PPCC: Pisitófilos Creditófagos. Otoño 2023

[Benzino Napaloni]

ÚLTIMA HORA | Se desploma el mercado inmobiliario: cae un 23% la compraventa de viviendas en España

Se está desplomando el mercado de la vivienda en España: -23,7%, acelera la caída y suma 8 meses de retroceso. No lo está notando el precio que está estancado en el desplome. Todo esto hace que caiga la contra-venta. La oferta se está contrayendo, provoca que en España suba el precio. Hasta un total de 44 mil operaciones, la cifra más baja de este mes desde la cifra de 2020.

 

Bajan los hactibos y los mercaos, sube igualmente el precio.


El medio que ha perpetrado esto es una porquería, pero reconozco que da para echarse unas risas . Creo que les iría mejor anunciando los próximo fichajes del Real Madrid.

[Derby]

ÚLTIMA HORA | Se desploma el mercado inmobiliario: cae un 23% la compraventa de viviendas en España

Se está desplomando el mercado de la vivienda en España: -23,7%, acelera la caída y suma 8 meses de retroceso. No lo está notando el precio que está estancado en el desplome. Todo esto hace que caiga la contra-venta. La oferta se está contrayendo, provoca que en España suba el precio. Hasta un total de 44 mil operaciones, la cifra más baja de este mes desde la cifra de 2020.

 

Bajan los hactibos y los mercaos, sube igualmente el precio.


El medio que ha perpetrado esto es una porquería, pero reconozco que da para echarse unas risas . Creo que les iría mejor anunciando los próximo fichajes del Real Madrid.

Es un pequeño bache  ya verás como de aquí nada esto va para arriba. Para ir haciendo boca...

https://cincodias.elpais.com/mercados-financieros/2023-11-17/fuera-del-universo-euribor-los-tipos-ya-estan-bajando-si-bien-en-silencio.html

Fuera del universo euríbor los tipos ya están bajando, si bien en silencio

El recorte en los intereses de la deuda a largo plazo, iniciado en Estados Unidos, recorta los intereses para las emisiones privadas

[Derby]

https://www.pymnts.com/europe-3/2023/ecb-president-christine-lagarde-says-eu-needs-capital-markets-union/

ECB President Christine Lagarde Says EU Needs Capital Markets Union

European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde said the European Union (EU) needs a “European SEC” that will replace the region’s currently fragmented supervision with a more top-down approach like that of the United States Securities and Exchange Commission.

This is necessary because the EU faces capital markets challenges on the scale of those faced by the U.S. when it was working to build railroads that would boost the nation’s economic potential, Lagarde said Friday (Nov. 17) in a speech delivered at the European Banking Congress in Frankfurt, Germany.

The EU is facing “a new set of efforts that will require a generational effort to finance,” and this can only be achieved with a new capital markets union (CMU), Lagarde said in the speech.

These efforts are needed to confront deglobalization that is seeing the global economy break up into competing blocs, demographic changes that are leading to a continuing decline in the working age population in the euro area, and the need for decarbonization to offset climate change, Lagarde said.

Addressing these challenges will require a “massive investment” in new supply chains, digital technologies to boost productivity and a green transition, she added.

The European Commission (EC) estimates that the digital transition will require 125 billion euros per year until 2030, and the green transition will need 620 billion euros per year, Lagarde said.

“Just like the United States in the 19th century, it is clear we cannot rely on our existing framework to finance this investment,” Lagarde said in the speech.

Europe’s capital markets remain fragmented, with its bond markets three times smaller than the U.S. and its venture capital five times smaller, she added.

This has left small- to medium-sized businesses (SMBs) in the region unable to access the financing they need, and banks unable to finance riskier loans, Lagarde said.

“Creating a European SEC, for example by extending the powers of ESMA [European Securities and Markets Authority], could be the answer,” Lagarde said. “It would need a broad mandate, including direct supervision, to mitigate systemic risks posed by large cross-border firms and market infrastructures such as EU central counterparties.”

