Re: Tema: PPCC - Pisitófilos Creditófagos - Primavera 2023

[Benzino Napaloni]

Bueno, a falta de que la ley de vivienda llegue al Senado, los periodistas ya tienen jalea para rato.

Confirmo que estos días me están llegando bastantes más alertas de lo usual, queda menos de un mes para la aprobación definitiva así que "mariquita el último". Para evitar no se sabe muy bien qué motivos inconfesables, porque los topes que pone la ley de vivienda son realmente básicos y limitados.

[el malo]

   

Cierra la división Amazon Halo, centrada en dispositivos para controlar la salud.

https://www.diariosigloxxi.com/texto-ep/mostrar/20230427121248/cierra-division-amazon-halo-centrada-dispositivos-controlar-salud

Todo esto se veía venir (no esta noticia en si) por el modelo de negocio. Amazon y Google intentan meterse en todos los nichos de mercados cuando son incipientes, en algunos triunfan, y en la mayoría desaparecen. Ejemplos de esto hay a patadas (La red social de Google, las tablets de amazon, los supermercados físicos sin cajeros de Amazon, las Google glass...)

El caso contrario es Apple, que no se mete en nada de lo que no vaya a sacar un claro beneficio. Mucho se ha hablado del Apple Car, las Apple Glass... pero no han salido al mercado. Cuando Apple saca algo al mercado, es porque tienen claro que lo van a rentabilizar.

Cuando tienes más dinero en caja que el PIB de Marruecos, por ejemplo, -caso de Google- normal que te de por diversificar. Google ha tenido fracasos sonados pero poca gente menciona los ingresos por Youtube o Waze, por los que se pagaron barbaridades en su día.
Esta gente ha lanzado satélites "porque pueden", y los pone a disposición del público gratuitamente para que nos podamos entretener viendo fotos aéreas de la casa del vecino del pueblo.

Hace un par de meses me dio por probar el supermercado de Amazon a ver de qué iba todo esto y aluciné. No va a ser mi supermercado habitual porque prefiero dar dinero a negocios que emplean a personas, pero el funcionamiento es futurista: entras, coges lo que quieras y sales. El cargo se hace a tu cuenta de Amazon sin pasar por ningún tipo de escaner, como si tuvieras a un tío siguiéndote y tomando nota de lo que vas cogiendo (todo a base de cámaras y sensores automatizados). Tiene que ser genial que un par de gemelos idénticos vayan vestidos iguales y se líen a coger cosas 

Creo que no va a triunfar por ser un adelantado a su tiempo. Obviamente esto funciona en zonas "buenas". No me imagino uno de estos en la Cañada Real.

[senslev]

Impresoritas...

https://twitter.com/xtrends/status/1651592526124417030?s=20

[Derby]

https://www.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/jpmorgan-says-sp-500-could-hit-3500-by-early-summer-432SI-3066255

JPMorgan says S&P 500 could hit 3500 'by early summer'

JPMorgan analysts have reiterated their view that the S&P 500 is overvalued and a major pullback is on its way.

JPM strategists have issued consistent warnings that the U.S. benchmark index is at risk of a correction, given macro and earnings risks.

“We have viewed the 4100-4200 as a key resistance zone and an area we did not expect the market to penetrate in a lasting or meaningful way in the first half of 2023,” the analysts said in a client note.

The mid-term support is seen around 3760 before the index could test “key levels near 3500 by early summer.”

“We believe that will ultimately set a cycle bottom, especially if that weak performance is accompanied by impulsive yield curve steepening. Until that setup emerges, we suggest maintaining a bearish bias and staying defensively positioned,” the analysts added.

On the upside, highlighted resistance levels are 4115, 4200, and 4239.

“We would need to see a sustained break above 4200 and a clear rotation to cyclical leadership not only in the US but across global markets to make us rethink our 1H23 outlook. Not only has the market respected our favored resistance and triggered systematic sell signals to bolster our stance, but the rotation away from cyclicals and recent slide in markets like copper and semiconductor equity prices make us even more confident in the outlook,” the analysts concluded.

