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SPIEGEL ONLINE02/20/2012 04:18 PMUS Economist Kenneth Rogoff'Germany Has Been the Winner in the Globalization Process'In an interview with SPIEGEL, Harvard economist Kenneth Rogoff, 58, says it was a mistake to bring all the southern European countries into the common currency. He also argues that Greece should be granted a "sabbatical" from the euro and that a United States of Europe may take shape far sooner than many believe.SPIEGEL: Mr. Rogoff, the eurozone finance ministers are likely to soon provide Greece with new loans totalling €130 billion ($171 billion), with the aim of stabilizing the country for the next few years. Will that save the euro?Rogoff: It is hardly the final word, even for Greece. The mountain of debt in Greece is simply too big and the country is not competitive. Indeed, it's going to be very difficult to keep Greece in the euro zone.SPIEGEL: But the government has announced tough austerity measures. Pensions are being cut, wages frozen. Those kinds of measures are almost unheard of in Europe.Rogoff: But they're still not enough. To make Greece competitive, wages would have to be halved. That is impossible to implement politically, but without a steep wage cut, the economy will continue to stagnate. Greece urgently needs the prospect of growth. It is currently experiencing its fifth consecutive year of recession. This is a failure of historic dimensions.SPIEGEL: But surely it can't get any worse? Many economists are saying that the crisis in Greece has bottomed out and the worst is over.Rogoff: I would be more cautious. The problem in Greece is not an ordinary recession but a full-blown financial crisis, something which countries usually take a lot longer to recover from. This kind of economic collapse goes much deeper than a normal slowdown. The longer the economy continues to shrink, the more restless the trade unions get, and the more pressure builds up on politicians to put an end to the misery.SPIEGEL: What cure would you prescribe?Rogoff: The government in Athens should be granted a kind of sabbatical from the euro, while otherwise remaining a full member of the European Union. The country would leave the monetary union and reintroduce the drachma, for example. The drachma would immediately trade at deep discount to the euro, making Greece's export and tourism sectors competitive again. Once the country had achieved a higher level of social, political and economic development, it could return to the euro zone.SPIEGEL: Most European politicians seem to dismiss that as unviable. They see a Greek exit as the beginning of the end for the euro zone.Rogoff: I don't see it that way. Of course, Europe would have to assure Greece that it would not be punished in any way for taking such a step. And there would have to be a credible road map for Greece's eventual return.SPIEGEL: If Greece were to leave the euro zone, a wave of panic might engulf other countries struggling with debt, such as Portugal. How can we prevent the contagion from spreading?Rogoff: If Greece leaves the euro, the markets will demand sensible answers to two questions. First, which countries should definitely keep the euro? And second, what price is Europe prepared to pay for that? The problem is that the Europeans don't have convincing answers to those questions.SPIEGEL: What advice would you give Merkel and her counterparts? Should they tear the euro zone apart?Rogoff: No, certainly not. We are talking about bending not breaking, with one or more periphery countries allowed to leave temporarily in order to enjoy greater flexibility. There is currently no simple solution for this unparalleled crisis. The big mistakes were made in the 1990s.SPIEGEL: Does that mean the whole idea of the euro was a mistake?Rogoff: No, a common currency for countries like Germany and France was a reasonable risk, given the political dividends. But it was a grave mistake to bring all the south European states into the euro zone purely for reasons of political union. Most of them were not ready for it economically.SPIEGEL: That may well be, but the fact is that now they are part of the monetary union, and that can't simply be unravelled.Rogoff: Which is why there is only one alternative: Either the euro completely collapses -- with all the catastrophic consequences that would entail -- or the core members of the currency union manage to turn the euro zone into a genuine political union.SPIEGEL: Europe has recently agreed on a fiscal compact committing all members to better budgetary discipline. Is that a step in the right direction?Rogoff: Yes, but it will by no means suffice. All this treaty does is give the markets the temporary illusion that the problems have been solved for now. It has achieved nothing more than that.SPIEGEL: What is needed instead?Rogoff: What the monetary union needs more than anything is a central government, including a a finance minister, with significant tax and spending authority. The individual countries should also stop insisting on national control of banking regulation. That is a matter that should be dealt with exclusively at European level.SPIEGEL: Do you honestly believe that the countries in the euro zone can bring themselves to hand over that much more power to Brussels?Rogoff: The terrible thing is that few countries in Europe seem genuinely prepared for that. Those politicians who know what is needed keep quiet, fearing opposition from the voters. But the pressure of this crisis will create a momentum whose scope and impact we cannot yet imagine. At the end of the day, the United States of Europe may well come about a lot quicker than many would have thought.SPIEGEL: With all respect to your optimism, the Europeans are unlikely to play along with that. The popular opinion in most member