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......Si a británicos de pura cepa y a los "allegados" (the charnegos of the islands) ...
Os deseo una Feliz Navidad y que el próximo año llegue menos siniestro que este 2020.A pesar de la amable ayuda de Sudden & Sharp no he podido insertar la imagen que he elegido este año para la felicitación de navidad. Tiene medio mega y excede lo que el sistema de TE acepta.De cualquier forma la veréis en este enlace. Es el mosaico de los tres Reyes Magos de la Basílica de San Apolinar el Nuevo en Rávena. Del siglo VI nada menos. https://www.lacamaradelarte.com/2020/05/mosaicos-de-san-apolinar-nuevo.htmlRávena es un lugar único en la larga historia de la Cristiandad y vale la pena visitarla. Mis mejores deseos para todos los miembros de este foro que cada vez se enriquece más con nuevas aportaciones e ideas.Un cordial abrazo.
Brexit Deal Done, Britain Now Scrambles to See if It Can WorkFor weary Brexit negotiators on both sides of the English Channel, a Christmas Eve trade agreement sealed 11 months of painstaking deliberations over Britain’s departure from the European Union, encompassing details as arcane as what species of fish could be caught by each side’s boats in British waters.But for many others — among them bankers, traders, truckers, architects and millions of migrants — Christmas was only the beginning, Day 1 of a high-stakes and unpredictable experiment in how to unstitch a tight web of commercial relations across Europe.The deal, far from closing the book on Britain’s tumultuous partnership with Europe, has opened a new one, beginning on its first pages with what analysts say will be the biggest overnight change in modern commercial relations.In the four years since Britons voted to cast off a half-century of ties to Europe, many migrants have stopped moving to Britain for work and British firms have sent employees to Paris and Frankfurt to set up toeholds on the continent. But for all those preparations, seven days are now all that stand between businesses and an avalanche of new trading obstacles on Jan. 1.“We are going to have to learn how to do this as we go,” said Shane Brennan, chief executive of the Cold Chain Federation, a British group representing logistics firms. “Let’s hope it’s for the better in the end, but it will be slow, complex and expensive.”British distributors, spared the calamity of a no-deal separation, were nevertheless scrambling to prepare the first of hundreds of thousands of new export certifications to allow their meat, fish and dairy to be sold to the bloc. British food, once exempt from such burdensome checks, now faces the same inspections as European imports from countries like Chile or Australia.Britain’s services sector — encompassing not only London’s powerful financial industry, but also lawyers, architects, consultants and others — was largely left out of the 1,246-page deal, despite the sector accounting for 80 percent of British economic activity.The deal also did little to assuage European migrants, some of whom left Britain during the pandemic and are now struggling to determine whether they need to rush back to establish a right to settle in Britain before the split is finalized on Dec. 31.“As of the 1st of January, the landscape changes, and the safety blanket of the transition period is gone,” said Maike Bohn, a co-founder of the3million, which supports European citizens in Britain, laying out her fears that Europeans will be unfairly refused jobs and rental apartments amid confusion over the rules. “There’s apprehension, and also numbness.”Negotiators have not formally published the voluminous trade deal, though both sides have offered summaries, leaving analysts and ordinary citizens uncertain about some details even as lawmakers in Britain and Europe prepare to vote on it in a matter of days.But it had long been clear that the agreement would offer the City of London, a hub for international banks, asset managers, insurance firms and hedge funds, few assurances about future trade across the English Channel. Britain sells roughly 30 billion pounds, or $40 billion, of financial services to the European Union each year, profiting from an integrated market that makes it easier in some cases to sell services from one member country to another than it is to sell services from one American state to another.The new trade deal does smooth the flow of goods across British borders. But it leaves financial firms without the biggest benefit of European Union membership: the ability to easily offer services to clients across the region from a single base. This has long allowed a bank in London to provide loans to a business in Venice, or trade bonds for a company in Madrid.That loss is especially painful for Britain, which ran a surplus of £18 billion, or $24 billion, on trade in financial and other services with the European Union in 2019, but a deficit of £97 billion, or $129 billion, on trade in goods.“The result of the deal is that the European Union retains all of its current advantages in trading, particularly with goods, and the U.K. loses all of its current advantages in the trade for services,” said Tom Kibasi, the former director of the Institute for Public Policy Research, a research institute. “The outcome of this trade negotiation is precisely what happens with most trade deals: The larger party gets what it wants and the smaller party rolls over.”After Jan. 1, the sale of such services will hang on whether European regulators decide that Britain’s new financial regulations are close enough to their own to be trusted, a process that excludes some common banking activities and leaves others subject to political considerations. Already, Britons living in Europe who have bank accounts in Britain have been told their accounts will be closed.