PPCC. PIsitófilos Creditófagos. Verano 2020

[Derby]

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-labor-market-is-weakening-feds-kaplan-says-2020-08-03

U.S. labor market is weakening, Fed’s Kaplan says

Dallas Fed President now sees jobless rate in 9%-10% range at end of the year

The expected rebound this quarter “is more muted” than expected and, as a result, the unemployment rate this year will likely be higher than previously thought, said Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan on Monday.

“I think we’ve got a rebound, but it is much more muted than it was,” Kaplan said in an interview on Bloomberg Television.

He said he now expected an unemployment rate in a range of 9%-10% at the end of the year. That is up from his earlier forecast of 8% year-end unemployment rate. The unemployment rate was at 11.1% in June and estimates are for July to show a 10.5% rate, according to an average estimate of economists polled by MarketWatch.

[Lurker]

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-britain-russia-hack-exclusive/exclusive-papers-leaked-before-uk-election-in-suspected-russian-operation-were-hacked-from-ex-trade-minister-sources-idUSKCN24Z1V4

Exclusive: Papers leaked before UK election in suspected Russian operation were hacked from ex-trade minister - sources

LONDON (Reuters) - Classified U.S.-UK trade documents leaked ahead of Britain’s 2019 election were stolen from the email account of former trade minister Liam Fox by suspected Russian hackers, two sources with direct knowledge of the matter told Reuters.

The sources, who spoke on condition of anonymity because a law enforcement investigation is underway, said the hackers accessed the account multiple times between July 12 and Oct. 21 last year.

They declined to name which Russian group or organisation they believed was responsible, but said the attack bore the hallmarks of a state-backed operation.

The Kremlin did not immediately respond to a request for comment on Monday.

Among the stolen information were six tranches of documents detailing British trade negotiations with the United States, which Reuters first reported last year were leaked and disseminated online by a Russian disinformation campaign.

British foreign minister Dominic Raab confirmed that report last month, saying that “Russian actors” had sought to interfere in the election “through the online amplification of illicitly acquired and leaked Government documents”.

Reuters was not able to determine which of Fox’s email accounts was hacked and when it was first compromised. It is not clear if Fox, who is still a member of parliament but stood down as trade minister on July 24 last year in a cabinet reshuffle, was a minister at the time.

A British government spokeswoman said: “There is an ongoing criminal investigation into how the documents were acquired, and it would be inappropriate to comment further at this point.”

She added that the government had “very robust systems in place to protect the IT systems of officials and staff.”

Representatives for Fox declined to comment on the details of Reuters findings.

The hack of Fox’s account - which has not been previously reported - and subsequent leak of the classified documents ahead of last year’s election is one of the most direct examples of suspected Russian attempts to meddle in British politics.

In the past, Moscow has repeatedly denied allegations of election meddling in Britain, France, the United States and other countries. Russia’s foreign ministry described the latest British accusations by Raab as “foggy and contradictory”.

A British parliamentary report released last month found that Moscow had tried to influence a referendum on Scottish independence in 2014, and that Britain’s government had failed to adequately investigate possible Russian attempts to sway the 2016 vote on Brexit.

Fox’s email account was hacked using a so-called “spear phishing” message, which tricks the target into handing over their password and login details, the sources said.

The sources said it was not clear if the hackers who stole the trade documents were the same people who later leaked them online.

After first being posted online by an anonymous internet user in the run-up to last year’s vote, the stolen documents were seized on by Britain’s opposition Labour Party during the election campaign.

It said they showed a government plot to sell the much-loved National Health Service to the United States, an accusation Prime Minister Boris Johnson has repeatedly denied.

https://www.zerohedge.com/political/cia-fabricated-russiagate-evidence-says-former-nsa-tech-chief

"Binney has now laid out, in this speech, the evidence that he wants to present in court against Barack Obama’s CIA, that it defrauded Americans to believe in “Russiagate” (the allegation that Russia ‘hacked’ the computers of Hillary Clinton and Democratic Party officials and fed that information to Wikileaks and other organizations). Binney cites evidence, which, if true, conclusively proves that Russiagate was actually created fraudulently by the CIA’s extensive evidence-tampering, which subsequently became covered-up by the Special Counsel Robert Mueller, in his investigations for the Democratic Party’s first (and failed) try at impeaching and removing from office U.S. President Donald J. Trump."

