PPCC: Pisitófilos Creditófagos. Primavera 2026

[Vipamo]

El WP dice que estas son las condiciones:

1. Iran will control the Strait of Hormuz and will have the right to collect a toll for passage.
2. The US must provide firm guarantees of non-aggression against Iran in the future.
3. Israel must stop its aggression against Lebanon and Hezbollah.
4. The US must completely evacuate its bases in the Persian Gulf.
5. The US must pay financial compensation to Iran for the damage caused.

Son mas bien unas condiciones de rendición. A Trump no le queda otra que enviar tropas y por lo menos intentar ocupar Kargh, aunque sea para hacer un par de fotos allí y aparentar algo. El asalto a la isla no tiene que hacerse necesariamente por mar. Puede ser una operación área desde Kuweit o SA. Supongo que es lo que están negociando estos 5 días. Señor Ayatolá, déjeme hacer unas fotos en la isla y cumplimos con sus demandas de rendición.

[Cadavre Exquis]

https://www.eleconomista.es/mercados-cotizaciones/noticias/13837881/03/26/el-rebote-salva-la-bola-de-partido-de-las-bolsas-el-mercado-se-aleja-por-ahora-del-soporte-que-amenaza-con-hacer-caer-la-bolsa-otro-10.html

https://lectura.kioskoymas.com/el-economista/20260324/textview/page/19

La 'tregua' de EEUU lleva a Europa a subir más de un 5% desde el mínimo diario

https://www.eleconomista.es/mercados-cotizaciones/noticias/13836921/03/26/desplome-historico-del-oro-y-la-plata-que-ya-registran-su-peor-mes-en-mas-de-45-anos-el-mercado-no-esta-simplemente-corrigiendo-excesos.html

https://lectura.kioskoymas.com/el-economista/20260324/textview/page/20

Trump asegura que está dialogando con Teherán y pospone cinco días los ataques

https://www.europapress.es/internacional/noticia-iran-niega-negociaciones-eeuu-atribuye-anuncio-trump-intento-manipular-precio-petroleo-20260323172051.html

https://lectura.kioskoymas.com/el-economista/20260324/textview/page/21

El barril de Brent pierde los 100 dólares tras un giro rápido que arrastra a las petroleras

https://www.eleconomista.es/energia/noticias/13837059/03/26/el-gran-colchon-de-petroleo-flotante-en-el-mar-se-empieza-a-agotar-mientras-la-guerra-de-iran-y-la-crisis-energetica-entran-en-una-nueva-fase.html

https://lectura.kioskoymas.com/el-economista/20260324/textview/page/22

La AIE valora liberar más reservas de crudo y superar los 400 millones de barriles

https://www.eleconomista.es/economia/noticias/13837491/03/26/el-pib-espanol-se-contraera-en-el-segundo-trimestre-y-el-ipc-superara-el-4-si-la-guerra-de-iran-se-alarga.html

https://www.eleconomista.es/mercados-cotizaciones/noticias/13837914/03/26/montana-rusa-en-los-bonos-europeos-la-tregua-de-trump-reduce-a-la-mitad-la-subida-de-tipos-del-bce-que-espera-el-mercado.html

https://lectura.kioskoymas.com/el-economista/20260324/textview/page/23

El euro recupera los 1,16 dólares pese a que los contratos de futuros caen a mínimos de un año

https://www.eleconomista.es/retail-consumo/noticias/13838280/03/26/la-industria-alimentaria-aplaude-las-ayudas-del-gobierno-pero-le-lanza-un-aviso-sobre-eeuu.html

https://www.eleconomista.es/banca-finanzas/noticias/13837488/03/26/la-banca-espanola-tiene-18563-millones-de-exposicion-directa-a-oriente-proximo-la-tercera-mayor-cartera-de-la-ue.html

Saludos.

[Cadavre Exquis]

https://www.europapress.es/economia/finanzas-00340/noticia-escriva-alerta-interferencia-politica-tentacion-bancos-centrales-ir-mas-alla-mandato-20260323101617.html

Saludos.