“Imagine if you took the U.K. and you moved it into Canada, or Australia,” said Davide Serra, the chief executive of Algebris Investments, an asset management firm with offices across Europe. “That’s what this does for services. The U.K. has become a third country.”In announcing the trade deal this week, Prime Minister Boris Johnson of Britain acknowledged it offered “not as much” access for financial firms “as we would have liked.” But he was not as straightforward about the difficulties facing even British retailers under the deal, analysts said.In promising that there were “no non-tariff barriers” to selling goods after Brexit, he ignored the tens of millions of customs declarations, health assessments and other checks that businesses will now be responsible for.Britain is short of the customs agents needed to deal with those documents, and even the veterinarians who carry out health checks, industry experts said. And in recent days, European truckers have received an alarming preview of the havoc wrought by shipping delays of even a few days when they were stranded at British ports because of travel bans connected to the new coronavirus variant.“It’s a massive problem that is going to cost industry millions of pounds and euros,” said Alex Altmann, a partner in charge of Brexit-related issues at Blick Rothenberg, an accounting and tax practice. “At the end of the day, that’s going to be passed on to consumers.”For European citizens living in Britain, too, the completion of a Brexit deal did little to ease fears about how the country’s new immigration rules could complicate their lives. Migrants have been allowed to apply for so-called “settled status” in Britain. But few provisions have been made for people who cannot complete the process online, much less for people who do not realize they need permission to stay in a country where they have lived for decades.“There’s the potential for a crisis in the next year or two concerning E.U. migrants who were already here, and had been here for a long time, but have fallen through the cracks of the registration scheme,” said Robert Ford, a professor of politics at the University of Manchester.The limitations of the Brexit deal reflect the fact that even as financial and other regulations have grown more complex in recent years, trade deals have struggled to keep pace, said David Henig, an analyst at the European Center for International Political Economy.But Britain also limited what it sought in the deal to a few key areas, making the emergence of a bare-bones agreement almost inevitable, analysts said.Next to a no-deal split, involving enormous logjams at the borders and deep uncertainty for businesses, the agreement was a salve. But even with such a deal, the path forward is uncertain.“Brexit was always going to be a long-running hit to the U.K.’s competitiveness,” said Mr. Kibasi, the analyst. “But the way it’ll play out is by damaging investment in the U.K., so it’s a slow puncture, not a quick crash.”
China's Economy Set to Overtake U.S. Earlier Due to Covid FalloutThe Chinese economy is set to overtake the U.S. faster than previously anticipated after weathering the coronavirus pandemic better than the West, according to the Centre for Economics and Business Research.The world’s biggest and second-biggest economies are on course to trade places in dollar terms in 2028, five years earlier than expected a year ago, it said on Saturday.In its World Economic League Table, the consultancy also calculated that China could become a high-income economy as soon as 2023. Further cementing Asia’s growing might, India is set to move up the rankings to become the No. 3 economy at the end of the decade.Chinese President Xi Jinping said last month it was “entirely possible” for his economy to double in size by 2035 under his government’s new Five-Year Plan, which aims to achieve “modern socialism” in 15 years.China was the first economy to suffer a pandemic blow, but has recovered swiftly, according to government data. That should prompt Western economies to pay much more attention to what is happening in Asia, according to the report.“Typically, we compare ourselves with other Western economies and miss out on what often is best practice, especially in the rapidly growing economies in Asia,” it said.
China to leapfrog U.S. as world's biggest economy by 2028: think tankLONDON (Reuters) - China will overtake the United States to become the world’s biggest economy in 2028, five years earlier than previously estimated due to the contrasting recoveries of the two countries from the COVID-19 pandemic, a think tank said.“For some time, an overarching theme of global economics has been the economic and soft power struggle between the United States and China,” the Centre for Economics and Business Research said in an annual report published on Saturday.“The COVID-19 pandemic and corresponding economic fallout have certainly tipped this rivalry in China’s favour.”The CEBR said China’s “skilful management of the pandemic”, with its strict early lockdown, and hits to long-term growth in the West meant China’s relative economic performance had improved.China looked set for average economic growth of 5.7% a year from 2021-25 before slowing to 4.5% a year from 2026-30.While the United States was likely to have a strong post-pandemic rebound in 2021, its growth would slow to 1.9% a year between 2022 and 2024, and then to 1.6% after that.Japan would remain the world’s third-biggest economy, in dollar terms, until the early 2030s when it would be overtaken by India, pushing Germany down from fourth to fifth.The United Kingdom, currently the fifth-biggest economy by the CEBR’s measure, would slip to sixth place from 2024.However, despite a hit in 2021 from its exit from the European Union’s single market, British GDP in dollars was forecast to be 23% higher than France’s by 2035, helped by Britain’s lead in the increasingly important digital economy.Europe accounted for 19% of output in the top 10 global economies in 2020 but that will fall to 12% by 2035, or lower if there is an acrimonious split between the EU and Britain, the CEBR said.It also said the pandemic’s impact on the global economy was likely to show up in higher inflation, not slower growth.“We see an economic cycle with rising interest rates in the mid-2020s,” it said, posing a challenge for governments which have borrowed massively to fund their response to the COVID-19 crisis.“But the underlying trends that have been accelerated by this point to a greener and more tech-based world as we move into the 2030s.”
