PPCC: Pisitófilos Creditófagos. Invierno 2024

[Negrule]

Esto es, bajo mi punto de vista, la gran diferencia con la crisis anterior ,  que hay trabajo. Que en su inmensa mayoría son precarios? Si, pero si no llegas ya sabes , pluriempleo.

https://www.lavanguardia.com/economia/20240308/9545394/subida-precios-fuerza-recurrir-mas-creditos-pluriempleo-horas-extra.html

La subida de los precios fuerza a recurrir a más créditos, pluriempleo y horas extra IPC

Jóvenes, mujeres, personas con menor nivel educativo o que viven el alquiler son los que más han tenido que incrementar su horas de trabajo, según el Banco de España

A pesar del aumento desorbitado de los precios y después de sufrir un profundo bache en el 2020, el consumo de los hogares españoles ha ido recuperándose gradualmente hasta conseguir recuperar el nivel prepandemia a finales del 2023. No ha sido fácil. Para conseguirlo han tenido que tirar de más crédito, pluriempleo y horas extras.

Las principales estrategias han sido buscar ofertas en la compra y reducir los niveles de ahorro y de gasto. En esto, las familias españolas se comportaron de manera parecida a las europeas. En cambio, donde divergen es en otros comportamientos, con las españolas recurriendo mucho más al crédito y a buscar una segunda ocupación o trabajar más horas.

Estas dos fórmulas, más crédito y pluriempleo, son las “vías para amortiguar el impacto del incremento de los precios sobre el consumo, especialmente en el caso de los hogares con colchones de liquidez reducidos”, afirma el artículo “La reacción de los hogares ante el repunte de precios en España en la UEM”, publicado esta mañana por el Banco de España. Allí se muestra como las familias españolas recurrieron 2,3 puntos porcentuales más al crédito al consumo que la media a la eurozona, lo que concuerda perfectamente con la evolución más dinámica del crédito al consumo en España observada recientemente en España. De esta manera, el repunte de las rentas de los hogares unido a este dinamismo en el crédito al consumo permitió en 2023 continuase la senda de recuperación de gasto de las familias.

Por lo que respecta a trabajar más,  también el porcentaje de los españoles que lo han tenido que hacer para adaptarse a unos precios más altos, es 1,2 puntos porcentuales superiores a la eurozona. Esta apreciación concuerda con los datos de Eurostat que muestran que la proporción de personas en situación de pluriempleo en España aumentó un 6,8% entre septiembre de 2022 y septiembre de 2023, mientras que en la zona euro el incremento fue solo del 1%.

Y entrando más en el detalle, la autora del artículo del Banco de España, Carmen Martínez, apunta que quiénes han tenido que aumentar más sus horas de trabajo son jóvenes, mujeres, personas de menor nivel educativo y los que viven en régimen de alquiler.

Además, es una tendencia que irá a más. En la encuesta del BCE sobre las expectativas de los consumidores (CES), se observa que el porcentaje de personas que prevén recurrir a un aumento de sus horas de trabajo, oferta laboral es ocho puntos superior al que lo han hecho efectivamente en los últimos doce meses. Una encuesta que se centra en el periodo agosto y octubre de 2023.

La forma de adaptarse a la subida de precios también varía en función de activos líquidos de cierta cuantía. En los hogares con pocos ahorros disponibles de forma inmediata, son los que más han buscado un segundo trabajo, lo que han recurrido más al crédito y los que han tenido que recortar más el gasto.

[Marv]

https://www.expansion.com/economia/financial-times/2024/03/05/65e707e6e5fdea7c148b4587.html

https://www.pressreader.com/spain/expansion-nacional/20240308/page/23/textview

El número de bancos de EEUU en riesgo de quiebra crece un 18%

Saludos.

Puede ser el momento de algunas reflexiones sobre el telecurro.

A la pregunta de 'lo que la gente quiere realmente':

- Los que han adoptado alguna modalidad de teletrabajo en algún momento, en general no quieren volver a lo de antes. No importa lo que dicen, sino lo que hacen.
- Las empresas están teniendo que obligar, y no queda nada claro cuál es el objetivo de esa obligación. O bien queda demasiado claro.

Eso hay que cruzarlo con la cantinela secular de la produstibidáh.

- Empresas que han quebrado por adoptar el teletrabajo: ¿cero? (En cualquier modalidad).
- En cuanto a que haya bajado o se haya visto afectada la susodicha, estudios que lo demuestren: ¿cero?. (Y aclaro que habría que demostrar muy bien que el problema no ha sido una inversión estúpida, un imponderable o una indigestión de ladrillo).

El fracaso del modelo híbrido.

No me gusta la radicalidad, y me parece perfecto que haya oficinas. Lo que me parece mal es persistir en el error. Cuando la oficina sirve, pues sirve. Cuando no, pues no.

