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Cita de: senslev en Mayo 16, 2021, 02:50:16 amSomos tan poca cosa...una esfera de tierra y agua junto a una estrella en un rincón de una galaxia y seguimos empeñados en mirarnos el ombligo. Billones de estrellas en la galaxia, billones de galaxias en el Universo. Seguimos sin evolucionar. Imagen incompleta y tendenciosa. Falta Madrid ahí.
Somos tan poca cosa...una esfera de tierra y agua junto a una estrella en un rincón de una galaxia y seguimos empeñados en mirarnos el ombligo. Billones de estrellas en la galaxia, billones de galaxias en el Universo. Seguimos sin evolucionar.
Cita de: R.G.C.I.M. en Mayo 16, 2021, 10:02:31 amYa no tengo ni la más remota idea de qué va a pasar, pero últimamente el bombardeo de saturación de "que viene la inflación " empieza a ser obvio. Como en el 2010.Sds.El euro se rompe, nos iba mejor con la peseta, etc.Un clásico. Odian el dinero. Mejor dicho, odian lo que el dinero representa.
Ya no tengo ni la más remota idea de qué va a pasar, pero últimamente el bombardeo de saturación de "que viene la inflación " empieza a ser obvio. Como en el 2010.Sds.
Cita de: Yupi_Punto en Mayo 16, 2021, 04:02:42 amCita de: senslev en Mayo 16, 2021, 02:50:16 amSomos tan poca cosa...una esfera de tierra y agua junto a una estrella en un rincón de una galaxia y seguimos empeñados en mirarnos el ombligo. Billones de estrellas en la galaxia, billones de galaxias en el Universo. Seguimos sin evolucionar. Imagen incompleta y tendenciosa. Falta Madrid ahí.Pues no ya es que no se vea Madrid, sino que ni siquiera se ve no ya la Tierra, sino el Sistema Solar.Buen intento de seguir con la cantinela tendenciosa, pero no cuela.Pero bueno, si alguien se echa por ésto unas risas, por mí no hay inconveniente.P.S: A todo ésto, ninguna imagen de la Vía Láctea puede ser directa, pues vivimos en ella; es en parte reconstrucción, y en parte extrapolación. Eso, aparte de ser una obviedad, señala algo respecto del debate general del que no sé hasta qué punto son ustedes conscientes...
Esto no iba por Madrid, iba más bien por la falta de perspectiva en general. Una opinión como cualquier otra.
Will the Productivity Revolution Be Postponed?US President Joe Biden clearly has bet on faster productivity growth to pay for his $4.1 trillion American Jobs Plan and American Families Plan. But history suggests that any acceleration of productivity growth is likely to be delayed – perhaps by decades.BERKELEY – Productivity growth changes everything. In advanced economies with a slowly growing labor force and already-large capital stock, it typically accounts for the majority of output growth.This means that boosting productivity is the most direct and immediate way to improve economic performance. For example, were annual growth in total factor productivity in the United States to rise to 2%, from the 0.5% experienced in the five years before COVID-19, the GDP growth rate would double from the 1.5% forecast by the International Monetary Fund for 2023-26.Such rapid productivity growth is not unprecedented. It would almost exactly match that of the US business sector between 1996 and 2004, the so-called New Economy years when innovative digital processes were adopted in wholesaling, retailing, and finance.Imagine all the good things that would follow if productivity grew at such a rate once again. Incomes would double in one generation, not two. Governments would have more revenue and smaller budget deficits. Growing the denominator of the debt-to-GDP ratio would make it possible to stabilize and even reduce the debt burden. Of course, the problem is that we have been unable to replicate the fast productivity growth of the New Economy period.Will COVID-19 now change this? Optimists such as McKinsey & Company point to the rise of remote work as evidence that firms are organizing their operations more efficiently. Efforts have been renewed to automate operations, such as in meatpacking, long resistant to mechanization. And the pandemic has spurred a shift to online retail transactions, the rise of telehealth, and the embrace of technology even by my own hidebound sector, education. All of this holds out hope of greater efficiency.But other trends are more worrisome. Investments in digital technology are concentrated in large firms. Small firms are falling behind, and greater dominance by large firms will mean less competition and less pressure on the market leaders to innovate.With herd immunity from COVID-19 increasingly unlikely, firms in the hospitality sector will face permanently higher costs. If your hometown has reopened indoor dining, you will have noticed that restaurants are spacing their tables more widely and serving fewer meals, despite renting the same square footage as before.Scientific advances – epitomized by the rapid development of RNA-based COVID-19 vaccines, but extending also to metamaterials, human genomics, nanotechnologies, and artificial intelligence – are the most fundamental reasons for optimism. But the most fundamental reason for pessimism is that these advances will most likely take years to show up in the productivity statistics.Consider the aftermath of