PPCC. PIsitófilos Creditófagos. Verano 2020

[Bayne]

https://twitter.com/DesdelAtlantico/status/1285886850046005249

Este también me gusta

[Maloserá]

no hay color, mucho mas divertido en burbuja
https://www.burbuja.info/inmobiliaria/threads/los-cayetanos-se-han-chinao-con-el-acuerdo-de-hoy-descubre-el-por-que-en-este-hilo.1391702/

Hay un comentario muy cachondo en ese hilo, de Progretón

'...A suecos, irlandeses y franceses les va esa droga también; y en Alemania parece que empieza a haber kayetanen...
..
El público del cuento orteguiano "España el problema, Uropa la solución" lo tiene en TE.net, por donde usted pulula.'

[tomasjos]

Yo me estoy pensando ir a echar una mano a Arquitecto, y de paso trolear a Gerión

[Derby]

https://cincodias.elpais.com/cincodias/2020/07/22/economia/1595407498_989458.html

La Airef insta a revisar los beneficios fiscales de Socimis, Sicav y alquileres, el IVA reducido o la renta conjunta

La Autoridad fiscal recomienda además modificar las ventajas tributarias de los planes de pensiones privados en el marco del Pacto de Toledo

La Autoridad Independiente de Responsabilidad Fiscal (Airef) ha detectado que los beneficios fiscales, en forma de reducciones, desgravaciones y otras facilidades que permiten la reducción en el pago de impuestos, esconden ineficiencias que podrían permitir al Estado elevar la recaudación tributaria eliminando o modulando algunas.

Como resultado, el organismo fiscalizador insta a revisar los beneficios fiscales de Socimis y Sicav; alquileres, IVA reducido y tributación conjunta; así como a modificar las ventajas asociadas a los planes privados de pensiones en el marco del Pacto de Toledo.

Esta es la principal conclusión que el organismo presidido por Cristina Herrero ha incluido en el primero de los informes de su segunda tanda de revisión de los recursos públicos, los spending reviews, acordados con la Unión Europea y que el Ministerio de Hacienda prevé ir incorporando en el diseño de las cuentas públicas.

Este segundo paquete de informes analiza cuatro capítulos por valor de 51.000 millones de euros, equivalentes al 4% del PIB español, centrándose el primero de los análisis en 13 beneficios fiscales que rebajan la recaudación de IRPF, IVA, Sociedades o Impuestos Especiales en 35.000 millones de euros anuales. Este montante equivale al 60% del total d beneficios fiscales existentes en España actualmente.

[Derby]

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-britain-eu-usa/uk-abandons-hope-of-u-s-trade-deal-by-end-of-year-ft-idUSKCN24N0P7

UK abandons hope of U.S. trade deal by end of year: FT

The British government has abandoned hopes of clinching a U.S. free trade deal ahead of the presidential election, with officials blaming the novel coronavirus outbreak for slow progress, the Financial Times reported.

“Is it going to happen this year? Basically, no,” said one official quoted by the FT. Another was quoted as saying: “We don’t want to be bounced into a deal.”

Trade minister Liz Truss said last month that Britain had no deadline to strike a trade deal with the United States and she criticised the U.S. administration for talking “a good game” on free trade while restricting import access.

[elarquitecto]

Yo me estoy pensando ir a echar una mano a Arquitecto, y de paso trolear a Gerión

yo paso ya de contestarle desde que dijo que el cenit de europa fue en los "gloriosos treinta" (supongo que por las leyes de nuremberg y el alzamiento militar aquí en españa... en fin)

en realidad venía a comentar que no, no ha sido cosa de los "frugales" (yo los llamaría tacaños, se parecen a los lazis, por cierto)

la "condicionalidad" ha sido porque llevamos ya un par de lustros con la agenda 2020 (ahora agenda 2030) y el año pasado empezaron con lo del green deal:
https://ec.europa.eu/info/sites/info/files/european-green-deal-communication_en.pdf