S&P 500 is up 5.65% year-to-date.

[Derby]

https://www.wsj.com/articles/commercial-property-is-sputtering-just-ask-the-real-estate-king-of-sweden-c51345d7

Commercial Property Is Sputtering. Just Ask the ‘Real Estate King’ of Sweden.

Ilija Batljan, one of Europe’s most indebted property tycoons, is selling buildings to stabilize an empire built during ultralow interest rates

The end of the era of free money has spread financial damage far and wide, with many worried commercial real estate will be the next shoe to drop.

Just ask Ilija Batljan —one of Europe’s most indebted property tycoons.

In under a decade, the former small-town mayor built a Nordic real-estate empire on a wave of low-cost loans. His company, known as SBB, specialized in so-called “social infrastructure.” As chief executive, he has bought health clinics, schools and even police stations and leased them back to local governments. Swarms of individual investors rushed into SBB stock.

Ernst & Young, the company’s auditor, feted Mr. Batljan as Sweden’s “entrepreneur of the year” at a glitzy gala in Stockholm’s city hall.

Soaring interest rates have clenched SBB, making it among the hardest hit in Europe’s increasingly fragile property markets. Prices in the region have plunged by a fifth over the past year. Sweden’s main financial regulator warned of a “time of reckoning” for commercial property.

The company’s shares are down around 80% from a late 2021 peak, wiping out $15 billion of market value. Short sellers have targeted SBB, while S&P Global Ratings has warned of a possible downgrade, a move that could add more costs and complicate plans to pay off debts. Mr. Batljan’s finances are under pressure too. He used his own stockholdings for hefty personal borrowing.

To raise cash, last month SBB tapped part of a $890 million lifeline from private-equity giant Brookfield Asset Management, selling off a stake of a portfolio of schools and preschools.

After Silicon Valley Bank collapsed in the face of rising rates, investors homed in on risks in the global property market. Banks on both sides of the Atlantic have significant exposure to real-estate lending. So do private-equity firms and ordinary investors, who hunted for yield in the decade when interest rates fell to zero or in Europe’s case, even lower.

Many worry that the real-estate market—still grappling with pandemic-induced changes in commuting and retail patterns—could inflict broader economic damage as leases and loans come due.

The boom-bust cycle was magnified in Sweden. The finance sector there glided through the 2008 financial crisis, thanks to caution adopted after an early 1990s real-estate bust. “SBB is sort of the perfect example of what happened in the Swedish market,” said Edoardo Gili, an analyst at the real estate-focused Green Street Advisors.

SBB has the second-highest level of debt of all the companies Green Street covers, Mr. Gili said, equal to roughly 66% of the value of its assets. SBB says it calculates its debt levels differently, at roughly 49% of its portfolio value, a measure that doesn’t count a form of SBB’s so-called hybrid bonds as debt.

Mr. Batljan, 55, said SBB was well positioned given its low vacancy rate and long-term leases with governments. He said the company has quickly pivoted to strengthening its finances and has few debt maturities this year.  His personal borrowing was conservative, with plenty of cushion, he added.

“It’s not the strongest of the species that survive,” he said, paraphrasing Charles Darwin. “It’s the one that is the most adaptable to change.”

Born in Montenegro, Mr. Batljan emigrated to Sweden as war raged in his home region in the early 1990s. He earned a Ph.D. in social work and later took up a career in politics. Considered a rising star in the Swedish Social Democratic Party, he left to work at a real-estate company, where he was later pushed out, he said.

In 2016, he founded SBB, whose official name is Samhällsbyggnadsbolaget i Norden AB, and listed publicly through a reverse merger with a company focused on telecom software and online gambling.

Trading socialism for neoliberalism, Mr. Batljan eschewed skyscrapers for assets at the heart of local communities. Wielding a Rolodex of political contacts, he struck deals to buy  city-owned buildings, renting them back to the municipalities at healthy rents.

