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El Gobierno promete a la UE crear 15 empleos por cada millón en ayudasDefiende que su plan adelantará la recuperación a “inicios de 2022”. Elevará un 15% las inversiones en 2021 tras su retroceso del 18% este añoAdemás de para comunicar su estrategia económica y fiscal de cara a 2021, el Gobierno se ha servido del plan presupuestario remitido este jueves a Bruselas para preparar el terreno en la pugna por conseguir hasta el último euro de las subvenciones económicas que la Unión Europea concederá para paliar los efectos de la crisis del Covid-19. El Ejecutivo, que aspira a recibir unos 72.000 millones de euros en transferencias comunitarias entre 2021 y 2023 para impulsar su Plan de Recuperación, Transformación y Resiliencia de la Economía Española, asegura a la Comisión Europea que el país será capaz de crear “unos 15 empleos por cada millón de euros invertido” de las ayudas europeas.Aunque el texto no lo detalle, el cálculo está realizado tomando como referencia los 59.168 millones de euros que aspira a recibir del Mecanismo de Recuperación y Resiliencia (MRR), pues plantea que la inversión permitirá generar “880.000 puestos de trabajo” en los próximos tres años, 80.000 más de los que anunció el presidente del Gobierno, Pedro Sánchez, al presentar la estrategia de recuperación para el país hace unos días.El Gobierno estima además que con cada euro comunitario se inyectarán 1,2 euros a la economía española, y se acelerará la recuperación de los niveles precrisis a “inicios de 2022”. Para ello, cuenta con incrementar un 15% la inversión pública en 2021, tras un retroceso del 18,3% en la formación bruta de capital fijo en 2020.En paralelo, el Ejecutivo cuenta con ingresar otros 12.436 millones de euros del programa React-EU, otra de las patas del nuevo Fondo de Recuperación Next Generation EU, si bien ya ha avanzado que el destino de estos recursos no será el impulso de la economía y la generación de empleo, sino que dedicará 10.000 millones a prestar apoyo a las comunidades autónomas en el ámbito sanitario y educativo, y dejará los 2.436 millones restantes en manos del Ministerio de Sanidad para el refuerzo de la atención primaria y la adquisición de vacunas contra el virus. (...)
Londres congela de modo unilateral la siguiente ronda negociadora del BrexitEl representante británico, David Frost, pide a su homólogo comunitario, Michel Barnier, que no acuda a la capital británica la semana que vienehttps://elpais.com/internacional/2020-10-17/londres-cancela-de-modo-unilateral-la-siguiente-ronda-negociadora-del-brexit.htmlEsto ya sí es un or dago, sea cual fuere Londres ha sacado el as que tenía escondido en la manga. No vengas si no es para ceder...Sólo falta ver que otro as tiene la UE, también escondido en la manga. La cita era mañana lunes, así que no tardaremos en saberlo.
Cita de: sudden and sharp en Octubre 18, 2020, 10:30:15 amLondres congela de modo unilateral la siguiente ronda negociadora del BrexitEl representante británico, David Frost, pide a su homólogo comunitario, Michel Barnier, que no acuda a la capital británica la semana que vienehttps://elpais.com/internacional/2020-10-17/londres-cancela-de-modo-unilateral-la-siguiente-ronda-negociadora-del-brexit.htmlEsto ya sí es un or dago, sea cual fuere Londres ha sacado el as que tenía escondido en la manga. No vengas si no es para ceder...Sólo falta ver que otro as tiene la UE, también escondido en la manga. La cita era mañana lunes, así que no tardaremos en saberlo.Puede ser. O a lo mejor es parte del teatro. Otra teoría: La UE sabe que tiene que ceder algo (un acuerdo Brexit por el que UK de entrada no puede pescar en la mayor parte de sus aguas territoriales, ni subsidiar empresas nacionales con su propio dinero no puede firmarlo un primer ministro británico, y eso lo saben Barnier, Macron y Merkel). Brexit es recuperar ese poder negociador originario, aunque al dia siguiente se reconcedan las mismas licencias de pesca para cada pais...