[Cadavre Exquis]

Dead man walking

Antonio Turiel · 2026.03.23

Queridos lectores:

La guerra de Irán entra en su cuarta semana. Una vez más, para evitar un pánico y hundimiento generalizado de las bolsas al abrir la sesión del lunes, se ha tenido que inventar una noticia para apaciguar al mercado. En este caso, Donald Trump ha decretado una tregua de 5 días (solo de la parte americana, Israel va a la suya), según él, gracias a fructíferas conversaciones con Irán durante este fin de semana (conversaciones ya desmentidas por las autoridades iraníes).

Estamos en tiempo de descuento. En las próximas semanas llegarán los últimos buques que salieron de Ormuz antes del cierre, y cuando esto suceda, la escasez de manifestará con toda su crudeza e intensidad. De hecho, las cosas ya están yendo horriblemente mal. La lista de países que están sufriendo problemas de suministro de combustible o incluso han impuesto medidas de racionamiento (Japón, Australia, Nueva Zelanda, India, Tailandia...) va creciendo a medida que pasan los días. China ha restringido la exportación de fertilizantes, y en los EE.UU. se estima que en esta campaña faltarán entre el 25 y el 35% de los fertilizantes que habitualmente se usan. La escasez de helio va a causar una fuerte caída de la producción de chips en unas semanas, y por no hablar de la desastrosa situación del aluminio o del cobre, por citar un par de materias primas. Pero en realidad todo está afectado. De manera para nada sorprendente para los lectores tradicionales de este blog, en este momento una de las cosas que más escasea es el diésel, y eso afecta a absolutamente todo, a la cadena de suministros de todo tipo de materias primas.

No parece haber una solución sencilla. Irán no va a cejar si no hay un compromiso de no agresión creíble por parte de EE.UU. y de Israel, garantizado por grandes potencias como Rusia y China, y una reparación de guerra a la altura del daño que se ha causado. No puede hacerlo por menos, pues sabe que si cede ahora, dentro de unos meses volverán a atacarle, tras rearmarse. Pero esas condiciones son completamente inaceptables para EE.UU. e Israel. Realmente, no hay ningún tipo de salida sencilla para este atolladero. Todo apunta a que se va causar un daño estructural inmenso en el edificio de la economía mundial.

Poniéndome ahora en el contexto de España y de Europa, siendo honestos, salvo que suceda algo ahora mismo inimaginable (literalmente un milagro) nos vamos a estrellar. No es imaginable ningún otro desenlace. Vamos a sufrir una pérdida muy duradera, quizá incluso permanente, de un 25% o más de nuestro consumo energético, y va a suceder durante los próximos meses. Vamos a ver como una buena parte de nuestras industrias se hunden para nunca jamás recuperarse. Vamos a ver como el paro de dispara. Y en fases avanzadas de esta debacle, vamos a ver escasez de combustibles y hasta de alimentos.

Quizá los amos del mundo tienen resortes que no somos capaces de imaginar, quizá tienen manera de detener en seco en este guerra y con ella este desastre. No lo sé. Yo ni sé ni puedo saber estas cosas. Sí que sé que, sin un cambio radical de rumbo, nos vamos a hundir, y muy hondo. E incluso si se produjera ese milagro, solamente por el destrozo que ya se ha causado, las consecuencias ya serían bastante duras en los próximos años. Aunque, claro, nada por comparación con el hundimiento actual.

Ahora mismo estamos perdiendo alrededor de 20 millones de barriles diarios de petróleo y productos petrolíferos, que es como el 20% del consumo mundial y, lo que más nos importa a nosotros, eso representa un 40% del petróleo disponible para la exportación. Falta también como el 20% del gas natural licuado, el 30% de los fertilizantes nitrogenados, el 30% del helio, el 30% del aluminio, el 30% del azufre (se necesita para hacer ácido sulfúrico para procesos industriales, incluyendo la obtención de cobre)... Hay un atasco de contenedores increíble en la zona. La falta de petróleo crudo medio de la zona del Golfo Pérsico afecta especialmente a la producción de diésel. Y también a la de queroseno. De hecho, algunas compañías aéreas comienzan a cancelar vuelos. Lo que le pase después al turismo, Dios dirá.

