Tema: PPCC-Pisitófilos Creditófagos-Invierno 2022

[Derby]

Un poco de humor británico...

https://www.cityam.com/brexit-amber-rudd-disaster/

Brexit supporters admit leaving EU was a ‘disaster’ after ‘a drink or two’, ex home sec Amber Rudd says

Former home secretary Amber Rudd has claimed that some Brexiteers, after “a drink or two”, will admit that the decision to leave the EU has been a “disaster”.

(...) She told the podcast that some former backers of Brexit now believe it has been a “disaster”.

She said that in a “quiet moment – perhaps they’ve had a drink or two – they will admit it’s been a disaster”.

“‘But of course it wasn’t the Brexit I wanted’. So they still feel legitimate to campaign and vote for Brexit. ‘But this Brexit is not the one I wanted’.”

The former senior Conservative, who was also work and pensions secretary until she dramatically quit Boris Johnson’s cabinet in 2019, said she feels “abandoned by the party as far as those of us who can see the truth about Brexit is concerned”.

“One of the reasons I’m not in politics, and a lot of my former colleagues aren’t in politics anymore, is because we can’t get up and say Brexit is a success. You have to be able to say Brexit is a success to be a spokesperson for the Conservative Party.”

[Derby]

Un resumen de lo que venimos comentando hace años...

https://deflation.com/news/disinflation-underway-even-with-robust-jobs-report/

Disinflation Underway – Even with Robust Jobs Report

(...) As Elliott Wave International sees it, outright deflation may be in the cards.

This is from the December 2022 Elliott Wave Theorist:

[A]bsolute M2 has been declining on a month-by-month basis for the first time in many decades, probably since the 1930s or 1940s. This trend is deflationary.

In the same issue of the Theorist, Robert Prechter also points to the property market:

Do you know what the underlying problem in the property market is? It is that people have been investing in property. … Houses are ultimately consumption items, like food, although they perish at a slower rate. “Investing” in houses causes their prices to rise beyond normal consumption value. When the investing stops, the trend reverses. That’s what happened this year. It is early in the downtrend, but if you can’t get out, it may as well be later.

[Derby]

Y hoy vuelve Powell a la carga (it has a long way to go. These are the very early stages.) y con firmeza (It’s actually our job)... 

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/02/07/fed-chief-powell-says-the-the-disinflationary-process-has-begun-but-has-a-long-way-to-go.html

Fed Chief Powell says the disinflationary process has begun, but has a long way to go

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said Wednesday that inflation is beginning to ease though he expects it to be a long process.

“The disinflationary process, the process of getting inflation down, has begun and it’s begun in the goods sector, which is about a quarter of our economy,” the central bank chief said during an event in Washington, D.C. “But it has a long way to go. These are the very early stages.”

Powell spoke Wednesday in a question-and-answer session at the Economic Club of Washington, D.C.

Markets turned positive as Powell spoke as investors are hoping the Fed soon will halt the aggressive interest rate hikes it began last year. At its most recent meeting, which concluded six days ago, the Fed raised its benchmark interest rate a quarter percentage point, the eighth increase since March 2022, to a target range of 4.5%-4.75%.

In this remarks Tuesday, he gave no indication of when the hikes will stop, and said it probably will take into 2024 before inflation gets to a point where the Fed feels comfortable. The central bank targets 2% inflation, and it’s currently running well in excess of that by multiple measures.

“We expect 2023 to be a year of significant declines in inflation. It’s actually our job to make sure that that’s the case,” he said. “My guess is it will take certainly into not just this year, but next year to get down close to 2%.”

Y no, no va a ser "smooth"...modo aterriza como puedas?

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/fed-chair-powell-says-disinflationary-process-has-begun-in-the-us-economy-175915718.html

Fed Chair Powell says 'disinflationary process has begun' in the US economy

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said Tuesday the "disinflationary process" in the U.S. economy has begun, and said additional rate hikes will likely be necessary to bring inflation back to its 2% target.