The Key to the Productivity PuzzleAlthough the factors contributing to stagnant productivity are well known, economists and policymakers have so far paid little attention to figuring out how to address these problems in a coordinated way. But the need to deliver broad-based prosperity is more pressing than ever, and this shortcoming must be rectified without delay.CAMBRIDGE – In a 1996 lecture entitled “Big Bills Left on the Sidewalk,” the late Mancur Olson made a powerful observation: an individual from a poor country – say, Haiti – who migrates to a richer country like the United States immediately becomes vastly more productive and earns a far higher wage than before. The individual has not changed overnight, so their skills or cultural attitudes cannot explain their improved situation. The answer must instead lie in their new country’s environment.Olson therefore concluded that many (or most) economies are not socially efficient. A better institutional and social context, and higher stocks of assets from past investments, can make an enormous difference to individuals’ productivity, and hence to their living standards.The challenge, as Olson pointed out, is that individuals cannot change the overall context in which they live and work, except by moving elsewhere. The improvements needed to raise an entire economy’s productivity require coordinated, collective action. Olson’s own well-known research on the logic of collective action explored why this is so difficult to achieve.Unfortunately, Olson’s “big bills” insight about the need for coordination rarely features in the current productivity debate. Instead, the discussion – whether of why output per worker hour has been virtually flatlining in many OECD countries since the mid-2000s, or of which targeted policies might help to revitalize left-behind towns or regions – has focused on numerous potential contributory factors, rather than the need for coordinated action.For example, policymakers typically undertake cost-benefit appraisals of potential infrastructure investments on a project-by-project basis. But the returns to any project will be affected by other decisions, both private and public. If a new railway line opens, will local bus timetables change to coordinate people’s journeys? Will developers build houses nearby, and will other government agencies open schools in the area? Absent coordinated decision-making, investing in new projects where more of the other pieces are already in place will generally look like the better value-for-money option. Unfortunately, government agencies appraising projects are rarely tasked with conducting a holistic survey the policy landscape.Regional or local low-skills traps present a similar problem. If there are no high-paying jobs in a particular area, then individuals have no incentive to invest in their own education. And if the local pool of available skilled labor is small, employers have no incentive to open offices or factories there. The only option for people who want to move up is to move out.Such examples have now attained almost motherhood-and-apple-pie status among economic researchers, given the widespread acceptance that “institutions” are important for growth and development. But economists need to connect their analysis with an understanding of the political potential for change, the sociology of organizations, and the psychology of decision-making. Simply urging regions to “be more like Silicon Valley” is useless. The challenge for researchers and policymakers is to understand – in each specific context – exactly what coordination is needed to increase productivity, and what actions (and by whom) can achieve this.Vast inequalities between places, and therefore in people’s life chances, are a critical political issue almost everywhere, as election upsets and increasing polarization in recent years clearly indicate. Moreover, the COVID-19 pandemic, the likelihood of economic turmoil owing to extreme weather or civil conflict, the existential requirement of shifting to a zero-carbon economy, and widespread digital disruption will make delivering broad-based prosperity an even more pressing imperative.Although the obstacles to increased productivity are nearly universal, the solutions will be specific to each place and reflect its asset legacy, industrial history, location, and local politics. There is no science – yet – regarding what kinds of decisions need to be taken at different levels of government, or how to coordinate choices across departmental silos and budgets. (That is why these issues are central to the agenda of the United Kingdom’s recently established Productivity Institute.)Nobody would be surprised that the factors contributing to low or stagnant productivity include lack of investment in physical and intangible assets, skills shortages, inadequate infrastructure, poor management, and a weak macroeconomic environment. More surprising is the lack of attention paid so far to finding a recipe that addresses these problems in tandem. Economists and policymakers must begin to rectify this without delay.
