PPCC. PIsitófilos Creditófagos. Otoño 2020

[Derby]

https://www.eleconomista.es/renta-fija/noticias/10840575/10/20/La-Comision-Europea-preve-emitir-900000-millones-de-deuda-hasta-2026-para-financiar-los-programas-de-ayuda.html

La Comisión Europea prevé emitir 900.000 millones de deuda hasta 2026 para financiar los programas de ayuda

La Comisión Europea (CE) emitirá bonos por 900.000 millones de euros hasta 2026, la mayor parte entre 2021 y 2024, para financiar su fondo SURE de ayudas contra el desempleo y el nuevo Fondo de Recuperación europeo, tras una primera y exitosa emisión de bonos sociales con la que captó 17.000 millones.

"Por primera vez tomaremos prestado en los mercados financieros a gran escala (...). Es la cantidad más alta en la historia de la UE", dijo este miércoles el comisario europeo de Presupuestos, Johannes Hahn, en una rueda de prensar para presentar la primera emisión de bonos sociales para financiar el SURE, que tuvo lugar el martes.

La Comisión emitirá 100.000 millones de euros en deuda respaldada por el conjunto de la Unión Europea para financiar el SURE y otros 800.000 millones (a precios corrientes) para nutrir el Fondo de Recuperación.(...)

[visillófilas pepitófagas]

Nosotras nos vamos a curar del alcoholismo ingiriendo cantidades nunca vistas de ginebra.

[Derby]

https://finanz.dk/china-crackdown-on-property-developer-debt-sparks-fears-about-systemic-crisis/

China Crackdown On Property Developer Debt Sparks Fears About Systemic Crisis


The recent near-death experience of China’s most-indebted property developer, China Evergrande, which obtained a last minute liquidity injection, sparked speculation whether Beijing will ease on its recent debt curbs and ongoing deleveraging approach. The answer appears to be no, because according to Reuters, Chinese regulators have asked the country’s property developers to provide more details about their debts than markets had expected, as authorities look to tackle unbridled borrowing in the real estate sector.

Dubbed “the three red lines”, regulators outlined caps on debt-to-cash, debt-to-assets and debt-to-equity ratios at a meeting in Beijing in August between 12 major property developers and officials from the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development and the People’s Bank of China. The twelve companies, which collectively account for 28% of the homes sold in the country so far this year – and as a reminder, China’s real estate sector is where the bulk of China’s middle class has parked its net worth – were selected for a pilot debt reduction scheme as policymakers look to reduce broader financial risks.



As a result of the new policy, developers’ annual debt growth will be effectively capped to around 15%.

While property sources had said they expected a rush to get around the rules by moving more debt off balance sheets, in a form that developers were asked to submit every month, the companies are also being asked for details on items outside the usual financing channels like bank loans and bond issuance. They will need to provide debt figures on off-balance sheet projects.

According to Reuters, other debt information requested include details on projects that give a financial entity guaranteed returns and buy-back agreements – essentially a debt disguised as equity, as well as the amount of securitization of receivables in the supply chain. In short, Beijing wants a full accounting of everything going on at local developers.

“The government is monitoring everything now, unless you want to cheat, but they will be able to tell from your monthly figures,” said a senior executive at one of the developers in the pilot scheme.

Following concerns of too much developer leverage sparked by Evergrande’s liquidity crisis, Chinese media reported that the cap for the debt-to-assets ratio will be set at 70%, the cap for net debt to equity will be set at 100% and the developers should also have enough cash to match their short-term liabilities. While authorities have yet to announcement details of the implementation, the industry expects the rules to be applied sector-wide in the first half of next year.

As we reported last month, the massively indebted China Evergrande Group, the country’s second largest property developer, has been among those scrambling to raise money, with fears of a cash-crunch sending its shares and bonds skidding last month.

If these reports of leverage crackdown are accurate, it could pose a systemic risk to China’s most important industry: according to analysts at ANZ, about one-fifth of real estate companies with China A-shares have leverage ratios exceeding the thresholds. They warn that a sharp reduction in leverage “could rattle credit markets and weigh heavily on the property sector”, a key driver behind China’s swift economic recovery from the coronavirus crisis.

In a note published two weeks ago, SocGen China anlyst Wei Yao wrote that “a new chapter of deleveraging has begun”:

A succession of events in the past few weeks have pushed the debt risk of China’s real estate sector to the forefront. Markets were at one point deeply concerned about the default risk of Evergrande, China’s biggest property developer. And even worse–the risk of a systemic debt crisis that could follow. This situation, while still developing, has calmed somewhat. However, this is probably really only the beginning of a new deleveraging campaign.