Russia everywhere or nowhere?

[senslev]

https://northmantrader.com/2020/08/03/somethings-rotten/

First to note: The yield curve inversion of 2019. It, like many others before, precipitated a recession in the US. As did the weakening in equal weight ($XVG). None of this is unusual and it highlights how the broader business cycle (with Covid the historic trigger exacerbating everything) is actually performing no different than it has before. The only thing that’s different here is the historic asset bubble we have in some key stocks and the records amount of liquidity thrown at these markets.


Now you can argue the banks are hurting because of low yields, but we had low yields in 2016 and banks rallied just fine along with the rest of the market.

What you see in the big chart above though is that the market highs in 1998-2000 an 2006-2007 an even 2014/2015 all had the banking sector participate with either new all time highs or new cycle highs at the time.

Not this time. Not even close. $BKX can’t ever get to the June highs and remains far below all time highs. Rather $BKX is trading at the 2015 levels from 5 years ago. Maybe the price action will change with another stimulus package coming in the next few days.

But as it stands, the weakness in banks signals larger structural issues brewing that the market is currently ignoring. Indeed perhaps the bank stocks are signaling that the Fed’s interventions are not anywhere near as effective as record highs in $NDX and near record highs in $SPX suggest.

The previous, and smaller recessions in comparison, have had price consequences that lasted years. The current main index price action has you believe that price consequences only mattered for 4 weeks.

We’ll likely find out more following a decision on the next stimulus package. But if markets are supposedly forward looking then perhaps everybody should ask themselves: What are the bank stocks seeing that the rest of the liquidity drenched market is currently ignoring?

Something is rotten.

[saturno]

Pido un comentario didactico (incluso subjetivo) al post anterior de Senslev

[BENDITALIQUIDEZ]

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/fed-planning-send-money-directly-americans-next-crisis

..the response was striking: they two propose creating a monetary tool that they call recession insurance bonds, which draw on some of the advances in digital payments, which will be wired instantly to Americans.

As Coronado explains the details, Congress would grant the Federal Reserve an additional tool for providing support—say, a percent of GDP [in a lump sum that would be divided equally and distributed] to households in a recession. Recession insurance bonds would be zero-coupon securities, a contingent asset of households that would basically lie in wait. The trigger could be reaching the zero lower bound on interest rates or, as economist Claudia Sahm has proposed, a 0.5 percentage point increase in the unemployment rate. The Fed would then activate the securities and deposit the funds digitally in households’ apps.

As Potter then elucidates, "it took Congress too long to get money to people, and it’s too clunky. We need a separate infrastructure. The Fed could buy the bonds quickly without going to the private market. On March 15 they could have said interest rates are now at zero, we’re activating X amount of the bonds, and we’ll be tracking the unemployment rate—if it increases above this level, we’ll buy more. The bonds will be on the asset side of the Fed’s balance sheet; the digital dollars in people’s accounts will be on the liability side."

And that, in a nutshell, is how the Fed will stimulate the economy in the next crisis in hopes of circumventing the reserve creation process: it will use digital money apps (which explains the Fed's recent fascination with cryptocurrency and digital money) to transfer money directly to US consumers.

To be sure, the narrative is already set for how the Fed will "sell" this direct transfer of money to the rest of the world and the broader US population: as Coronado explains "it’s the most efficient from a macroeconomic standpoint in supporting spending and confidence. The fear of unemployment acts as an accelerant on a recession. There’s a shock—people are losing their jobs or worry about losing their jobs. They get very risk-averse. [By] getting money to consumers you can limit the depth and duration of a recession."

And the kicker:

"you could actually generate real inflation. It could be beneficial for not only avoiding negative rates but creating a more healthy interest-rate market, a more healthy yield curve."

So there you have it: the one thing that was missing from a decade of monetary tinkering by the Fed, the spark of inflation, will finally arrive as the Fed gives money to those most likely to spend it: the lower and middle classes of society.

