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El gráfico que revela el impacto real del colapso del turismo en España respecto a otros países*El turismo se había convertido en la 'exportación' más importante para España*La sequía de turistas extranjeros puede tener un impacto del 5% del PIB*En países como Italia o Francia, el turismo juega un papel muy inferior(...) El peso del turismo en el PIB español supera el 12%, no obstante ahí se recoge incluso tanto al turista nacional como al extranjero.
Some Manhattan Landlords Offer New Tenants Free Rent Through 2020 Amid Glut Of Empty ApartmentsManhattan renters have gained the upper hand over landlords, who are desperately trying to lure tenants with financial incentives amid an unusually high vacancy rate caused by an exodus of New York City residents during the coronavirus pandemic.KEY FACTSManhattan’s vacancy rate topped 5% for the first time in over a decade this August, according to CNN, with 24% fewer leases signed than in 2019.In order to fill the massive amount of empty apartments, many landlords have been publicly offering huge incentives to new renters, including up to three months of rent free, Bloomberg reported.“Tenants are filling out four to five applications at the same time and negotiating one offer against the other,” Gary Malin, chief operating officer of brokerage Corcoran Group, which represents landlords, told Bloomberg.Nancy Wu, an economist at StreetEasy, told the New York Times the shakeup in the New York City’s rental market will continue “as long as Covid lasts,” adding “the biggest impacts on the economy are yet to come.”BIG NUMBER15,025. That's how many empty apartments there were in Manhattan in August according to a report from Miller Samuel Inc. Real Estate Consultants, a 14-year high. KEY BACKGROUNDNew York City was arguably ground-zero when the coronavirus landed in the U.S. earlier this year. The outbreak devastated the city’s economy, and state-wide protection measures closed down a slew of businesses, bringing the city’s unemployment rate up to 16%, double the national average. With many people working from home, and restaurants and cultural institutions slow to reopen, a large number of would-be renters have decided to pack up and move back in with their parents, or to the suburbs and rural areas where they can get more space for their dollar.
Sassoli on budget negotiations: Parliament is not obstructing anythingDavid Sassoli told EU leaders Parliament is not obstructing anything in the budget negotiations, but is protecting the interests of European citizens.The President of the European Parliament spoke at the start of a special EU summit on 1-2 October. In his speech, he stressed the need for a Europe that meets the expectations of Europeans.“We are starting out on a path to creating a different, more responsive, more inclusive and fairer Europe, one which delivers tangible benefits to our citizens. It is incumbent on us to stay the course and not waver,” President Sassoli told EU leaders.He mentioned the need for actively working to restore the single market in the wake of the coronavirus crisis, rebuilding the economy and creating jobs, as well as addressing social and economic inequalities and meeting the needs of those who have suffered most.As one of the causes of widening inequality, he mentioned lack of internet access: “In the world which is now taking shape, access to the internet should be seen as a new human right,” he said. “The challenge the EU faces is to be a pioneer and to lead by example in the democratisation of the digital world.”He also called out EU leaders for “unacceptable delays in decision-making” when it comes to migration. He described the Commission’s pact on migration and asylum presented on 23 September as “a step forward” and stressed that Parliament is open to negotiations with the Council and German presidency on the matter.On the ongoing long-term budget negotiations, the President stated the need for proposals on the table, because “for the moment, the proposals under discussion are those put forward by Parliament”.“I want to be very clear, because some aspersions being cast are entirely unacceptable: Parliament is not obstructing anything. Our demands are in the interests of European citizens. The delays are due to a lack of counter-proposals from the Council,” he said. He called on the German presidency to make constructive proposals on three main issues: guaranteeing the funding of strategic programmes, ensuring that the cost of the recovery plan is met by new EU revenue sources, and not by citizens, and incorporating an effective conditionality mechanism linked to respect for the rule of law.President Sassoli expressed support for those in Belarus fighting for democracy and called for immediate sanctions from the EU against perpetrators of electoral fraud, violence and repression.Commenting on tensions in the Eastern Mediterranean, Parliament’s President said: “We are unwavering in our resolve to show solidarity with Greece and Cyprus”. He called for dialogue with Turkey that can lead to a lasting settlement of the conflict.Mr Sassoli underlined the need for a quick start of a Conference on the Future of Europe in Strasbourg. “Our citizens deserve an EU which has the courage of its convictions and is ideally placed to tackle the challenges ahead, and which does not rely solely on outdated methods,” he concluded.