SBB’s portfolio grew to include elder-care homes, more than 10,000 regulated apartment units, a cultural center in a small town on the edge of the Arctic Circle and more than 275 preschools in Norway.

By the end of 2021, SBB had nearly 60 million square feet of space, the equivalent of 20 Empire State Buildings. A jury sponsored by Ernst & Young, in bestowing its prize for his accomplishments, dubbed him “Sweden’s real-estate king” with “ambition to become Europe’s largest real-estate company.”

An EY spokeswoman said the award was independent of its audit business and decided by an external independent panel.

Mr. Batljan, comfortable in front of cameras, added to popular appeal. He made frequent cameos on television, boasting of the company’s accomplishments. He bragged about its growth on Twitter—and attacked the company’s critics.

SBB’s stock soared, increasing by more than 13 times from 2017 to when it peaked in late 2021 with a market value of more than $18 billion. It became one of the most owned stocks in all of Sweden, with over 260,000 shareholders—more than Stockholm-based fast fashion retailer H&M Hennes & Mauritz AB, according to financial-data firm Modular Finance.

“The insane growth made it really popular among Swedish investors,” said Danne Roos, 23, an accountant from Stockholm.

Mr. Roos invested thousands of dollars two years ago, and bought more shares when prices fell. Overall, he is down over 44%. Still, he is bullish and thinks the company has weathered the storm.

Mr. Batljan is a large shareholder, and he took on debt tied to his shares through a bond offering from a company named after himself: Ilija Batljan Invest AB. His interest payments on the bonds are supported partly by the dividends from SBB stock.

SBB critics grew louder just as rising interest rates hit the company in 2022. Short sellers Viceroy Research last year released a report with an array of allegations, including a charge that SBB inflated the value it assigned its properties, then borrowed money based on those high valuations.

Mr. Batljan has criticized the short seller and denied the properties were overvalued. Independent appraisers handle valuations, SBB has said, and the company has been able to sell properties at or above the values it assigns.

In quarterly results calls, Mr. Batljan grew occasionally gruff: After a longtime Goldman Sachs property-industry analyst asked a question about cash flow, Mr. Batljan responded: “Have you worked with real estate?”

To pay down debt, Mr. Batljan spun off a portfolio of 8,000 apartments as a separate company, and unloaded office buildings, senior-care homes and warehouses. The company’s square footage fell by more than 8 million square feet in 2022.

SBB agreed late last year to sell 49% of its interest in a portfolio of preschools and other schools to Brookfield, which bought them through a fund devoted to infrastructure investments rather than through its large property arm.

Mr. Batljan has said the deal shows the company has plenty of ability to raise money through sales to well-known investors, even in a tough market. Mr. Batljan increased the dividend last quarter, a move he said was supported by cash raised from property sales.

Some analysts worry SBB will give priority to paying dividends, which help support the stock price and Mr. Batljan’s personal bonds, over paying off debt.

This month, analysts at Nordea, who had once been bullish, sent clients a note encouraging them to sell SBB. They called the dividend unsustainable and worried about a debt downgrade amid the strains from higher rates.

Inflation in Sweden is among the highest in Europe at above 10%. The central bank raised its benchmark lending rate this week another half of a percentage point to 3.5%.

Mr. Batljan is hoping for a different move: He recently tweeted about a report that predicted long-term interest rates would fall back to 0.5%.

[Cadavre Exquis]

Dropbox Lays Off 500 Employees, CEO Says Due To Slowing Growth and 'the Era of AI'
Posted by msmash on Thursday April 27, 2023 @11:20AM from the tough-luck dept.

Cloud storage giant Dropbox today joined the fray of tech companies announcing layoffs. From a report:

The company today announced that it would be laying off 16% of its staff, equivalent to about 500 employees, due to slowing growth, and -- in the words of CEO Drew Houston -- because "the AI era of computing has finally arrived." These appear to be the first layoffs the company has made since January 2021, when it laid off 315 employees in the throes of the Covid-19 pandemic.

Saludos.