El fin de la prohibición del despido mandará al paro a 200.000 personasEl Gobierno presume de bajada del paro con 730.000 personas en ERTEMás de 200.000 personas se quedarán sin trabajo en España a partir del 1 de noviembre. Los Expedientes de Regulación Temporal de Empleo (ERTE) incluían una cláusula que obligaba a los empresarios a mantener a los trabajadores en plantilla durante al menos seis meses, un plazo que vencerá a final de año para muchos de ellos.El Consejo General de Colegios de Gestores Administrativos de España ha alertado sobre esta situación, a la que se enfrentarán buena parte de los empleados que se acogieron a esta modalidad durante los primeros compases de la pandemia de coronavirus, cuando el país estaba bajo el estado de alarma."Prevemos que haya una gran cantidad de despidos en los próximos meses porque está empezando a decaer ese compromiso, abriéndose la veda", ha explicado el presidente del consejo, Fernando Santiago, a Europa Press.Se trata de la primera oleada de despidos que la crisis económica de la Covid-19 provocará en España. Un golpe al que también se sumarán todos los empleados que no hayan podido acogerse a los ERTE durante el segundo tramo del año por no pertenecer a alguno de los sectores vulnerables que ha establecido el Gobierno en la prórroga de los expedientes.Cerca de 150.000 autónomos perderán su empleo en 2020Los últimos meses del año también serán un escenario negro para los autónomos. Los Colegios de Gestores Administrativos vaticinan que cerca de 150.000 trabajadores por cuenta propia podrían perder su empleo en los últimos meses del año, como consecuencia de la crisis económica del coronavirus.La caída del empleo entre los autónomos provocará un efecto en cadena que pone en peligro el futuro de 300.000 negocios en toda España. "Por cada dos autónomos que caen, se destruye un puesto de trabajo", ha explicado Santiago.A este primer aluvión de despidos, le seguirán al menos dos nuevas olas de paro a lo largo de 2021. La primera será consecuencia de la apertura judicial de los concursos de acreedores de las empresas. La segunda, cuando venza el plazo para devolver el capital de los créditos ICO que se pusieron en marcha durante la pandemia.La hostelería será el sector más afectado por los despidosLa hostelería, el comercio y la restauración serán los tres sectores más afectados por los despidos masivos a partir de final de año. La crisis que atraviesa el turismo debido a las restricciones de viaje y a la falta de consumo ha marcado el futuro de estas actividades.Los abogados laboralistas vaticinan que si la crisis sanitaria de la Covid-19 continúa alargándose, muchas empresas se verán obligadas a echar la persiana y transformar los ERTE en expedientes de extinción de manera definitiva."Muchas empresas están muy pendientes de los compromisos de empleo para ver cuándo pueden deshacer los ERTE. Con todos los compromisos de empleo es difícil prever cuándo vendrán los ERE", ha señalado Raquel Muñiz, socia del despacho de abogados Sagardoy.
El drama de los autónomos: más de ciento veinticinco mil no van a poder devolver los créditos ICOSupone un 15% del total de solicitantes, según un estudio interno de ATA, que concluye también que alrededor de 300.000 negocios van a cerrar este 2020
IMF chief says 'much more decisive' action needed to deal with debt problemsWASHINGTON (Reuters) - The head of the International Monetary Fund on Sunday called for significant steps to address the increasingly unsustainable debt burdens of some countries, urging creditors and debtors to start restructuring processes sooner rather than later.IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva told an online event hosted by the G30 group of former policymakers and academics that a six-month extension of a freeze in official bilateral payments agreed by the Group of 20 major economies last week would help, but said more urgent action was needed.“We are buying some time, but we have to face reality that there are much more decisive actions ahead of us,” she said, urging creditors and debtors to start restructuring debts of countries with unsustainable debt levels without delay.
Cita de: Yupi_Punto en Octubre 14, 2020, 00:35:09 amCita de: breades en Octubre 13, 2020, 14:00:19 pmSi el Estado de partidos español no es un Estado fallido ¿Por qué es el supra-Estado que forma la UE el que lleva la voz cantante y a la clase dirigente española no le queda otra que poner el cazo? ¿En qué situación estaríamos sin nuestros socios uropedos?Y ojo, si hablamos de Estado fallido hablamos de la estructura político-jurídica organizada y planificada por la nación para operar como su personalidad jurídica, no de la nación en sí y de sus conflictos ideológicos. El Estado español hace mucho tiempo que dejó de cumplir la función de un Estado canónico.Viva el Rey!¿Cuál de los dos?
Cita de: breades en Octubre 13, 2020, 14:00:19 pmSi el Estado de partidos español no es un Estado fallido ¿Por qué es el supra-Estado que forma la UE el que lleva la voz cantante y a la clase dirigente española no le queda otra que poner el cazo? ¿En qué situación estaríamos sin nuestros socios uropedos?Y ojo, si hablamos de Estado fallido hablamos de la estructura político-jurídica organizada y planificada por la nación para operar como su personalidad jurídica, no de la nación en sí y de sus conflictos ideológicos. El Estado español hace mucho tiempo que dejó de cumplir la función de un Estado canónico.Viva el Rey!
Si el Estado de partidos español no es un Estado fallido ¿Por qué es el supra-Estado que forma la UE el que lleva la voz cantante y a la clase dirigente española no le queda otra que poner el cazo? ¿En qué situación estaríamos sin nuestros socios uropedos?Y ojo, si hablamos de Estado fallido hablamos de la estructura político-jurídica organizada y planificada por la nación para operar como su personalidad jurídica, no de la nación en sí y de sus conflictos ideológicos. El Estado español hace mucho tiempo que dejó de cumplir la función de un Estado canónico.