the 1918-20 influenza pandemic, which came on the heels of advances in the internal combustion engine and Henry Ford’s development of the assembly line. It followed the invention of the superheterodyne receiver, which enabled the Radio Corporation of America, the leading high-tech company of the era, to sell radio sets that could pick up signals from longer distances. It arrived after chemical processes developed during World War I that lowered fertilizer costs, to the benefit of the agricultural sector.But while there was some acceleration of productivity growth in the 1920s, the full impact was felt only in the 1930s. Firms used downtime during the Great Depression to reorganize production, and those least capable of doing so exited the market. Government invested in roads, allowing the nascent trucking industry to boost productivity in distribution. But more than a decade first had to pass before the innovations in question – dating from the 1910s –showed up in the productivity statistics.This extended delay suggests two important lessons. First, some lag is likely before faster productivity growth materializes, and budgeters and central banks should plan accordingly. Second, government can take steps to ensure that the acceleration commences sooner rather than later. In the 1930s, this meant investing in roads and bridges in order to encourage trucking. Today, it means investing in broadband so that the efficiency advantages of digitization accrue to the entire economy.US President Joe Biden clearly has bet on faster productivity growth. This is the only way to square the additional $4.1 trillion of spending in his American Jobs Plan and American Families Plan with an economy that is at most $1 trillion smaller than it would have been absent the pandemic. Faster productivity growth is the only reasonable basis for dismissing worries about economic overheating and inflation.It would be counterproductive, obviously, to curtail infrastructure spending, because this would only worsen the prospects for productivity growth in the short run, or spending on early childhood education, which would similarly damage prospects in the long run. But the more concerned you are about a delay before faster productivity growth materializes, the more strenuously you should insist that Biden’s spending plans be financed with taxes in order to avert the overheating scenario.
Ya me he re-adaptado y re-enamorado de Madrid. Pedazo de la España en que nací. Pensaba que me costaría más, pero la cabra tira al monte.
Esto no iba por Madrid, iba más bien por la falta de perspectiva en general. Una opinión como cualquier otra.Cita de: wanderer en Mayo 16, 2021, 11:50:13 amPues no ya es que no se vea Madrid, sino que ni siquiera se ve no ya la Tierra, sino el Sistema Solar.Buen intento de seguir con la cantinela tendenciosa, pero no cuela.Pero bueno, si alguien se echa por ésto unas risas, por mí no hay inconveniente.P.S: A todo ésto, ninguna imagen de la Vía Láctea puede ser directa, pues vivimos en ella; es en parte reconstrucción, y en parte extrapolación. Eso, aparte de ser una obviedad, señala algo respecto del debate general del que no sé hasta qué punto son ustedes conscientes...
Pues no ya es que no se vea Madrid, sino que ni siquiera se ve no ya la Tierra, sino el Sistema Solar.Buen intento de seguir con la cantinela tendenciosa, pero no cuela.Pero bueno, si alguien se echa por ésto unas risas, por mí no hay inconveniente.P.S: A todo ésto, ninguna imagen de la Vía Láctea puede ser directa, pues vivimos en ella; es en parte reconstrucción, y en parte extrapolación. Eso, aparte de ser una obviedad, señala algo respecto del debate general del que no sé hasta qué punto son ustedes conscientes...
Wanderer: No me habia enterado de que se habia roto, o que la habiamos estirao???. Vamos, es que no me entero de naa...Pues como me toques la vena de que es la realidad, que se puede ver, que es ver, el existencialismo y demas.... te veo saliendo corriendo."this is a pipe"... no digo mas, "this is the milk way"..... Aunque tu lo vieras (tu personalmente) desde fuera, seria eso realmente?... o lo que tus sentidos transmiten a tu cerebro haciendote creer que es la realidad, a pesar de estar "sesgada", ya que tus sentidos no pueden captar "la realidad" completamente, ya que los sentidos tienen limitaciones fisicas?. No me toques la moral....Ver madrid en la foto SOLO es una pregunta de la resolucion.... como si quieres ver mi ........ pie.Cita de: senslev en Mayo 16, 2021, 13:21:32 pmEsto no iba por Madrid, iba más bien por la falta de perspectiva en general. Una opinión como cualquier otra.Cita de: wanderer en Mayo 16, 2021, 11:50:13 amPues no ya es que no se vea Madrid, sino que ni siquiera se ve no ya la Tierra, sino el Sistema Solar.Buen intento de seguir con la cantinela tendenciosa, pero no cuela.Pero bueno, si alguien se echa por ésto unas risas, por mí no hay inconveniente.P.S: A todo ésto, ninguna imagen de la Vía Láctea puede ser directa, pues vivimos en ella; es en parte reconstrucción, y en parte extrapolación. Eso, aparte de ser una obviedad, señala algo respecto del debate general del que no sé hasta qué punto son ustedes conscientes...
