GRECIA 2015

[Currobena]

La venganza se sirve en frio?



Grecia cede en su pulso con Berlín y acepta solicitar una prórroga de seis meses en el rescate que vencía este mismo mes. El encargado de anunciarlo ha sido el presidente del Eurogrupo, Jeroen Dijsselbloem, de una forma [todavía] poco ortodoxa: a través de su cuenta de Twitter. El acuerdo incluye la prórroga técnica del acuerdo que firmó el Gobierno de Antonis Samaras con la troika y que entró en vigor el 1 de enero pasado. Ahora, se firmará previsiblemente un nuevo acuerdo tomando como base este acuerdo que está a punto de expirar
http://cincodias.com/cincodias/2015/02/19/mercados/1424338882_325428.html

Crack bursátil en septiembre, me temo. Y recogeré my owned gustoso si llega el caso.

[Маркс]

Qué venganza ni qué platos fríos?

Grecia ha solicitado la extensión de la ayuda financiera por seis meses que no la prórroga del programa de rescate al Eurogrupo que expira el próximo 28 de febrero, que es donde está el meollo.

Mientras tanto y para atemperar el Juncker soltando eso de "Hemos pecado contra la dignidad de griegos, portugueses e irlandeses".

Queda mucha tela que cortar.

[Mad Men]

Respecto a las negociaciones de Grecia

Sin duda llegarán a un acuerdo, a los dos les interesa.Ahora están jugando al Juego de la gallina, los dos se aproximan a alta velocidad hacia el precipicio, el primero que frene pierde, todo postureo, pura imagen, no importa lo que uno consiga, sino dejar claro ante tus votantes que lo has logrado, dejando la verdad a un pequeño grupo de expertos.
El juego de llegar al precipicio es para mostrarse duros ante la población, nada nuevo.

Lo único malo de este modo de negociación es que hace perder mucho tiempo.

[sudden and sharp]

Qué venganza ni qué platos fríos?

Grecia ha solicitado la extensión de la ayuda financiera por seis meses que no la prórroga del programa de rescate al Eurogrupo que expira el próximo 28 de febrero, que es donde está el meollo.

Mientras tanto y para atemperar el Juncker soltando eso de "Hemos pecado contra la dignidad de griegos, portugueses e irlandeses".

Queda mucha tela que cortar.

Lo de la venganza va por la foto. (Que no la he elegido yo.)

Lo demás... llámalo x.

[...] Los socios de la Zona euro, con Alemania a la cabeza, habían vuelto a advertir ayer que, al margen de los juegos de palabras, el primer ministro griego, Alexis Tsipras, no tiene otra alternativa que asumir los compromisos adquiridos por Gobiernos anteriores en nombre del Estado griego. Una vez que Atenas ha aceptado esa premisa, todas las capitales parecen dispuestas a flexibilizar las condiciones del rescate y a otorgar cierto margen de maniobra presupuestaria para que el Gobierno de Syriza lleve a cabo parte de su programa electoral. [...]

Por supuesto, le darán margen para venderlo, pero lo que firmaron gobiernos anteriores va a misa. Tanto un extremo como el otro, es correcto.

Lo que no vale, es incumplir lo acordado via "promesa electoral".

[muyuu]

Telegraph y Guardian tienen actualizaciones en directo sobre este tema:

http://www.theguardian.com/business/blog/live/2015/feb/19/greece-to-seek-bailout-extension-after-33bn-lifeline

[breades]

La foto que ilustra es ésta:



La otra es para despistar.

[wanderer]

Respecto a las negociaciones de Grecia

Sin duda llegarán a un acuerdo, a los dos les interesa.Ahora están jugando al Juego de la gallina, los dos se aproximan a alta velocidad hacia el precipicio, el primero que frene pierde, todo postureo, pura imagen, no importa lo que uno consiga, sino dejar claro ante tus votantes que lo has logrado, dejando la verdad a un pequeño grupo de expertos.
El juego de llegar al precipicio es para mostrarse duros ante la población, nada nuevo.

Lo único malo de este modo de negociación es que hace perder mucho tiempo.

Sí y no:

• Sí: Ciertamente, estamos ante un juego de la gallina.
• No: Sin embargo, sí que es posible llegar al desastre, porque por mucho postureo que haya, las percepciones por cada uno de los jugadores de cómo y dónde se encuentra el otro es muy posible que se encuentren más o menos desenfocadas; a lo mejor el choque y el desastre se producen aunque ninguno lo pretendiera.