The house party returnsBooming house prices spell more trouble for the social contractLow interest rates and changing preferences explain housing’s strength during the pandemicStockmarkets have not had a good September, but their strength for the year as a whole remains a source of wonderment. Less noticed has been the equally remarkable buoyancy of another asset class: housing. Many rich countries are seeing house prices surge even as their rate of infections is rising for a second time. In the second quarter, although economies were under lockdown, house prices rose in eight out of ten high- and middle-income countries. According to unofficial series—which are timelier though less accurate than government data—America’s house prices are up 5% on a year ago. Germany’s are 11% higher. Britain’s hit an all-time high, in nominal terms, in August. The boom shares some causes with the strength of stockmarkets, but reveals more about the pandemic’s effect on economies. It is also more consequential.Like stocks, house prices are being supported by loose monetary policy. In the past year the rate at which Americans can obtain 30-year fixed-rate mortgages has fallen by roughly a quarter, to about 2.9%. As well as making monthly mortgage payments more affordable, low rates make houses more attractive, because they depress the returns on alternative safe investments. Other economic policies are also helping. Mass government support for household incomes, as well as mortgage-repayment holidays, have saved jobless workers from having to sell their homes, as they otherwise might. Britain has temporarily suspended stamp duty, a tax on buying houses.The house-price boom is not just a result of policy, however. Structural forces are at work, too (see article). Job losses this year have been concentrated among low-paid service-sector workers, who are more likely to rent than buy. Professionals who have carried on working from home but cut back on their spending have accumulated cash to splash—and, with time spent at home rising, what better moment to buy a bigger pad? The unequal effects of the pandemic have allowed prices to surge even as banks have curtailed their riskiest loans. In America the share of lending going to the most creditworthy borrowers has been growing. In Britain the boom seems to be being driven by a bidding war among existing homeowners, rather than by first-time buyers who, because they are younger, are more exposed to the economic downturn.Housing is a bigger asset class than equities and its ownership is more dispersed. Booming stockmarkets lead to grumbles about the growing riches of billionaires. Pricey houses make life tangibly harder for swathes of would-be homebuyers who struggle to raise the minimum down-payment necessary to get a mortgage and join the club that can benefit from low rates. The problem is most acute in countries that see home ownership as a rite of passage. In such places high prices drive young people towards leftist populists and threaten the social contract. It is reasonable to hope that the trend towards working from home will help ease the housing shortages around the most vibrant cities, which have been most economically damaging. Yet so far this is not apparent in prices.Perhaps the boom will cool as government support for the economy falls. However, the effect of the pandemic on long-term interest rates is unlikely to change; nor is the desire for roomier homes. Higher house prices could turn out to be an enduring legacy of covid-19. If so, in the 2020s they will deepen the intergenerational tensions that were already emerging in the 2010s. The fact that the economic costs of fighting the disease are mostly being borne by the young mostly to protect the lives of the elderly makes the problem knottier still.In the 2010s politicians failed to get to grips with high house prices. They often responded to them by further subsidising home-buying. They should indeed cut stamp duty, which distorts the market, as much as possible. But it is futile to fight long-term price rises caused by low rates and shifts in households’ preferences. Rather, governments should cease to indulge national obsessions with owning property.That