El modelo híbrido tiene problemas. No termina de ser lo mejor para la empresa, que necesita seguir manteniendo cierto nivel de infraestructura aún cuando se desperdicie. Y para el trabajador, ya está dicho; no permite salir del avispero. Así que en definitiva nadie gana todo lo que podría --aunque nadie pierde.

Por otro lado, las sillas calientes no terminan de ser buenas para nada. Si vas a la oficina por turnos y no está quien tiene que estar, no se aprovecha el human touch, es sólo presencialismo. No puedo contar las veces que he ido a la oficina para abrir el portátil y empezar a hablar online con el pinganillo, molestando a todo el mundo a mi alrededor (y habitualmente en un ambiente insufrible de gallinero-callcenter de inijinieros hablando idiomas).

A lo mejor estoy sesgado por mi entorno, pero para mí es el momento de que se reconozca que los peligros y amenazas que asociaban al teletrabajo son infundados, cortinas de humo, o directamente malintencionados. Y que lo más inteligente es trabajar los modelos para que todo el mundo gane, no justo lo contrario.

Y lo que a mí me parece es que estamos una vez más ante un problema de coste hundido por todo lo alto.

Lo que sorprende es que en paralelo, todo el CEOismo esté tan entusiasmado e impaciente por que la IA remodele el sistema productivo tal y como lo conocemos, prescindiendo no ya de las oficinas ¡sino del trabajador mismo!

A lo mejor después se les ocurre llevar a la IA a la oficina, para que se beneficie de las sinergias grupales con los curritos atados a la silla.

[Betancourt]

Los tipos no van a bajar para que tú vuelvas a hacer alegremente tus compras residenciales a precios de catálogo hinchados en +60%. Bajarán para dar volumen al bajismo; para ampliar el ajuste y llegar a la corrección valorativa general del –60%, que 'sincera' el catálogo con 'los fundamentales' —sinceramiento es una expresión usada por ellos para el tipo de cambio, que nosotros les devolvemos—.

Permítame una corrección de un error elemental en el que, a veces, caemos todos.

Si algo vale 100 y debería valer 40, debería bajar un 60%
Si algo vale 40 y me lo venden a 100, me han hinchado el precio un 250%

[Zugzwang]

Esto es, bajo mi punto de vista, la gran diferencia con la crisis anterior ,  que hay trabajo. Que en su inmensa mayoría son precarios? Si, pero si no llegas ya sabes , pluriempleo.

https://www.lavanguardia.com/economia/20240308/9545394/subida-precios-fuerza-recurrir-mas-creditos-pluriempleo-horas-extra.html

La subida de los precios fuerza a recurrir a más créditos, pluriempleo y horas extra IPC

Jóvenes, mujeres, personas con menor nivel educativo o que viven el alquiler son los que más han tenido que incrementar su horas de trabajo, según el Banco de España

A pesar del aumento desorbitado de los precios y después de sufrir un profundo bache en el 2020, el consumo de los hogares españoles ha ido recuperándose gradualmente hasta conseguir recuperar el nivel prepandemia a finales del 2023. No ha sido fácil. Para conseguirlo han tenido que tirar de más crédito, pluriempleo y horas extras.

Las principales estrategias han sido buscar ofertas en la compra y reducir los niveles de ahorro y de gasto. En esto, las familias españolas se comportaron de manera parecida a las europeas. En cambio, donde divergen es en otros comportamientos, con las españolas recurriendo mucho más al crédito y a buscar una segunda ocupación o trabajar más horas.

Estas dos fórmulas, más crédito y pluriempleo, son las “vías para amortiguar el impacto del incremento de los precios sobre el consumo, especialmente en el caso de los hogares con colchones de liquidez reducidos”, afirma el artículo “La reacción de los hogares ante el repunte de precios en España en la UEM”, publicado esta mañana por el Banco de España. Allí se muestra como las familias españolas recurrieron 2,3 puntos porcentuales más al crédito al consumo que la media a la eurozona, lo que concuerda perfectamente con la evolución más dinámica del crédito al consumo en España observada recientemente en España. De esta manera, el repunte de las rentas de los hogares unido a este dinamismo en el crédito al consumo permitió en 2023 continuase la senda de recuperación de gasto de las familias.

Por lo que respecta a trabajar más,  también el porcentaje de los españoles que lo han tenido que hacer para adaptarse a unos precios más altos, es 1,2 puntos porcentuales superiores a la eurozona. Esta apreciación concuerda con los datos de Eurostat que muestran que la proporción de personas en situación de pluriempleo en España aumentó un 6,8% entre septiembre de 2022 y septiembre de 2023, mientras que en la zona euro el incremento fue solo del 1%.

Y entrando más en el detalle, la autora del artículo del Banco de España, Carmen Martínez, apunta que quiénes han tenido que aumentar más sus horas de trabajo son jóvenes, mujeres, personas de menor nivel educativo y los que viven en régimen de alquiler.