Speaking in an interview with David Rubenstein at the Economic Club of Washington, D.C., Powell reiterated his comments from last week regarding inflation pressures, saying, "The disinflationary process has begun. It has begun in the goods sector, which is about 25% of the economy."

Powell said this process, "is going to take quite a bit of time, and is not going to be smooth."

"We will likely need to do additional rate increases," Powell said, as the Fed works to bring inflation back to its target.

Asked about Friday's stronger-than-expected January jobs report, Powell said the strong labor market, "shows you why we think [disinflation] will be a process that takes a significant period of time."

"The labor market is extraordinarily strong," Powell added, noting it is "good inflation has started to come down with a strong labor market."

Still, Powell's comments did not suggest Friday's strong jobs report would change the central bank's approach to future rate increases. As Powell spoke, stocks rallied to session highs.

Powell's comments come less than a week after the Federal Reserve's latest policy meeting, which saw the central bank raise interest rates by another 0.25%. This marked the second-straight meeting the Fed slowed its pace of interest rate increases.

In December, the central bank raised rates by 0.50%; in each of the prior four meetings, the Fed had raised rates by 0.75%. In a press conference following that decision, Powell emphasized signs of "disinflation" are starting to emerge in the economy.

https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/feds-powell-says-blowout-jobs-report-shows-inflation-fight-has-ways-go

Fed's Powell says blowout jobs report shows inflation fight has a ways to go

"This process is likely to take quite a bit of time. It’s not going to be, we don’t think, smooth. It’s probably going to be bumpy," Powell said during a question-and-answer event at the Economic Club in Washington, D.C.

[Derby]

https://www.morningstar.com/news/marketwatch/20230207300/us-could-be-heading-into-period-of-transitory-disinflation-traders-and-strategists-say

U.S. could be heading into period of 'transitory disinflation,' traders and strategists say

Hopes for a further decline in U.S. inflation this year are giving way to a risk seen in some corners of the financial market that any improvement in price gains will turn out to be fleeting. Strategists at JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM) and BofA Securities, along with Peter Schiff of Euro Pacific Asset Management, are among those who have attached recent signs of disinflation to the word "transitory," borrowing the phrase used by Federal Reserve officials in 2021 to describe inflation and which turned out to be wrong. Inflation, as measured by the headline annual rate on the consumer price index, has been on a steady decline for six straight months -- falling to 6.5% in December from a 9.1% peak in June.Friday's blockbuster data -- which showed that the U.S. added a stronger-than-expected 517,000 jobs in January, despite a string of eight Fed interest rate increases since last March -- has thrown an unexpected kink into the narrative of steadily declining inflation. Two senior Fed officials this week said the central bank needs to raise rates higher to subdue inflation, while traders adjusted their expectations toward the greater likelihood of a 5%-plus fed funds rate by May."This is the only story for 2023: transitory disinflation," said Gang Hu, a trader of Treasury inflation-protected securities at New York hedge fund WinShore Capital Partners. "The labor market is very tight and this makes the inflation story very, very complicated."(...)

[Derby]

https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/us-trade-deficit-record-2022

US trade deficit hit record in 2022

Trade gap rises to $948.1 billion as the U.S. continues to depend on imports to meet domestic demand

https://www.ft.com/content/ab3575d1-1d71-4eb5-9717-ac94c680efa5

The trade deficit with China grew by $29.4bn to $382.9bn in 2022, despite relations that became increasingly strained as the year went on. Imports from China increased by $32bn to $537bn, while goods and services sent to China went up by $2.4bn to $154bn.

[sudden and sharp]

NO DATA ===> NO BAD DATA

El colapso de un indicador que no caía desde hace 90 años hace saltar las alarmas en la economía de EEUU
https://www.eleconomista.es/economia/noticias/12139412/02/23/El-colapso-de-un-indicador-que-no-caia-desde-hace-90-anos-hace-saltar-las-alarmas-en-la-economia-de-EEUU.html
 -   La Reserva Federal solo ofrece datos del agregado monetario M2 hasta 1960
 -   Se cree que la última vez que el M2 se redujo de forma interanual fue en la Gran Depresión
 -   La caída del M2 suele ser consecuente con una caída de la inflación y la economía

[sudden and sharp]

Mucho me parece pero bueno...