lo de la transición digital ni idea
yo sé que en norteuropa andan muy puestos con videojuegos, aplicaciones y e-sports (esto es un pelotazo, va a comerse al fútbol a este paso en unos pocos años), pero ya no sé si es eso o montar el e-commerce (que lleva ya "inventado" desde el 2000 y antes, 20 años) en el bar o la charcutería

en todo caso, @sirou, la pasta va a ir encauzada a eso

bonus track: https://boe.es/boe/dias/2020/06/24/pdfs/BOE-A-2020-6621.pdf
"Real Decreto-ley 23/2020, de 23 de junio, por el que se aprueban medidas en materia de energía y en otros ámbitos para la reactivación económica"

igual lo habéis comentado aquí (yo es que me paso de pascuas a ramos o cuando hay evento gordote), pero ya en junio teníamos encauzada la transición "verde"
podéis contar las veces que dice "estaciones de recarga", pero mi parte favorita es la de declara de utilidad pública los proyectos esos y así agilizar las expropiaciones forzosas

a ver, que igual es todo casual, pero huele a orquestado y no de ahora, yo diría que de antes de la pandemia incluso (y puede que lo de calviño haya sido un canje de cromos, cedemos a calviño y nos dan pasta a fondo perdido)

[R.G.C.I.M.]

@ arquitecto

"Los gloriosos 30" se llaman, no a la 4 década del pasado siglo XX; sino a las tres décadas desde la recuperación post IIGM ( plan Marshall) hasta el inicio de la crisis de petróleo y cese patrón oro.


Sds.

[Derby]

https://www.fxempire.com/news/article/eu-budget-and-recovery-fund-deal-a-significant-step-to-boost-europes-integration-and-recovery-662541

EU Budget and Recovery Fund Deal: a Significant Step to Boost Europe’s Integration and Recovery

The agreement on the EU budget, including the recovery fund of EUR 750bn, is an important political milestone with a potentially macro-economically relevant impact to facilitate Europe’s recovery from the crisis from 2021 on, says Scope Ratings.

1. What does the outcome of the EU budget deal mean for Europe?

First, politically, it is a very important signal that leaders agreed – already in the first month of the German EU Presidency – on the budgetary resources and objectives to facilitate Europe’s recovery from 2021 on. Once again, European leaders have demonstrated that in times of distress, compromise and action are possible, not only to tackle an emergency, but also to support a more robust recovery. This decision sets a confidence-building precedent that extraordinary financial measures are available from the EU to cushion against future economic and social shocks.

Secondly, economically, the potential for a more durable recovery has been strengthened. The EU’s recovery fund is the first significant common European counter-cyclical fiscal response to an economic crisis, to be comprised of EUR 390bn in grants and EUR 360bn in loans, financed by bond issuance backed by the EU budget, which comes on top of EUR 1.1trn via the next seven-year budget, bringing a total budget size of EUR 1.8trn. However, the macro-economically relevant element for Europe’s recovery in terms of additional fiscal stimulus relates predominantly to the recovery fund. At EUR 750bn, the fund is slightly above 5% of EU-27 GDP, assuming that all grants and loans are disbursed.

The direct fiscal stimulus will mostly derive from the grants, which will be committed, on average, at around EUR 130bn a year between 2021-2023. The resulting additional stimulus amounts to near 1% of EU GDP per year – although the actual impact is likely to be somewhat lower as some commitments may only be disbursed after 2023. Still, a productive use of such grants, supported by careful project and investment selection as well as appropriate reforms in the context of the European Commission (EC)’s Country Specific Recommendations, could facilitate a faster and more even economic recovery.

Third, geopolitically, and longer term, the European Commission’s significant increase in capital market borrowing of up to EUR 750bn will increase the availability of safe assets denominated in euros, which could further support the safe-haven role of the euro in the global financial system.