Brexit: UK and EU can have 'special relationship', says Michael GoveThe UK and EU will be able to enjoy a "special relationship" as a result of the post-Brexit trade deal, Cabinet Secretary Michael Gove has said.Writing in the Times, Mr Gove said he hoped the agreement will also see politics move away from the bitterness surrounding the 2016 referendum.He wrote: "We can now embark on a new, more hopeful, chapter in our history."It comes as EU ambassadors received a Christmas Day briefing on the trade deal from EU negotiator Michel Barnier.Mr Barnier updated them on the agreement, which was reached on Christmas Eve after months of fraught talks on issues such as fishing rights and business rules.MPs will vote on the deal in Parliament on 30 December, with the UK set to exit existing trading rules on 31 December.Writing in the Times newspaper, Mr Gove, who was a leading campaigner for the Brexit vote in the 2016 referendum, said he "won't deny it's been difficult" for many people since then."Friendships have been strained, families were divided and our politics has been rancorous and, at times, ugly. Through the past four years, as a politician at the centre of this debate, I've made more than my share of mistakes or misjudgements, seen old friendships crumble and those closest to me have to endure pressures they never anticipated."He said he had felt "conscious of a responsibility" to deliver Brexit, adding: "I asked people to vote Leave so they could have their voices heard."Mr Gove said the deal would give UK businesses "certainty and the ability to plan for growth and investment"."We can develop a new pattern of friendly co-operation with the EU, a special relationship if you will, between sovereign equals," he added."The greatest prize, however, is the chance now to renew our country and help it to recover from the ravages of the Covid-19 pandemic in a spirit of shared endeavour and solidarity. We have a duty to spread opportunity more equally across the UK. Outside the EU, with a good trade deal in place, we can tackle the injustices and inequalities that have held Britain back."(...)
Ratio of Nasdaq to S&P 500 Eclipses Peak of Dot-Com Bubble for First TimeHere’s one for the history books: the ratio of the tech-centric Nasdaq index to the S&P 500 has reached the highest level ever recorded (3.4) this December, eclipsing the peak of the Dot-Com bubble (3.3) for the first time.Whereas the Dot-Com bubble caused a brief and conspicuous spike in the Nasdaq/S&P 500 ratio from 1999 through 2001, the current record is the result of years of trending since the Global Financial Crisis, followed by a Covid inspired surge in tech stocks this year.There is a case to make that this trend is at least partially a reflection of the real structural rise of technology in the economy. Then again, some back of the envelope math reveals that sustaining current growth in the Nasdaq (up roughly 42% year-to-date) implies its market cap overtaking total global GDP by roughly 2024. Needless to say, that seems unlikely.
Si lo resume vd. con un 'The EU is cheating us' le entenderíamos igualmente, con la diferencia de que no pensaríamos que nos toma por idiotas.
What an Ugly Year for Manhattan Luxury Condos & Co-ops, But the Market Came Unglued in 2016“It was more drama than any market could withstand as Manhattan sellers started slashing prices.”The luxury housing market in Manhattan didn’t quite descent to the levels seen after the Lehman Brothers blowup, but close, and it totally wiped out the euphoria that had reigned from 2013 into 2015 when some of the most glorious mind-bending global-headline-grabbing deals were signed and touted.Sales of Manhattan condos, co-ops, and townhouses, in terms of signed contracts, with prices of $4 million or more plunged by 31% in 2020, from 2019, to just 645 contracts signed, according to data by Olshan Realty. This was the lowest number of contracts signed since 2011, after having already dropped by 16% in 2019, by 5% in 2018, and by 18% in 2016 – with a 6% false-hope uptick in between in 2017. The Pandemic, which had pulled the rug out from under the market in the spring, just accelerated the process:
Japan to Phase Out Gasoline-Powered Cars, Bucking Toyota ChiefAll new vehicles must be hybrids or fully electric starting in mid-2030s, government says
los caseros rechazan ayudas para la renta de los inquilinos“Me comentó que tardas una hora y media en recopilar y enviar los documentos requeridos por ERAS”, explica Fariss. “Este programa es una farsa publicitaria del alcalde. Él sabía que esto iba a suceder: Si a la gente le das la opción de no trabajar, opta por no hacerlo…como mi casero. Ningún propietario debería tener la opción de rechazar el dinero”.Historias similares han brotado también en otras ciudades del país, como Tulsa (Oklahoma), donde los abogados corporativos han estado recomendando a los propietarios rechazar las ayudas gubernamentales.