PPCC: Pisitófilos Creditófagos. Invierno 2020/2021

[sudden and sharp]

Que tengáis unas muy buenas fiestas. Viva la vida y gracias por estar ahí

Zorionak -- Bo Nadal -- Bon Nadal

[Derby]

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/bullet-points-key-terms-brexit-193412533.html

In Bullet Points: The Key Terms of the Brexit Deal

(Bloomberg) -- U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s post-Brexit trade deal is unique in that it will leave businesses facing more barriers to trade than they did while Britain was a member of the European Union.

But that’s the price of reclaiming sovereignty. While he can claim to have taken back control of Britain’s domestic fishing waters and ended the role of the European Court of Justice, businesses and consumers will face a slew of additional barriers to trade after Dec. 31.

The following encapsulates the main points of the deal, based on summaries provided by the two sides and Bloomberg reporting:

Trade in Goods

Summary: The agreement ensures that most goods traded between the EU and U.K. won’t face new tariffs or quotas. However, British exporters will face an array of new regulatory hurdles that will make it more costly and burdensome to do business in Europe.

Market access: U.K. and EU goods will continue to receive tariff-free and quota-free treatment.
Rules of origin: New rules require the U.K. to self-certify the origin of its exports to the EU. Certain products that contain a high threshold of inputs from outside the EU and U.K. may face new tariffs.
Health and safety: The EU will require U.K. agri-food exporters to provide health certificates and undergo sanitary and phyto-sanitary controls at border inspection posts.
Testing and certification: The absence of a mutual recognition agreement means U.K. regulatory bodies won’t be able to certify products for sale in the EU, a potentially big barrier to trade.
Trade remedies: The EU and U.K. may pursue tariffs and other sanctions according to rules established at the World Trade Organization.

Financial Services

Summary: The deal offers little clarity for financial firms. There is no decision on so-called equivalence, which would allow firms to sell their services into the single market from the City of London. The agreement only features standard provisions on financial services, meaning it doesn’t include commitments on market access.

The U.K. and EU will discuss how to move forward on specific equivalence decisions. The European Commission, which is in charge of allowing access to the EU’s market, said it needs more information from the U.K. and it doesn’t plan to adopt any more equivalence decisions at this point.Regulatory cooperation: The two sides made a joint declaration to support enhanced cooperation on financial oversight. They aim to agree on a Memorandum of Understanding by March.

Level Playing Field

Summary: The deal commits both sides to upholding their environmental, social, labor and tax transparency standards to make sure they don’t undercut each other. The British say the deal doesn’t include a ratchet mechanism that would force it to stiffen its rule in lockstep with the EU.

Either side will be able to impose with tariffs if they diverge too much -- subject to arbitration.
European companies unhappy about any British government subsidies to rivals could ask U.K. courts to examine if they are unfair, EU officials said.
No set limit for how much state help is problematic, this is taken on a “case-by-case” basis.
The U.K. summary says both sides must be transparent about subsidies; both the EU and the U.K. will need an independent authority to check state subsidies.
Courts must be able to order repayment of any illegal subsidies.A re-balancing mechanism is included.

Break Clauses

Summary: The trade deal could be reopened if the two sides cannot resolve a dispute, or want to change the terms of the agreement, according to people familiar with the matter. One of the biggest stumbling blocks in the negotiations was the question of how to settle disputes over trade in future. The mechanism is likely to work like this:

Either side can hit the other with tariffs in particular areas if they think they are justified under the terms of the agreement.
If one side thinks the other is being unfair on such tariffs, they can take the issue to an arbitration panel, which is independent and will not be the European Court of Justice
Individual chapters of the trade agreement can be reopened to renegotiate particular areas where there are disputes.
A nuclear option will be available to terminate the whole trade deal if it’s not working out, but the security agreement would stay in place.

Fishing Rules

Summary: This was one of the most contentious areas after disputes over the control of British fishing grounds came to symbolize the country’s desire to leave the EU.

U.K. fleets will take 25% of the current EU catch in British waters, worth 146 million pounds ($198 million), phased in over five years. Britain’s opening negotiating position called for an 80% increase, so this represents a significant compromise.There is a transition period of five-and-a-half years during which reciprocal access rights to each other’s waters remain unchanged.

Customs

Summary: Both sides pledge to limit customs red tape, including through programs for trusted traders known as authorized economic operators (AEOs have benefits including fewer controls).

“Bespoke” measures including cooperation at “roll-on roll-off” ports such as Dover and Holyhead in Britain are also foreseen, according to the U.K., while the EU refers to specific “facilitation arrangements” for wine, organics, automotive, pharmaceuticals and chemicals.
The U.K. exit from the European single market on Jan. 1 was going to lead to more customs bureaucracy for both sides regardless of whether they reached a free-trade deal or not. The accord largely commits the EU and Britain to follow international practices aimed at minimizing customs costs for businesses.

Aviation and Trucking

Summary: The EU has stopped short of granting automatic recognition to British aerospace designs and products, according to a synopsis published by the U.K. government.

Such recognition will be confined to minor changes until the EU “gains confidence in the U.K.’s capability for overseeing design certification,” the document says.
On trucking: Both sides commit to “good and efficient management of visa and border arrangements for road hauliers, in particular across the United Kingdom-Union border” and to “appropriately facilitate the entry and stay of” truckers.

Data Flows

Summary: The Brexit deal includes a temporary solution to keep data flowing between the EU and U.K. until the bloc has adopted a data adequacy decision, according to EU officials and a U.K. summary of the agreement.