Credit standards have tightened across Europe, reflecting an uncertain economic environment, PYMNTS reported in February.

https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/key/date/2023/html/ecb.sp231117~88389f194b.en.html

[Derby]

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/11/17/germany-approves-financial-reforms-to-boost-its-tech-industry.html

Germany approves financial reforms to help its tech industry compete with Silicon Valley

*Germany on Friday approved a litany of changes to its rules for stock-based compensation at tech startups, listing of companies and taxation.

*Under the new rules, taxes on employees’ stock options will be deferred until the point of sale, so that staff aren’t faced with the prospect of being taxed on their shares as soon as they receive them.

*The scope of the plan will also be widened so that more growth companies can benefit.

Germany on Friday approved a package of key reforms to its capital markets frameworks to help its technology industry compete with Silicon Valley.

The reforms, which are expected to come into effect on Jan. 1, 2024, will usher in a litany of changes to Germany’s frameworks for stock-based compensation at startups, listing of companies and taxation.

The reforms, which have been in the works for sometime, had been widely expected.

Some of the major changes will be to employee stock ownership plans, which allow companies to hand a slice of the business to their employees.

Martin Mignot, a partner at Index Ventures who has pushed for reform to stock options policies in Europe to improve tech employee retention, said that previously the laws were “disadvantageous for employees and a really unfair policy for everyone.”

“There was a formal ESOP plan in law in Germany but it was just so cumbersome administratively where every minority shareholder gets a vote and veto right almost, and also very little tax advantage,” Mignot said, referring to the acronym for employee stock ownership plan.

“It made it such that it was virtually impossible for companies to use actual ESOP,” he added.

Index has invested in a number of high-profile German tech startups, including human resources software firm Personio and financial service startup Raisin.

What’s changing?

Under the new German rules on ESOPs, taxes on employees’ stock options will be deferred until the point of sale so that staff aren’t faced with the prospect of being taxed on their shares as soon as they receive them, according to a draft version of the legislation viewed by CNBC.

Meanwhile, the scope of the plan will also be widened so that more growth companies can benefit.

The threshold for companies that can take advantage of German ESOP plans will be raised so that firms with up to 1,000 employees and a maximum of 100 million euros ($108.7 million) of annual revenue can distribute shares to staff.

Capital gains tax rules will also be changed so that startup employees are charged tax on the profits they make when they sell their shares. This tax is viewed as a reflection of the risk that employees take on a young, unproven startup.

The new legislation will also mean that companies listing in Germany can issue dual-class shares. Those shares are a key point of attraction for venture-backed startups, as it allows founders to maintain control over the business.

Competing with the U.S. for talent

Europe now has a much more established venture capital industry, which has provided startups with access to ample amounts of cash, with billions of dollars worth of funds having been raised by firms across the Continent.

But bottlenecks remain around attracting talent that mean it has been harder to compete with Silicon Valley giants when it comes to finding the best people.

European tech startups are unable to match some of the offers by U.S. giants like Google, Amazon, Meta  and Microsoft — but stock options provide them with an alternative way to compete on compensation, Index Ventures’ Mignot said.

Of particular note, proponents of the reforms in Germany say they want to tackle a “brain drain” where talented local tech workers are leaving for the U.S.

“We shouldn’t think about startups as small companies, we should think about startups as the new industry leaders for tomorrow — one of our investors often says, ‘Who in 10, 20 years will be one of the leaders of the S&P 500 in 20 years?’” said Hanno Renner, co-founder and CEO of Personio.

“This regulation is a big step to accelerating the entire flywheel in Germany and make sure German startups have the ability to attract the best talent, so when they come to a startup like Personio, keep growing and keep building global champions,” Renner said.

Tao Tao, co-founder and chief operating officer of German travel startup GetYourGuide, said that German firms would struggle to match the same pay packages on offer from the likes of Google, Meta or BMW.