2. How significant is the agreement on the EU budget in the context of Europe’s forceful and evolving policy response to the impact of Covid-19 on EU economies?

The decision critically shifts the focus from emergency measures adopted over recent months to Europe’s recovery over coming years. While the first measures provided a safety net for sovereigns and corporates, which avoided the near-term risk of any immediate liquidity crisis, the deal on the recovery fund and the EU budget provides important longer-term growth incentives.

In addition, the agreement underlines the important coordination of fiscal and monetary policies in Europe, setting a precedent for future crisis response at the EU level. Additional steps toward the completion of the banking and capital markets unions will also be key to facilitating an even and sustainable economic recovery in the EU, which will enhance the EU’s global economic and political objectives as well as the attractiveness of euro-denominated assets.

3. The deal for the Recovery Fund is the result of tough negotiations and includes a number of compromises. What are the key political implications?

The hard-fought negotiations highlighted significant divisions within the EU between more “frugal” northern countries and the southern countries. As a result, the deal includes a number of important compromises such as an increase in budget rebates for some northern countries and the adoption of an ‘emergency brake’ mechanism, which allows any individual member state to oppose disbursement of recovery monies, requiring then a decision by EU finance ministers and, in case of disagreement, by the EU Council.

Such a governance structure may postpone payments in the case of non-productive usage of recovery fund resources, reinforcing the incentives to allocate the Recovery Fund’s resources for projects related, for example, to addressing climate change and the digital economy.

In addition, leaders have also agreed on the implementation of additional European-wide taxes, including on non-recycled plastic waste (effective January 2021), a carbon border adjustment mechanism and on a digital levy (both to be effective January 2023). As the proceeds will be used for early repayments of the forthcoming EUR 750bn in borrowings, these new instruments could, depending on final design and implementation, gain in importance over time, underpinning the joint nature of this fiscal effort.

Overall, we believe that the negotiations highlighted the willingness and ability among EU leaders to reach an agreement. We expect the parliamentary ratification process, including that by the European Parliament, to be completed by end-year with the Recovery Fund becoming operational in 2021.

4. What is the impact of the deal for Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) and Southern Europe?
CEE economies, alongside economies in southern Europe, are key beneficiaries – economically and from the perspective of debt sustainability.

First, both regions have been the largest beneficiaries of EU funds relative to their economic size in the EU budget of 2014-20, with EU funds accounting for more than half of all public investment in many economies. The Next Generation EU fund and EU Budget for 2021-27 present an opportunity for such countries as budget allocations remain large – and in some cases have even increased – which can facilitate a recovery in the coming years. While the ‘regime of conditionality’ still needs to be introduced, going forward, in case of breaches of the rule of law, measures can be taken by the Council on the basis of a qualified majority as opposed to unanimity. This change in governance alone may incentivise all member states to avoid any such procedure related to the adherence to the rule of law.

However, the ability for such economies to deploy additional EU funding will be crucial. EU fund absorption rates vary markedly among CEE and southern European countries, reflecting variation in the co-financing capacity of governments as well as institutional factors such as governance quality and  long-term planning capacity, the control of corruption and the extent of decentralisation. For example, the cumulative absorption rate of 2014-20 EU funds is currently well above 50% in the Baltic countries and Poland, but only around 40% on average in Italy, Spain, Romania, Croatia and Bulgaria.

Secondly, the EC loans are highly concessional with lower interest rates and longer maturities compared to what governments could in many cases issue on their own. This will positively impact government debt sustainability over the medium term. Under the Recovery Fund, EU members can borrow up to 6.8% of gross national income, or about EUR 120bn in the case of Italy and EUR 85bn for Spain.

5. What impact will this agreement have on European sovereign ratings?

Sovereign credit rating outlooks from Scope depend on a complex interplay of monetary, fiscal and economic factors, including the social and political repercussions of this pandemic. We acknowledge that decisions on the EU budget and recovery fund are supportive regarding EU sovereign ratings and form a good opportunity to facilitate and support Europe’s economic recovery and transformation in 2021 and beyond alongside continuing the enhancement of the overall EU economic architecture.