This bridge period will last maximum six months, or end as soon as the EU’s data adequacy decision has been finalized, which could happen in early 2021, EU officials said.Both sides also committed to upholding high levels of data protection standards, which would include data-adequacy decisions from both sides.

Energy

Summary: The U.K. won’t have access to the EU’s internal energy market. This was expected but there will be new arrangements in place by April 2022 to make sure that trading is smooth and efficient on interconnectors -- huge power cables that run between the U.K. and Europe.

The U.K. is a net importer of electricity and gets 8% of its power from the continent. As an island nation, making sure trading across these interconnectors is efficient is important to Britain.
Making trading smooth will “benefit U.K. consumers and help integrate renewables and other clean technologies onto the grid in line with our domestic commitment to net zero emissions” the U.K. document says.
The deal includes guarantees on security of energy supply.The U.K. is no longer part of the EU’s emissions trading system but both sides agreed to cooperate on carbon pricing in future and “consider linking their respective systems.”
The U.K.-EU agreement would be suspended if either side breaches their commitments to the 2015 Paris Agreement on climate, according to the summaries.

Professional Services

Summary: The deal means that there will no longer be automatic mutual recognition of professional qualifications, according to the EU’s reading of the treaty.

“Doctors, nurses, dentists, pharmacists, vets, engineers or architects must have their qualifications recognized in each member state they wish to practice in,” the EU said.This is a loss for the U.K., which had wanted “comprehensive coverage” to ensure there were no “unnecessary” barriers to regulated services. However, the deal does still provide a “framework” for the recognition of qualifications, according to the U.K.’s summary of the agreement.

Business Travel

Summary: There are provisions so U.K. companies and individuals have “legal certainty and administrative clarity they need to continue engaging in business activity and delivering services in the EU when the transition period ends.”

They agreed on length of stays “that broadly reflect the outcome reached in the EU-Japan Economic Partnership Agreement. This includes the ability for U.K. short-term business visitors to travel to the EU for 90 days in any 180-day period.”
“The parties have also agreed not to impose work permits on business visitors for establishment purposes.”

Taxation

Summary: “There are no provisions constraining our domestic tax regime or tax rates,” according to the U.K.

Both sides pledge to “uphold global standards on tax transparency and fighting tax avoidance.”

Agriculture

Summary: Trade of farm goods will benefit from the zero-tariff, zero-quota terms between the two sides. However, there will be new requirements at the border, adding costs and hurdles for shippers.

No tariffs: The lack of levies is “especially important“ for the agriculture and fishing sector, as some meat and dairy products would have faced taxes topping 40% under WTO terms, the EU’s summary said.
Extra checks: “U.K. agri-food consignments will have to have health certificates and undergo sanitary and phyto-sanitary controls at Member States’ border inspection posts,” the EU says. The U.K. summary notes that both sides will be able to maintain their own sanitary standards going forward.Organic products: There will be an equivalence agreement allowing for foods certified organic in one market to be recognized in the other, the U.K. said.

Dispute Settlement

Summary: Disputes on the deal must be negotiated between the EU and the U.K. with no role for the EU courts, according to a U.K. reading of the agreement.

An arbitration panel may rule on some areas and can order one side to resolve the problem or offer compensation.Failure to do so allows the other side to “suspend obligations” which could mean blocking some access or cooperation.If there’s a “serious economic, societal or environmental difficulty,” either side can react with time-limited measures.

Law Enforcement

Summary: The deal will allow cooperation between the U.K. and EU, particularly as part of investigations into terrorism and serious crime, including with the exchange of DNA, fingerprint and airline passenger information.

There will be cooperation between U.K. and EU law-enforcement agencies, but the U.K. loses membership in Europol and Eurojust. Extradition: The U.K. said there will similar cooperation on extraditions to that between the EU and Norway and Iceland, “but with appropriate further safeguards for individuals beyond those in the European Arrest Warrant.”

Where extradition isn’t possible, there will still be “a path to justice in every case” such as requiring EU countries to refer cases to prosecution.

[Vipamo]

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/bullet-points-key-terms-brexit-193412533.html

In Bullet Points: The Key Terms of the Brexit Deal

(Bloomberg) -- U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s post-Brexit trade deal is unique in that it will leave businesses facing more barriers to trade than they did while Britain was a member of the European Union.

But that’s the price of reclaiming sovereignty. While he can claim to have taken back control of Britain’s domestic fishing waters and ended the role of the European Court of Justice, businesses and consumers will face a slew of additional barriers to trade after Dec. 31.

The following encapsulates the main points of the deal, based on summaries provided by the two sides and Bloomberg reporting:

Trade in Goods

Summary: The agreement ensures that most goods traded between the EU and U.K. won’t face new tariffs or quotas. However, British exporters will face an array of new regulatory hurdles that will make it more costly and burdensome to do business in Europe.

Market access: U.K. and EU goods will continue to receive tariff-free and quota-free treatment.
Rules of origin: New rules require the U.K. to self-certify the origin of its exports to the EU. Certain products that contain a high threshold of inputs from outside the EU and U.K. may face new tariffs.
Health and safety: The EU will require U.K. agri-food exporters to provide health certificates and undergo sanitary and phyto-sanitary controls at border inspection posts.
Testing and certification: The absence of a mutual recognition agreement means U.K. regulatory bodies won’t be able to certify products for sale in the EU, a potentially big barrier to trade.
Trade remedies: The EU and U.K. may pursue tariffs and other sanctions according to rules established at the World Trade Organization.