“The industry wants to be competitive on the global stage,” said Tao, who has moved to New York to grow GetYourGuide’s footprint. “I think this is really leveling the playing field. We need to make it much more attractive and not less hard to attract great talent to Europe and to Germany.”

The plans have been in the works for some time. Germany introduced rules to make its employee stock ownership plans more attractive back in 2020. However, startups and investors, including venture capital firm Index Ventures, said the rules didn’t do enough to address their concerns.

Now, the firm says that Germany will be among the leading countries in Europe when it comes to ESOPs.

Not done yet

More remains to be done, tech entrepreneurs and investors told CNBC. In Germany, companies with a group structure still won’t apply for ESOP rules, according to one German startup founder, who preferred to remain anonymous discussing sensitive matters.

Going forward, Mignot hopes that the European Commission, the EU’s executive arm, will approve a pan-European framework for stock options that would allow tech companies to “passport” stock options into different countries like France and Italy.

“Though there are still individual country plans, they are not the same,” he said. “You have similar qualities [but] you can’t issue one stock option in one country that is applicable everywhere and could be the same system everywhere.”

He added, “This idea of a phase two in an ideal world where there would be some form of stock option passport, where any country could issue a stock option that would be recognized by any European country so you only do it once. … It would allow you very easily to scale across countries.”

Meantime, separate plans are currently being devised by the government that would allow pension funds to invest directly in venture capital funds in Germany.

Tech industry insiders in the country have expressed frustration that there is more ownership of companies from big North American pension funds in German tech companies than there is from domestic pension funds.

This, they argue, means that German taxpayers wouldn’t reap the benefits if a company successfully goes public or gets acquired at a higher valuation.

[Cadavre Exquis]

https://www.pressreader.com/spain/el-economista/20231118/page/3/textview

Desplome de la compraventa de viviendas

https://www.eleconomista.es/vivienda-inmobiliario/noticias/12543506/11/23/la-compraventa-de-viviendas-firma-el-mayor-desplome-desde-el-periodo-mas-duro-de-la-pandemia.html

Saludos.

[Derby]

https://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2023/11/australian-population-records-continue-to-tumble/

Australian population records continue to tumble

As one justification for the largest immigration program in history, the Albanese government has asserted that it is merely “catching up” on the net overseas migration “lost” due to the pandemic.



For instance, Home Affairs Minister Clare O’Neil said in March that record projected immigration was “a welcome indicator of the ongoing recovery from the pandemic and a reminder of the critical role migration plays in our economy, but also shows that we still have a long way to go to fill the gap in our workforce left by the pandemic”.

Treasurer Jim Chalmers also said that “even with this big bounce in net overseas migration, we still haven’t caught up with what we lost in Covid”.(...)

[Derby]

https://www.lavanguardia.com/economia/20231118/9387099/despidos-catalunya-superan-octubre-ano-pasado.html

Los despidos en Catalunya superan hasta octubre los de todo el año pasado

Los despidos en procesos colectivos en Catalunya hasta octubre del año superan la cifra que se registró en el 2023 cuando faltan dos meses para que acabe el año. El Departament de Treball contabilizó 5.689 despidos en expedientes de regulación de empleo (ERE), un 36% más.(...)

[Benzino Napaloni]

Hablando del Rey de Roma... (no estoy suscrito al Confidencial, cachis )

Fallece el rey de 22@, el distrito que puso a Barcelona en el mapa tecnológico mundial

El destino le ha ahorrado contemplar el fracaso por un cambio de coyuntura.

Qué macabro .

Pero no anda muy alejado de lo que pretende más de un rentista, estar ya criando malvas cuando ya no haya más que rascar y que le quiten lo bailao.

[asustadísimos]

[En el balotaje argentino, el Sr. Sánchez no hace campaña por Massa, en contra de Milei,
— ni como presidente de España
— ni como 'presidente' de la UE-Consejo,
— sino como 'presidente' del PSOE
— y como presidente de la Internacional Socialista.