means creating a well-regulated rental sector which offers security of tenancy, removing subsidies for owner-occupation and easing planning restrictions to the point where housing no longer looks like a magic money tree accessible only to those fortunate enough to start out with pots of cash. Taxes on property values—and ideally on land values—should also rise. Such levies are an efficient way of plugging budget shortfalls. They would also recoup some of the windfall gains that lucky homeowners have enjoyed.To the extent that robust house-price growth represents confidence in the prospects for an economic recovery, it is welcome. But in no other context would the contrast between asset prices and the present condition of labour markets cause as much discomfort for those who are missing the party. ■
Los 'señores del ladrillo' copan la lista de morosos 12 años después del crack inmobiliario https://www.vozpopuli.com/economia-y-finanzas/morosos-inmobiliario-ladrillo_0_1396661734.htmlEl estallido de la burbuja inmobiliaria en España, entre 2007 y 2008, fue de tal tamaño que 12 años después grandes compañías que entonces lideraban el sector siguen a día de hoy debiendo cientos de millones de euros a HaciendaCitarLos empresarios que a principios de este siglo brillaron en el sector inmobiliario español, y que, a partir de 2007, protagonizaron y asistieron al estallido de la burbuja inmobiliaria, los conocidos como 'los señores del ladrillo', son en la actualidad los españoles que más deben a Hacienda. Rafael Santamaría, expresidente de Reyal Urbis; Francisco Hernando (El Pocero, fallecido este año); la familia Nozaleda, al frente de Nozar; la familia Romero González, del Grupo Prasa; la familia Sanahuja... fueron algunos de esos 'señores del ladrillo' que hoy copan la lista de los mayores morosos de Hacienda, que fue hecha pública este miércoles.Reyal Urbis, la inmobiliaria que generó la segunda mayor quiebra ocurrida en la historia empresarial española, con cerca de 4.500 millones de euros de deuda, lidera el ranking de las empresas del sector que más deben, 343 millones de euros.Lista de morosos de Hacienda 2020https://elpais.com/especiales/2020/lista-morosos-hacienda/?kkSe ve que parte de los beneficios que declaraban venian de no pagar a hacienda. Se me ha ocurrido pasar la lista a una excel, y me encuentro con que 3.930 empresas deben al fiscco 14.550.353.216,69 euros. Estas son las que deben más de 20 millones de euros:(¿Que hacen los inspectores de hacienda que no son capaces de recaudar ese dinero?)A28238988 REYAL URBIS SA 343.530.794,21A84173947 GRUPO ISOLUX CORSAN SA 329.646.112,30B74156423 RECUPERACIONES E INVERSIONES DEL OCCIDENTE SL 308.236.499,00A28707032 NOZAR SA 215.111.374,70A29403052 AIFOS ARQUITECTURA Y PROMOC INMOBILIARIAS SA 98.974.493,27A14027635 GRUPO PRA SA 97.707.929,22B28627743 SERVICIOS ESQUERDO SL 97.364.670,65A78210473 CCF 21 NEGOCIOS INMOBILIARIOS SA 92.804.700,34B14644884 GRUPO INVERSOR ARENAL 2000 SL 92.061.582,98882084286 OBRAS NUEVAS DE EDIFICACION 2000 SL 86.379.904,27G47337118 ORGANIZACION IMPULSORA DE DISCAPACITADOS (O I D) 86.190.068,61B82211285 BITANGO PROMOCIONES SL 79.624.264,20B14452874 ARENAL 2001 71.926.019,78B14439988 ARENAL 2000 SL 64.934.688,58B84361591 NATICA CLASSIC SL 60.023.349,62A85720357 GRUPO ISOLUX CORSAN CONCESIONES SA 54.042.238,11B31727720 ANCA CORPORATE SL 50.472.528,05B43716216 PROSERVICE TGNA, SL 49.420.444,49A11053063 PROMAGASA 43.686.014,36B53410221 RESIDENCIAL MIRA LLEVANT SL 41.879.913,20B09348434 GRUPO PANTERSA SL 40.565.819,78B81024820 AYURADES SL 40.533.377,29A47017157 DISEÑOS URBANOS SA 40.051.535,18A82487455 ACCESOS DE MADRID, CONCESIONARIA ESPAÑOLA SA 38.513.763,04B29622503 PROMOTORES Y CONSULTORES ZIUR SL 37.715.758,61828115178 NORIEGASL 37.108.859,75A13358668 VIVIENDA Y BIENESTAR SA 36.839.183,11A78236569 MONTUMO SA 36.401.502,27A78626272 PROMOCIONES GUADALQUIVIR SA 36.123.232,98Y3023620P DA SILVA SANTOS JUNIOR NEYMAR 34.624.268,60A81262404 OMBUDS COMPAÑIA DE SEGURIDAD SA 34.463.441,56B46298998 PYQ VENT DEL MARESME SL 34.408.862,94A24000960 HULLERA VASCO LEONESA SA 34.261.011,07A64746811 CORE INVESTMENTS SA 33.295.003,28A29181005 SUN FARM SA 32.041.876,52B28198729 RIVOIRE Y CARRET