states is that Europe has far too much power, not too little.Rogoff: Europe is in an interim stage, quite similar to that in late 18th century America. The ratification of the United States constitution in 1788 was preceded by 12 years of a loose confederation, which sometimes worked but usually didn't. Europe is in a similar situation today. States are like people, it is difficult to sustain a stable half-marriage; either you go for it or you forget it.SPIEGEL: Many politicians in Europe think that the introduction of euro bonds would pave the way for a marriage later. Do you share that opinion?Rogoff: No. In the current situation euro bonds would be absolutely the wrong solution. How could Germany protect itself if the French minister of finance makes a few bad decisions? The subject of euro bonds will only become relevant once the political union has been established.SPIEGEL: Economic imbalances within the euro zone are regarded as one of the main reasons behind the current mess. The southern European states accuse the Germans of exporting too much. Do they have a point?Rogoff: That is absurd. Portugal's and Spain's problem isn't Germany, it's China. The south Europeans have to understand that they cannot maintain their current standard of living in the context of globalization without significant economic reform. There are great opportunities for those who can adapt to the new realities.SPIEGEL: That's not really music to Spanish or Italian ears.Rogoff: Perhaps, but I think most Italians and Spaniards well understand the challenges.SPIEGEL: What reforms do the governments need to implement?Rogoff: Wages in southern Europe have risen sharply over the past few years, but these countries traditionally produce relatively simple goods like textiles. They are no longer competitive in a global context, which is why production has shifted to Asia. The Federal Republic of Germany, by contrast, has an innovative industrial sector whose high-quality products are very much in demand in emerging economies. That is why Germany has been the winner in the globalization process, while Portugal, Spain, Italy and others are among the losers.SPIEGEL: That is why some economists have suggested that Germany should increase wages to strengthen demand in Europe. Would you agree with that?Rogoff: No, because Germany faces many competitors outside Europe, who would jump at the chance of seeing a less competitive Germany. There are only two options. First, the south European states have to invest a lot more money in education and aim to produce better-quality goods. At the same time, they also have to lower wages in some industries to keep up with the competition from emerging economies like China, India or Brazil.SPIEGEL: Do you think the euro zone will have the same members in 2015 as it does now?Rogoff: It may well be the case that all current members remain in the euro zone, and that Germany keeps on shouldering the ever-increasing debts of other countries. But the price of such a scenario is very high for all involved: southern Europe would become embroiled in permanent stagnation and the German economy would eventually be dragged down to a slower growth trajectory.Interview conducted by Sven Böll and Michael SaugaURL: http://www.spiegel.de/international/business/0,1518,816071,00.html
Desde Londres,Grecia y sus ciudadanos son meros daños colaterales
Mientras tanto, el tito Putin compra juguetes nuevos para el Gran Juegohttp://www.abc.es/20120221/internacional/abcp-putin-reaviva-guerra-fria-20120221.html
Cita de: tomasjos en Febrero 21, 2012, 10:10:29 amMientras tanto, el tito Putin compra juguetes nuevos para el Gran Juegohttp://www.abc.es/20120221/internacional/abcp-putin-reaviva-guerra-fria-20120221.html¿Dices que compra? Yo más bien he entendido que aparte de las consideraciones geoestratégicas que le impulsen a ese rearme, no se trata de comprar nada, sino de implementar algo similar a políticas keynesianas de impulso de la demanda a través del uso de sus propios recursos.
El exdirector gerente del Fondo Monetario Internacional (FMI) Dominique Strauss-Kahn está siendo interrogado en el marco de la investigación policial sobre una presunta red de prostitución en Lille, en el norte de Francia, según ha informado una fuente de la Policía. El exdirector del FMI, que ha sido citado para declarar en la mañana de este martes, permanecerá bajo custodia y podrá ser interrogado durante un máximo de 48 horas. Strauss-Kahn dejó su cargo al frente del FMI el pasado mes de mayo cuando fue acusado en Nueva York de abuso sexual e intento de violación por Nafissatou Diallo, una empleada del hotel en el que estaba alojado, si bien finalmente los cargos en su contra fueron desestimados. Al volver de Nueva York tuvo que prestar declaración en otra investigación por la denuncia presentada en su contra por la periodista y escritora Tristane Banon, quien también le acusaba de intento de violación. Tres días después de que la Policía francesa diera por concluida esta investigación, el 13 de octubre, su nombre volvió a surgir en el caso de la red de prostitución de Lille. En el caso de la red de prostitución se investiga una organización que presuntamente enviaba mujeres a los clientes de un hotel de lujo de la ciudad de Carlton. Hay varios detenidos hasta el momento, entre los que se encuentran empresarios locales y un comisario de Policía. Una constructora francesa, Eiffage, despidió a un ejecutivo porque se sospechaba que había utilizado fondos de la compañía para contratar a prostitutas, que presuntamente participaron en fiestas sexuales con Strauss-Kahn en París y Washington. Según el abogado de Strauss-Khan, Henri Leclerc, su defendido ha alegado que creía que estaba participando en fiestas subidas de tono y que no tenía ninguna razón para sospechar que las mujeres eran prostitutas.