Still, we will assess individual sovereign government credit profiles selectively to account for varying fiscal adjustment capacities and underlying degrees of economic resilience and abilities to absorb and reverse the significant economic and fiscal impact from this shock over the medium term.

[Derby]

https://worldcrunch.com/world-affairs/why-the-european-union-has-changed-forever

Why The European Union Has Changed Forever, Sylvain Kahn*

The European Union has reached a historic accord, de facto unifying as one state by agreeing on a common debt. The EU now is a new form of society, in which sovereignty is shared reciprocally.

From now on, Europeans can shelve the ideological debate on whether the existence of the EU is relevant, and focus on the citizen's debate that confronts the real issue: Are we satisfied with the political choices and public policies made by the European "government?"

*LE MONDE 2020-07-22

[Derby]

https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/brexit-uk-close-abandoning-hope-22398570

Brexit: UK 'close to abandoning hope' of EU trade deal amid major splits with Brussels

A fifth round of talks will close tomorrow and there is still no breakthrough on key issues, including fishing rights and how closely we follow EU rules

https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-sterling/sterling-edges-lower-on-no-deal-brexit-reports-gloomy-economic-prospects-idUSKCN24M0ZB

Sterling edges lower on no-deal Brexit reports, gloomy economic prospects

The British pound fell on Wednesday on growing concern that the Brexit transition period will end without a deal between Britain and the EU, and on the foggy economic prospects for the country as it looks to emerge from its coronavirus lockdown.

The fact that the United Kingdom, now out of the European Union, will not be part of the bloc’s 750 billion euro recovery package “is not helping the pound,” said Kenneth Broux, head of corporate research at Societe Generale.

(...) Brexit has taken a back-seat during the pandemic, but with a transition period set to expire at year-end, the clock is ticking for Britain to reach a trade deal with the bloc.

London wants free trade but is prepared for no deal, Transport Secretary Grant Shapps said on Wednesday.

That followed a report in the Daily Telegraph that suggested the two sides may fail to agree, with only a few days left before Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s July deadline.

The Financial Times reported that the British government has also abandoned hopes of clinching a U.S. free trade deal ahead of November’s presidential election there, with officials blaming the novel coronavirus outbreak for slow progress.

[Derby]

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-feared-jumbo-mortgage-debacle-is-here-thanks-to-the-coronavirus-and-ready-to-pound-the-housing-market-2020-07-22

The feared jumbo mortgage debacle is here — thanks to the coronavirus — and ready to pound the housing market

COVID-19 pandemic is squeezing borrowers’ ability to stay in their homes

Jumbo mortgages are loans that are larger than the limits set for Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac or the FHA to guarantee or insure. During the craziest years of the housing bubble, 2004 through 2007, close to $3.1 trillion in jumbos was originated.  Most were offered with insanely easy terms, which helped precipitate the collapse that followed.

As housing markets plunged over the next five years, jumbo loans for home purchases all but dried up. Jumbo mortgage lending returned only gradually during the early years of the so-called housing recovery.  

All that changed starting in 2016.  Since then, jumbo mortgage lenders have tripped over each other to hand out huge loans to applicants.  Between 2016 and 2019, roughly $1.5 trillion of these jumbos were originated.  Cash-out refinancing also returned with a vengeance. Reversing the traditional approach, interest rates and underwriting standards for jumbos were actually lower than for conventional loans. For these lenders, mortgages offered to high-income borrowers who could afford the monthly payments seemed the least risky of all.

Look at the table below showing jumbo originations in the 25 largest U.S. metros since the peak of the housing bubble.  Roughly two-thirds of all jumbo loans have been originated in these 25 major housing markets.