Esto no va a ser una crisis más. Esto va a ser una catástrofe económica. Combinada con el estallido de las burbujas financieras desmesuradas que se han inflado durante los últimos años, resulta difícil alcanzar a comprender la magnitud de lo que va a pasar.

Esto es pura aritmética. No hay ninguna buena salida si Ormuz sigue cerrado. Que el mundo no se precipite en un abismo depende solamente de que se reabra esa vía crítica.

Ciertamente, el cierre de Ormuz deletrea todas las letras del fin del capitalismo necroterminal, sistema destructivo y voraz al que no echaremos de menos. El problema no es tanto el fin del capitalismo, sino el cómo se va a producir este fin. Porque en vez de pasar a un sistema de redes de resiliencia preparadas para acoger a la Humanidad, en la mayor parte de este planeta caeremos literalmente sin red.

Probablemente esto es lo mejor que podía pasar. Con un Cambio Climático desbocado y multitud de otros problemas ambientales, no podíamos hacernos ilusiones de que se produjera un descenso ordenado y controlado. Probablemente tenía que pasar algo así, drástico, una detención violenta, si tenía que haber algún margen de poder construir algo en el futuro. Aún así, la mayor preocupación es cómo garantizar que el hundimiento del capitalismo no se convierta en una hecatombe con millones de muertos.

Dadas las circunstancias, las medidas que se tendrían que estar promulgando a diestro y siniestro tendrían que ir de soberanía alimentaria, de garantizar mínimos vitales, de definir sectores estratégicos, de supeditar todos los bienes al objetivo común de garantizar la supervivencia de todo el mundo, de adaptarnos lo más rápido posible a estos tiempos de tribulación y zozobra que se nos van a echar encima.

Pero no. Nada eso está en la hoja de ruta.

Ayer pasé una parte de la tarde revisando las líneas principales del decreto de medidas urgentes que el gobierno de España ha propuesto para hacerle frente a esta nueva crisis trumpiana. Lo cierto es que no me esperaba encontrarme ninguna sorpresa, y así la mayoría de las medidas iban por los derroteros esperables. Por un lado, rebaja a la fiscalidad de la energía, una medida poco útil y de efecto limitado en el tiempo, ya que al bajar el precio aumenta la demanda y el precio vuelve a subir hasta ajustarse a la oferta posible, con lo que se vuelve al mismo precio de partida al cabo de un par de semanas, con la diferencia de que las empresas se quedan con un margen mayor y el Estado con uno menor. Por el otro, medidas para acelerar la transición energética, siempre dentro del modelo de la Renovable Eléctrica Industrial (REI), aunque ya hay alguna mención a los gases renovables - de burbuja en burbuja. Algunas sorpresas agradables es que se recupera la distancia de 5 km para definir las comunidades energéticas, que se había intentando introducir en el decreto antiapagón del año pasado; y otras que no lo son tanto, como es la creación de Zonas de Aceleración Renovable, donde se pretende aplicar el rodillo para que de desplieguen rápidamente las macroplantas eólicas y fotovoltaicas.

Leía las medidas y pensaba: ¿y para qué? ¿y qué más da? Estos días, mientras me entrevistaban para diversos medios, volvía a salir el tema de la transición energética y cómo la mayor penetración renovable de España le ha garantizado de momento menores precios de la electricidad que Europa. Menores precios ahora que aún no ha empezado la escasez: ya veremos qué pasa cuando los socios europeos se empiecen a dar bofetadas por el gas. En la mayoría de las entrevistas, se daba por hecho de que el cierre del Estrecho de Ormuz va a favorecer la transición energética, sin entender que todo el sistema depende de una megamáquina industrial que produce todo lo que se necesita para el REI, desde el cemento hasta el metacrilato, los marcos de aluminio o la fibra de vidrio de las aspas, usando cantidades ingentes de combustibles fósiles. Y es esa misma megamáquina industrial la que se va a detener ahora, y no vamos a tener opción ni de fabricar un tornillo.