Por la sencilla razón de que la Unión Cívica Radical (Alfonsín, De la Rúa):
— pertenece a la Internacional Socialista,
— es miembro de Juntos por el Cambio y
— apoya oficialmente a Massa, de Unión por la Patria.

Además, como a todos (menos a los contestatarios conservadores de la 'vataya kurturáh'), Milei y su La Libertad Avanza le dan repelús:
— min. 01:22 https://youtu.be/2ulXfz5Qq_w?t=82 (ayer, en el Teatro Colón con la animadora Fátima Flórez: «Milei, basura, vos sos la dictadura») 
— min. 20:36 https://youtu.be/SEgiTkqGUjY?t=1236
— min. 04:03 https://youtu.be/qSWJea95rfA?t=243
— min. 01:00 https://youtu.be/mUj2sz9YVN0?t=31

El mundo se juega más de lo que parece en las elecciones argentinas de mañana.

Entendemos que, en cuanto a éxito en número de votos de Milei, es más importante de lo que parece la terraplanista Lilia Lemoine, 'cosplayer' profesional, fotógrafa y peluquera de Milei, diputada nacional electa por la Provincia de Buenos Aires y famosa por anunciar que su primer proyecto será que las mujeres puedan notificar a los hombres, en 15 días, que están embarazadas, para que estos decidan si renuncian o no a la paternidad ('pinchar el forro' significa agujerear el preservativo):
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/qZxRB-mZveA

'Pro memoria':

Pertenecen a la Internacional Socialista un total de 160 partidos de 100 países, entre ellos, que nos interese ahora a los estructuraltransicionistas:
— Israel: Partido Laborista de Israel (HAVODA, que es sionista-socialdemócrata) y el Meretz (sionista-socialista)
— Palestina: Movimiento Nacional de Liberación de Palestina (Fatah)
— Marruecos: Unión Socialista de las Fuerzas Populares
— Rusia: Rusia Justa (que apoyó a Putin en las últimas elecciones)
— Ucrania: ninguno
— EEUU: ninguno

Entre los partidos consultivos:
— Irán: Partido Komala del Kurdistán Iraní
— Turquía: Partido Democrático de los Pueblos

Entre los partidos solo observadores:
— Reino Unido: Partido laborista

Entre las organizaciones asociadas:
— Bund Laborista Judío
— Movimiento Zionista Laborista Mundial

Entre los antiguos miembros que dejaron de serlo:
— EEUU: Partido Socialista de los Estados Unidos
— Egipto: el Partido Nacional Democrático y el Partido Socialdemócrata Egipcio

P. S.: En el improbable caso de que ganara Milei, no cambiaría el cronograma de la transición estructural. Solo tendríamos más trabajo porque habría que ir haciendo el relato de su fracaso. Nos complicaría la gestión del derrotismo concon (contestatario conservador). Pensarían que tienen esperanza de gozar algún día de un mesías 'libertario' (ja). Y pondría un poco más complicado y doloroso el ajuste del dólar.

P. S. 2: Milei se quedará en un susto, incluso si gana. Si no gana, veremos, chamanes cornúpetas 'asaltacasarosada', con la remera de Messi. Milei debiera ser solo una pataleta friki, un 'putodofender' Argentina, a imagen y semejanza de la madre patria.

Putodefender España ]

[Benzino Napaloni]

https://twitter.com/juralde/status/1724151778365550941?t=zTB-K3rQG8Og7nvCpDZS4A&s=19

Lo que yo no sabía (esto no se ha contado) es que esta señora infame le gritaba a una concentración de la organización @AnimaNaturalis contra las subvenciones a la tauromaquia.

(Ridículo y absurdo igualmente).

[Derby]

Hablando del Rey de Roma... (no estoy suscrito al Confidencial, cachis )

Fallece el rey de 22@, el distrito que puso a Barcelona en el mapa tecnológico mundial

El destino le ha ahorrado contemplar el fracaso por un cambio de coyuntura.