Financial Services

Summary: The deal offers little clarity for financial firms. There is no decision on so-called equivalence, which would allow firms to sell their services into the single market from the City of London. The agreement only features standard provisions on financial services, meaning it doesn’t include commitments on market access.

The U.K. and EU will discuss how to move forward on specific equivalence decisions. The European Commission, which is in charge of allowing access to the EU’s market, said it needs more information from the U.K. and it doesn’t plan to adopt any more equivalence decisions at this point.Regulatory cooperation: The two sides made a joint declaration to support enhanced cooperation on financial oversight. They aim to agree on a Memorandum of Understanding by March.

Level Playing Field

Summary: The deal commits both sides to upholding their environmental, social, labor and tax transparency standards to make sure they don’t undercut each other. The British say the deal doesn’t include a ratchet mechanism that would force it to stiffen its rule in lockstep with the EU.

Either side will be able to impose with tariffs if they diverge too much -- subject to arbitration.
European companies unhappy about any British government subsidies to rivals could ask U.K. courts to examine if they are unfair, EU officials said.
No set limit for how much state help is problematic, this is taken on a “case-by-case” basis.
The U.K. summary says both sides must be transparent about subsidies; both the EU and the U.K. will need an independent authority to check state subsidies.
Courts must be able to order repayment of any illegal subsidies.A re-balancing mechanism is included.

Break Clauses

Summary: The trade deal could be reopened if the two sides cannot resolve a dispute, or want to change the terms of the agreement, according to people familiar with the matter. One of the biggest stumbling blocks in the negotiations was the question of how to settle disputes over trade in future. The mechanism is likely to work like this:

Either side can hit the other with tariffs in particular areas if they think they are justified under the terms of the agreement.
If one side thinks the other is being unfair on such tariffs, they can take the issue to an arbitration panel, which is independent and will not be the European Court of Justice
Individual chapters of the trade agreement can be reopened to renegotiate particular areas where there are disputes.
A nuclear option will be available to terminate the whole trade deal if it’s not working out, but the security agreement would stay in place.

Fishing Rules

Summary: This was one of the most contentious areas after disputes over the control of British fishing grounds came to symbolize the country’s desire to leave the EU.

U.K. fleets will take 25% of the current EU catch in British waters, worth 146 million pounds ($198 million), phased in over five years. Britain’s opening negotiating position called for an 80% increase, so this represents a significant compromise.There is a transition period of five-and-a-half years during which reciprocal access rights to each other’s waters remain unchanged.

Customs

Summary: Both sides pledge to limit customs red tape, including through programs for trusted traders known as authorized economic operators (AEOs have benefits including fewer controls).

“Bespoke” measures including cooperation at “roll-on roll-off” ports such as Dover and Holyhead in Britain are also foreseen, according to the U.K., while the EU refers to specific “facilitation arrangements” for wine, organics, automotive, pharmaceuticals and chemicals.
The U.K. exit from the European single market on Jan. 1 was going to lead to more customs bureaucracy for both sides regardless of whether they reached a free-trade deal or not. The accord largely commits the EU and Britain to follow international practices aimed at minimizing customs costs for businesses.

Aviation and Trucking

Summary: The EU has stopped short of granting automatic recognition to British aerospace designs and products, according to a synopsis published by the U.K. government.

Such recognition will be confined to minor changes until the EU “gains confidence in the U.K.’s capability for overseeing design certification,” the document says.
On trucking: Both sides commit to “good and efficient management of visa and border arrangements for road hauliers, in particular across the United Kingdom-Union border” and to “appropriately facilitate the entry and stay of” truckers.

Data Flows

Summary: The Brexit deal includes a temporary solution to keep data flowing between the EU and U.K. until the bloc has adopted a data adequacy decision, according to EU officials and a U.K. summary of the agreement.

This bridge period will last maximum six months, or end as soon as the EU’s data adequacy decision has been finalized, which could happen in early 2021, EU officials said.Both sides also committed to upholding high levels of data protection standards, which would include data-adequacy decisions from both sides.

Energy

Summary: The U.K. won’t have access to the EU’s internal energy market. This was expected but there will be new arrangements in place by April 2022 to make sure that trading is smooth and efficient on interconnectors -- huge power cables that run between the U.K. and Europe.

The U.K. is a net importer of electricity and gets 8% of its power from the continent. As an island nation, making sure trading across these interconnectors is efficient is important to Britain.
Making trading smooth will “benefit U.K. consumers and help integrate renewables and other clean technologies onto the grid in line with our domestic commitment to net zero emissions” the U.K. document says.
The deal includes guarantees on security of energy supply.The U.K. is no longer part of the EU’s emissions trading system but both sides agreed to cooperate on carbon pricing in future and “consider linking their respective systems.”
The U.K.-EU agreement would be suspended if either side breaches their commitments to the 2015 Paris Agreement on climate, according to the summaries.

Professional Services

Summary: The deal means that there will no longer be automatic mutual recognition of professional qualifications, according to the EU’s reading of the treaty.

“Doctors, nurses, dentists, pharmacists, vets, engineers or architects must have their qualifications recognized in each member state they wish to practice in,” the EU said.This is a loss for the U.K., which had wanted “comprehensive coverage” to ensure there were no “unnecessary” barriers to regulated services. However, the deal does still provide a “framework” for the recognition of qualifications, according to the U.K.’s summary of the agreement.