Además, es una tendencia que irá a más. En la encuesta del BCE sobre las expectativas de los consumidores (CES), se observa que el porcentaje de personas que prevén recurrir a un aumento de sus horas de trabajo, oferta laboral es ocho puntos superior al que lo han hecho efectivamente en los últimos doce meses. Una encuesta que se centra en el periodo agosto y octubre de 2023.

La forma de adaptarse a la subida de precios también varía en función de activos líquidos de cierta cuantía. En los hogares con pocos ahorros disponibles de forma inmediata, son los que más han buscado un segundo trabajo, lo que han recurrido más al crédito y los que han tenido que recortar más el gasto.

En la crisis pasada, con el salariazo, se destruyó gran parte del empleo estable y con sueldos medio-altos (burbujeados a la realidad del momento), para dar coherencia a una economía de servicios. Con las condiciones por los suelos, empleo no falta. Los trabajos que yo transito no son ningún chollo. La tendencia es otra: casapapismo, renuncia al consumo y posponiendo indefinidamente proyectos vitales; ya van dos generaciones sacrificadas. Cada vez son más los que no piensan trabajar para un casero, para eso es preferible seguir en el paro. Por eso existe el auge de los opositores, la peineta al subempleo es clara cristalina, sobre todo los que reniegan de la precariedad y se lo pueden permitir, tirando de familia. El subempleo permite cambiar de móvil, hacer un par de viajes, cambiar de ordenador o el terraceo, pero llega un momento en el que se dice basta, porque los años no pasan en balde. La peineta al trabajo autónomo es también una realidad.

Hay otro factor muy claro: acabar con el pisito va a obligar, sí o sí, a dar un retroceso fuerte a "todo el trabajo es precario". Sostener el Pisito y sus precios de catálogo tuvieron un efecto inevitable: auge de la precariedad y traslación del beneficio a las rentas del alquiler. Eso tuvo un coste evidente en la caída brutal de la productividad, yo mismo soy más productivo cuanto más tiempo estoy en la empresa, al principio no trabajas igual que cuando llevas semanas, meses o años. El cambio de mentalidad va a tener que ser radical, en todos los aspectos. Por eso se resisten todos los actores a dar ese volantazo, no solamente son los intereses creados por amplias capas de la población, sino que gran parte del tejido productivo gira en torno al subempleo, y sin control aparente por los excesos. Para poder generar una economía donde se combinen varios puestos de trabajos a tiempo parcial, se deben cumplir horarios y debe existir mucha más oferta, algo muy alejado de la realidad española. Una economía centrada en el monocultivo de los servicios tiene problemas mayúsculos para generar mejores condiciones. El salariazo dejó unas consecuencias que van a requerir de muchos cambios para poder cohesionar y sostener el tejido productivo, el hartazgo de los trabajadores precarios está llegando al límite.

Cuando los precios empiecen a bajar, el menor de los problemas va a ser ese, que los precios bajen. La falta de rentas salariales es un problema de orden mayúsculo, no solo para honrar el impuesto privado inmobiliario. De momento, las pensiones están sosteniendo a familias enteras. Pero, ¿hasta cuando? 

[Derby]

https://www.ft.com/content/22089f01-8468-4905-8e36-fd35d2b2293e

Europe faces ‘competitiveness crisis’ as US widens productivity gap

Washington reaps benefits from green fiscal stimulus, rehiring and surge in new businesses

The US has widened its productivity lead over Europe, sparking fears in the EU that it faces a “competitiveness crisis” as policymakers call for greater public and private investment.

New data released on Friday showed eurozone productivity fell 1.2 per cent in the fourth quarter from a year earlier, while in the US it rose 2.6 per cent in the same period, separate data showed. Labour productivity growth in the US has been more than double that of the eurozone and UK in the past two decades.

“In the long term, productivity growth in the US is projected to be higher than in Europe,” said Bart van Ark, managing director at the UK-based Productivity Institute. “Europe is not showing the same dynamism. That is widening the growth gap between the US and the EU.”

Some economists argue that the US is growing faster than the eurozone in part because its population is younger, growing more rapidly and working longer hours. But a big part of the output gap is because people in the US also produce more for each hour that they work. 

EU policymakers view the trend as deeply worrying — and a reflection of a long-standing failure to match US levels of private or public sector investment. 



Output per hour worked, a standard measure of labour productivity, has grown more than 6 per cent in the US non-farm business sector since 2019, according to official data. That far outpaces the eurozone and UK, which have seen growth of around 1 per cent over the same period. 

The recent jump in US productivity comes after a massive fiscal stimulus centred on green industry, a frenzied period of rehiring and a surge in new business formation in homeworking hotspots.

By contrast, the eurozone has received less fiscal support from governments while suffering a much bigger rise in energy prices as a result of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. The fragmentation of Europe’s financial markets, fiscal policy and regulation also makes it more exposed to external pressures than the US.

“When Europe is hit by a shock, it is fragmented, so it doesn’t respond as coherently as the US,” said Yannis Stournaras, governor of Greece’s central bank.