Qué macabro .

Pero no anda muy alejado de lo que pretende más de un rentista, estar ya criando malvas cuando ya no haya más que rascar y que le quiten lo bailao.

El padre era uno de los subasteros más importantes de Barcelona...ahí está el origen de la fortuna familiar.

[Derby]

https://fortune.com/2023/11/18/housing-market-math-nimbys-not-working-tom-barkin-richmond-fed/

Housing math just isn’t mathing, a Fed president says, ripping into NIMBYism and homes that are ‘increasingly unattainable for too many workers’

The math isn’t mathing. Hopeful homebuyers earnings just aren’t adding up to the cost of housing—leaving people desperate to break into the market. You don’t expect to hear that from a central banker, though. Cue Tom Barkin, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, who gave a speech on Wednesday at the 2023 Virginia Governor’s Housing Conference. The obvious problem with the housing market, he said, is that it’s “becoming increasingly unattainable for too many workers.”

“Take teachers, for example,” Barkin said. “The math all too often just doesn’t work for them.” Here are his sums: Middle school teachers in 2022 made a median salary of just over $60,000, Barkin said, which means that they could afford a $228,000 house, assuming a traditional 20% down payment. The problem, though, is that the median price for a starter home last year was $299,000—“And that’s on the off chance you could even find one.”

Barkin was speaking to the area his bank serves, but his observations apply to housing markets across the country, where hopeful homebuyers are taking on astronomical monthly payments thanks to decades-high interest rates and ever-increasing prices. Indeed, monthly payments are up 60% year-over-year, according to a recent report by real estate data and analytics firm Black Knight. That’s a whopping $871 more per month, on average. 

In fact, the average monthly principal and interest payment for borrowers on a 30-year fixed rate loan in July 2023 was more than $2,300—the highest average principal and interest payment on record, per the report. What’s even more of a shock, though, is that one-fourth of homebuyers pay at least $3,000 per month, Black Knight data shows. This is placing more and more folks into the house poor bucket, with many spending upwards of 60% of their paychecks on their mortgage.

To make matters worse, wages and home prices aren’t growing at the same pace. Average hourly earnings have increased 21% since 2019, Barkin said, but the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Indices shows a 48% jump during the same time period.

“The math has been getting worse,” he said. “At the same time, of course, mortgage rates rose from 3.9% to almost 8% today. Why did prices spike so much? Demand and supply.”

How to make ‘the math work’ and take on the NIMBYs

Barkin outlined a few ways to make “the math work” in his speech, mostly tied to improving housing inventory, which is down 8.1% year-over-year, according to the National Association of Realtors. Barkin suggests that communities need to “rally together” to make the case that housing is “integral to economic growth.” And that brought him to the scourge of inventory: the NIMBYs.

A famous phrase in housing circles, the “not in my backyard” homeowner has been famous for blocking development in their neighborhoods for decades, perhaps most famously in Northern California’s Bay Area. Barkin said the problem is widespread. “NIMBYism is real, and failing to secure buy-in from the community adds time, cost and uncertainty,” he said. “How do leaders rally their communities? They articulate the case for housing.”

Rental math also doesn’t add up

While all housing markets are different, it’s still generally cheaper to rent than buy because of high mortgage rates, home prices, and the amount needed for a down payment, Barkin noted.

“Many younger millennials and Gen Zers are saving up by staying home with their parents or even renting with friends to put together a down payment on a home,” Maureen McDermut, a realtor with Sotheby’s International-Montecito, previously told Fortune. “As ‘starter’ homes have largely gone by the wayside, it is almost essential to do this for most.”

But rent prices also continue to rise on a national scale, Barkin said. There are fewer deals to be had.

“The math for renting also isn’t great. Supply and demand hit the rental market, too,” Barkin said. “In 2021, rents spiked as national rental vacancy rates dropped to levels not seen in almost 40 years.”