En medio de la situación que tenemos, plantearse que la respuesta es la transición renovable es como si se declarase un incendio en casa y piensas que es un buen momento para llamar a un albañil para que te instale puertas cortafuegos. Eso podría haber sido útil en otro momento, pero ahora ya no. Ya no hay tiempo para eso. Ahora tenemos que prepararnos de verdad para el impacto. El sistema aún está en pié y sigue dando pasos, pero está muerto, y en cualquier momento va a desplomarse. Deberíamos estar preparándonos para eso.

Y si Vd., querido lector, está pensando que ojalá se produzca el milagro y se reactive el flujo energético y material a través de Ormuz, piense que eso garantizaría un caída peor más tarde. En realidad, lo que ya no puede esperar es organizar el futuro más allá del capitalismo extractivista.

Salu2:

AMT

Saludos.

[Derby]

El WP dice que estas son las condiciones:

1. Iran will control the Strait of Hormuz and will have the right to collect a toll for passage.
2. The US must provide firm guarantees of non-aggression against Iran in the future.
3. Israel must stop its aggression against Lebanon and Hezbollah.
4. The US must completely evacuate its bases in the Persian Gulf.
5. The US must pay financial compensation to Iran for the damage caused.

Son mas bien unas condiciones de rendición. A Trump no le queda otra que enviar tropas y por lo menos intentar ocupar Kargh, aunque sea para hacer un par de fotos allí y aparentar algo. El asalto a la isla no tiene que hacerse necesariamente por mar. Puede ser una operación área desde Kuweit o SA. Supongo que es lo que están negociando estos 5 días. Señor Ayatolá, déjeme hacer unas fotos en la isla y cumplimos con sus demandas de rendición.

https://www.baha.com/Netanyahu-Iran-deal-will-preserve-our-interests/news/details/65931595

Netanyahu: Iran deal will preserve our interests

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on Monday that he spoke with United States President Donald Trump earlier in the day to discuss the possibilities of a deal with Iran.

In a video message published in Israeli media, Netanyahu claimed that Trump "believes there is a chance to leverage the military achievements of the war to get all the objectives of the war through an agreement," adding that "such an agreement will safeguard our interests."

In addition, the prime minister pointed out that Israel will continue to strike Iran until a deal is officially reached. He also revealed that the Israeli military had eliminated two more Iranian nuclear scientists in recent days.

https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/iran-sends-waves-missiles-into-israel-dismisses-trumps-talk-negotiations-fake-2026-03-24/

Iran sends waves of missiles into Israel, dismisses Trump's talk of negotiations as 'fake news'

(...)As a result, he said, he was postponing for five days a plan to hit Iran's energy grid. His announcement sent share prices higher and oil prices sharply lower to below $100 a barrel, a sudden reversal to a market swoon caused by his weekend ​threats and Iran's vows to respond.

Those gains were in jeopardy on Tuesday however, after Iran's powerful parliament speaker Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf - who an Israeli official and two other sources familiar with the matter ​said was the interlocutor in the talks on the Iranian side - said no negotiations had taken place.

"No negotiations have been held with the U.S., and fakenews ⁠is used to manipulate the financial and oil markets and escape the quagmire in which the US and Israel are trapped," he wrote on X

[Derby]

https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/trump-approved-iran-operation-after-netanyahu-argued-joint-killing-khamenei-2026-03-23/

Exclusive: Trump approved Iran operation after Netanyahu argued for joint killing of Khamenei, sources say

Summary
*Trump gave final order on Iran operation after conversation with Israel's Netanyahu
*Throughout war planning, Netanyahu waged lobbying campaign in favor of Iran attack - though no proof it was decisive factor for US president
*Secretary of State Rubio told lawmakers in days before strikes that US would likely get dragged in
War planning picked up after January massacres

WASHINGTON/JERUSALEM, March 23 (Reuters) - Less than 48 hours before the U.S.-Israeli strike on Iran began, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu spoke by phone to President Donald Trump about the reasons for launching the kind of complex, far-off war the American leader once had campaigned against.