Un catalán paga un 66% más que un madrileño al comprar vivienda de segunda mano
https://www.eleconomista.es/economia/noticias/12139189/02/23/Un-catalan-paga-un-66-mas-que-un-madrileno-al-comprar-vivienda-de-segunda-mano.html
 -   Foment del Treball creará un grupo de expertos para proponer una reforma fiscal catalana
 -   Espera presentar las conclusiones a finales de octubre



Ya nos contaréis... De ya os digo que en Madrid la cosa está poco menos que imposible.

[wanderer]

Mucho me parece pero bueno...

Un catalán paga un 66% más que un madrileño al comprar vivienda de segunda mano
https://www.eleconomista.es/economia/noticias/12139189/02/23/Un-catalan-paga-un-66-mas-que-un-madrileno-al-comprar-vivienda-de-segunda-mano.html
 -   Foment del Treball creará un grupo de expertos para proponer una reforma fiscal catalana
 -   Espera presentar las conclusiones a finales de octubre



Ya nos contaréis... De ya os digo que en Madrid la cosa está poco menos que imposible.

No hay que quedarse sólo con la cabecera:

Cuando alguien compra una vivienda de segunda mano en Cataluña, paga un 66% más que en Madrid por el Impuesto de Transmisiones Patrimoniales, que en Cataluña tiene un tipo del 10% (11% para viviendas de más de un millón de euros), frente al 6% en la comunidad madrileña.

Y ya puestos, Madrit ens roba...

[saturno]

Creo que lo que están pidiendo (insinuando) es que la única salida, hasta que no se construyan 500 millones de viviendas para alquiler, y aún pondrán un pero, es que el estado se haga cargo de una parte de la renta.

Estamos tocando fondo, señores. ¡Hablan obscenamente de sacrificar a toda una generación!, con precios inmobiliarios que reconocen que son incompatibles con la economía ordinaria, «peajes inasumbiles», dicen. Qué pedazo de caraduras.

(...)Es un editorial-opio para ellos... en el, sin querer, advierten a la sociedad de que, como no intervengan las autoridades, esto va a ser un infierno.]

Yo lo veo como Negrule: quieren una intervención a su favor. Y amenazan con una una toma de rehenes en toda regla. La guerra se recrudece.

Coincide con que la banca está cerrando el grifo de la financiación a toda velocidad. Ni los brokers están consiguiendo sacar la financiación ni a tiros. Así que el alquiler a precios "inasumibles" debe mantenerse como sea.

Claro que el 80 % de marujos va a que los impuestos de los bichos les paguen sus rentas.

Claro que el 10% de grandes tenedores  está replegando velas. Están ya trabajando para montar el negocio que viene,

Claro.



¿Y saben qué? Es exactamente eso lo que va a pasar,

La materia prima de los segundos, la van a poner los primeros:

Para esos "grandes tenedores", se denomina (traducido) "Empresas de vivienda de renta moderada". Con alquiler a partir de 100 euros, vitalicio y 100 m2. Y reforma integral de la vivienda con cada cambio de inquilino para ponerla a las normas ambientales

¿Y los caseros marujos?

¿Los marujos? Pues mientras tanto, a poner sus viviendas a las normas, a pagar los impuestos de propiedad y a medida que avance el proceso, a competir con las viviendas de renta moderada, para luego no poder exigir nada más que 100 euros,

Es el mercado (idiota.) pero aún puedes montarte al nuevo modelo del "capitalismo popular" que viene ahora,

Dice el marujo ; ¿Cómo que 100 euros? Antes lo.... 