(...) What has been largely overlooked are the mounting problems of wealthier homeowners with jumbo mortgages. They have also been slammed by the lockdowns.  According to Black Knight, 11.8% of all jumbo loans were in forbearance as of June 16. That is more than double the rate as recently as April.  In a mid-June MarketWatch article, the CEO of Caliber Home Loans stated that 42% of their customers who requested a forbearance were self-employed.  Keep in mind that the CARES legislation did not say anything about jumbo mortgages.  Lenders were under no obligation to offer forbearances to any jumbo mortgage borrower.

(...) Making matters worse for jumbo lenders is the unfolding disaster of the COVID-19 lockdowns. No one knows how many millions of jumbo borrowers are finding it increasingly difficult to make their monthly mortgage payment. As borrowers continue to skip paying their mortgage, the patience of lenders with forbearances will start to run out.

[Derby]

https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/existing-home-sales-rebound-most-ever-june-miss-expectations-despite-record-low

Existing Home Sales Rebound By Most Ever In June (But Miss Expectations Despite Record Low Rates)

Existing home sales were expected to play a big catch up in June after significantly disappointing in May as pending- and new-home-sales rebounded strongly from the March/April plunge during lockdowns. Existing Sales did rebound strongly - up 20.7% MoM - a record MoM rise but that was less than expectactions of a 21.4% rise and left sales down 11.3% YoY...

[el malo]

https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/brexit-uk-close-abandoning-hope-22398570

Brexit: UK 'close to abandoning hope' of EU trade deal amid major splits with Brussels

https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-sterling/sterling-edges-lower-on-no-deal-brexit-reports-gloomy-economic-prospects-idUSKCN24M0ZB

Sterling edges lower on no-deal Brexit reports, gloomy economic prospects

London wants free trade but is prepared for no deal

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-britain-eu-usa/uk-abandons-hope-of-u-s-trade-deal-by-end-of-year-ft-idUSKCN24N0P7

UK abandons hope of U.S. trade deal by end of year: FT

The British government has abandoned hopes of clinching a U.S. free trade deal ahead of the presidential election, with officials blaming the novel coronavirus outbreak for slow progress, the Financial Times reported.

Mucho confían los británicos en la Commonwealth. Quedarse fuera de dos acuerdos comerciales con sus dos principales bloques comerciales de un plumazo da miedo.

Claro que si en algo son expertos los ingleses es en darle la vuelta a la tortilla "diplomáticamente" a cualquier situación según sus intereses.

Espero que la UE se ponga firme y obligue a sus miembros a no firmar acuerdos bilaterales sin el consentimiento de Bruselas. Ahora tiene 750.000 millones de buenos argumentos para convencer a los países 

[Derby]

https://www.lavanguardia.com/economia/20200722/482464296063/media-docena-de-empresas-sopesan-pedir-el-rescate.html

Media docena de empresas sopesan pedir el rescate

El Gobierno aprueba los detalles del fondo de 10.000 millones

Empresas como Iberia, Globalia, Celsa, Duro Felguera o Abengoa, entre otras que prefieren mantenerse en el anonimato, mantienen negociaciones avanzadas con el Gobierno para ser rescatadas con el fondo de la SEPI, que está dotado con 10.000 millones de euros. Algunas como la asturiana Duro Felguera ya lo han manifestado a la CNMV, mientras que otras como Abengoa o Celsa negocian con la banca, pero están estudiando también las condiciones del fondo estatal.