Both Trump and Netanyahu knew from intelligence briefings earlier in the week that Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and his key lieutenants would soon meet at his compound in Tehran, ​making them vulnerable to a “decapitation strike” – an attack against a country's top leaders often used by Israelis but traditionally less so by the United States.

But new intelligence suggested that the meeting had been moved forward to Saturday morning from Saturday night, according to three people briefed on the call.

The call has not been previously reported.

Netanyahu, ‌determined to move forward with an operation he had urged for decades, argued that there might never be a better chance to kill Khamenei and to avenge previous Iranian efforts to assassinate Trump, these people said. Those included a murder-for-hire plot allegedly orchestrated by Iran in 2024, when Trump was a candidate.

The Justice Department has accused a Pakistani man of trying to recruit people in the United States in the plan, meant as retaliation for Washington's killing of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps' top commander, Qassem Soleimani.

By the time the call took place, Trump already had approved the idea of the United States carrying out a military operation against Iran but had not yet decided when or under what circumstances the United States would get involved, said the sources, who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive internal deliberations.

The U.S. military had for weeks built up a presence in the region, prompting many within the administration to conclude it was just ​a matter of when the president would decide to move forward. One possible date, just a few days earlier, had been scuttled because of bad weather.

Reuters was unable to determine how Netanyahu’s argument affected Trump as he contemplated issuing orders to strike, but the call amounted to the Israeli leader’s closing argument to his U.S. counterpart. The three sources briefed on ​the call said they believed it - along with the intelligence showing a closing window to kill Iran's leader - was a catalyst for Trump’s final decision to order the military on February 27 to move ahead with Operation Epic Fury.

Trump could make history by helping eliminate an Iranian leadership long ⁠reviled by the West and by many Iranians, Netanyahu argued. Iranians might even take to the streets, he said, overthrowing a theocratic system that had governed the country since 1979 and been a leading source of global terrorism and instability ever since.

The first bombs struck on Saturday morning, February 28. Trump announced that evening that Khamenei was dead.

In response to a request for comment, White House spokeswoman Anna ​Kelly did not directly address the call between Trump and Netanyahu but told Reuters the military operation was designed to "destroy the Iranian regime's ballistic missile and production capacity, annihilate the Iranian regime's Navy, end their ability to arm proxies, and guarantee that Iran can never obtain a nuclear weapon."

Neither Netanyahu's office nor Iran's U.N. representative responded to comment requests.
Netanyahu in a news conference on Thursday dismissed as “fake news” claims ​that “Israel somehow dragged the U.S. into a conflict with Iran. Does anyone really think that someone can tell President Trump what to do? Come on.”

Trump has said publicly that the decision to strike was his alone.

Reuters reporting, with officials and others close to both leaders speaking mostly on condition of anonymity given the sensitivity of internal deliberations, does not suggest that Netanyahu forced Trump to go to war. But the reporting shows that the Israeli leader was an effective advocate and that his framing of the decision – including the opportunity to kill an Iranian leader who allegedly had overseen efforts to kill Trump – was persuasive to the president.

Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth in early March suggested that revenge was at least one motive for the operation, telling reporters, "Iran tried to kill President Trump, and President Trump got the last laugh."

JUNE ATTACK TARGETED NUCLEAR, MISSILE SITES

Trump ran his campaign in 2024 based on his first administration’s foreign policy ​of "America First" and said publicly that he wanted to avoid war with Iran, preferring to deal with Tehran diplomatically.

But as discussions over Iran's nuclear program failed to produce a deal last spring, Trump began contemplating a strike, according to the three people familiar with White House deliberations.

A first attack came in June, when Israel bombed Iran’s nuclear facilities and missile sites, and killed several Iranian leaders. U.S. forces ​later joined the attack, and when that joint operation ended after 12 days, Trump publicly reveled in the success, saying the U.S. had "obliterated" Iran’s nuclear facilities.

Yet months later, talks began again between the U.S. and Israel about a second aerial attack aimed at hitting additional missile facilities and preventing Iran from gaining the ability to build a nuclear weapon.