But wait, there's more: now that the Fed is implicitly focusing on racial inequality, and soon explicitly with Joe Biden going so far as to urge the Fed to fight "racial economic inequality" and former Minneapolis Fed president Kocherlakota writing an op-ed in which he said the Fed "should have a third mandate on racial inquality", the stage is now set for the Fed to specifically release funds for those who have "suffered from inequality", and once the time comes when the narrative allows to deploy reparations or direct funding to minorities, the Fed will be ready.

¿Esto no son "patagones" digitales?

¿Acaso la FED necesita una app para hacer transferencias a cuentas privadas del sector bancario y crear dinero para llenarlas?

No lo necesita, de lo que está hablando es de crear un dólar de segunda división para que el helicóptero no afecte al dólar bueno.

¿no?

[uno]

El 65% de la oferta hotelera en España está en mano de 250 cadenas

La pandemia acelerará la concentración hotelera... y ya hay movimientos

En la hotelería española el grado de concentración de la oferta es “notablemente bajo”, ya que el 65% está en manos de 250 cadenas y el 35% restante pertenece a operadores independientes, según un informe de Banca March. Pero eso podría cambiar a partir de la COVID-19, por la “complejidad del nuevo entorno”. Como viene publicando HOSTELTUR, desde el comienzo de la pandemia la consultora Deloitte advierte que poscoronavirus se observarán procesos de consolidación de marcas y operaciones para conseguir liquidez. En las últimas horas ya empezaron a observarse movimientos: las cadenas Be Live (Globalia) y Bluebay Hotels estudian su fusión y, de concretarse, el grupo resultante gestionaría un inventario de cerca de 100 hoteles y más de 21.000 habitaciones, la mayoría en categoría 4 y 5 estrellas, distribuidos en más de 15 países.


https://www.hosteltur.com/138410_la-pandemia-acelerara-la-concentracion-hotelera-y-ya-hay-movimientos.html

[Derby]

https://cincodias.elpais.com/cincodias/2020/08/03/companias/1596476764_173202.html

Las pérdidas llegan a las grandes socimis por la caída de valor de los inmuebles

Colonial y Lar España entran en números rojos por las tasaciones de sus carteras
Estas inmobiliarias ven afectadas también sus rentas



La etapa gloriosa para las socimis ha concluido. Nacidas desde la nada a partir del año 2014, estas sociedades cotizadas de inversión en el mercado inmobiliario no habían hecho más que crecer casi exponencialmente dando brillo al renacer del nuevo ciclo inmobiliario. Pero llegó la pandemia de Covid-19. En el primer semestre del año, por primera vez se han producido pérdidas para dos de ellas, Lar España y Colonial, debido a la pérdida de valor de los inmuebles, y los ingresos han comenzado a resentirse. Surge una nueva época para estas inmobiliarias.(...)

[hispanic_exodus]

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/fed-planning-send-money-directly-americans-next-crisis

..the response was striking: they two propose creating a monetary tool that they call recession insurance bonds, which draw on some of the advances in digital payments, which will be wired instantly to Americans.

As Coronado explains the details, Congress would grant the Federal Reserve an additional tool for providing support—say, a percent of GDP [in a lump sum that would be divided equally and distributed] to households in a recession. Recession insurance bonds would be zero-coupon securities, a contingent asset of households that would basically lie in wait. The trigger could be reaching the zero lower bound on interest rates or, as economist Claudia Sahm has proposed, a 0.5 percentage point increase in the unemployment rate. The Fed would then activate the securities and deposit the funds digitally in households’ apps.

As Potter then elucidates, "it took Congress too long to get money to people, and it’s too clunky. We need a separate infrastructure. The Fed could buy the bonds quickly without going to the private market. On March 15 they could have said interest rates are now at zero, we’re activating X amount of the bonds, and we’ll be tracking the unemployment rate—if it increases above this level, we’ll buy more. The bonds will be on the asset side of the Fed’s balance sheet; the digital dollars in people’s accounts will be on the liability side."

And that, in a nutshell, is how the Fed will stimulate the economy in the next crisis in hopes of circumventing the reserve creation process: it will use digital money apps (which explains the Fed's recent fascination with cryptocurrency and digital money) to transfer money directly to US consumers.