ESPAÑOLA SL 31.928.151,85B57302002 DRACPLUS SL 31.913.662,23B92222421 EVE MARINA SL 30.884.123,94A12455804 BELQUEBA SA 30.663.580,32B96295068 PRODAEMI SL 30.554.030,62A41002312 ABENCOR SUMINISTROS SA 29.494.759,11B08544967 CAMPAMAR SL 29.436.162,16A78793197 URBESPAIN SA 28.640.848,59A78605425 PROMOCIONES INMOBILIARIAS DEL PISUERGA SA 28.581.039,90A79853453 ENYPESA SA 28.579.316,83A60785888 COPERFIL OBRAS Y SERVICIOS SA 28.455.822,64B04159836 PREDIOS DEL SURESTE SL 27.334.125,59A80163587 MARTINSA-FADESA SA 27.010.568,04A83949297 GLOBALMET SA 27.000.637,94B82377540 VALLE DEL DUERO SL 26.565.508,90899025413 NYESA VIVIENDAS ZARAGOZA SL 26.213.198,33B29815487 FINK 2010, SL 26.144.380,28B63694236 MOLS PRODUCTES BADALONA SL 25.649.481,48B74110461 CONSTRUCCIONES LOGISTICAS Y AMBIENTALES DEL NORTE SL 25.150.264,35A29017274 EUROPA CENTER SA 25.114.626,45891670307 BANZAGRA HABITAT SL 24.878.974,21B87560025 SONOIL OPERADORA SL 24.877.240,45B14024517 COMPAÑIA MERIDIONAL DE INVERSIONES SL 24.059.443,74B73139594 POLARIS WORLD DEVELOPMENT SL 23.450.449,89A78517158 LABARO GRUPO INMOBILIARIO SA 23.397.132,96B92310606 HOTELES MANILVA SL 23.383.842,36B45356292 EXPANSION Y DESARROLLO CONTINENTEX SL 23.364.478,37A78471752 DESARROLLO DE ACTIVOS INMOBILIARIOS SA 22.618.025,27A82335746 SEGUR IBERICA SA 22.564.601,20B32260820 COMPAÑIA GALLEGA DE LICORES SL 22.114.969,65A82193327 TERSICIA SA 22.053.618,20B15702285 ACERIAS AS PONTES SL 21.550.974,88A14682314 HIVERNIA SA 21.529.769,16A78035987 DESGUACES LA TORRE SA 21.395.432,32B90234311 VENTA DE CARBURANTES DEL SUR 21.215.746,11B81760910 SELEY INFORMATICA SL 20.959.266,59A84405356 DESARROLLOS URBANISTICOS RIBARROJA S.A 20.929.354,33A41016262 CONSTRUCCIONES AZAGRA SA 20.623.847,56B85580538 1-TEK INVERSIONES Y SISTEMAS SL 20.266.720,87A78552627 INMOBILIARIA CHAMARTIN SA 20.008.136,12No estaria mal que los de hacienda añadieran a la lista a que actividad está registrada cada empresa; nos facilitaría el trabajo (creo recordar que el Grupo Isolux, que está de los primeros de la lista, tambien quebró por meterse a jugar con promociones inmobiliarias)Por último indicar que estos primeros 75 de la lista, ellos solitos ya deben 3.960.875.476,86, de las cuales, una parte significativa son empresas relacionadas con la vivienda.
Los empresarios que a principios de este siglo brillaron en el sector inmobiliario español, y que, a partir de 2007, protagonizaron y asistieron al estallido de la burbuja inmobiliaria, los conocidos como 'los señores del ladrillo', son en la actualidad los españoles que más deben a Hacienda. Rafael Santamaría, expresidente de Reyal Urbis; Francisco Hernando (El Pocero, fallecido este año); la familia Nozaleda, al frente de Nozar; la familia Romero González, del Grupo Prasa; la familia Sanahuja... fueron algunos de esos 'señores del ladrillo' que hoy copan la lista de los mayores morosos de Hacienda, que fue hecha pública este miércoles.Reyal Urbis, la inmobiliaria que generó la segunda mayor quiebra ocurrida en la historia empresarial española, con cerca de 4.500 millones de euros de deuda, lidera el ranking de las empresas del sector que más deben, 343 millones de euros.
El presidente de EEUU, Donald Trump, y su mujer, Melania, positivo en coronavirus
Los futuros de Wall Street bajan más de un 1,5% y arrastran a los europeos tras conocerse el contagio de Trump
Los jóvenes madrileños deben destinar un 105% del sueldo para pagar un alquiler medioEntre los 30 y los 34 años aumenta el número de personas jóvenes que se trasladan a vivir fuera de la comunidadLos jóvenes madrileños deberían destinar el 105% de su sueldo para cubrir el alquiler medio en la región, de 1.176 euros; lo que incide en que solo un 20,5% de ellos se haya emancipado.
https://www.elconfidencial.com/mundo/2020-10-02/trump-anuncia-que-se-pone-en-cuarentena-tras-el-positivo-de-una-asesora-cercana_2772016/CitarEl presidente de EEUU, Donald Trump, y su mujer, Melania, positivo en coronavirus
S&P495 negative for the year
Top election issue?Which one of the following issues is most important to you?
Small businesses have been destroyed in S.F.Small businesses in S.F have be obliterated. There is a (the real) world outside of Silicon Valley start-ups.