While short-term factors have undoubtedly fuelled the US rebound, some economists think there is more to it than that.

“We have stalled productivity in the eurozone,” said Gilles Moëc, chief economist at the insurer Axa. “Since the uptick has been persisting for so long, we need to contemplate the possibility that something structural is happening.”

Moëc notes that if eurozone productivity continued to lag the US to the same extent, GDP growth would be a percentage point lower each year. 

Isabel Schnabel, a member of the European Central Bank’s executive board, said last month it was “more urgent than ever” for eurozone leaders to close the productivity gap with the US. She said that was needed to address a “competitiveness crisis”, with EU manufacturers facing higher energy prices and bigger workforce challenges than their American or Chinese counterparts. 

The ECB also worries that falling productivity will increase the risk of inflation staying high by pushing up labour costs for eurozone companies, as it weighs when to cut interest rates that are at a record high.

Schnabel said one root cause of the eurozone’s weakness was that it had failed to reap the efficiency gains of digital technologies as the US had done at an earlier stage. Fostering competition would be part of the answer, she said, but also called for swifter, more effective implementation of the EU’s Next Generation programme of public investment.

Mario Draghi, the former ECB president, will report to the EU president later this year on more ambitious proposals to boost the EU’s competitiveness. He has reportedly told the bloc’s finance ministers that they will need to find “an enormous amount of money in a relatively short time” — both public and private — to bring investment up to US levels. 

Labour market trends have accentuated the divergence in productivity. Ariane Curtis at the consultancy Capital Economics said US employers were apt to automate faster when workers were scarce, while Europeans had focused “on hiring workers to fill gaps, potentially even if there were skills mismatches”.

Not all economists are convinced that recent US strength is evidence of a structural shift.

Erik Neilsen, chief economist at UniCredit, said the eurozone’s current weakness was “a statistical phenomenon”, as employers who struggled to hire in the post Covid upswing were now hoarding labour in the downturn. Productivity could rebound — for unwelcome reasons — if tight ECB policy squeezed demand until they eventually laid workers off. 

Catherine Mann, an external member of the Bank of England’s monetary policy committee, told the FT last month that while labour productivity numbers looked “very attractive” in the US, they were driven by demand factors, pushed in particular by a budget deficit of more than 6 per cent. 

By contrast, demand is more depressed in both the euro area and the UK, where the economy slipped into a technical recession in the fourth quarter.

Claus Vistesen at Pantheon Macroeconomics said there were reasons for optimism on European productivity. “It’s too pessimistic to assume that, if we are indeed on the cusp of a new technology-driven productivity boom centred around AI and related services, this will pass the eurozone by completely.”

[Derby]

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/jerome-powell-says-housing-market-184305734.html

Jerome Powell says ‘the housing market is in a very challenging situation right now’ and interest rate cuts alone won’t solve a long-running inventory crisis

The housing market has a problem—millions of them. The country is short between 3.5 and 5.5 million housing units, according to various estimates. The roots of the shortage go back to the aftermath of the Global Financial Crisis, when cautious developers were hesitant to invest in new construction and set a precedent of undersupply that’s continued to now. Jerome Powell.

On Thursday, the Federal Reserve chair testified to the Senate Banking Committee against the backdrop of his recent decision not to cut interest rates, the big question investors and homebuyers are asking. Potential rate cuts have given investors hope about some much-needed relief for the housing market, which has struggled to cope with soaring mortgage and refinancing rates, but Powell testified that the housing market’s real problems run much deeper—and it will take more than just monetary policy to fix them.

“The housing market is in a very challenging situation right now,” Powell said on Capitol Hill on Thursday. “Problems associated with low rate mortgage [lock-in] and high [mortgage] rates and all that, those will abate as the economy normalizes and as rates normalize,” he said, referring to the mismatch between something approaching 90% of homeowners with mortgage rates below 6% and the current market offering above 7%. “But we’ll still be left with a housing market nationally, where there is a housing shortage.”

'There are a ton of things happening'

Powell explained the current problems facing homebuyers and sellers to the committee: “You have a shortage of homes available for sale because many people are living in homes with a very low mortgage rate and can’t afford to refinance, so they’re not moving, which means the supply of regular existing homes that are for sale is historically low and a very low transaction rate,” Powell said. “That actually pushes up the prices of other existing homes, and also of new homes, because there’s just not enough supply.”

But it’s a bigger issue than buyers and sellers being locked in, he said. “There are a ton of things happening … because of higher rates, and those in the short-term are weighing on the housing market … it’s more difficult [for builders] to get people [labor] and materials,” Powell said. “But as [mortgage] rates come down, and that all goes through the economy, we’re still going to be back to a place where we don’t have enough housing.”

The pandemic only made things worse. High inflation has made materials and labor costs far pricier, and ballooning mortgage rates have pumped the brakes on an already-slow sector. National Association of Realtors data showed that there were only 3.2 months of available housing supply as of the end of last year, about half as much as there should be in a balanced market.