Business Travel

Summary: There are provisions so U.K. companies and individuals have “legal certainty and administrative clarity they need to continue engaging in business activity and delivering services in the EU when the transition period ends.”

They agreed on length of stays “that broadly reflect the outcome reached in the EU-Japan Economic Partnership Agreement. This includes the ability for U.K. short-term business visitors to travel to the EU for 90 days in any 180-day period.”
“The parties have also agreed not to impose work permits on business visitors for establishment purposes.”

Taxation

Summary: “There are no provisions constraining our domestic tax regime or tax rates,” according to the U.K.

Both sides pledge to “uphold global standards on tax transparency and fighting tax avoidance.”

Agriculture

Summary: Trade of farm goods will benefit from the zero-tariff, zero-quota terms between the two sides. However, there will be new requirements at the border, adding costs and hurdles for shippers.

No tariffs: The lack of levies is “especially important“ for the agriculture and fishing sector, as some meat and dairy products would have faced taxes topping 40% under WTO terms, the EU’s summary said.
Extra checks: “U.K. agri-food consignments will have to have health certificates and undergo sanitary and phyto-sanitary controls at Member States’ border inspection posts,” the EU says. The U.K. summary notes that both sides will be able to maintain their own sanitary standards going forward.Organic products: There will be an equivalence agreement allowing for foods certified organic in one market to be recognized in the other, the U.K. said.

Dispute Settlement

Summary: Disputes on the deal must be negotiated between the EU and the U.K. with no role for the EU courts, according to a U.K. reading of the agreement.

An arbitration panel may rule on some areas and can order one side to resolve the problem or offer compensation.Failure to do so allows the other side to “suspend obligations” which could mean blocking some access or cooperation.If there’s a “serious economic, societal or environmental difficulty,” either side can react with time-limited measures.

Law Enforcement

Summary: The deal will allow cooperation between the U.K. and EU, particularly as part of investigations into terrorism and serious crime, including with the exchange of DNA, fingerprint and airline passenger information.

There will be cooperation between U.K. and EU law-enforcement agencies, but the U.K. loses membership in Europol and Eurojust. Extradition: The U.K. said there will similar cooperation on extraditions to that between the EU and Norway and Iceland, “but with appropriate further safeguards for individuals beyond those in the European Arrest Warrant.”

Where extradition isn’t possible, there will still be “a path to justice in every case” such as requiring EU countries to refer cases to prosecution.

Esto es un acuerdo político de cara a la galería que no se va a poder implementar de esta forma en la economía real. Al final no se podrá controlar el lavado de origen que pretenden los ingleses y la UE se reserva el derecho a bloquear productos sospechosos en este sentido.
2000 páginas de texto político-jurídico para venir a decir que se quedan las cosas como están confiando que RU no intente hacer dumping, cosa que no pretenden hacer por su puesto.

Feliz navidad a todos.

[Maloserá]

Esto es un acuerdo político de cara a la galería que no se va a poder implementar de esta forma en la economía real. Al final no se podrá controlar el lavado de origen que pretenden los ingleses y la UE se reserva el derecho a bloquear productos sospechosos en este sentido.
2000 páginas de texto político-jurídico para venir a decir que se quedan las cosas como están confiando que RU no intente hacer dumping, cosa que no pretenden hacer por su puesto.

Feliz navidad a todos.

No nos dejáis ni un día de tregua. Por alusiones 

Es un acuerdo politico. Como no podia ser de otra manera.

En cuanto al dumping: En servicios financieros me lo creo (secretismo a la suiza?). Pero el acuerdo no regula servicios.

Este acuerdo regula comercio de mercancías. La idea del dumping británico me parece difícil de creer.  El salario mínimo por hora (8.7 libras para mayores de 25) nos sale  para un trabajador a jornada completa en mas o menos 1,600 Euros al mes. Las prestaciones sociales como expliqué el otro día son aún mayores y permanentes. Mas de la mitad de los huevos que se consumen en el país son de picoteo libre. Y no se puede escribir ‘lista negra’ en un email porque te llaman de recursos humanos y te dicen que es ‘lista no autorizada’ para que no se ofenda nadie, y que si has hecho los cursos obligatorios de ‘eliminación del sesgo inconsciente’ y ‘reconocimiento del privilegio de ser blanco’.  Y la policía no lleva armas de fuego. Además de ser el país del mundo que mas ha reducido las emisiones de CO2 en las ultimas cuatro décadas (un 40% menos) o de aportar el 0.7% del PIB en ayuda internacional incluso durante la crisis. Recientemente reducido al 0.5%. Hasta hay asociaciones de protección del zorro de ciudad. Y las bolsas de patatas (para cocinar) vienen con instrucciones.

Visto todo esto, me parece difícil que la UE pueda aprobar estándares de protección laboral, social, ecológica o de calidad democrática que puedan cumplir países como Rumanía o Bulgaria, y que UK no cumpla ya. En el corto y medio plazo al menos. A largo plazo, estaremos todos muertos, que decía Keynes.

Sigo pensando lo que dije hace unos días. Igual que el problema catalán no se entiende sin vivirlo, el Brexit tampoco.

El mejor resumen de por qué estamos donde estamos lo hizo ayer Johnson en su conferencia después del acuerdo. Y la parte de la explicación que faltó en su discurso fue la competición salarial en trabajos de media y baja cualificación que ha tenido la clase obrera británica desde la incorporación de los países excomunistas en la UE. Irónicamente gracias a Tony Blair, dando libertad de movimiento antes que nadie.