Más:

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-02-12/greek-game-theory-risk-negative-outcome-higher-market-thinks

[sudden and sharp]

Grecia pide a Europa la extensión de la ayuda financiera durante seis meses
http://internacional.elpais.com/internacional/2015/02/19/actualidad/1424339269_115000.html

Alemania ya ha rechazado la propuesta. "La carta de Atenas no cumple con los criterios acordados en el Eurogrupo el lunes", ha afirmado el portavoz del ministro alemán de Finanzas, Wolfgang Schäuble, en un breve comunicado. "No es una propuesta sustancial para una solución. (…) En verdad tiene como objetivo la financiación puente, sin cumplir los requisitos del programa".[...]

Tenía razón Marx. (Pero sigue la partida.)

[Sidartah]

Se ha dicho por aquí cienes de veces y estoy en la misma línea: es un problema político, no económico.

Si Bruselas cede considerablemente ante Grecia, el resto de países en la misma situación pedirían las mismas condiciones dado el precedente sentado. Ahora Schäuble ha de hacer de poli malo porque Italia, Portugal y España (?) tienen los ojos puestos en el proceso.

Saludos

[muyuu]

Seguimos tensando la cuerda, hasta el último minuto.

Reuters says the message from Greece is that eurogroup finance ministers have two options tomorrow - accept the deal it has put on the table or reject it.

19-Feb-2015 14:29 - GREEK GOVT SAYS EUROGROUP TOMORROW HAS ONLY TWO OPTIONS, TO EITHER ACCEPT OR REJECT OFFER MADE BY GREECE TODAY

19-Feb-2015 14:30 - GREEK GOVT SAYS EUROGROUP’S DECISION WILL SHOW WHO WANTS A SOLUTION AND WHO DOES NOT

Comments by former French president Valery Giscard d’Estaing re Greece leaving the euro zone have caused some commotion.

The former president, who worked hard to promote Greece’s entry to the European Union described Athens’ admission to the single currency in 2001 as “evidently a mistake” this morning and advocated that the debt-stricken now make a “friendly exit.”

Igual les acaban dando la patada.

Es un escenario que muchos contemplan, hacer de Grecia un ejemplo para que los países que importan no sigan esta vía (Italia, España, incluso Francia). Grecia por su tamaño sería el chivo expiatorio más propicio para ello.


---------

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-31532755

Germany has rejected a Greek request for a six-month extension to its eurozone loan programme.

The rejection came despite the European Commission calling the Greek request "positive" only minutes earlier.

Greece had sought a new six-month assistance package, rather than a renewal of the existing deal that comes with tough austerity conditions.

However, a German finance ministry spokesman said it was "not a substantial proposal for a solution".

The BBC's Mark Lowen in Athens says Germany's rejection of the Greek proposal suggested "a rift between Brussels and Berlin at the very highest level".

"It's not yet clear which side will prevail, and which side will give ground, but clearly the hopes that Greece was moving towards a deal... have been thrown into doubt once again."

The Greek request letter includes a pledge to maintain "fiscal balance" for a six-month period, while it negotiates with eurozone partners over long-term growth and debt reduction.

The Greek government was also reported as saying that its extension proposal was in order to give Athens enough time, without the threat of "blackmail and time deficits", to draw up a new agreement with Europe for growth over the next four years.

The German finance ministry spokesman said the Greek request was an attempt at "bridge financing, without meeting the requirements of the programme. The letter does not meet the criteria agreed upon in the Eurogroup on Monday."

'Positive sign'
But shortly before the German rejection of the proposal, a European Commission spokesman said that Commission president Jean-Claude Juncker regarded the letter as a "positive sign, which, in his assessment, could pave the way for a reasonable compromise in the interest of the financial stability in the euro area as a whole".

"The detailed assessment of the [Greek loan] letter and the response is now up to the Eurogroup," the spokesman added, referring to the discussions due to take place on Friday when European finance ministers meet in Brussels.

line break
Analysis: Damien McGuinness, BBC correspondent, Berlin
The main problem between Greece and Germany is an ideological one: Athens wants to stop saving and start spending to get out of the crisis.

But Berlin believes that's exactly what caused the crisis in the first place, and remains convinced that the only path to long-term economic health is to make Greece more competitive.

To make matters worse Berlin is clearly frustrated by Greece's negotiating tactics. Newspaper commentators accuse Athens of theatrical grandstanding - rather than constructively finding a compromise. And the occasional references to Nazis - such as a recent cartoon in a pro-Syriza newspaper depicting German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble in a World War Two German army uniform - have clearly not helped.

In a radio interview Mr Schaeuble said he had a thick skin. But also added that it's unwise to insult the people you're asking to help you.

There is however also a lot of sympathy in Germany for the plight of Greek people. And an awareness of the importance of keeping Greece in the Eurozone. But increasingly it seems, not at any price.

line
Friday's vote on the Greek proposals must be unanimous. If no agreement appears likely before the ministers gather, the meeting could be postponed.

The uncertainty was reflected on stock markets, with the FTSE 100 and Frankfurt's DAX index both losing early gains after Germany's rejection.