¡Trato hecho! -- exclama el Gran Tenedor, Aqui me firmas  un papel con un montón de ceros, del que te pago ahora pongamos la 1/12 parte de ceros, y el resto, pues como prefieras,  acciones, participaciones o en la renta el alquiler homologado de categoria "prime" que alcanza, si si, hasta 500 mensuales, o.... o....

Vamos, como los bonos del Estado, ya ves que rentan más que tu pisito destartalado,

En cambio, yo estoy homologada, acreditada, soy como el Estado, Y fíjate que doy alojamiento a toda la plantilla del Ayuntamiento, en particular la que supervisa la admisión de inquilinos en mis viviendas, y también a concejales en los pisos del Barrio de Salamanca, ya me entiendes.... Tu rentabilidad la tienes asegurada, una renta segura para tu jubilación, Hala, firma aquí,


Así que ya saben qué va a pasar con los caseros marujos,

Los demás, los que no entran en el caso de los marujos o el 80% de caseros:

Organicense,

Ya saben cómo funciona el cerebro de la mayoría natural, Eso no va a cambiar. También es así vuestro cerebro  Sólo desaparecerá la "himbersion", El impuesto privado con el Pisito también puede desaparecer, pero sólo cuando en los Ayuntamientos se haga limpieza de los parásitos que ahora mismo están ocupándose de "modernizar" el impuesto privado, para reconvertirlo en el nuevo "capitalismo popular",

Por así decirlo, todos aquellos que están preparando lo que apuesto llamarán "la democratización del impuesto público". Es decir Vivienda de renta moderada, privada, pero regulada por la administración pública.

Así que voten, Conquisten, ocupen sus administraciones. Manifiesten. Reclamen y conquisten derechos. Exijan igualar derechos de ocupación con el derecho de propiedad o por ejemplo la adopción de un régimen fiscal sobre la renta de las parcelas  inmuebles como explica muy bien el artículo sobre Henry Georges,

Y diviértanse, Es la sal de la vida.

-----
(anécdota divertida en el súper: me paro para dejar pasar a un señor mayor, bien vestido de ciudad, que viene de otra caja cargado con bolsas, pero yo cargado más que él. El hombre se para, y me hace una seña de que pase delante de él. Me niego con un gesto de absurdo ostentoso (estilo "de ninguna manera"). Oigo la cajera reirse y nos dice que como no nos decidamos, vamos a bloquear el pasillo. Repite el gesto. Detrás suyo, otra dama de su generación que terminaba de pagar empieza a sonreirse, Entonces el otro se  exclama, en voz alta: "¡Yo ya soy viejo y hay que dejar paso a los más jóvenes!". Me descolocó, tuve una especie de déjà-vu pero no reaccioné para contestar a tiempo lo que inmediatamente vislumbré ; -- ¡De ninguna manera, caballero, veo que es Ud un boomer genuino, pero no es propio de esta situación que Ud utilice aquel eslógan de su juventud!" -- Depués de pensarlo, me alegro no haberlo soltado. A esa hora, la mayoría de los que estaban en las filas eran  efectivamente eso: boomers genuinos. Hice un gesto cortés, cogí las bolsas y salí delante de él. Los que vi sonriendo enseñando los dientes eran efectivamente todos  globalmente de su misma edad. A los demás se les veia divertidos, pero pensativos para sus adentros,  Sospecho -- estoy seguro -- que con la misma reflexión que me hice. Todos habían recordado o conocido aquel famoso eslógan de los años 70,)

[pollo]

Department of Justice Opens Investigation Into Real Estate Tech Company Accused of Collusion with Landlords

The DOJ will examine whether RealPage helped landlords coordinate rent increases. Questions also swirl around a 2017 merger deal with its largest competitor.

The Department of Justice’s Antitrust Division has opened an investigation into whether rent-setting software made by a Texas-based real estate tech company is facilitating collusion among landlords, according to a source with knowledge of the matter.