To be sure, the narrative is already set for how the Fed will "sell" this direct transfer of money to the rest of the world and the broader US population: as Coronado explains "it’s the most efficient from a macroeconomic standpoint in supporting spending and confidence. The fear of unemployment acts as an accelerant on a recession. There’s a shock—people are losing their jobs or worry about losing their jobs. They get very risk-averse. [By] getting money to consumers you can limit the depth and duration of a recession."

And the kicker:

"you could actually generate real inflation. It could be beneficial for not only avoiding negative rates but creating a more healthy interest-rate market, a more healthy yield curve."

So there you have it: the one thing that was missing from a decade of monetary tinkering by the Fed, the spark of inflation, will finally arrive as the Fed gives money to those most likely to spend it: the lower and middle classes of society.

But wait, there's more: now that the Fed is implicitly focusing on racial inequality, and soon explicitly with Joe Biden going so far as to urge the Fed to fight "racial economic inequality" and former Minneapolis Fed president Kocherlakota writing an op-ed in which he said the Fed "should have a third mandate on racial inquality", the stage is now set for the Fed to specifically release funds for those who have "suffered from inequality", and once the time comes when the narrative allows to deploy reparations or direct funding to minorities, the Fed will be ready.

¿Esto no son "patagones" digitales?

¿Acaso la FED necesita una app para hacer transferencias a cuentas privadas del sector bancario y crear dinero para llenarlas?

No lo necesita, de lo que está hablando es de crear un dólar de segunda división para que el helicóptero no afecte al dólar bueno.

¿no?

O de un test beta de proto Universal Basic Income ... Por ahí van los tiros en mi humilde opinión, intuyo que BCE anunciará algo semejante como parte del paquete de ayudas.

Sds,

[BENDITALIQUIDEZ]

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/fed-planning-send-money-directly-americans-next-crisis

..the response was striking: they two propose creating a monetary tool that they call recession insurance bonds, which draw on some of the advances in digital payments, which will be wired instantly to Americans.

As Coronado explains the details, Congress would grant the Federal Reserve an additional tool for providing support—say, a percent of GDP [in a lump sum that would be divided equally and distributed] to households in a recession. Recession insurance bonds would be zero-coupon securities, a contingent asset of households that would basically lie in wait. The trigger could be reaching the zero lower bound on interest rates or, as economist Claudia Sahm has proposed, a 0.5 percentage point increase in the unemployment rate. The Fed would then activate the securities and deposit the funds digitally in households’ apps.

As Potter then elucidates, "it took Congress too long to get money to people, and it’s too clunky. We need a separate infrastructure. The Fed could buy the bonds quickly without going to the private market. On March 15 they could have said interest rates are now at zero, we’re activating X amount of the bonds, and we’ll be tracking the unemployment rate—if it increases above this level, we’ll buy more. The bonds will be on the asset side of the Fed’s balance sheet; the digital dollars in people’s accounts will be on the liability side."

And that, in a nutshell, is how the Fed will stimulate the economy in the next crisis in hopes of circumventing the reserve creation process: it will use digital money apps (which explains the Fed's recent fascination with cryptocurrency and digital money) to transfer money directly to US consumers.

To be sure, the narrative is already set for how the Fed will "sell" this direct transfer of money to the rest of the world and the broader US population: as Coronado explains "it’s the most efficient from a macroeconomic standpoint in supporting spending and confidence. The fear of unemployment acts as an accelerant on a recession. There’s a shock—people are losing their jobs or worry about losing their jobs. They get very risk-averse. [By] getting money to consumers you can limit the depth and duration of a recession."

And the kicker:

"you could actually generate real inflation. It could be beneficial for not only avoiding negative rates but creating a more healthy interest-rate market, a more healthy yield curve."

So there you have it: the one thing that was missing from a decade of monetary tinkering by the Fed, the spark of inflation, will finally arrive as the Fed gives money to those most likely to spend it: the lower and middle classes of society.