The Israelis also wanted to kill Khamenei, a longtime, bitter geopolitical foe who had repeatedly ‌fired missiles into Israel and ⁠supported heavily armed proxy forces encircling the nation. That included the Hamas militant group that launched the surprise attack on October 7, 2023, from Gaza, and Hezbollah, based in Lebanon.

The Israelis began to plan their attack on Iran under the assumption they would be acting alone, Defense Minister Israel Katz told Israel's N12 News on March 5.

But during a December visit to Trump's Mar-a-Lago estate in Florida, Netanyahu told Trump that he was not fully satisfied with the outcome of the joint operation in June, said two people familiar with the relationship between the two leaders, speaking on condition of anonymity.

Trump indicated he was open to another bombing campaign, the people added, but he also wanted to try another round of diplomatic talks.

Two events pushed Trump toward attacking Iran again, according to several U.S. and Israeli officials and diplomats.

The U.S. operation on January 3 to capture Venezuela's President Nicolas Maduro in Caracas - which resulted in no American deaths while removing from power a longstanding U.S. foe - demonstrated the possibility that ambitious military operations could have few collateral consequences for U.S. forces.

Later that same month, massive anti-government protests erupted in Iran, prompting a vicious response by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, killing thousands. Trump vowed to help the protesters but did little immediately that was ​public.

Privately, however, cooperation intensified between the Israel Defense Forces and the U.S. military's Middle East command, ​known as CENTCOM, with joint military planning conducted during secret meetings, according to two Israeli ⁠officials, speaking on condition of anonymity.

Not long after, during a February visit by Netanyahu to Washington, the Israeli leader briefed Trump on Iran's growing ballistic missile program, pointing out specific sites of concern. He also laid out the dangers of the ballistic missile program, including the risk that Iran might eventually gain the ability to strike the American homeland, said three people familiar with the private conversations.

The White House did not respond to questions about Trump's December and February meetings with Netanyahu.

TRUMP'S CHANCE AT HISTORY

By late February, many U.S. officials and regional diplomats considered a U.S. attack on Iran very likely to ​proceed, though the details remained uncertain, according to two other U.S. officials, one Israeli official and two additional officials familiar with the matter.

Trump was briefed by Pentagon and intelligence officials on the potential advantages to be gained from a successful attack, including the decimation of Iran’s missile program, ​according to two people familiar with those briefings.

Before the phone ⁠call between Netanyahu and Trump, Secretary of State Marco Rubio told a small group of top Congressional leaders on February 24 that Israel was likely to attack Iran, whether or not the U.S. participated, and Iran would then likely retaliate against U.S. targets, according to three people briefed on the meeting.

Behind Rubio's warning was an assessment by American intelligence officials that such an attack would indeed provoke counterstrikes from Iran against U.S. diplomatic and military outposts and U.S. Gulf allies, said three sources familiar with U.S. intelligence reports.

This prediction proved accurate. The strikes have led to Iranian counterattacks on U.S. military assets, the deaths of more than 2,300 Iranian civilians and at least 13 U.S. service members, attacks on U.S. Gulf allies, the closure of one of the world’s most vital shipping routes and a historic spike in oil prices that is already being felt by ⁠consumers in the United States ​and beyond.

Trump had also been briefed that there was a chance, even if small, that the killing of Iran's top leaders could usher in a government in Tehran that was more willing to negotiate with Washington, said two other people ​familiar with Rubio's briefing.

The possibility of regime change was one of Netanyahu's arguments in the call shortly before Trump gave final orders to attack Iran, said the people briefed on it.

That view was not held by the Central Intelligence Agency, which had assessed in the weeks prior that Khamenei would likely be replaced by an internal hardliner if he was killed, as Reuters previously reported.

The CIA did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

Trump repeatedly called for an uprising after Khamenei was killed. With ​the war in its fourth week and the region engulfed in conflict, Iran’s Revolutionary Guards still patrol the nation’s streets. Millions of Iranians remain sheltered in their homes.

Khamenei’s son Mojtaba, considered even more harshly anti-American than his father, has been named the new supreme leader of Iran.