P.D. Si no me equivoco, Dropbox es la primera empresa que menciona la llegada de la IA como uno de los factores que les ha llevado a tomar la decisión de prescindir de un porcentaje significativo de su plantilla, así que este post podría ir tanto en el hilo de El fin del trabajo como en el de AGI.

[Benzino Napaloni]

Dropbox Lays Off 500 Employees, CEO Says Due To Slowing Growth and 'the Era of AI'
Posted by msmash on Thursday April 27, 2023 @11:20AM from the tough-luck dept.

Cloud storage giant Dropbox today joined the fray of tech companies announcing layoffs. From a report:

The company today announced that it would be laying off 16% of its staff, equivalent to about 500 employees, due to slowing growth, and -- in the words of CEO Drew Houston -- because "the AI era of computing has finally arrived." These appear to be the first layoffs the company has made since January 2021, when it laid off 315 employees in the throes of the Covid-19 pandemic.

Saludos.

P.D. Si no me equivoco, Dropbox es la primera empresa que menciona la llegada de la IA como uno de los factores que les ha llevado a tomar la decisión de prescindir de un porcentaje significativo de su plantilla, así que este post podría ir tanto en el hilo de El fin del trabajo como en el de AGI.

Lo de Dropbox no tiene nada que ver con la IA. Su negocio principal, el que de hecho crearon, es el almacenamiento en la nube.

O tienen problemas financieros, o creen que la IA puede asumir el trabajo de varios perfiles. O ambas.

Domestika ya anunció que iba a sustituir masivamente trabajadores por IA, aunque en este caso hablamos de una empresa tan mala que si desaparece pocos la echarán de menos.

[Cadavre Exquis]

A esto deben referirse cuando dicen que la vivienda se "hunde" en EEUU

As Sea Levels Rise, the East Coast is Also Sinking
Posted by msmash on Thursday April 27, 2023 @10:40AM from the closer-look dept.

Climate scientists already know that the East Coast of the United States could see around a foot of sea-level rise by 2050, which will be catastrophic on its own. But they are just beginning to thoroughly measure a "hidden vulnerability" that will make matters far worse: The coastline is also sinking. From a report:

It's a phenomenon known as subsidence, and it's poised to make the rising ocean all the more dangerous, both for people and coastal ecosystems. New research published in the journal Nature Communications finds that the Atlantic coast -- home to more than a third of the US population -- is dropping by several millimeters per year. In Charleston, South Carolina, and the Chesapeake Bay, it's up to 5 millimeters (a fifth of an inch). In some areas of Delaware, it's as much as twice that. Five millimeters of annual sea-level rise along a stretch of coastline, plus 5 millimeters of subsidence there, is effectively 10 millimeters of relative sea-level rise.

Atlantic coastal cities are already suffering from persistent flooding, and the deluge will only get worse as they sink while seas rise. Yet high-resolution subsidence data like this isn't yet taken into account for coastal hazard assessments. "What we want to do here is to really bring awareness about this missing component, that based on our analysis actually makes the near-future vulnerability a lot worse than what you would expect from sea-level rise alone," says Manoochehr Shirzaei, an environmental security expert at Virginia Tech and coauthor of the new paper.

Saludos.

[Cadavre Exquis]

Otra que quizás encajaría mejor en el hilo de AGI. Las IAs generativas (ChatGPT, DALL·E 2 y cia.) como forma de contrarrestar el peak currantes...

Generative AI Systems Boost Productivity and Retention, Says Study
Posted by BeauHD on Thursday April 27, 2023 @06:00AM from the would-you-look-at-that dept.

dcblogs shares a report from TechTarget:

A National Bureau of Economic Research study found that generative AI boosts productivity by 14%, reduces stress, and increases employee retention in customer support roles. The workers who gained the most from this automation were newer and less experienced. Customer support is a stressful job. "A key part of agents' jobs is to absorb customer frustrations while restraining one's own emotional reaction," the paper noted. But generative AI can act as an aide, using the customer's chats as input and providing suggestions for empathetic responses and problem-solving in real-time.