Time is running short to resolve the Brexit dramaTheatrics and brinkmanship have become a wearyingly familiar part of Brexit. Downing Street’s declaration on Friday that talks on a future trade accord were “over” appears a reprise of Boris Johnson’s tactics in exit talks a year ago: threaten no deal, use that as political cover to make concessions, then sell the final agreement as a triumph for toughness. The prime minister’s claim that the UK is ready to go it alone when the transition period ends in December is surely a bluff. Brussels knows that. The danger is that miscalculations blow up the talks despite both sides’ desire for a deal. That would be worse for the UK — but, on top of a resurgent pandemic, it would damage the EU too.Both parties share blame for the current impasse. Mr Johnson had raised the stakes by threatening to “move on” if there was no agreement by last Thursday’s EU summit. When, despite recent progress, a deal remained elusive, EU leaders called his bluff. But they fumbled the diplomatic footwork. The summit’s concluding statement implied all concessions must come from the UK. A pledge to intensify talks was removed — apparently to avoid the EU and its lead negotiator, Michel Barnier, appearing to be dancing too much to Mr Johnson’s tune.The UK premier has not made things easier by adopting a disingenuous narrative: that the EU is unwilling to grant Britain the “Canada-style” trade deal it seeks, and an “Australia-style” arrangement is acceptable. In reality, the UK wants an accord that goes beyond the Canadian model in key areas. Britain’s much closer proximity and higher trade volumes with the EU mean Brussels must take steps to ensure it does not become an unfair offshore competitor. The Australian model is in essence a euphemism for no deal. Unhappy with its current terms, Canberra is even now trying to negotiate an EU free trade agreement.A year ago, Mr Johnson may have calculated that risking an EU exit without a withdrawal agreement — with all the economic damage that would cause — was politically tenable given his pledge to “get Brexit done”. Today, coronavirus threatens hundreds of thousands of jobs. Despite the prime minister’s narrative, even many Brexit supporters will fail to understand why a trade deal the government once claimed would be the easiest in history could not be done.Mr Johnson struggles to explain why the arcana of state aid rules or the need to safeguard fisheries — 0.1 per cent of the economy — are sufficient to trigger a rift that would slap hefty EU tariffs on businesses from carmakers to livestock farmers. Tellingly, both pro-Brexit chancellor Rishi Sunak and cabinet office minister Michael Gove are privately pressing him to come to terms.Failure would be even more of a travesty since the bulk of an accord has already been agreed. A path to resolving remaining sticking points is emerging. After giving some ground on state aid — notably on the idea of an independent regulator — there is scope for the UK to move further and propose an adjudication mechanism for settling disputes. It could also provide cover for the EU to temper demands to preserve the status quo on access to British fishing waters. EU capitals will need to allow Mr Johnson some scope for face-saving. Even France’s tough-talking Emmanuel Macron on Friday hinted at room for compromise on fisheries.The need to persuade voters they are acting in their best interests means both the UK and EU have reason to hang tough in the talks. With a pandemic raging, however, time is running short for melodrama. The penultimate chapter of the Brexit saga has ended in suspense. Now both sides need to find a resolution in the final act.
Brexit negotiations expected to resume despite UK's tough rhetoricMichael Gove confirms British government’s door to re-engagement with Brussels is ‘ajar’
San Francisco Apartment Rents Crater Up To 31%, Most in USPosted by msmash on Friday October 16, 2020 @06:50PM from the how-about-that dept.San Francisco's sky-high apartment rents are falling fast. From a report:CitarThe median monthly rate for a studio in the city tumbled 31% in September from a year earlier to $2,285, compared with a 0.5% decline nationally, according to data released Tuesday by Realtor.com. One-bedroom rents in San Francisco fell 24% and two-bedrooms were down 21%, to $2,873 and $3,931 a month, respectively. The figures underscore how the pandemic has roiled property markets and changed renter preferences. With companies allowing employees to work from home, people have fled cramped and costly urban areas in droves, seeking extra room in the suburbs or cheaper cities. Tech firms, in particular, have told staff they should expect to work remotely well into next year -- and may be able to do so permanently. "Renters are likely heading to more-affordable areas where they can get more space at a cheaper price," Danielle Hale, Realtor.com's chief economist, said in a statement. "The future of rents in many of these cities will depend on whether companies require employees to work from the office or continue to allow remote work."