It all started with the government’s proposal to contain developers’ leverage. On 20 August, the PBoC and the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development (MOHURD) held a meeting with key real estate companies where policymakers proposed the so-called “three red lines” framework for monitoring debt risk and reducing leverage in the sector. According to media reports, the “three  red  lines” were drawn up based on three financial metrics, including 1) the debt-to-asset ratio, 2) the net debt ratio,and 3) cash flows to short-term debt ratio.

Future debt growth of real estate companies will be restricted in various degrees based on their current leverage as measured by  these metrics (see the table below). In  the harshest scenario, a developer will not be allowed to raise any more debt. Based on its current financial situation, Evergrande would in fact fall into this category.

This sudden deleveraging pressure has already proved to be very real and material. So much so, in fact, that less than two weeks  after the August proposal surfaced, Evergrande started to offer aggressive discounts to boost sales and cash flows – as it is limited how much new debt it can raise – and culminated with the company’s liquidity crisis in late September, when news broke hat Evergrande had asked for financial assistance from the government with a warning of possible systemic risk in the case of inaction, which immediately triggered sharp risk-off both onshore and offshore in both equity and credit markets. Though Evergrande later denied this claim, financial markets did not calm down until the developer secured some relief from its investors on 29 September (more in the full timeline below):



As SocGen’s Yao warns, if the proposal is implemented to its full extent, “it would construe a significant deleveraging push on the whole sector.” According to Bloomberg’s analysis of 180 listed property companies, 8% of them are in the red group, 15% are in the orange, 30% in the yellow and less than half, or 47% in the green category.

Therefore, well over half of the combined balance sheet of the entire real estate sector would face material deleveraging pressure over the medium term.

Meanwhile, Yao also cautions that while the Evergrande risk may or may not have been completely resolved, “this incident certainly does not mark the end of the housing sector deleveraging” and in fact quite the opposite:

these events have steeled the resolve of policymakers’ to push ahead with their deleveraging agenda, as they have laid bare the financial fragility of this sector and offered policymakers a glimpse of the magnitude of the threat that such fragility could pose to  the financials ystem.

Of course, deleveraging – especially in such a debt-reliant nation as China – is another word for contraction, and since tens of trillions of mainland household net worth are housed, so to speak, in China’s housing sector which has served as a remarkable ponzi scheme in recent years, failing to slow down even during domestic crises, the lack of unbridled developer debt issuance and new growth, could have catastrophic consequences on the broader economy.

Pan Gongsheng, a PBOC vice governor, told a forum in Beijing on Wednesday the central bank has the draft of an overall assessment over property financing ready and it will make a public announcement at the right time, without further elaboration.

[Derby]

https://www.expansion.com/mercados/2020/10/22/5f912382e5fdea641e8b45cc.html

Aedas Homes mantiene el dividendo pero lo abonará en 2021

Aedas Homes mantiene el pago del dividendo de un euro por acción en efectivo, correspondiente al ejercicio 2020-2021, y lo abonará íntegramente el próximo año, según ha comunicado la compañía a la Comisión Nacional del Mercado de Valores (CNMV).

Dado el actual contexto económico derivado de la pandemia del Covid-19, el consejo de administración de la promotora ha tomado la decisión de diferir el pago del dividendo a cuenta de 0,50 euros, previsto inicialmente para noviembre de este año, en coherencia con la política de preservación de capital implementada por la sociedad desde marzo como medida para asegurar disponibilidad máxima de tesorería y salvaguarda de la solvencia de la compañía.

De esta forma, Aedas Homes abonará el dividendo de forma íntegra tras la formulación de cuentas del ejercicio 2020-2021 prevista para el próximo mes de mayo, compartiendo de este modo los beneficios generados con sus accionistas.(...)

[Derby]

https://www.expansion.com/economia/2020/10/22/5f914884468aeb13148b4600.html?intcmp=NOT002

La deuda pública aumenta en agosto hasta un récord de 1,3 billones

La deuda del conjunto de las administraciones públicas alcanzó en agosto un nuevo récord al situarse en 1.298.736 millones de euros, lo que supone un incremento de 7.357 millones con respecto a julio.

[PopArt]

South Korea finance minister loses home as housing policy comes back to haunt 

https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-southkorea-economy-housing-finmin-idUKKBN2770R3?taid=5f914ec9b3855100018c122e&utm_campaign=trueAnthem:+Trending+Content&utm_medium=trueAnthem&utm_source=twitter

South Korea’s finance minister, the architect of rules aimed at protecting tenants and slowing deposit increases, has himself been forced to look for a new home as landlords react to the rules by quickly replacing tenants so they can bump up deposits.