Markets expect the Fed to announce rate cuts this year—but while that will offer some short-term relief, it won’t solve the housing market’s deep–set supply problems.

Powell noted that restrictive zoning laws play an important role in limiting new construction. He also pointed out that rising mortgage rates have discouraged longtime homeowners who locked in lower rates from moving, which has limited the number of existing homes on the market and left new homebuyers struggling to find affordable options.

Powell’s threading a tricky needle—the housing market is a big driver of the domestic economy, and overstressing it by keeping interest rates high for too long could threaten the rest of the economy. On the other hand, cutting rates too soon—or too quickly—in line with the industry’s demands could undermine the Fed’s yearslong attempts to stick a soft landing and keep inflation under control.

“Housing activity accounts for nearly 16% of GDP according to NAHB estimates,” wrote a group of housing industry trade organizations in a letter to Powell last fall. “We urge the Fed to take these simple steps to ensure that this sector does not precipitate the hard landing the Fed has tried so hard to avoid.”

[Derby]

https://www.business-standard.com/world-news/china-says-it-will-improve-real-estate-sales-in-forceful-orderly-way-124030900378_1.html

China says it will improve real estate sales in 'forceful', 'orderly' way

Some developers should be allowed to go bankrupt or restructured according to legal and market-based rules, Ni said told press conference on sidelines of the annual meeting of parliament in Beijing

China will improve home sales in a "forceful" and "orderly" way, Minister of Housing and Urban-Rural Development Ni Hong said on Saturday, as weak demand in the country's beleaguered residential property market persists.
 
The property sector has lurched from one crisis to another since 2021 after a regulatory crackdown on high leverage among developers triggered a liquidity crisis among real estate firms and crushed home-buying sentiment.

Chinese developers including real estate giants China Evergrande Group and Country Garden have defaulted on their debts, many housing projects across China have been left unfinished, and angry buyers who have already paid for their homes have clamoured for official action.

Some developers should be allowed to go bankrupt or restructured according to legal and market-based rules, Ni said told a press conference on the sidelines of the annual meeting of parliament in Beijing.
 
Premier Li Qiang said this week that China will quicken the development of "a new model" for the troubled sector, focussing on building more affordable housing and meeting demand for homes.
 
But China will insist that "housing is for living in, not for speculation" when formulating a new development model for the sector, Ni said, reiterating an official line against property speculation.

[Derby]

[Derby]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-03-09/biden-signs-460-billion-funding-package-that-averts-shutdown

Biden Signs $460 Billion Funding Package That Averts Shutdown

President Joe Biden signed into law a $460 billion package to fund part of the US government until September, finalizing legislation that averts a partial government shutdown.

The package sets spending for about a quarter of agency funding through September, including the departments of Commerce, Justice, Transportation, Energy and Veterans Affairs.(...)

[Derby]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-03-09/signa-prime-is-set-to-present-repayment-plan-in-bid-to-avert-liquidation

Signa Prime Is Set to Present Repayment Plan in Bid to Avert Liquidation

Firm management needs plan adoption to avoid liquidation
All Signa Prime creditors set to vote on plan on March 18

Signa Prime Selection AG will lay out on Monday how it plans to pay back creditors, marking a crucial step in its effort to avoid liquidation.

The luxury property unit in the insolvent Signa conglomerate, founded by fallen Austrian tycoon Rene Benko, will unveil the so-called restructuring plan at a meeting of its creditor committee, two people familiar with the matter said, asking not to be named discussing private matters. That body consists of representatives from two Austrian creditor associations and a government office known as Finanzprokurator.(...)

[Derby]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-03-09/germany-s-backbone-of-family-owned-firms-is-up-for-sale

Germany’s Backbone of Family-Owned Firms Is Up for Sale

Red tape and investment demands prompt owners to weigh sales
Heirs are less likely to want to take over family business

Steffen Cyris, the owner and chief executive of Schrutka-Peukert, a Bavarian manufacturer of refrigerated deli counters and dry-age beef rooms, boasted at last year’s Christmas party about the company’s packed order books, brushing off Germany’s broader economic woes and telling employees to prepare for some extra work this year.

But within a matter of weeks, that optimism was gone. Butchers and bakeries canceled their orders, pointing to subsidies Germany stopped at the beginning of January. Now, with the country sliding deeper into recession, Cyris is increasingly concerned about the long-term prospects of his business.

“The situation is so tense that I’m not sure I’d decline an offer from an investor should I get one,” he said.

Cyris’s unease reflects growing frustration among Germany’s roughly three million family-held companies — still the backbone of the country’s economy — which find themselves approaching a breaking point. With stiff economic headwinds, elevated borrowing costs and a proliferation of red tape, owners increasingly see critical investments in new technologies as unfeasible or not worth the trouble and are looking to bow out.