The median monthly rate for a studio in the city tumbled 31% in September from a year earlier to $2,285, compared with a 0.5% decline nationally, according to data released Tuesday by Realtor.com. One-bedroom rents in San Francisco fell 24% and two-bedrooms were down 21%, to $2,873 and $3,931 a month, respectively. The figures underscore how the pandemic has roiled property markets and changed renter preferences. With companies allowing employees to work from home, people have fled cramped and costly urban areas in droves, seeking extra room in the suburbs or cheaper cities. Tech firms, in particular, have told staff they should expect to work remotely well into next year -- and may be able to do so permanently. "Renters are likely heading to more-affordable areas where they can get more space at a cheaper price," Danielle Hale, Realtor.com's chief economist, said in a statement. "The future of rents in many of these cities will depend on whether companies require employees to work from the office or continue to allow remote work."
Make Remote Work Permanent? No Way, Say Bay Area LeadersPosted by EditorDavid on Saturday October 17, 2020 @07:34PM from the not-in-my-back-yard dept.Last month a regional government agency in the San Francisco Bay Area voted "to move forward" with a proposal to eventually require people at large, office-based companies to work from home three days a week "as a way to slash greenhouse gas emissions from car commutes," according to NBC News.But today local newspapers report "Bay Area leaders are already saying, no way." [Shorter, non-paywalled article here.]CitarThe Metropolitan Transportation Commission is drawing heavy fire from lawmakers, the business commmunity and transit supporters for a proposal that would require big companies to have their employees work from home at least 60 percent of the time by 2035.The proposal is aimed at reducing vehicle commuters and greenhouse gas emissions, but Bay Area politicians and business leaders say it would encourage Silicon Valley companies to pick up and leave. "This will spur a flight of large employers from the Bay Area," said San Jose Mayor Sam Liccardo, comparing the idea to paving lanes directly from Silicon Valley to Texas. After recovering from the pandemic-caused recession, Liccardo said, "we're going to miss those jobs." Liccardo and San Francisco Mayor London Breed this week urged MTC leaders to find a better solution to hit the region's long-term clean air goals...Rebecca Saltzman, a BART director, is introducing a resolution asking MTC to re-examine the requirement, which was added late in the process. It would drive down transit use with no clear proof it would reduce greenhouse gases, she said. "We know we would lose riders," she said. Bay Area lawmakers said a work-from-home mandate would hurt small businesses located around large employers, drain vitality from downtowns and diminish transit use. The requirements would also fall heavily on low-wage workers who typically must report to work to cook, clean, build or serve customers. San Jose and San Francisco both have tech giants — Google and Salesforce — spending billions of dollars to design and develop new campuses with a higher density of homes and apartments near transit. A work-from-home mandate could disrupt those plans, Liccardo said."I'm concerned about a parade of unintended consequences," he said. "This undermines the incentives to live near work."
The Metropolitan Transportation Commission is drawing heavy fire from lawmakers, the business commmunity and transit supporters for a proposal that would require big companies to have their employees work from home at least 60 percent of the time by 2035.The proposal is aimed at reducing vehicle commuters and greenhouse gas emissions, but Bay Area politicians and business leaders say it would encourage Silicon Valley companies to pick up and leave. "This will spur a flight of large employers from the Bay Area," said San Jose Mayor Sam Liccardo, comparing the idea to paving lanes directly from Silicon Valley to Texas. After recovering from the pandemic-caused recession, Liccardo said, "we're going to miss those jobs." Liccardo and San Francisco Mayor London Breed this week urged MTC leaders to find a better solution to hit the region's long-term clean air goals...Rebecca Saltzman, a BART director, is introducing a resolution asking MTC to re-examine the requirement, which was added late in the process. It would drive down transit use with no clear proof it would reduce greenhouse gases, she said. "We know we would lose riders," she said. Bay Area lawmakers said a work-from-home mandate would hurt small businesses located around large employers, drain vitality from downtowns and diminish transit use. The requirements would also fall heavily on low-wage workers who typically must report to work to cook, clean, build or serve customers. San Jose and San Francisco both have tech giants — Google and Salesforce — spending billions of dollars to design and develop new campuses with a higher density of homes and apartments near transit. A work-from-home mandate could disrupt those plans, Liccardo said."I'm concerned about a parade of unintended consequences," he said. "This undermines the incentives to live near work."