Por resumir en dos frases. Entraron en el mercado común europeo. Y se salieron de la unión europea.

[Derby]

https://www.reuters.com/article/japan-economy-inflation/update-2-tokyo-consumer-prices-post-steepest-drop-in-decade-japan-retail-sales-subdued-idUSL4N2J42NQ

Tokyo Dec core consumer prices fall at fastest pace in over 10 years

Tokyo consumer prices fell the fastest in more than a decade, while Japan’s jobs market and retail sales remained subdued, data showed on Friday, raising the risks of a return to deflation as the COVID-19 pandemic hammers demand.

[Derby]

UK-EU TRADE AND COOPERATION AGREEMENT - Summary

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/948093/TCA_SUMMARY_PDF.pdf

[Vipamo]

Esto es un acuerdo político de cara a la galería que no se va a poder implementar de esta forma en la economía real. Al final no se podrá controlar el lavado de origen que pretenden los ingleses y la UE se reserva el derecho a bloquear productos sospechosos en este sentido.
2000 páginas de texto político-jurídico para venir a decir que se quedan las cosas como están confiando que RU no intente hacer dumping, cosa que no pretenden hacer por su puesto.

Feliz navidad a todos.

No nos dejáis ni un día de tregua. Por alusiones 

Es un acuerdo politico. Como no podia ser de otra manera.

En cuanto al dumping: En servicios financieros me lo creo (secretismo a la suiza?). Pero el acuerdo no regula servicios.

Este acuerdo regula comercio de mercancías. La idea del dumping británico me parece difícil de creer.  El salario mínimo por hora (8.7 libras para mayores de 25) nos sale  para un trabajador a jornada completa en mas o menos 1,600 Euros al mes. Las prestaciones sociales como expliqué el otro día son aún mayores y permanentes. Mas de la mitad de los huevos que se consumen en el país son de picoteo libre. Y no se puede escribir ‘lista negra’ en un email porque te llaman de recursos humanos y te dicen que es ‘lista no autorizada’ para que no se ofenda nadie, y que si has hecho los cursos obligatorios de ‘eliminación del sesgo inconsciente’ y ‘reconocimiento del privilegio de ser blanco’.  Y la policía no lleva armas de fuego. Además de ser el país del mundo que mas ha reducido las emisiones de CO2 en las ultimas cuatro décadas (un 40% menos) o de aportar el 0.7% del PIB en ayuda internacional incluso durante la crisis. Recientemente reducido al 0.5%. Hasta hay asociaciones de protección del zorro de ciudad. Y las bolsas de patatas (para cocinar) vienen con instrucciones.

Visto todo esto, me parece difícil que la UE pueda aprobar estándares de protección laboral, social, ecológica o de calidad democrática que puedan cumplir países como Rumanía o Bulgaria, y que UK no cumpla ya. En el corto y medio plazo al menos. A largo plazo, estaremos todos muertos, que decía Keynes.

Sigo pensando lo que dije hace unos días. Igual que el problema catalán no se entiende sin vivirlo, el Brexit tampoco.

El mejor resumen de por qué estamos donde estamos lo hizo ayer Johnson en su conferencia después del acuerdo. Y la parte de la explicación que faltó en su discurso fue la competición salarial en trabajos de media y baja cualificación que ha tenido la clase obrera británica desde la incorporación de los países excomunistas en la UE. Irónicamente gracias a Tony Blair, dando libertad de movimiento antes que nadie.

Por resumir en dos frases. Entraron en el mercado común europeo. Y se salieron de la unión europea.

No me refería a un dumping salarial por parte de UK con los salarios pagados en la isla. Me refería al dumping en precios que se puede hacer con el lavado de origen, p.ej.  traer componentes fabricados sin cumplir estándares en terceros países, ensamblarlos en UK poniéndoles el sello made in UK y venderlo en la UE pirateando a las empresas de aquí.

[Maloserá]

...
No me refería a un dumping salarial por parte de UK con los salarios pagados en la isla. Me refería al dumping en precios que se puede hacer con el lavado de origen, p.ej.  traer componentes fabricados sin cumplir estándares en terceros países, ensamblarlos en UK poniéndoles el sello made in UK y venderlo en la UE pirateando a las empresas de aquí.

  Sorry. estoy hipersensibilizado con el tema, como te puedes imaginar. Veo algo que se parece a rojo, y embisto...

[Maloserá]

Como dijo Von Leyen, hay que dejar el Brexit atrás. Y que mejor manera que echarnos unas risas con el primer ministro británico en Navidad. Desde el minuto 2 tiene gracia. Subtitulado en inglés. Tenéis que abrir la página del periódico y en unos segundos aparece el triangulo de 'play'. Si ampliáis la corbata os daréis cuenta de como andamos.

https://www.standard.co.uk/news/uk/boris-johnson-brexit-deal-christmas-b482229.html

[senslev]

But what about human liberty? Is there no spiritual freedom in regard to behavior and reaction to any given surroundings? Man can preserve a vestige of spiritual freedom, of independence of mind, even in such terrible conditions of psychic and physical stress.

We who lived in concentration camps can remember the men who walked through the huts comforting others, giving away their last piece of bread. They may have been few in number, but they offer sufficient proof that everything can be taken from a man but one thing: the last of the human freedoms— to choose one’s attitude in any given set of circumstances, to choose one’s own way (Derby).