But wait, there's more: now that the Fed is implicitly focusing on racial inequality, and soon explicitly with Joe Biden going so far as to urge the Fed to fight "racial economic inequality" and former Minneapolis Fed president Kocherlakota writing an op-ed in which he said the Fed "should have a third mandate on racial inquality", the stage is now set for the Fed to specifically release funds for those who have "suffered from inequality", and once the time comes when the narrative allows to deploy reparations or direct funding to minorities, the Fed will be ready.

¿Esto no son "patagones" digitales?

¿Acaso la FED necesita una app para hacer transferencias a cuentas privadas del sector bancario y crear dinero para llenarlas?

No lo necesita, de lo que está hablando es de crear un dólar de segunda división para que el helicóptero no afecte al dólar bueno.

¿no?

O de un test beta de proto Universal Basic Income ... Por ahí van los tiros en mi humilde opinión, intuyo que BCE anunciará algo semejante como parte del paquete de ayudas.

Sds,

Sí, por supuesto, eso está claro, pero me refiero a que ese ingreso no estará denominado en dólares normales, parece como si fuera un circuito totalmente distinto, no me extrañaría que ese dinero no se pudiera gastar en lo que quieras.

Y el hecho de que hablen de una "app" vinculada al móvil del destinatario es para que no se pueda crear un mercado paralelo de intercambio de patagones por dólares buenos.

Es una especie de cartilla de raciionamiento digital, con app glamurosa.

Abrir aplicaciones---> FEDApp---> usar saldo---> aliexpress---> "lo sentimos, el emisor del crédito no permite operaciones con el eje del mal, prueba a comprar productos made in USA".

[Lurker]

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/fed-planning-send-money-directly-americans-next-crisis

..the response was striking: they two propose creating a monetary tool that they call recession insurance bonds, which draw on some of the advances in digital payments, which will be wired instantly to Americans.

As Coronado explains the details, Congress would grant the Federal Reserve an additional tool for providing support—say, a percent of GDP [in a lump sum that would be divided equally and distributed] to households in a recession. Recession insurance bonds would be zero-coupon securities, a contingent asset of households that would basically lie in wait. The trigger could be reaching the zero lower bound on interest rates or, as economist Claudia Sahm has proposed, a 0.5 percentage point increase in the unemployment rate. The Fed would then activate the securities and deposit the funds digitally in households’ apps.

As Potter then elucidates, "it took Congress too long to get money to people, and it’s too clunky. We need a separate infrastructure. The Fed could buy the bonds quickly without going to the private market. On March 15 they could have said interest rates are now at zero, we’re activating X amount of the bonds, and we’ll be tracking the unemployment rate—if it increases above this level, we’ll buy more. The bonds will be on the asset side of the Fed’s balance sheet; the digital dollars in people’s accounts will be on the liability side."

And that, in a nutshell, is how the Fed will stimulate the economy in the next crisis in hopes of circumventing the reserve creation process: it will use digital money apps (which explains the Fed's recent fascination with cryptocurrency and digital money) to transfer money directly to US consumers.

To be sure, the narrative is already set for how the Fed will "sell" this direct transfer of money to the rest of the world and the broader US population: as Coronado explains "it’s the most efficient from a macroeconomic standpoint in supporting spending and confidence. The fear of unemployment acts as an accelerant on a recession. There’s a shock—people are losing their jobs or worry about losing their jobs. They get very risk-averse. [By] getting money to consumers you can limit the depth and duration of a recession."

And the kicker:

"you could actually generate real inflation. It could be beneficial for not only avoiding negative rates but creating a more healthy interest-rate market, a more healthy yield curve."

So there you have it: the one thing that was missing from a decade of monetary tinkering by the Fed, the spark of inflation, will finally arrive as the Fed gives money to those most likely to spend it: the lower and middle classes of society.

But wait, there's more: now that the Fed is implicitly focusing on racial inequality, and soon explicitly with Joe Biden going so far as to urge the Fed to fight "racial economic inequality" and former Minneapolis Fed president Kocherlakota writing an op-ed in which he said the Fed "should have a third mandate on racial inquality", the stage is now set for the Fed to specifically release funds for those who have "suffered from inequality", and once the time comes when the narrative allows to deploy reparations or direct funding to minorities, the Fed will be ready.