“The number of small and mid-sized German companies coming up for sale has been piling up for years,” said Jens Krane, head of mergers and acquisitions at Commerzbank AG, which specializes in the country’s Mittelstand, or family-owned businesses. After the pandemic and energy crisis pushed many to the edge, “a combination of new regulations and the need to invest heavily in transforming or scaling businesses has created a sense of ‘I’ve had enough’ among many entrepreneurs.”

Germany’s Mittelstand has built a reputation globally for many highly specialized companies that are spread across the country and often dubbed as hidden champions. Traditionally owners preferred to pass on their companies within the family and only considered a sale if they had to.

Burc Hesse, a corporate partner at law firm Latham Watkins, said companies are now more open to offers from investors such as private equity funds.

“What we keep hearing from German founders and owners is that the complexities of running a business are greater than ever before,” Hesse said. “Price is becoming less relevant when selling your company.”

Conditions have become even more challenging after Germany’s constitutional court last year ordered the ruling coalition to stop excessive off-budget funding. The government had to curb spending, which also limited some funds for businesses that were already struggling with higher energy costs.

“The German Mittelstand is bubbling over,” said Peter May, founder of May Consulting, which specializes in family-held companies. “I receive calls from unsettled family entrepreneurs almost every week: Should we sell? Do we perhaps even have to? Is it still worth being an entrepreneur in Germany?”

In one of the most prominent examples, the Frankfurt-based Viessman family sold its namesake heat-pump manufacturer to US firm Carrier Global Corp. last year in a cash-share deal valued at €12 billion ($13.1 billion). The sale caused an outcry within Germany’s corporate community, but the move was needed “to build a global, future-proof climate champion with more industrial size and scale,” CEO Max Viessmann told Bloomberg News in a statement.

As part of the deal, the company’s heir became one of the largest shareholders of Carrier Global and joined the board of directors of the Palm Beach Gardens, Florida, company. Viessmann is using part of his proceeds to get into investing, and has plans to expand his family-office activities.

Excessive red tape, a perennial complaint in Germany, is another barrier owners say is adding a layer of complexity and distracting from day-to-day operations, according to May. Germany introduced a law last year, for instance, that requires companies with more than 50 employees to set up an anonymous whistleblower system that can cost tens of thousands of euros. The German government has also been clawing back pandemic-era rescue funds, creating additional headaches for some companies.

“The country is suffocating from excessive bureaucracy that permeates all areas of life,” said May.

Finance Minister Christian Lindner, a member of the pro-business Free Democrat party, voiced similar concerns last month, noting that in the past decade, Germany has slipped in the ratings for business locations.

Another challenge for owners of Germany’s family-run businesses, many of whom belong to the boomer generation that helped rebuild the country after World War II, is the matter of succession.

“The mindset of heirs has changed, and fewer and fewer company heirs are willing to take over responsibility as chief executive officer for their parents,” said Jan-Philipp Pfander, a partner at Proventis Partners, a corporate finance boutique advising on sell sides for family-led companies in Germany, Austria and Switzerland.

Around 125,000 small and mid-sized companies will be transferred to new owners every year until 2027, and that nearly three-quarters of them see succession as a problem, German development bank KfW wrote in a recent note.

Even if there is a successor, the prospect of a sale is rarely off the table. Norbert Stein, founder of Vitronic camera maker, hired an outside chief executive in 2020, only then to sell the firm to a rival company owned by billionaire Czech investor Renata Kellnerova.

Other company owners, including Cyris, are considering shifts to opportunities outside Europe.

To mitigate some of the business he’s losing in Germany, Cyris has begun moving part of his business to the US under the brand The Aging Room. He’s now selling dry-age beef rooms to fine dining restaurants and butchers in states including California and Florida, and is exploring options for getting an investor on board.

“Invented in Germany, made in the US, might be our way forward,” Cyris said.

[Negrule]

Cuando comente que era una oportunidad por parte de los bancos centrales aprovechar las conferencias para dejar claro que el problema, si es que realmente lo piensan, es el inmobiliario Benzino (no es una crítica) comento los siguiente: “ Las altas esferas no funcionan igual que donde nos movemos la gente corriente. Hace falta presencia, y morderse la lengua muy a menudo. Es una posición muy difícil, no sólo no se puede decir lo que se piensa, sino que hay que pensar todo lo que se dice.”

Lo que dice Powell, al menos así lo interpreto, podría ser la respuesta de cualquier experto de estos que salen en Expansión, el Economista, el Confidencial, El País, La Vanguardia, El Mundo etc, en el especial de los domingos sobre la situación del mercado inmobiliario, el especial mensual, o lo que sea acerca del inmobiliario.

En fin….

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/jerome-powell-says-housing-market-184305734.html

Jerome Powell says ‘the housing market is in a very challenging situation right now’ and interest rate cuts alone won’t solve a long-running inventory crisis

The housing market has a problem—millions of them. The country is short between 3.5 and 5.5 million housing units, according to various estimates. The roots of the shortage go back to the aftermath of the Global Financial Crisis, when cautious developers were hesitant to invest in new construction and set a precedent of undersupply that’s continued to now. Jerome Powell.