Entrevista muy interesante a Ken Rogoff en "Der Spiegel":CitarSPIEGEL ONLINE02/20/2012 04:18 PMUS Economist Kenneth Rogoff'Germany Has Been the Winner in the Globalization Process'In an interview with SPIEGEL, Harvard economist Kenneth Rogoff, 58, says it was a mistake to bring all the southern European countries into the common currency. He also argues that Greece should be granted a "sabbatical" from the euro and that a United States of Europe may take shape far sooner than many believe.Básicamente, dice que se puede formar una Europa unida más pronto de lo que mucha gente piensa, y que para ello un paso muy conveniente sería permitir a Grecia dejar el euro temporalmente.Sobre España, dice que nuestro problema no es Alemania, sino China. Y que la única solución a medio plazo es educación (para mejorar la calidad de nuestra producción) y deflación interna (para reducir precios).http://www.spiegel.de/international/business/0,1518,816071,00.html
SPIEGEL ONLINE02/20/2012 04:18 PMUS Economist Kenneth Rogoff'Germany Has Been the Winner in the Globalization Process'In an interview with SPIEGEL, Harvard economist Kenneth Rogoff, 58, says it was a mistake to bring all the southern European countries into the common currency. He also argues that Greece should be granted a "sabbatical" from the euro and that a United States of Europe may take shape far sooner than many believe.
Interesantísimo artículo de J.Jacks:http://www.cotizalia.com/opinion/desde-londres/2012/02/21/grecia-y-sus-ciudadanos-son-meros-danos-colaterales-6671/CitarDesde Londres,Grecia y sus ciudadanos son meros daños colateralesMejor léanlo en el enlace, dónde tiene multitud de otros enlaces a sus fuentes. En resumen: lo de Grecia es ante todo un campo de experimentación político-social, usado con la excusa de la crisis económica.
Cita de: Currobena en Febrero 20, 2012, 17:58:42 pmEntrevista muy interesante a Ken Rogoff en "Der Spiegel":CitarSPIEGEL ONLINE02/20/2012 04:18 PMUS Economist Kenneth Rogoff'Germany Has Been the Winner in the Globalization Process'In an interview with SPIEGEL, Harvard economist Kenneth Rogoff, 58, says it was a mistake to bring all the southern European countries into the common currency. He also argues that Greece should be granted a "sabbatical" from the euro and that a United States of Europe may take shape far sooner than many believe.Básicamente, dice que se puede formar una Europa unida más pronto de lo que mucha gente piensa, y que para ello un paso muy conveniente sería permitir a Grecia dejar el euro temporalmente.Sobre España, dice que nuestro problema no es Alemania, sino China. Y que la única solución a medio plazo es educación (para mejorar la calidad de nuestra producción) y deflación interna (para reducir precios).http://www.spiegel.de/international/business/0,1518,816071,00.htmlBásicamente el Sr. Rogoff es un hdp, más bien. Su receta para Grecia se resume en un lacónico "Once the country had achieved", pero lo que este hdp calla es lo que le pasa al país hasta llegar a ese "once". Además miente como un bellaco, la salida de Grecia del euro sin salir de Europa es el pistoletazo de salida para que sus amigos se ceben en las demás economías. Este, insisto, hdp lo que está es ansioso por pasar al siguiente plato. Ignora deliberadamente que en ese proceso Grecia se tercermundiza. Por cierto, he mirado su biografía en wikipedia y es un maestro del ajedrez de reconocimiento internacional, lo que quiere decir que este, insisto, hdp, está demasiado acostumbrado a sacrificar peones por lo que parece. No quiero recetas de esta gentuza para solucionar el euro mientras siguen asediando el euro desde su país. O al menos no confío en la intención de esas recetas. Sobre todo cuando consisten en sacrificar países. El próximo en el tablero puede ser nuestro país.
Mientras tanto, el tito Putin compra juguetes nuevos para el Gran Juegohttp://www.abc.es/20120221/internacional/abcp-putin-reaviva-guerra-fria-20120221.html(...)
Cita de: tomasjos en Febrero 21, 2012, 10:10:29 amMientras tanto, el tito Putin compra juguetes nuevos para el Gran Juegohttp://www.abc.es/20120221/internacional/abcp-putin-reaviva-guerra-fria-20120221.html(...)Como intento pase, pero ¿alguien le ha explicado a este señor que para montar un complejo militar-industrial tienes que tener primero una cosa llamada dólar (solo puede quedar uno y tal)? ¿no ha aprendido del pasado de su país y como se hundió la URSS entre otras cosas por el gasto insostenible de una carrera armamentística que no se podían permitir? Cabe otra opción ¿acaso pretende que el rublo sea el nuevo dólar? ¿y en Pekín que opinan de todo esto? Insisto, solo puede quedar uno para ocupar el puesto del petrodólar en todo caso...@Starkiller: no sé hasta que punto es una reacción veraz o un simple teatrillo. Su reacción no sé si es de cara a la autoprotección o a mantener una pantomima interna de protección e intentar montar el tenderete de venta de armas a todos los enemigos del viejo enemigo y bla bla... Pero aún así no les veo del todo.