The inquiry is being launched as questions have arisen about a 2017 merger between RealPage and its largest pricing competitor. The source told ProPublica some DOJ staff raised concerns about the merger but were overridden by political appointees of former President Donald Trump.

Congressional leaders have pushed for an investigation into RealPage in three letters to the DOJ and the Federal Trade Commission, which were sent after a ProPublica report on the software’s use in mid-October.

The letters raised concerns that RealPage’s pricing software could be pushing rents above competitive levels and allowing big landlords to coordinate their pricing in violation of federal antitrust laws.(...)

Poco a poco van apareciendo más signos reales de la inmorrepresión.

A ver si de esta va la vencida.

[Cadavre Exquis]

https://twitter.com/JaimePalomera/status/1621404856031256576

Amsterdam homeowners fined €22,000 for violating city's buy-to-let ban

2023.02.01

An apartment for sale in Amsterdam Oost. 7 October 2022 - Credit: NL Times / NL Times

The city of Amsterdam issued six fines to homeowners for violating the partial ban on investors buying housing for the purpose of renting it out. The homeowners were each fined an average of about 22,000 euros, the city said in a statement on Wednesday. Those who continue to violate the policy on owner-occupied homes can be subject to further penalties of 43,000 euros.

Amsterdam implemented the new rule on April 1, which said that homes with an official valuation of 512,000 euros or less cannot be rented out for a period of four years after purchase. That amount rose to 533,000 euros at the start of the year. The regulation is meant to keep investors from snatching up housing stock, effectively cutting off first-time buyers from the market while charging exorbitant rental prices.

"At the end of 2022, we checked whether buyers were complying with this," the city said. The city referenced four specific examples, including a landlord in West who charged two foreign students a total of 2,000 euros per month, and a 2,000 euro deposit, with the agency involved in the deal adding another 2,000 euro finders fee. Such agency fees are also illegal, the city said. Another landlord rented a a small two-room property in Nieuw-West for 2,000 euros per month with a 3,000 euro deposit. In both cases, the rent was exclusive of utilities fees.

"In two illegally rented homes in Centrum and in Oost, the tenants of the illegally rented homes were promised that they would be allowed to buy the home after three years. For this, the tenants paid a guarantee of 27,000 euros and 30,000 euros respectively, which was to be be deducted from the sale price at the time of purchase."

All five of the biggest cities in the Netherlands have some form of buy-to-let ban, as do many other municipalities. The bans were allowed to be created after a change in Dutch law took effect on January 1 allowing cities to designate areas where investors could be prevented from buying homes to serve as rental properties. By August, 127 municipalities either had property speculation laws in place or were in the process of creating them. That amounts to over one-third of all municipalities.

Amsterdam's rules includes some exceptions. Homes may be rented out to immediate family members, or may be placed on the rental market on a temporary basis when the owner needs to leave for certain specific periods of time, like for international travel and work abroad. The city requires homeowners to apply for a permit in such cases.

Saludos.

[Cadavre Exquis]

https://www.pressreader.com/spain/expansion-nacional/20230208/page/31/textview

Vivienda: la compraventa se hundió un 18% en la recta final del año

https://www.eleconomista.es/vivienda-inmobiliario/noticias/12138515/02/23/La-compraventa-de-vivienda-logra-la-mayor-cifra-en-15-anos-pese-al-pinchazo-del-ultimo-trimestre.html

Saludos.

[Cadavre Exquis]

https://www.expansion.com/opinion/2023/02/08/63e2ab69e5fdea576c8b45a6.html

https://www.expansion.com/economia/2023/02/08/63e29e46e5fdea767f8b45f4.html

Saludos.

[Cadavre Exquis]

https://www.expansion.com/mercados/2023/02/07/63e22a99468aeb78268b45ba.html

https://www.expansion.com/mercados/2023/02/08/63e2eaa9468aeb590b8b45bb.html

Saludos.

[Cadavre Exquis]

https://www.expansion.com/mercados/2023/02/07/63e294d0e5fdea941a8b4622.html

Saludos.