democratic values. When he led western opposition to the US-Israeli war against Iran last week, Abascal accused him of siding with “tyrannical ayatollahs” and jeopardising economic ties with the US. Sánchez replied that Vox was supporting “those who are setting the world ablaze then complaining about the smoke”.

A decade ago Spain’s politics were the other way around: the PP was running a corruption-riddled centre-right government, unemployment was more than 20 per cent and the political insurgents were radical leftists.

Pablo Iglesias led those leftists as the founder of Podemos, a party that is now on the margins. Vox today, he said, is part of the broader “fascist-isation of the right”.

But the right is winning, he acknowledged, because it has adapted to the new rules of the game.

“In societies as media-saturated as ours, politics is an ideological struggle,” Iglesias said. “It’s to do with what is said and repeated on television and on social media. In this the far right has been absolutely masterful. It understands that what matters is the art of dominating emotions.”

People walk through an open plaza surrounded by historic buildings and outdoor cafes in central Teruel, Spain.


The stars of rightwing populism online include Angie Corine, a rapper whose videos conflate opposition to Sánchez with flag-carrying patriotism, and ‘El Jincho’, a tattooed rap artist whose “Sánchez the dog” tune this month bore the premier’s insulting nickname and pilloried him over corruption.

There are podcasters such as Víctor Domínguez, known as Wall Street Wolverine, whose shows mix dismay over Muslim immigration with investment tips, and Daniel Esteve, a social media personality and entrepreneur who has evicted thousands of squatters and rails against Sánchez for cosseting them. Vito Quiles, a journalist who orchestrates impromptu confrontations with politicians and their supporters, is especially popular with young men.

Social media has also hosted bouts of nostalgia for the dictator Francisco Franco, although the sentiment is purely vicarious for those born long after he died 50 years ago. Memes suggest the economy was stronger and the streets were safer under the autocrat — doubtful assertions that also ignored his trampling of political freedoms and human rights.

Vox politicians bristle at the mention of the dictator. “It’s like saying that Reform voters are fans of Oswald Mosley,” said one, referring to the 1930s leader of Britain’s fascist party.

However, the popularity of Franco memes reflects something deeper, said Paco Camas, head of public opinion in Spain for polling firm Ipsos. “Surveys show a rise in the number of young people who believe that an authoritarian system can sometimes be better than a democratic one.”

Economic grievances remain crucial to Vox’s success. Although Spain’s jobless rate is below 10 per cent for the first time in 18 years, young people are angry that wages are stagnating while housing costs leap.

Adrián García sits at a desk in a classroom with his arms crossed, facing the camera.

Student Adrián García said he supports Vox’s pledges to slash taxes and public sector waste © Barney Jopson/FT

Adrián García, 20, a business student at a university campus in Teruel, said: “I can see that I’ll be working in two years and I still won’t be able to buy a house. I won’t be able to have children because I won’t be able to support them. For me, those things are fundamental.”

He is backing Vox, hoping that its pledges to slash “abusive” taxes and public sector waste will avert that bleak future. Its love of bullfighting, which he considers “unethical”, is incidental.

Last year, when the bullfighter Morante de la Puebla dedicated his last kill to Vox leader Abascal, he told him: “Thank you for everything you do for us.”

Under the gaze of the bull statue in Teruel, Domingo is not grateful just yet. “We’ll have to see how Vox gets on. But we’ve got to give them a chance,” he said. His friend Royo added: “They couldn’t do any worse than what we have now.”

[asustadísimos]

[A 'senslev': En el vídeo de YouTube «El futuro de la generación inquilina: quién define nuestras vidas y por qué»,  de Palomera y Gil (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7bAS2XA7MLk), he colgado el siguiente comentario:

«Gil yerra en creer que lo financiero crea lo real.

Lo real es anterior a lo financiero, aunque ambos se dan contablemente a la vez. Si no concurre lo real, estamos ante algo FICTICIO, algo que no existe o que existe solo en tu cabeza.

Gil se alinea, pues, con la secta subjetivista y su pensamiento mágico ofertademandista; e incurre en bancocentralculpismo.

Todo es más sencillo: FALLO DE MERCADO + ESTAFA. El mal existe (vid. Epstein).

P. S.: Mi pregunta a Gil: ¿qué es la liquidez? Porque siempre hemos entendido por liquidez una cualidad variable de todo activo, ya financiero, ya real, ya universalidad de bienes, derechos, deudas y obligaciones. N. B.: la calificación de activo ficticio es previa a la clasificación real/financiero. 

P. S. 2: Fijaos cómo sois incapaces de definir 'liquidez' sin acudir al laxismo angloléxico ('cuantitative easing'). Es porque usáis liquidez como sinónimo culto para referiros o a la M1 o la M2 o la M3. Pero todo activo financiero usado como medio de pago  (y todo el agregado monetario al que pertenezca) siempre es deuda de alguien».]