And there were always choices to make. Every day, every hour, offered the opportunity to make a decision, a decision which determined whether you would or would not submit to those powers which threatened to rob you of your very self, your inner freedom; which determined whether or not you would become the plaything of circumstance, renouncing freedom and dignity to become molded into the form of the typical inmate.

Viktor E. Frankl. Man's Search for Meaning

Felices Fiestas.

[Derby]

Más reacciones al acuerdo llegado entre UK y la UE... Yves Smith de nakedcapitalism.com

https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2020/12/quick-notes-on-the-brexit-deal.html

Quick Notes on the Brexit Deal

Because it is Christmas Day, and I’d really rather not spill a lot of ink on the Brexit deal at this particular moment, plus we don’t really know much about what is inside the package yet, I hope you don’t mind just a few comments now.

This is still a very thin deal that only reduces Brexit dislocations. The UK gets a hard Brexit rather than a crash-out. On trade, the big gain is not having tariffs or quotas. However, that does not eliminate the need for new documentation at the border, and new licenses/permits for haulers. Kent will remain a lorry park for the next few months, and the situation will get better only when the various parties to shipments have learned how to process the paperwork correctly and quickly, and the UK has gotten its systems in order and has enough trained border personnel.

Other important issues were things like access to security databases and data sharing, which weren’t as sexy (and weren’t the big bones of contention) but would have fallen by the wayside in a no deal.

A deal by January 1 was not inevitable. Some observers are opining that the EU and UK were bound to come to terms. Yes, because they are still very much bound up with each other due to history and proximity, which resulted in a pretty high level of economic integration under the EU. But not necessarily by January 1. People and countries can be irrational and shortsighted, or think they are being rational when operating on bad data or bad assumptions. As recently as last weekend, it really did look like the negotiations were fatally stalled. I am highly confident that the EU side recognized that a crash-out would result in the UK coming back to the table in relatively short order, say weeks, as the damage done by tariffs on top of all the other disruptions became too painful. I’m not clear if the UK ever accepted this idea.

A thought experiment: what if Jean-Claude Juncker were still President of the EU Commission? Juncker had the highly entertaining habit of poking the UK in the eye after every in-person top-level meeting by allowing his deputies to leak tidbits which demonstrated how ignorant and presumptuous the UK side was. He’d also snark to journalists at his well-lubricated lunches. If Juncker kept poisoning the well, even in a small way, it would have put off not just the fabulously erratic UK side, but would have given ammo to those on the EU side that had lost patience with Johnson’s antics and need to scapegoat. That would have made it harder to keep everyone at the table.

The EU was already tired of how much time Brexit had taken. They could almost certainly gotten a better deal in the if they’d stood back, not kept giving the UK more of a lifeline, and let them crash out. But negotiations in 2021 from meaningfully different starting points would have been a huge time sink, in the middle of a pandemic and resulting economic crisis.

It seems likely that the EU also sensed weakness on the UK side. They had to have noticed Brexit garnering less and less public support. They had to have noticed how the Government was being pilloried for its colossal Covid mismanagement. Even the US press is on the case. From the New York Times last week:

To shine a light on one of the greatest spending sprees in Britain’s postwar era, The New York Times analyzed a large segment of it, the roughly 1,200 central government contracts that have been made public, together worth nearly $22 billion. Of that, about $11 billion went to companies either run by friends and associates of politicians in the Conservative Party, or with no prior experience or a history of controversy. Meanwhile, smaller firms without political clout got nowhere….

The contracts that have been made public are only a part of the total. Citing the urgency of the pandemic, the government cast aside the usual transparency rules and awarded contracts worth billions of dollars without competitive bidding. To date, just over half of all of the contracts awarded in the first seven months remain concealed from the public, according to the National Audit Office, a watchdog agency…

In the government’s rush to hand out contracts, officials ignored or missed many red flags. Dozens of companies that won a total of $3.6 billion in contracts had poor credit, and several had declared assets of just $2 or $3 each. Others had histories of fraud, human rights abuses, tax evasion or other serious controversies. A few were set up on the spur of the moment or had no relevant experience — and still won contracts.

I encourage you to read the New York Times story in full.

So Christmas is nigh. The Government had already gotten pushback over lockdowns in Manchester. Then the new Covid strain is discovered, the Government botches its Tier 4 lockdown of the South just as pretty much all of the world defensively cordons the UK off from air travel (and France from lorry entry).

And speaking of lorries, numerous videos of trucks tailbacks extending for miles and new lorry parks at Kent looking mighty full were a wake-up call that Brexit was turning into a logistical nightmare, and the worst hadn’t even arrived. As David said by e-mail:

Covid has actually been helpful, in giving a foretaste of what no-deal would actually be like, and I wonder whether huge traffic jams and travel bans may finally have brought home to Johnson that no-deal could not be presented under any circumstances as a victory. I think he’s basically a coward (as May was) and he was previously more scared of the ultras than of no-deal. I think he was finally more scared of no deal.

But of course, as we’ve all been saying recently, a “deal” in this context means precious little in practical terms. It’s almost like saying “we agree to say we have an agreement” and we’ll work out the details later.

The UK makes it clear that it cares more about PR than substance. The Government stunningly posted a document designed to bolster its campaign to depict the deal as a win for the UK t before the two sides said they’d reached an agreement (per Politico, 2:44 PM Brussels time; Clive e-mailed me the link at what would have been 1:43 PM; a Bloomberg story on Johnson braying about the Government’s supposed victory had gone up more than two hours earlier).