¿Esto no son "patagones" digitales?

¿Acaso la FED necesita una app para hacer transferencias a cuentas privadas del sector bancario y crear dinero para llenarlas?

No lo necesita, de lo que está hablando es de crear un dólar de segunda división para que el helicóptero no afecte al dólar bueno.

¿no?

O de un test beta de proto Universal Basic Income ... Por ahí van los tiros en mi humilde opinión, intuyo que BCE anunciará algo semejante como parte del paquete de ayudas.

Sds,

Sí, por supuesto, eso está claro, pero me refiero a que ese ingreso no estará denominado en dólares normales, parece como si fuera un circuito totalmente distinto, no me extrañaría que ese dinero no se pudiera gastar en lo que quieras.

Y el hecho de que hablen de una "app" vinculada al móvil del destinatario es para que no se pueda crear un mercado paralelo de intercambio de patagones por dólares buenos.

Es una especie de cartilla de raciionamiento digital, con app glamurosa.

Abrir aplicaciones---> FEDApp---> usar saldo---> aliexpress---> "lo sentimos, el emisor del crédito no permite operaciones con el eje del mal, prueba a comprar productos made in USA".

Go digital. Un paso más en dirección a la supervisión de los movimientos de cada unidad monetaria sobre el estamento base de la pirámide. El trade-off de aceptar este dinero (por necesidad) es la restricción de la libertad de las operaciones. Dependencia absoluta de lo que papá tenga a bien dispensar. Pagas libertad por seguridad.

No?

Ps. Solamente falta el carné de créditos por buen ciudadano.

[PastorMesetario]

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/fed-planning-send-money-directly-americans-next-crisis

..the response was striking: they two propose creating a monetary tool that they call recession insurance bonds, which draw on some of the advances in digital payments, which will be wired instantly to Americans.

As Coronado explains the details, Congress would grant the Federal Reserve an additional tool for providing support—say, a percent of GDP [in a lump sum that would be divided equally and distributed] to households in a recession. Recession insurance bonds would be zero-coupon securities, a contingent asset of households that would basically lie in wait. The trigger could be reaching the zero lower bound on interest rates or, as economist Claudia Sahm has proposed, a 0.5 percentage point increase in the unemployment rate. The Fed would then activate the securities and deposit the funds digitally in households’ apps.

As Potter then elucidates, "it took Congress too long to get money to people, and it’s too clunky. We need a separate infrastructure. The Fed could buy the bonds quickly without going to the private market. On March 15 they could have said interest rates are now at zero, we’re activating X amount of the bonds, and we’ll be tracking the unemployment rate—if it increases above this level, we’ll buy more. The bonds will be on the asset side of the Fed’s balance sheet; the digital dollars in people’s accounts will be on the liability side."

And that, in a nutshell, is how the Fed will stimulate the economy in the next crisis in hopes of circumventing the reserve creation process: it will use digital money apps (which explains the Fed's recent fascination with cryptocurrency and digital money) to transfer money directly to US consumers.

To be sure, the narrative is already set for how the Fed will "sell" this direct transfer of money to the rest of the world and the broader US population: as Coronado explains "it’s the most efficient from a macroeconomic standpoint in supporting spending and confidence. The fear of unemployment acts as an accelerant on a recession. There’s a shock—people are losing their jobs or worry about losing their jobs. They get very risk-averse. [By] getting money to consumers you can limit the depth and duration of a recession."

And the kicker:

"you could actually generate real inflation. It could be beneficial for not only avoiding negative rates but creating a more healthy interest-rate market, a more healthy yield curve."

So there you have it: the one thing that was missing from a decade of monetary tinkering by the Fed, the spark of inflation, will finally arrive as the Fed gives money to those most likely to spend it: the lower and middle classes of society.

But wait, there's more: now that the Fed is implicitly focusing on racial inequality, and soon explicitly with Joe Biden going so far as to urge the Fed to fight "racial economic inequality" and former Minneapolis Fed president Kocherlakota writing an op-ed in which he said the Fed "should have a third mandate on racial inquality", the stage is now set for the Fed to specifically release funds for those who have "suffered from inequality", and once the time comes when the narrative allows to deploy reparations or direct funding to minorities, the Fed will be ready.