Mirabaud Securities trader John Plassard said: "Investors think that even if a deal is reached, it won't mean that the 'Greek issue' will be resolved. There will be serious doubts on whether Greece will fully implement the agreement."

Greece faces running out of money by the end of the month without a deal and deposits continue to flow out of its banks.

Popular tabloid Bild has a double-page spread featuring pictures of Vladimir Putin and Alexis Tsipras with the headline: "The Russian or the Greek: who is more dangerous for us?" Underneath it says: "Europe is in the most difficult crisis it's seen for decades -- because two heads of government are aggressively demonstrating their power."

A commentary in Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung says: "The Greek government appears to believe it can treat its partners like fools," accusing the Greek government of using Brussels like a stage for theatrics, adding that many people have simply had enough.

And the business paper Handelsblatt says the request for a loan extension changes very little. "It remains unclear whether Athens is willing to meet the conditions set by its creditors." And that, the paper says, is crucial for the meeting of European finance ministers on Friday.

[Lego]

Se ha dicho por aquí cienes de veces y estoy en la misma línea: es un problema político, no económico.

Si Bruselas cede considerablemente ante Grecia, el resto de países en la misma situación pedirían las mismas condiciones dado el precedente sentado. Ahora Schäuble ha de hacer de poli malo porque Italia, Portugal y España (?) tienen los ojos puestos en el proceso.

Saludos

¡Por supuesto que lo que decidan se aplicará en el futuro a otros países!   De eso se trata la pugna, porque por fin hay un país que no soporta la tensión de la estructura actual, lo que pone a la UE en el trance de empezar a resolver sus problemas metafísicos ya, o intentar doblegar al gobierno griego con el riesgo que ello supone de provocar una secuencia de eventos difícilmente controlables.   

Por eso yo no diría que esto sea un juego de la gallina, donde uno gana y el otro pierde.  Aquí hay opciones claras a win-win, si se llega a algo serio quizá se termine con el método del patadón pa'lante y la procrastinización con las garrapatas medulares. Y si todo sale fatal, lose-lose-lose-lose en cadena, bum bum.    Entre ambos resultados extremos, un mundo de posibilidades.   

[Lego]

Seguimos tensando la cuerda, hasta el último minuto.

(click to show/hide)

Reuters says the message from Greece is that eurogroup finance ministers have two options tomorrow - accept the deal it has put on the table or reject it.

19-Feb-2015 14:29 - GREEK GOVT SAYS EUROGROUP TOMORROW HAS ONLY TWO OPTIONS, TO EITHER ACCEPT OR REJECT OFFER MADE BY GREECE TODAY

19-Feb-2015 14:30 - GREEK GOVT SAYS EUROGROUP’S DECISION WILL SHOW WHO WANTS A SOLUTION AND WHO DOES NOT

Comments by former French president Valery Giscard d’Estaing re Greece leaving the euro zone have caused some commotion.

The former president, who worked hard to promote Greece’s entry to the European Union described Athens’ admission to the single currency in 2001 as “evidently a mistake” this morning and advocated that the debt-stricken now make a “friendly exit.”

Igual les acaban dando la patada.

Es un escenario que muchos contemplan, hacer de Grecia un ejemplo para que los países que importan no sigan esta vía (Italia, España, incluso Francia). Grecia por su tamaño sería el chivo expiatorio más propicio para ello.


---------

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-31532755

Germany has rejected a Greek request for a six-month extension to its eurozone loan programme.

The rejection came despite the European Commission calling the Greek request "positive" only minutes earlier.

Greece had sought a new six-month assistance package, rather than a renewal of the existing deal that comes with tough austerity conditions.

However, a German finance ministry spokesman said it was "not a substantial proposal for a solution".

The BBC's Mark Lowen in Athens says Germany's rejection of the Greek proposal suggested "a rift between Brussels and Berlin at the very highest level".

"It's not yet clear which side will prevail, and which side will give ground, but clearly the hopes that Greece was moving towards a deal... have been thrown into doubt once again."

The Greek request letter includes a pledge to maintain "fiscal balance" for a six-month period, while it negotiates with eurozone partners over long-term growth and debt reduction.

The Greek government was also reported as saying that its extension proposal was in order to give Athens enough time, without the threat of "blackmail and time deficits", to draw up a new agreement with Europe for growth over the next four years.

The German finance ministry spokesman said the Greek request was an attempt at "bridge financing, without meeting the requirements of the programme. The letter does not meet the criteria agreed upon in the Eurogroup on Monday."

'Positive sign'
But shortly before the German rejection of the proposal, a European Commission spokesman said that Commission president Jean-Claude Juncker regarded the letter as a "positive sign, which, in his assessment, could pave the way for a reasonable compromise in the interest of the financial stability in the euro area as a whole".