As vlade noted:

The point here is that the UK even feels compelled to score it as a “win-lose” situation, which is likely to be the first. Even Trump didn’t run a detailed score-sheet on the US negotiations counting “points away and points home”.

David added:

I may be wrong but I don’t think I’ve ever seen anything like this in the past – a document which analyses a settlement in terms of “wins” and “losses.” It’s spin-doctoring gone mad. The usual custom is to talk about a “good deal for both sides.” It suggests, as we thought, that this has always been just about presentation, not substance.

In keeping, from Politico’s morning newsletter:

“It was a long and winding road, but we have got a good deal to show for it,” European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said at her press conference, citing the greatest British export of all time. “It is fair, it is a balanced deal, and it is the right and responsible thing to do for both sides.”

And even on the most cursory of passes, it’s obvious that the Government’s scorecard can’t be taken seriously. First, there’s no weighting of the importance of the various items. Clive concurred:

It’s just stupid stuff which is fodder for sound bites in a five minute TV interview from ministers but of not a shred of real-world meaning. Prisoner transfer having the same “win” or “lose” numeric value as financial services? Pish. Written by the U.K. government Department of Silly Walks I think.

Second, some of the claimed UK wins are clumsy fabrications. For instance:



This is a flagrant misrepresentation of a process point. Recall that the UK repeatedly asked for a series of mini-deals, a la Switzerland, which the EU flatly rejected. Remember Barnier’s mantra: “Nothing is settled until everything is settled.” Even though the two sides had put a large number of issues to bed while wrangling over the open matters, any understandings would be moot if the remaining ones weren’t agreed.

The barmy discussion of annexes is an effort to present their existence as a capitulation to the earlier “mini deals” demand. But that’s false. The deal is one big treaty. Having some issues addressed in particular sections does not make it any less a single deal unless the annexes are set up to be legally separable, which is exceedingly unlikely.

Given this level of, at best, slipshod presentation of the terms, it will take a reading of the actual text to determine what went down. Careful wording could turn what the UK scores as wins on either side to draws or “to be determined later.”

As the Guardian cautioned in its editorial:

The contents are not yet clear, and the proximity of the 31 December deadline leaves little time to absorb the character of the new arrangements, let alone scrutinise the detail. That is partly a function of Mr Johnson’s notorious tendency to equivocate, but it also reflects a certain tactical cunning. The prime minister does not want this deal to be examined. What can already be said with some certainty is that it prescribes an immediate downgrade for the UK economy. That is a function of leaving the single market and customs union, and those choices were baked into the negotiating mandate. Trade volumes will decrease. Supply chains will be disrupted. Jobs will be lost. Those are intrinsic features of the hard Brexit model mandated by Mr Johnson.

In other words, Johnson’s victory is Pyrrhic.

[Maloserá]

Derby, creo que los análisis economicos o jurídicos del acuerdo ... are missing the point. Lo que importa es que Nigel Farage ha dicho 'this war is over'. El telegraph, el daily mail y el resto de los tabloides están contentos. Los laboristas van a votar a favor en el parlamento. Los brexiteers están contentos y los remainers aliviados. Esto es un gran logro.

Lo peor de un no acuerdo para mí hubiera sido el envenenamiento de las relaciones entre países. Esto se ha evitado. Cuanto vale en el PIB que yo (o tres millones de europeos en UK, y un millon de britanicos en europa) no nos sintamos permanentemente como exiliados de paises 'enemigos'? Nada. Cuanto vale para nuestro bienestar? Todo. Por eso estoy tan contento. Este acuerdo permite que pueda seguir viviendo en un 'pais amigo' por lo que me queda de carrera profesional, o de vida.
 
En cuanto a los contratos de PPE, son públicos. El estudio que usa el New York Times viene de un informe de la National Audits Office. Me encantaría ver gráficos así de la contratación de cualquier cosa en la Diputación de Ourense.

[Derby]

https://www.economist.com/britain/2020/12/24/britain-and-the-european-union-agree-on-the-hardest-brexit

Britain and the European Union agree on the hardest Brexit

THE POST-BREXIT deal announced on December 24th by Boris Johnson, Britain’s prime minister, and Ursula von der Leyen, the European Commission’s president, has come extremely late for Christmas. It is also painfully close to the end of the standstill transition period on December 31st. It falls short of the best-in-class, comprehensive free-trade agreement that Mr Johnson once promised. And costly disruption to today’s frictionless trade is inevitable when Britain leaves the EU’s single market and customs union on January 1st. All the same, the deal is welcome. It will at least constitute a base on which to build further agreements.

Brexit has counterposed two visions of sovereignty. Mr Johnson rejoiced over Britain gaining the unfettered ability to write its own laws. Ms von der Leyen suggested instead that sovereignty was best assured by “pooling our strength and speaking together in a world full of great powers.” Both spoke of remaining close partners and allies.

Right up to the last minute, there was no guarantee that negotiations would succeed. Arguments in Brussels between Michel Barnier, the EU’s negotiator, and David Frost, his British counterpart, dragged on through the week. Three familiar issues were at stake: a level playing field for regulation to prevent unfair competition; some continuing EU countries’ access to British fishing waters; and a dispute-settlement mechanism. In the end Mr Johnson and Ms von der Leyen were brought in to make the necessary compromises. As has been the pattern since the 2016 referendum, Britain has generally had to move the most, largely abandoning its initial position of keeping most of the benefits of the EU’s single market without the obligations. This reflects the power balance between the two, as well as the fact that no-deal would have been more damaging to Britain than to the EU.