¿Esto no son "patagones" digitales?

¿Acaso la FED necesita una app para hacer transferencias a cuentas privadas del sector bancario y crear dinero para llenarlas?

No lo necesita, de lo que está hablando es de crear un dólar de segunda división para que el helicóptero no afecte al dólar bueno.

¿no?

O de un test beta de proto Universal Basic Income ... Por ahí van los tiros en mi humilde opinión, intuyo que BCE anunciará algo semejante como parte del paquete de ayudas.

Sds,

Sí, por supuesto, eso está claro, pero me refiero a que ese ingreso no estará denominado en dólares normales, parece como si fuera un circuito totalmente distinto, no me extrañaría que ese dinero no se pudiera gastar en lo que quieras.

Y el hecho de que hablen de una "app" vinculada al móvil del destinatario es para que no se pueda crear un mercado paralelo de intercambio de patagones por dólares buenos.

Es una especie de cartilla de raciionamiento digital, con app glamurosa.

Abrir aplicaciones---> FEDApp---> usar saldo---> aliexpress---> "lo sentimos, el emisor del crédito no permite operaciones con el eje del mal, prueba a comprar productos made in USA".

Es exactamente eso -de momento-.

Si, además, a los "tokens" de esas "cartillas" les ponen fecha de caducidad, estaremos ante una distopía pronosticada hace bastante tiempo y con una exactitud escalofriante.

Cuando hablábamos de estas cosas hace diez años, nos tomaban por gilipollas. Casi que yo mismo me tomaba a mí mismo por gilipollas, intentando auto-convencerme de que "eso no iba a pasar".

Si tienen tiempo, lean los últimos informes del BIS y vean lo que ha salido del último World Economic Forum. Quizá les parezca ciencia ficción distópica al estilo Orwell-Huxley-Bradbury (¿podemos hablar del patrón OHB  ?), pero es real.

[Maloserá]

Sí, por supuesto, eso está claro, pero me refiero a que ese ingreso no estará denominado en dólares normales, parece como si fuera un circuito totalmente distinto, no me extrañaría que ese dinero no se pudiera gastar en lo que quieras.

Y el hecho de que hablen de una "app" vinculada al móvil del destinatario es para que no se pueda crear un mercado paralelo de intercambio de patagones por dólares buenos.

Es una especie de cartilla de raciionamiento digital, con app glamurosa.

Abrir aplicaciones---> FEDApp---> usar saldo---> aliexpress---> "lo sentimos, el emisor del crédito no permite operaciones con el eje del mal, prueba a comprar productos made in USA".

Go digital. Un paso más en dirección a la supervisión de los movimientos de cada unidad monetaria sobre el estamento base de la pirámide. El trade-off de aceptar este dinero (por necesidad) es la restricción de la libertad de las operaciones. Dependencia absoluta de lo que papá tenga a bien dispensar. Pagas libertad por seguridad.

No?

Ps. Solamente falta el carné de créditos por buen ciudadano.

Si pero tampoco creo que sea ese el objetivo final, sino el proteccionismo por la puerta de atrás ...  Y tiene su lógica: 'beggars cannot be choosers'. Si esas ayudas las van a pagar (a traves de impuestos o inflación) los que trabajan en ese país, tampoco es una idea tan mala el condicionar las ayudas a consumir productos y servicios nacionales, o dirigir ese consumo a lo que se crea conveniente. Esto no es dinero ganado, sino 'regalado'. Había visto un gráfico hace algun tiempo con las ayudas públicas que dió Miterrand en los 80, y el aumento de importaciones de coches alemanes en Francia. Si no hacen algo como cupones en USA acabarían subsidiando importaciones chinas. Los cupones para canjear por comida funcionan allá desde hace mucho tiempo.