Nord Stream 2 Nears Completion After Clearing Another HurdleAuthored by Tsvetana Paraskova via OilPrice.com,Denmark cleared on Thursday the final hurdle to Nord Stream 2 potentially starting operations in Danish waters, while the U.S. continues its attempt to stop the Russia-led natural gas pipeline project.On Thursday, the Danish Energy Agency said it had granted Nord Stream 2 AG, the company behind the project, an operations permit for the Nord Stream 2 pipelines on the Danish continental shelf, on a number of conditions. Citar“Commissioning can only take place when at least one of the pipelines has been tested, verified and when relevant conditions in the construction permit and the operations permit have been met,’’ the Danish agency said.Meanwhile, U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said an interview with a German daily last week that the U.S. was building a coalition aimed at preventing the completion of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline that will substantially increase the flow of Russian gas into Europe.Citar“From the US point of view, Nord Stream 2 endangers Europe because it makes it dependent on Russian gas and endangers Ukraine – which in my opinion worries many Germans,” Pompeo told German daily Bild.Germany, the endpoint of Nord Stream 2, has been looking at the economic benefits of the project, while the United States, including President Donald Trump, has been threatening sanctions on the project and even on Germany over its support for the project.The United States, several European countries including the Baltic states and Poland, as well as the European Union (EU), have expressed concern about Russia using gas sales and its gas monopoly Gazprom as a political tool.The United States views Nord Stream 2 as further undermining Europe’s energy security by giving Gazprom another pipeline to ship its natural gas to European markets.In July, the United States warned companies helping Russia to complete Nord Stream 2 that they should ‘get out now’ or face consequences, as the Trump administration steps up efforts to stop the construction of the controversial Russia-led pipeline in Europe.In recent weeks, German Chancellor Angela Merkel has come under pressure from some of her coalition partners to drop the German support for Nord Stream 2 after the poisoning of Russian opposition leader and Putin critic, Alexey Navalny.Via Zerohedge
“Commissioning can only take place when at least one of the pipelines has been tested, verified and when relevant conditions in the construction permit and the operations permit have been met,’’ the Danish agency said.
“From the US point of view, Nord Stream 2 endangers Europe because it makes it dependent on Russian gas and endangers Ukraine – which in my opinion worries many Germans,” Pompeo told German daily Bild.
El Tesoro mantiene su previsión de emisiones pese al deterioro económicoConfía en que los fondos del SURE eviten un alza de las colocaciones. Renuncia a la emisión sindicada que se esperaba tras el verano(...)Pero ese agravamiento en las perspectivas económicas no supondría un aumento sobre el endeudamiento neto ya previsto para el año. “El Tesoro está tranquilo. Hicieron una previsión muy prudente y confían en contar este año con los recursos del SURE”, señalan fuentes de mercado próximas al organismo. En su planificación de las necesidades de financiación del año el Tesoro ya incluyó 15.000 millones de euros del fondo europeo de ayuda al desempleo que, de no obtener este ejercicio, se cubrirían en cualquier caso recurriendo al mercado.Este fondo ha asignado a España 21.300 millones de euros, que se recibirán entre el último trimestre de este año y el primero de 2021. “El Tesoro español tiene un colchón importante con el SURE pero si no hay una primera emisión antes del 20 de octubre, tendrá que recurrir a una emisión sindicada o a subastas ordinarias de más volumen”, señala uno de los creadores de mercado de la institución. Esa primera emisión de deuda que realizará la Comisión Europea para financiar el programa SURE debe aún superar trámites burocráticos para su lanzamiento, si bien una vez realizada, el ingreso es directo para los países receptores.El Tesoro ha renunciado a realizar una nueva emisión sindicada en septiembre. “Nos ha sorprendido, ha habido un par de ventanas que no ha aprovechado”, añaden desde un banco de inversión, donde también advierten de la dificultad que supone realizar una colocación sindicada cerca de finales de año y demasiado próxima por tanto a la que suele ser habitual en enero.“El Tesoro público prevé unas emisiones de deuda consistentes con unas previsiones de déficit de en torno al 12% del PIB. Se ve que están siendo prudentes”, dice María Jesús Fernández, economista senior de Funcas, que no prevé un endeudamiento neto más allá de los 130.000 millones ya anunciados. “130.000 millones de emisión neta ya es mucho, no creo que se ajuste al alza”, añade José Manuel Amor, experto de AFI. En BBVA Research sí prevén en cambio un aumento de la necesidad de financiación entre 25.000 y 30.000 millones sobre lo previsto. Y el incremento de la emisión de deuda dependerá de si España puede disponer o no este año de los fondos del SURE.(...)Sostenibilidad. ”Si no se corrige el déficit estructural, la deuda española entrará en una senda de insostenibilidad. Es imprescindible que, antes del fin de las compras masivas de deuda del BCE, España presente un plan convincente de reducción del déficit estructural”, añaden en Funcas.