The study found that generative AI reduced the likelihood of customers wanting to escalate issues to a supervisor. But it's just one study, caution analyst. David Creelman, CEO of Creelman Research in Toronto, cautioned against putting too much weight on one study. "It's too soon to start making conclusions about where this will have an impact and how big that impact will be," he said.

Saludos.

[pollo]

Mr. Batljan is hoping for a different move: He recently tweeted about a report that predicted long-term interest rates would fall back to 0.5%.

Y he aquí la mentalidad común hoy en día: todo va a ir bien porque patatas. Y no puede ir mal porque sería muy malo.

[pollo]

Dropbox Lays Off 500 Employees, CEO Says Due To Slowing Growth and 'the Era of AI'
Posted by msmash on Thursday April 27, 2023 @11:20AM from the tough-luck dept.

Cloud storage giant Dropbox today joined the fray of tech companies announcing layoffs. From a report:

The company today announced that it would be laying off 16% of its staff, equivalent to about 500 employees, due to slowing growth, and -- in the words of CEO Drew Houston -- because "the AI era of computing has finally arrived." These appear to be the first layoffs the company has made since January 2021, when it laid off 315 employees in the throes of the Covid-19 pandemic.

Saludos.

P.D. Si no me equivoco, Dropbox es la primera empresa que menciona la llegada de la IA como uno de los factores que les ha llevado a tomar la decisión de prescindir de un porcentaje significativo de su plantilla, así que este post podría ir tanto en el hilo de El fin del trabajo como en el de AGI.

El CEO dirá cualquier cancamusa que se le venga a la cabeza.

Hace mucho que los directivos de una fábrica de chorizos valen también para una de armamento o de juguetes, y hablan todos con el mismo lenguaje juntatrocolista.

[Benzino Napaloni]

@CHOSEN
Como te puedes fiar de un tipo que dice Bernard Show dos veces?
Voy a analizar lo que dice de Bertrand Russell pero me tiene toda la pinta de ser un "invent"

Tiemes aquí la supuesta cita en la que Russell defendería que hay que educar a los pobres para que crean que "la nieve es negra":
http://groupelavigne.free.fr/russell1953.pdf  (pag. 33)

El problema es que está descontextualizada: en esta parte del libro Russell habla de lo que puede llegar a hacer la ciencia aplicada a la educación (psicología de masas, conductismo, Pavlov...).

Pero si vas a la pág. 133, en las conclusiones, verás que Russell propone una sociedad dirigida por la razón y orientada hacia la prosperidad económica. Lee ahí las sugerencias que hace para contener el crecimiento de la población de India y China -usando al principio la propaganda, sí- y dime si son desvaríos conspiranoicos o reflexiones con su parte de lógica (y bien propias de un pensador ya viejo como era en el 52 Russell).

Habla de un gobierno mundial, sí, como lo hizo el Ilustrado Kant en su libro La Paz Perpetua; sigue la tradición elitista en política que arrancó con el Platón de La República, sí; pero de ahí a situarlo en un supuesto bando de esclavizadores de la raza humana creo que hay un trecho largo que Marcelino no sé qué -el autor del artículo- se ha fumado.

Un saludo Chosen y gracias por el aporte.

Se me pasó tratar esto.

Hay que tener cuidado con los nostálgicos de la dictadura. Si bien la República no fue precisamente un dechado de virtudes, el lema "una grande y libre" era toda una declaración de intenciones. "Libre" era literalmente "libre de influencias extranjeras".

Lo que en Román Paladino significa "que no vengan los de fuera a decirnos cómo tenemos que hacer las cosas".

Que si la CIA mató a Carrero, que si Europa desmanteló nuestra industria... Lo que sí está claro, porque lo llevamos en la sangre, es que tenemos mucho de paleto de pueblo que además de ignorante es orgulloso. En los 50 prácticamente no teníamos industria, y en los 60 se montó de forma atropellada y con tecnologías ya maduras. En los 80 estaba muy obsoleta y ponerla al día habría costado un dinero que no se tenía.