Supongo que la UE prohibiría algo así a países miembros individualmente, pero si se hace en todo el bloque en un momento de crisis grave creo que se aceptaría. Más o menos es lo que quiere Rutte (y queremos muchos aquí) pero en escala 'individuo' en vez de 'estado'

Yo estoy en contra de restricciones al comercio, a la libertad del consumidor, a los precios máximos, a la RBU y a los sueldos mínimos así en general. Pero tal como está la cosa, con unos copiando, otros monopolizando, muchos subsidiando y unos cuantos esclavizando pues hago tantas excepciones que ya no sé cual es la regla.

[visillófilas pepitófagas]

Nosotras entendemos que serían dólares normales, no tokens, pero totalmente digitales. Con lo cual podrían auditar y restringir su uso, como comentáis, si quisieran.

Esto va en la dirección del UBI, pero - más importante - para nosotras supone que la banca central ningunea a la banca comercial, al menos a la minorista, por ser incapaz de hacer de correa de transmisión del dinero "hasta la calle" y por usar ese dinero de los bancos centrales en carry trades (el BC me presta al -1% y me cobra un 0,5% por depositar en él, pues ahí se queda el dinero) o inversiones arriesgadas, ya que son las únicas que ahora dan rentabilidad mayor que la inflación y el modelo de negocio tradicional de la banca no funciona con tipos bajos.

Este tipo de experimentos parecen marcar el principio del fin de la banca minorista tradicional. Y un Amazon u otro FAANG podría cubrir una parte del hueco (por ejemplo, los préstamos): tienen más cash que los bancos y "conocen mejor" (espían) al consumidor. Tiempos interesantes.

[Marv]

Podría ser una jugada brillante, aunque con lagunas.

Control fiscal absoluto - blockchain, ni bancolchón ni peluqueras a domicilio.
Pseudo RBU enmascarada - para siempre o sólo para cuando haga falta
Control sobre el destino del nuevo dinero - el principal problema de los quantitatives

Surgen preguntas. De ser en moneda diferente aka "mortadelos digitales", ¿cómo se articula el tipo de cambio con la moneda fuerte? ¿hay conversión o será un mercado cotizado? ¿ser rico en mortadelos? Y por otro lado, ¿qué le pasaría a la moneda fuerte, cuando ya no intervenga en un % de las transacciones habituales (oferta/demanda --> tipo de cambio)?

Si deciden hacerlo con dolares/euros pero en formato digital, la barrera tiene que ser en la entrada y la salida (es decir, no hay convertibilidad), o de lo contrario a todos los efectos no supondría nada diferente a lo que ya hay.

Interesante.

[TotalReturn]

Unas cuantas reflexiones a vuela pluma (teclado)

Moneda digital y RGI, bien vale bueno, mi madre tu madre y la vecina sexuagenaria del quinto junto a los “injenieros” del frente Subsahariano, no tendrían ciertas dificultades para aprender a usar esa app y comprar online introduciendo el token pin + cvv + personal pin?Tendremos un gran nicho de mercado para el I+D patrio en tecnología asistencial? Dedicará Matías Prats 5 minutos del telediarreo a explicar como se usa el euro digital?

La inflación esta controladisima, y tanto, como que estamos en una gigantesca deflación por deuda (dinero fortísimo) y lo que queda..., si esa ingente masa monetaria que no llega a Juan Español, pasara a hacerlo, que pasaría con la inflación? Doble dígito? No va esto en contra de los postulados del Maestro de era 0? Permitirá Alemania y Jurgen ahorrador (y su pánico a la inflacion) que el BCE vaya en esa dirección?

Que incentivos perversos en el mercado laboral crearía regalar una renta mínima de subsistencia generalizada? El efecto llamada seria ahora si, brutal e incontrolable excepto que se impusieran controles migratorios serios, Australia y Canada saben un rato de ello.

Por ultimo, el oro, esta hablando alto y claro, y no parece que se vaya a callar mientras sigan imprimiendo sine die, canario en la mina, cantando sin parar. Lean a cerca del respaldo del yuan digital, que lo respaldaría? Y al dólar/euro digital?

Cuando en la historia imprimir billetes de la nada ha creado riqueza, lo haga Agamenon (bancos comerciales) o su Porquero (bancos centrales)?

Vayan haciendo sus deberes si no los han hecho ya