Cita de: siempretarde en Mayo 16, 2021, 17:26:50 pmWanderer: No me habia enterado de que se habia roto, o que la habiamos estirao???. Vamos, es que no me entero de naa...Pues como me toques la vena de que es la realidad, que se puede ver, que es ver, el existencialismo y demas.... te veo saliendo corriendo."this is a pipe"... no digo mas, "this is the milk way"..... Aunque tu lo vieras (tu personalmente) desde fuera, seria eso realmente?... o lo que tus sentidos transmiten a tu cerebro haciendote creer que es la realidad, a pesar de estar "sesgada", ya que tus sentidos no pueden captar "la realidad" completamente, ya que los sentidos tienen limitaciones fisicas?. No me toques la moral....Ver madrid en la foto SOLO es una pregunta de la resolucion.... como si quieres ver mi ........ pie.Cita de: senslev en Mayo 16, 2021, 13:21:32 pmEsto no iba por Madrid, iba más bien por la falta de perspectiva en general. Una opinión como cualquier otra.Cita de: wanderer en Mayo 16, 2021, 11:50:13 amPues no ya es que no se vea Madrid, sino que ni siquiera se ve no ya la Tierra, sino el Sistema Solar.Buen intento de seguir con la cantinela tendenciosa, pero no cuela.Pero bueno, si alguien se echa por ésto unas risas, por mí no hay inconveniente.P.S: A todo ésto, ninguna imagen de la Vía Láctea puede ser directa, pues vivimos en ella; es en parte reconstrucción, y en parte extrapolación. Eso, aparte de ser una obviedad, señala algo respecto del debate general del que no sé hasta qué punto son ustedes conscientes...Lo que señalas, es en parte lo que quería ver si alguien de daba cuenta.Lo mollar, es que es tremendamente difícil ser objetivo en el análisis de una realidad de la cual uno forma parte intrínseca; si además, no hay modo viable "de situarse fuera", pues mucho peor.
Why Wage Inflation Will AccelerateThe Fed has created trillions out of thin air to boost the speculative wealth of Wall Street, but it can't print experienced workers willing to work for low wages.The Federal Reserve is reassuring us daily that inflation is temporary, but allow me to assure you that wage inflation is just getting started and will accelerate rapidly. As I noted yesterday, the Fed can create currency out of thin and funnel it to financiers, but the Fed can't create experienced, motivated workers out of thin air or entrepreneurs with the chops to launch and sustain real-world enterprises.Let's start with a funny little thing called competition, which has been pushing wages down for the past 50 years. Globalization means you're competing with every other worker on the planet for jobs in tradable goods and services, and mass immigration and relatively high birth rates means there have been more potential workers than secure jobs.Competition for paid work has been wonderful for global corporations, whose profits have soared five-fold thanks to labor arbitrage, also known as offshoring, where companies can pick and choose locales with the lowest cost labor.There's also been fierce competition for campaign contributions, as the cost of securing re-election has soared into the millions or tens of millions for congressional seats, and the bottom 90% can't compete with the top 0.1% in terms of lavishing millions on politicians who have become keenly attuned to the "needs" of their corporate handlers.Thanks to global labor arbitrage and the outright purchase of our pay-to-play political system, capital has skimmed $50 trillion from labor over the past 45 years. It's all quantified in the RAND Corporation's 2020 report Trends in Income From 1975 to 2018 that documents the $50 trillion that's been transferred to the Financial Aristocracy from the bottom 90% of American households in the past 45 years.Time magazine's article The Top 1% of Americans Have Taken $50 Trillion From the Bottom 90% -- And That's Made the U.S. Less Secure lays out the key role played by our political leadership:CitarNo, this upward redistribution of income, wealth, and power wasn't inevitable; it was a choice-- a direct result of the trickle-down policies we chose to implement since 1975.We chose to cut taxes on billionaires and to deregulate the financial industry. We chose to allow CEOs to manipulate share prices through stock buybacks, and to lavishly reward themselves with the proceeds. We chose to permit giant corporations, through mergers and acquisitions, to accumulate the vast monopoly power necessary to dictate both prices charged and wages paid. We chose to erode the minimum wage and the overtime threshold and the bargaining power of labor. For four decades, we chose to elect political leaders who put the material interests of the rich and powerful above those of the American people.So now The Bill for America's $50 Trillion Gluttony of Inequality Is Overdue (9/21/21). Consider