On Thursday, the Federal Reserve chair testified to the Senate Banking Committee against the backdrop of his recent decision not to cut interest rates, the big question investors and homebuyers are asking. Potential rate cuts have given investors hope about some much-needed relief for the housing market, which has struggled to cope with soaring mortgage and refinancing rates, but Powell testified that the housing market’s real problems run much deeper—and it will take more than just monetary policy to fix them.

“The housing market is in a very challenging situation right now,” Powell said on Capitol Hill on Thursday. “Problems associated with low rate mortgage [lock-in] and high [mortgage] rates and all that, those will abate as the economy normalizes and as rates normalize,” he said, referring to the mismatch between something approaching 90% of homeowners with mortgage rates below 6% and the current market offering above 7%. “But we’ll still be left with a housing market nationally, where there is a housing shortage.”

'There are a ton of things happening'

Powell explained the current problems facing homebuyers and sellers to the committee: “You have a shortage of homes available for sale because many people are living in homes with a very low mortgage rate and can’t afford to refinance, so they’re not moving, which means the supply of regular existing homes that are for sale is historically low and a very low transaction rate,” Powell said. “That actually pushes up the prices of other existing homes, and also of new homes, because there’s just not enough supply.”

But it’s a bigger issue than buyers and sellers being locked in, he said. “There are a ton of things happening … because of higher rates, and those in the short-term are weighing on the housing market … it’s more difficult [for builders] to get people [labor] and materials,” Powell said. “But as [mortgage] rates come down, and that all goes through the economy, we’re still going to be back to a place where we don’t have enough housing.”

The pandemic only made things worse. High inflation has made materials and labor costs far pricier, and ballooning mortgage rates have pumped the brakes on an already-slow sector. National Association of Realtors data showed that there were only 3.2 months of available housing supply as of the end of last year, about half as much as there should be in a balanced market.

Markets expect the Fed to announce rate cuts this year—but while that will offer some short-term relief, it won’t solve the housing market’s deep–set supply problems.

Powell noted that restrictive zoning laws play an important role in limiting new construction. He also pointed out that rising mortgage rates have discouraged longtime homeowners who locked in lower rates from moving, which has limited the number of existing homes on the market and left new homebuyers struggling to find affordable options.

Powell’s threading a tricky needle—the housing market is a big driver of the domestic economy, and overstressing it by keeping interest rates high for too long could threaten the rest of the economy. On the other hand, cutting rates too soon—or too quickly—in line with the industry’s demands could undermine the Fed’s yearslong attempts to stick a soft landing and keep inflation under control.

“Housing activity accounts for nearly 16% of GDP according to NAHB estimates,” wrote a group of housing industry trade organizations in a letter to Powell last fall. “We urge the Fed to take these simple steps to ensure that this sector does not precipitate the hard landing the Fed has tried so hard to avoid.”

[Derby]

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2024/mar/09/the-us-could-be-facing-a-2008-style-financial-crisis-why-does-sunak-want-to-copy-it

The US could be facing a 2008-style financial crisis. Why does Sunak want to copy it?

The PM’s admiration for Washington’s economic model may backfire amid looming US banking and stock market disasters

One of the consistent themes of the Conservative economic narrative is an admiration for the US and its ability to grow quickly. The way it has bounced back from the pandemic and how it has ridden out the impact of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine should serve as a blueprint.

A neoliberal Conservative analysis puts the emphasis on tech, innovation and a myth-like entrepreneurial spirit that the UK would do well to emulate. What it ignores is the way the US economy zips ahead on fantastical stock market valuations and off-balance-sheet accounting reminiscent of the years before the 2008 financial crisis. And how both these habits could bite back in a big way, much as they did in 2008, and pretty soon.

While Europe wrestles in a largely transparent fashion with the fallout of deindustrialisation and an ageing workforce with high levels of welfare and state subsidies (giving rightwing commentators all the ammunition they need to knock slow-moving social democratic societies), the US hides many of its problems.

One of those costs is a looming insurance crisis chronicled by analysts at Bloomberg. It is an off-balance-sheet exercise that ranks alongside student loans and public service pensions for its sheer size, but outranks them for the nightmarish instability of the whole scheme.

The financial data provider has documented the switch by millions of homeowners from private insurers to a “last resort” state-run insurer in areas affected by the climate crisis and the hurricanes, wildfires and floods that rising temperatures bring. Those plans have more than doubled their market share since 2018, and their liabilities crossed the $1tn threshold for the first time in 2022, according to Property Insurance Plans Service Office, a research company that tracks the programmes.

Critics of the way private insurers have offloaded liabilities worry that even a modest wave of claims in any of these states will overwhelm the finances of the scheme. Still, one could argue that when this happens, it will be the US government that picks up the tab, keeping a bad problem relatively self-contained.

A looming banking crisis may not be so easy to stop at the border. Last week, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) warned that US banks were at risk from the impact of high interest rates on the value of commercial property.