"The detailed assessment of the [Greek loan] letter and the response is now up to the Eurogroup," the spokesman added, referring to the discussions due to take place on Friday when European finance ministers meet in Brussels.

line break
Analysis: Damien McGuinness, BBC correspondent, Berlin
The main problem between Greece and Germany is an ideological one: Athens wants to stop saving and start spending to get out of the crisis.

But Berlin believes that's exactly what caused the crisis in the first place, and remains convinced that the only path to long-term economic health is to make Greece more competitive.

To make matters worse Berlin is clearly frustrated by Greece's negotiating tactics. Newspaper commentators accuse Athens of theatrical grandstanding - rather than constructively finding a compromise. And the occasional references to Nazis - such as a recent cartoon in a pro-Syriza newspaper depicting German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble in a World War Two German army uniform - have clearly not helped.

In a radio interview Mr Schaeuble said he had a thick skin. But also added that it's unwise to insult the people you're asking to help you.

There is however also a lot of sympathy in Germany for the plight of Greek people. And an awareness of the importance of keeping Greece in the Eurozone. But increasingly it seems, not at any price.

line
Friday's vote on the Greek proposals must be unanimous. If no agreement appears likely before the ministers gather, the meeting could be postponed.

The uncertainty was reflected on stock markets, with the FTSE 100 and Frankfurt's DAX index both losing early gains after Germany's rejection.

Mirabaud Securities trader John Plassard said: "Investors think that even if a deal is reached, it won't mean that the 'Greek issue' will be resolved. There will be serious doubts on whether Greece will fully implement the agreement."

Greece faces running out of money by the end of the month without a deal and deposits continue to flow out of its banks.

Popular tabloid Bild has a double-page spread featuring pictures of Vladimir Putin and Alexis Tsipras with the headline: "The Russian or the Greek: who is more dangerous for us?" Underneath it says: "Europe is in the most difficult crisis it's seen for decades -- because two heads of government are aggressively demonstrating their power."

A commentary in Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung says: "The Greek government appears to believe it can treat its partners like fools," accusing the Greek government of using Brussels like a stage for theatrics, adding that many people have simply had enough.

And the business paper Handelsblatt says the request for a loan extension changes very little. "It remains unclear whether Athens is willing to meet the conditions set by its creditors." And that, the paper says, is crucial for the meeting of European finance ministers on Friday.

 Si no aparecen las siglas NATO, el análisis es incompleto. Para mi, pavoneo cara a la galería.

Ahora voy a leerlo, a ver qué dice    Seguro que es interesante.
 

Por cierto, de la foto esa, la primera, a mi lo que me llama la atención es cómo mira a Yanis ese gallifante del fondo.  Mezcla de incredulidad y admiración, o algo así "Este pringao se cree que va a cambiar Europa pero hay que reconocerlo, vaya huevos y qué duro lo está poniendo, wow.

[muyuu]

Si no aparecen las siglas NATO, el análisis es incompleto. Para mi, pavoneo cara a la galería.

Ahora voy a leerlo, a ver qué dice    Seguro que es interesante.

En la OTAN manda EEUU, en la UE/Eurozona manda principalmente Alemania. Ni mucho menos están siempre de acuerdo.

Es perfectamente plausible y ahora mismo incluso probable que Grecia acabe fuera del euro pero dentro de la OTAN (posiblemente fuera de la UE). No sería el único país de la OTAN en Europa que no pertenece ni a la eurozona ni a la UE.

[Lego]

Ah, claro que es plausible, Grecia en la OTAN y fuera del Euro, e incluso fuera de la UE.

Otra cosa es que esté claro que ese sería el final.  Sobre todo si es Rusia la que asiste a Grecia en caso de expulsión y la ayuda a comenzar su versión de la TE.   A eso me refería con el riesgo de empezar una cadena de sucesos de difícil pronóstico final.

 En medio de una guerra económica (y militar en grado proxy) por el futuro energético de Europa cualquier otra trama es secundaria. Se hará lo que se tenga que hacer y se justificará como sea necesario.

[muyuu]

Ah, claro que es plausible, Grecia en la OTAN y fuera del Euro, e incluso fuera de la UE.

Otra cosa es que esté claro que ese sería el final.  Sobre todo si es Rusia la que asiste a Grecia en caso de expulsión y la ayuda a comenzar su versión de la TE.   A eso me refería con el riesgo de empezar una cadena de sucesos de difícil pronóstico final.

 En medio de una guerra económica (y militar en grado proxy) por el futuro energético de Europa cualquier otra trama es secundaria. Se hará lo que se tenga que hacer y se justificará como sea necesario.

No apostaría por ese escenario. Rusia ni siquiera se interesó por Chipre que hubiera sido más plausible.

Tienen Turquía ahí al lado, no van a hacer el tonto con salirse de la OTAN o duran tres tardes.