For a comparable three-bedroom apartment in Hong’s complex in up-market Mapo, western Seoul, the finance minister would now face deposits that have surged 32% in three months to 830 million won (557,537 pounds), showed data from Naver Real Estate.

Hong, who has served the government for over 30 years, had a net worth of 1.06 billion won at December-end, government data showed.

[Lem]

South Korea finance minister loses home as housing policy comes back to haunt 

https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-southkorea-economy-housing-finmin-idUKKBN2770R3?taid=5f914ec9b3855100018c122e&utm_campaign=trueAnthem:+Trending+Content&utm_medium=trueAnthem&utm_source=twitter

South Korea’s finance minister, the architect of rules aimed at protecting tenants and slowing deposit increases, has himself been forced to look for a new home as landlords react to the rules by quickly replacing tenants so they can bump up deposits.

For a comparable three-bedroom apartment in Hong’s complex in up-market Mapo, western Seoul, the finance minister would now face deposits that have surged 32% in three months to 830 million won (557,537 pounds), showed data from Naver Real Estate.

Hong, who has served the government for over 30 years, had a net worth of 1.06 billion won at December-end, government data showed.

¿pero esto no es un tragatochos invertido? landlords juegan y ganan según interpreto leyendo el artículo.

[wanderer]

Para que quede claro que todo en éste país es un paripé:

El Gobierno, dispuesto a retirar su polémica reforma del CGPJ y negociar la renovación
Como gesto a los 'populares' para tratar de reconducir la negociación de la renovación del órgano de gobierno de los jueces y del resto de instituciones bloqueadas
https://www.elconfidencial.com/espana/2020-10-22/el-gobierno-dispuesto-a-retirar-su-polemica-reforma-del-cgpj-y-negociar-la-renovacion_2801012/

[Maloserá]

South Korea finance minister loses home as housing policy comes back to haunt 

https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-southkorea-economy-housing-finmin-idUKKBN2770R3?taid=5f914ec9b3855100018c122e&utm_campaign=trueAnthem:+Trending+Content&utm_medium=trueAnthem&utm_source=twitter

South Korea’s finance minister, the architect of rules aimed at protecting tenants and slowing deposit increases, has himself been forced to look for a new home as landlords react to the rules by quickly replacing tenants so they can bump up deposits.

For a comparable three-bedroom apartment in Hong’s complex in up-market Mapo, western Seoul, the finance minister would now face deposits that have surged 32% in three months to 830 million won (557,537 pounds), showed data from Naver Real Estate.

Hong, who has served the government for over 30 years, had a net worth of 1.06 billion won at December-end, government data showed.

¿pero esto no es un tragatochos invertido? landlords juegan y ganan según interpreto leyendo el artículo.

Como no entendía ese valor por deposito de alquiler en un pais con sueldos mas o menos equiparables a un pais europeo medio, he estado googleando rapido lo del deposito en Corea S. Es un mercado inmobiliario directamente psicodélico. 1.1% rentabilidad del alquiler en el centro de Seul en teoria. Con depositos de un cuarto de millon de euros... Por la tarde me lo leo con calma. Por si alguien tiene tiempo....

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jeonse

https://www.numbeo.com/property-investment/in/Seoul?displayCurrency=EUR

[visillófilas pepitófagas]

Para que quede claro que todo en éste país es un paripé:

El Gobierno, dispuesto a retirar su polémica reforma del CGPJ y negociar la renovación
Como gesto a los 'populares' para tratar de reconducir la negociación de la renovación del órgano de gobierno de los jueces y del resto de instituciones bloqueadas
https://www.elconfidencial.com/espana/2020-10-22/el-gobierno-dispuesto-a-retirar-su-polemica-reforma-del-cgpj-y-negociar-la-renovacion_2801012/

No sabemos si es paripé o toque de la UE. Ayer leímos en algún sitio que les habían llamado la atención por el tema.

[el malo]

South Korea finance minister loses home as housing policy comes back to haunt 

https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-southkorea-economy-housing-finmin-idUKKBN2770R3?taid=5f914ec9b3855100018c122e&utm_campaign=trueAnthem:+Trending+Content&utm_medium=trueAnthem&utm_source=twitter

South Korea’s finance minister, the architect of rules aimed at protecting tenants and slowing deposit increases, has himself been forced to look for a new home as landlords react to the rules by quickly replacing tenants so they can bump up deposits.