The same teacher he used as an example would have faced a median asking rent of $1,643 per month in 2022 “already a stretch for their budget,” Barkin said. Now, that price is up 22% to $2,011, he said, citing data from Rent, a rental software development company.

The math isn’t likely to change for prospective buyers in the near future. Mortgage rates hit 8% in mid-October, and have been dropping some since then. But buyers hoping to see a drastic drop anytime soon are out of luck, economists and housing market experts say. In fact, Capital Economics, a London-based research firm known for its housing market forecasting, said in late October it doesn’t expect rates to fall significantly for at least the next two years.

“While we still expect mortgage rates to decline, they are unlikely to fall below 6% before end-2025, muting any recovery in house purchase demand and sales volumes,” Thomas Ryan, the U.S. property economist for Capital Economics, previously told Fortune. Other experts don’t expect to see the 2% and 3% mortgage rates of the pandemic era.

How to make the math work

But building more inventory—and fighting the NIMBYs—won’t come easy. Communities need to realize that they’re competing for developers, Barkin said, suggesting implementation of more tax incentive programs to renovate and rehabilitate older residential and commercial properties to help with housing inventory. Securing land is also a barrier to building more housing, so Barkin suggests focusing on changing zoning laws, investing in viable homesites, and leveraging unused land.

Lastly, Barkin also suggests addressing construction costs, which are “way up.” Developing smaller homes or factory-built homes could help drive down construction costs, he said. Unconventional partners can make affordable housing projects happen, he suggests, including foundations, employers, colleges, and churches.

“We all know housing availability is limiting communities. The key is more supply,” Barkin said. “As I said upfront, this is a math problem — but one where potential solutions are beginning to multiply.”

https://www.richmondfed.org/press_room/speeches/thomas_i_barkin/2023/barkin_speech_20231115#footnote2

[sudden and sharp]

Era esto
https://elpais.com/opinion/2023-11-18/era-esto.html
Por fin ya sabemos qué es el diálogo y cómo consigue arreglar cualquier conflicto



הַלְּלוּיָהּ ^*

Por fin lo hemos descubierto: ya sabemos qué es el diálogo y cómo consigue arreglar cualquier conflicto. Ante todo, es imprescindible desentenderse de lo verdadero o lo falso, lo legal o lo ilegal, lo justo o lo injusto del asunto que discutimos con nuestro adversario. Lo único que importa es, primero, qué deseamos obtener de este y, segundo, qué podemos dar para sobornarle. Si nuestro rival quiere grandes beneficios, lo mejor es ofrecerle todo y más, pero no de nuestro peculio, sino del de otros. Negocio perfecto: obtenemos de él lo que nos interesa privadamente y se lo cambiamos por valores públicos que no nos interesan, porque son de cualquiera. Después, hay que hacer un poco de magia potagia para digerir el cambalache (no es la Constitución la que se pliega al rebelde, sino el rebelde quien se pliega a la Constitución) y viva el diálogo.^**

Grande Sabater, como (casi) siempre.   


------------------
[ *) Aleluya. ]
[ **) Gora! ]

[errozate]

El Diario de Navarra ha recogido unas fotografías de la concentración en contra de la ley de amnistía de hoy sábado.

Lo que más me llama la atención no es si son muchos o pocos los concentrados. No se puede comparar con la manifestación de Madrid que ha sido multitudinaria. Lo que más me llama la atención es que a diferencia de en Madrid, donde se ve gente joven, en esta de Pamplona me parecen de edad muy avanzada los participantes.

https://www.diariodenavarra.es/multimedia/galerias-imagenes/navarra/pamplona-comarca/2023/11/18/imagenes-protestas-ley-amnistia-pamplona-sabado-18-noviembre.html

[sudden and sharp]

Pues sí.









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[ Ya deberíais empezar a hespabilar, los vasco-navarros. ]