[wanderer]

Llevo siguiendo esta cuenta desde hace unos días y, la verdad, parece un tipo preparado y hace los análisis lejos de la euforia o la superficialidad del resto de medios

[url=https://twitter.com/asanchezbe/status/1285501673620885504]https://twitter.com/asanchezbe/status/1285501673620885504[/url]

Saludos

los brexiters y euro-escépticos estáis muy nerviosos con lo de ayer, eh??

mira las portadas de hoy: https://twitter.com/Celiamaza/status/1285834263015890944

el acuerdo de ayer tiene sus sombras, pero muchas más luces

pero no me extraña que estén tan escocidos los "cayetanos" patrios y ultramontanos

primero, se crea un instrumento de deuda mancomunada para financiar el fondo de reconstrucción

segundo, se amplía el control aduanero y se dota de más medios (esto es lo que ppcc llamaba unión aduanera)

todo esto va a favor de una mayor integración y cohesión europea, aunque los "frugales" (aka tacaños) sean un grano en el culo y tengan tufo anti-europeo (supongo que alguien tenía que hacer ese papel de malote que hacían los anglos)

pero sobre todo es que; tercero, nos sueltan una morterada de pasta, pasta que irá a parar a la transición ecologico-digital (aquí la llamáis transición estructural)

el texto: https://www.consilium.europa.eu/media/45124/210720-euco-final-conclusions-es.pdf

un resaltado del texto:
A19.La Comisión evaluará los planes de recuperación y resiliencia en un plazo de dos meses a partir de su presentación. Los criterios relativos a la coherencia con las recomendaciones específicas por país así como al refuerzo del potencial de crecimiento, la creación de empleo y la resiliencia económica y social del Estado miembro deberán obtener la puntuación más alta de la evaluación. La contribución efectiva a la transición ecológica y digital también será condición indispensable para conseguir una evaluación positiva.


la gran esperanza cayetana es que no hubiera acuerdo y seguir parasitando con la zombificación del modelo muerto (pero no enterrado)

ahora, con acuerdo, tenemos pasta para el entierro y la transición (algunos dicen que insuficiente, vale, pero más insuficiente es nada y ahora tenemos 140 mil millones)
no podemos permitirnos fallar, eso sí

Ni tanto ni tan calvo... En principio, podríamos decir que el acuerdo conseguido es bueno para el gobierno y por extensión (lo cual es por añadidura, y no por consecuencia) para España. Aún así:

• Un buen acuerdo es aquél en el cual ninguna de las partes sale completamente satisfecha ni humillada; que el Sr. Schnz aparente estar exultante no significa que no se tenga que tragar muchos sapos por éste rescate encubierto: para empezar, la entrega de los dineros, aún los que van a fondo perdido, estará condicionada a ir examinando la eficacia de las partidas previas para lo que supuestamente pretendían conseguir, y además, a fondo perdido sólo va una parte.
• El Sr Rutte, jefe de los "frugales" puede decirse que no vuelve muy contento, pero por las mismas, tampoco vuelve humillado; conservará capacidad de veto sobre las partidas que se vayan a ir soltando, máxime si puede formar una minoría de bloqueo con un grupo de afines, a quienes no sería difícil, si las circunstancias llevan en el futuro a ello, unir a Alemania, cuya alma siempre ha sido en el fondo próxima a ellos.
• Descalificar como "cayetanos" a quienes no le bailan el agua a éste gobierno, como tus palabras parecen indicar, es de gran pobreza intelectual, para empezar, porque atribuye unas características comunes a un grupo que es por lo demás totalmente heterogéneo.
• Por último, la Sra CAT
  (click to show/hide)

  Cayetana Álvarez de Toledo
  , que puede ser muy discutible en sus posturas y opiniones, en todo caso tiene una formación y solidez intelectual muy por encima de la media, así que intentar descalificar a alguien comparándola con ella parece más un elogio que un insulto. En realidad, parece más bien autodescalificación de quién como tú profiera tal desatino. (A todo esto, aclaro que pese a que CAT me parezca que tenga un nivel intelectual admirable, no me gusta muchas veces su tono, y ha metido el cuezo hasta el fondo en diversas ocasiones, por señalar una, en su estrategia en el País Vasco en las pasadas elecciones).

Que tenga un buen día, caballero.

(click to show/hide)

Y a lo mejor, es usted quién debería buscarse un curro de verdad,
sobre todo si quiere compararse con ésa señora.