Incluso hoy vemos restos de esa actitud con el ridículo de Moreno en Andalucia, prometiendo lo que no podía dar y ahora viendo por dónde se escapa para disimular el fiasco.

Sánchez es un cabrón cum laude, no lo dudo. Pero la derecha haría bien en quitarse de encima esa actitud de señorito de cortijo que aún le queda. Ya en los 50 no se podía vivir aislado del mundo, así que no digamos ahora. Antes de buscar culpables, o miembros de la conspiración judeomasónica, tendrían que empezar por ellos mismos.

[Cadavre Exquis]

La Vanguardia | El Gobierno logra aprobar la primera ley de Vivienda con la derecha y los nacionalistas en contra

Saludos.

[puede ser]

https://elpais.com/economia/2023-04-27/hacienda-lanza-una-operacion-por-fraude-contra-74-empresas-de-construccion-en-14-comunidades-autonomas.html?event_log=oklogin

Hacienda lanza una operación por fraude contra 74 empresas de construcción en 14 comunidades autónomas
Los inspectores de la Agencia Tributaria acude a 71 establecimientos tras hallar “indicios de economía sumergida”

La Agencia Tributaria ha iniciado una investigación sobre 74 sociedades y 25 personas (socios, administradores y su entorno familiar) dedicadas a la venta de materiales de construcción. Hacienda ha hallado “indicios de economía sumergida” en la facturación de estas empresas. Según una nota difundida por el organismo, la facturación de esas empresas se incrementó en los últimos años —alcanzando en 2021 un importe conjunto cercano a los 280 millones—, mientras que sus márgenes netos estuvieron por debajo de los del sector. En la nota publicada este jueves, la administración fiscal especifica que 300 funcionarios han acudido a 71 locales donde existían “signos externos de riqueza”, como alquileres de cajas de seguridad o uso de tarjetas personales de alto importe.

En la inspección, denominada como Operación Argamasa, se revisaron documentos físicos y sistemas informáticos. Como resultado, se ha detectado software de ocultación de ventas en algunas tiendas, por lo que la Agencia Tributaria detalla que las investigaciones se extenderán a lo largo de los próximos meses. Las empresas bajo sospecha se encuentran distribuidas por todo el territorio español: Andalucía (, Aragón (4), Asturias (5), Baleares (3), Canarias (4), Cantabria (1), Castilla-La Mancha (1), Castilla y León (6), Cataluña (11), Extremadura (2), Galicia (, Madrid (9), Murcia (1) y Comunidad Valenciana (.

Hacienda especifica que las sociedades investigadas no pertenecen al pequeño comercio y se centra en aquellas con un gran volumen de transacción. Por otro lado, el Ministerio de Hacienda ya había apuntado, en el plan de control tributario de la Agencia, que vigilará las reformas y rehabilitaciones de vivienda con especial atención. Una buena parte de los fondos europeos Next Generation EU se invertirán en mejorar la eficiencia energética de los hogares, por lo que Hacienda destacaba la prioridad de implementar investigaciones para detectar prácticas de economía sumergida en este ámbito. En concreto, estos presupuestos europeos asignan 6.820 millones de euros a la renovación de barrios y a la mejora de la eficiencia energética de los hogares.

Gestión económica especial
El sector de venta de materiales de construcción presenta, según la Administración, unas características especiales en cuanto a su funcionamiento económico. Es un ámbito en el que el pago con tarjeta solo representa el 8% de su facturación y el pago en efectivo, un 6%. Dado que los mayores compradores de materiales de construcción son otras empresas, el volumen de operativa comercial bancaria es mayoritario, por lo que Hacienda considera que estas operaciones “merecen especial atención y un examen más exhaustivo sobre la correcta declaración de los ingresos”. En el marco de operación, además de las inspecciones presenciales, también se han enviado “cartas de aviso” a otras empresas informando de la conveniencia de que revisen sus declaraciones tributarias.

¡Es la guerra!, y por eso la quieren librar en los terrenos del Ministero de Defensa

[sudden and sharp]

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