The agreement is unusual; it does not presage a closer trading relationship but a parting of the ways. The details are yet to emerge in full, although most of what is in the deal is now known. For the level playing field, the two sides have agreed that an independent arbitrator should decide whether future regulatory divergence is sufficiently harmful to permit retaliation through tariffs. On fish, the EU will retain access for just over five years, though with its quota cut by 25%; after that, future arrangements will require negotiation. And there will be a system for settling disputes that does not include a role for the European Court of Justice except for interpreting EU law. With these three points settled, bringing home a zero-tariff, zero-quota free-trade agreement is an achievement for Mr Johnson. (On trade in goods, this is a better deal than Canada has with the EU, the model he favoured; but it comes with more stringent obligations on maintaining a level playing field.)

The immediate task will be to ratify a text that runs to some 2,000 pages in all. That is a lot for anyone to digest in less than seven days. Yet EU governments have been closely involved in the negotiations, so none is likely to object. And Mr Johnson’s big majority means that the Westminster Parliament seems certain to approve the deal next week, even though MPs will not realistically have had enough time for proper scrutiny. For its part the European Parliament has decided that it needs more time, so it will not vote on the deal until January. To the annoyance of many MEPs, EU governments are expected to apply it provisionally ahead of such a vote. Yet as a recent report from the House of Commons Brexit committee points out, most businesses will still be ill-prepared for the changes to come on January 1st. Chaotic disruption can be expected. This week’s lorry queues in Kent, caused mainly by restrictions related to the covid-19 pandemic, were a warning. The cost of Mr Johnson’s obstinate refusal to extend the transition period when he had the legal opportunity to do so in June will soon become clear.

A bigger concern is what the deal omits. Its trade provisions relate almost entirely to goods, meaning there is next to nothing for services, which constitute 80% of Britain’s economy and make up the fastest-growing sector of global exports. The EU has yet to deliver an equivalence ruling for financial-services regulation, and even when it does it can be withdrawn at only 30 days’ notice. Even more urgently needed is an EU data-adequacy decision to permit the free transfer of data, a crucial part of modern cross-border business. There is nothing in the deal on mutual recognition of professional-services qualifications.

Nor is there anything on foreign-policy co-operation, which the British government seems not to value. And although the deal has some provisions on domestic security, British access to EU security databases and the Europol system of police work will be more limited than now. Similarly Britain will lose its uninhibited right to use the European Arrest Warrant.

For most Britons, the more immediate impact will be losing the right of free movement throughout the EU, a consequence of ending EU citizens’ right to enter the UK. There will be some travel and work restrictions, and existing arrangements for health care and car insurance are likely to end. Some scientific and research co-operation should continue, but Britain has been excluded from the Galileo satellite-positioning project and there are uncertainties over the terms for its future participation in the Horizon research programme. Britain is also going to drop out of the EU’s Erasmus scheme of student exchanges. And then there is Northern Ireland, which unlike Great Britain will remain in the single market and customs union. Border and customs checks in the Irish Sea are likely to foment continuing debate over the future unity of the UK, as will continuing Scottish opposition to Brexit.

Most analysis of the consequences finds that, even with a trade deal, there will be a hit to the economy. Recently the independent Office of Budget Responsibility suggested that GDP would in the long run be reduced by some 4% compared with what it would otherwise have been. And, although Britain has successfully rolled over most of the free-trade deals that it had with other countries as a member of the EU, there is little sign of offsetting gains from new trade deals with the likes of America, China or India. In short, this will be as hard a Brexit as anything but no deal, and much harder than might have been expected after the relatively narrow referendum result of June 2016. Yet it is still good to have, if only because (to adapt a favourite slogan of Brexiteers), any deal is better than no deal.[/size]

[Derby]

En la línea del último comentario de Asustadísimos:

https://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/1376765/brexit-news-boris-johnson-brexit-trade-deal-latest-yanis-varoufakis

‘Real negotiating begins in June!’ Yanis Varoufakis issues warning Brexit deal ISN'T done

YANIS VAROUFAKIS has given a dire Brexit warning and claimed the "real negotiating" will begin in June.

The former Greek Minister of Finance tweeted:

[visillófilas pepitófagas]

Derby, creo que los análisis economicos o jurídicos del acuerdo ... are missing the point. Lo que importa es que Nigel Farage ha dicho 'this war is over'. El telegraph, el daily mail y el resto de los tabloides están contentos. Los laboristas van a votar a favor en el parlamento. Los brexiteers están contentos y los remainers aliviados. Esto es un gran logro.

Si lo dice Farage debe ser verdad 

Este acuerdo no es viable. Es sólo "político", mercadotecnia vacía para preservar los rallies bursátiles de fin de año, pero no implementable en lo económico y comercial. Deja abiertos temas absolutamente claves como los servicios financieros y el tratamiento de datos, que es donde está la madre del cordero.

Si a británicos de pura cepa y a los "allegados" (the charnegos of the islands) os satisface, perfecto. La comida de hoy y la cena de Nochevieja os sentarán mucho mejor que si os contaran - o quisierais ver - la realidad. Pero está todo igual de abierto que hace un mes.

En fin, Feliz Navidad a todos. Un abrazo muy fuerte, mucha serenidad y no se crean prácticamente nada de lo que vean / lean (ni tampoco lo contrario, porque acabarán en la conspiranoia).