For a comparable three-bedroom apartment in Hong’s complex in up-market Mapo, western Seoul, the finance minister would now face deposits that have surged 32% in three months to 830 million won (557,537 pounds), showed data from Naver Real Estate.

Hong, who has served the government for over 30 years, had a net worth of 1.06 billion won at December-end, government data showed.

Yo lo que saco de esta noticia es que en el país de las patentes y el I+D, el equivalente a nuestro Ministro de Economía es un señor que alquila piso y encima el casero le manda a la calle. Ni se mete en hipotecones, ni el Gobierno le provee de vivienda en la capital, ni amedrenta al casero y además es perfectamente consciente de los problemas de los ciudadanos porque los está viviendo en sus propias carnes.

¿Se imaginan a un Ministro del reino teniendo los mismos problemas que un ciudadano normal? O peor aún, ¿ser un apestado inquilino?

[Bayne]

Para que quede claro que todo en éste país es un paripé:

El Gobierno, dispuesto a retirar su polémica reforma del CGPJ y negociar la renovación
Como gesto a los 'populares' para tratar de reconducir la negociación de la renovación del órgano de gobierno de los jueces y del resto de instituciones bloqueadas
https://www.elconfidencial.com/espana/2020-10-22/el-gobierno-dispuesto-a-retirar-su-polemica-reforma-del-cgpj-y-negociar-la-renovacion_2801012/

No sabemos si es paripé o toque de la UE. Ayer leímos en algún sitio que les habían llamado la atención por el tema.

Diría que es un paripé para dejarlo como está; si se atuvieran al "estándar" europeo, al menos la mitad de los miembros del consejo deben ser jueces elegidos por sus pares, cosa que ya no sucede.

"Condición sine qua non para luchar contra la corrupción"

https://twitter.com/chemadepablo/status/1318972771607695361

[sudden and sharp]

Para que quede claro que todo en éste país es un paripé:

El Gobierno, dispuesto a retirar su polémica reforma del CGPJ y negociar la renovación
Como gesto a los 'populares' para tratar de reconducir la negociación de la renovación del órgano de gobierno de los jueces y del resto de instituciones bloqueadas
https://www.elconfidencial.com/espana/2020-10-22/el-gobierno-dispuesto-a-retirar-su-polemica-reforma-del-cgpj-y-negociar-la-renovacion_2801012/

No sabemos si es paripé o toque de la UE. Ayer leímos en algún sitio que les habían llamado la atención por el tema.

De paripé, nada. Lo han intentado y si cuela, cuela... No coló, afortunadamente. (Y sí, en mi opinión lo que ha inclinado la balanza es Europa... y sus dineritos.)

[wanderer]

Sí y no, sudden: yo creo que por parte de Huncidas **demos, efectivamente era un "si cuela, cuela", dada la más que obvia vocación totalitaria de PIT y sus adláteres, pero los sociolistos, pese al asquito que dan, saben mejor lo que se hacen y eran perfectamente conscientes de que eso no tenía ni medio pase. Si a tal cosa le añadimos que la moción de censura de los de Vox los ha descalificado al situarse descaradamente en un discurso antieuropeo, pues el Pp ha aprovechado para sacudírselos de encima y salvar la cara en esto que yo creo que tiene pinta de haber estado previamente acordado.

Mis dos centimillos (que no sé si me quitarán...)

[sudden and sharp]

Sí y no, sudden: yo creo que por parte de Huncidas **demos, efectivamente era un "si cuela, cuela", dada la más que obvia vocación totalitaria de PIT y sus adláteres, pero los sociolistos, pese al asquito que dan, saben mejor lo que se hacen y eran perfectamente conscientes de que eso no tenía ni medio pase. Si a tal cosa le añadimos que la moción de censura de los de Vox los ha descalificado al situarse descaradamente en un discurso antieuropeo, pues el Pp ha aprovechado para sacudírselos de encima y salvar la cara en esto que yo creo que tiene pinta de haber estado previamente acordado.

Mis dos centimillos (que no sé si me quitarán...)

A ver... no es imposible lo que dices, pero tal vez es mucha pirueta. Hasta Polonia se apuntaba a la fiesta. (Y se han tenido que pronunciar los jueces y el Consejo de Europa.)

Aunque después de lo del Brexit --el "cabreo" de Johnson sería porque la UE no incluía el término "intensifying"--...., pues a saber. El caso es que juegan con fuego... y luego la culpa es tuya.