the minimum wage as a reflection of the structural stripmining of labor. According to the BLS inflation calculator, the $1.65 per hour minimum wage I earned in 1970 on Dole's pineapple plantation now equals $11.66 per hour--hence the calls for $12 per hour minimum wage.But we all know the Consumer Price Index (CPI) has been gamed for decades to understate inflation, and in terms of the goods and services that could be bought with $1.65 in 1970, it would take at least $18 in today's money to buy the same basket of goods and services--if you include real-world prices for healthcare, childcare, higher education, rent, etc.In terms of competition, the worm has turned, as the number of people who are competent, reliable and willing to work for lousy pay has dwindled. While our educational system was busy trying to make every student into an engineer, coder or at least a college graduate, all the real-world skills needed to keep the real world functioning were given short shrift and denigrated in the media as unworthy compared to the fantasy of coding something and selling it to Facebook, Apple or Google for millions.The discussion about the decline of competence and reliability is one worth pursuing, but for now the point is that the decline is real, and so the competition for the competent, reliable and willing to work is heating up.As I explained yesterday in The 'Take This Job and Shove It' Recession, a consequential percentage of the workforce is re-thinking trading their lives for Neofeudal Debt-Serfdom. Workers in all sectors and pay scales are seeking ways to escape the meaninglessness and dead-end nature of "work" in a neofeudal economy that taxes productive labor but lets Big Tech escape taxes and regulation.There are two other dynamics in play in wages ratcheting higher: one is that wages, like taxes, ratchet higher but resist dropping back to previous levels. Once someone earns $15 an hour, they're less inclined to accept $12 an hour, just as local governments are never inclined to lower property taxes, excise taxes, etc. to previous levels.Another is that when you have to pay one warehouse worker more money to fill the position, word gets out and every other worker in the warehouse will demand the same wage as the new hire. This is how pricing on the margins of the labor market ends up increasing the wages of the entire workforce.Corporations love to demand everyone keep their salary secret to avoid this ratcheting up from the margins (and mask various biases in pay scales), but the political winds protecting corporations at all costs are finally shifting, and it's going to be more difficult to retain workers at $12 an hour after they heard the new employee is getting $15 an hour for the same work.If we can risk a moment of honesty here, let's stipulate that real-world inflation has gutted the purchasing power of wages for 50 years while capital rigged the system to skim $50 trillion from those who work rather than speculate. A consequential percentage of the potential workforce simply doesn't have what it takes to work full-time in demanding jobs, and the blame-game about why this is so is fun but pointless.An increasingly consequential percentage of the potential workforce is opting out of working for Corporate America or the government, preferring lower earnings and fewer hours.Another consequential percentage of the potential workforce has gone on informal strike and refuses to work for wages so low that they're not even close to a living wage.All of these dynamics will accelerate wage "inflation," Corporate Media-Speak for a long overdue shift back from capital to labor. The Fed has created trillions out of thin air to boost the speculative wealth of Wall Street, but it can't print experienced workers willing to work for low wages.Now that McMansions are unaffordable, people are giving up their McMansion Dreams. And once people give up McMansion Dreams of debt-funded overconsumption, they also give up debt-serfdom and wage slavery.
No, this upward redistribution of income, wealth, and power wasn't inevitable; it was a choice-- a direct result of the trickle-down policies we chose to implement since 1975.We chose to cut taxes on billionaires and to deregulate the financial industry. We chose to allow CEOs to manipulate share prices through stock buybacks, and to lavishly reward themselves with the proceeds. We chose to permit giant corporations, through mergers and acquisitions, to accumulate the vast monopoly power necessary to dictate both prices charged and wages paid. We chose to erode the minimum wage and the overtime threshold and the bargaining power of labor. For four decades, we chose to elect political leaders who put the material interests of the rich and powerful above those of the American people.