Office blocks that have seen their value soar in the last 15 years are now seriously underwater, financially speaking. Analysts have been worried for some time about the huge liabilities on bank balance sheets, but the lack of demand for office space, as a result of the trend for working from home, means a crisis is now imminent.

We all remember how the sub-prime residential property markets of California, Florida and many other US states became a bubble after several years of aggressive mortgage selling to people with low incomes. It burst, triggering the 2008 financial crisis, after a series of interest rate rises meant the mortgages were unaffordable and owners handed back the keys.

The IMF said a “sizable subgroup” of banks were in trouble, “with fears that the failure of one institution could precipitate a broader loss of confidence in the sector”.

It added: “Beyond the unrealised losses due to higher interest, the credit risk carried by some institutions, particularly their exposure to corporate real estate, is at the centre stage of investors’ fears today.”

Staff at the credit rating agency S&P have also signalled concerns about high interest rates, though they make a separate point, saying rising debt bills could trigger a wave of corporate failures in the US next year. At a recent briefing, some of the agency’s analysts said thousands of companies had hedged their interest rate exposure, betting that they could refinance when rates fell back. What if rates only tick down gently? These companies will find their loans unaffordable and go bust.

Central bank governors in the US, eurozone and UK are expected to cut the cost of borrowing slowly this year. Possibly too slowly.

Another concern is the exuberance seen in US stock markets. Could it be that increases in share values over the last two years, pushing the US S&P 500 to a record high, constitute a speculative bubble and a rout is imminent?

A great admirer of the US, Rishi Sunak appears to believe the UK would be well placed sitting in Washington’s slipstream. That means loosening the constraints on financial companies and banks, letting them join the dash for profit, while running down the capacity of public services, including health.

It also means becoming more dependent on foreign investment and imports of essential goods from countries that have lax health and safety laws, weaker workers’ rights and more autocratic or unstable governments.

Whatever kind of potential shock you care to think about – health, financial or trade – the UK is becoming more, not less, vulnerable.

[asustadísimos]

EL SACRIFICIO DE Y EN UCRANIA ES PARA ALGO IMPOSIBLE: ESTIRAR EL MODELO POPULARCAPITALISTA.—

El modelo popularcapitalista no se puede estirar porque está muerto. Es imposible devolverle la vida. Además, intentar resucitarlo es incompatible con la pervivencia del propio sistema capitalista. Solo cabe una nueva vida del capitalismo sin burbujas estúpidas —especialmente la de la vivienda—, con más planificación y fiscos y monedas estables.

No obstante, tanto en Occidente, como en Europa, hay cantidad de contestatarios conservadores obstinados en que esto es solo un 'quítame allá esas pajas' que se resuelve con más 'mercao', caiga quien caiga, incluso con una guerrita mundial, si fuera menester. Es evidente la conexión Ucrania-Argentina.

Nuland dando galletas en Ucrania:

Victoria Nuland, Assistant Secretary of State, handing out cookies to the protesters in Kiev in 2013. Later, she boasted that, apart from cookies, the US gave $5 billion to organize anti-Russian groups in Ukraine. In spite of that, a pro-Russia Presidential candidate won in 2010.

Casualidades:

— El vuelo MH17, de Malaysia Airlines, con 300 personas a bordo, la mayoría holandeses, cayó en 2014 en el Dombás por un misil. Se dijo que la culpa era de Rusia, que lo negó y acusó al piloto ucraniano Vladislav Voloshin. Este se suicidó con una pistola de combate sin número de licencia. Tenía 29 años y era el director del aeropuerto de Mykolaiv, entre Odessa y Crimea.

— En septiembre de 2022, en aguas internacionales pero en zonas económicas de Dinamarca y Suecia, se sabotearon los gasoductos Nord Stream 1 y Nord Stream 2, propiedad de la compañía de gas estatal rusa Gazprom (51%) y de otras europeas, construidos para transportar gas natural desde Rusia a Alemania a través del Mar Báltico. Todo ocurrió un día después de que Polonia y Noruega abrieran el 'Baltic Pipe' alternativo que atraviesa Dinamarca, para transportar gas del Mar del Norte (gas entre Noruega y Reino Unido).​ El 1 de marzo —hace una semana y pico—, Suecia y Dinamarca cerraron sus investigaciones sobre el sabotaje sin encontrar culpables. El 7 de marzo —anteayer— Suecia ingresa en la OTAN. 'Pro memoria': Noruega y Dinamarca son de la OTAN desde su fundación, en 1949.

¿«Houston, tenemos un problema» —guerra mundial— o eso son negocios y aprovechar para crear un ambiente de seguridad cara al estrés social que se avecina por causa del cambio de modelo económico —sustitución de la impresentable orgía popularcapitalista por un capitalismo más planificado—, y lidiar con la tristeza del pobretico propietariado, que, cual Cenicienta a las 00:00, ve cómo la carroza vuelve a calabaza y sus criados, ratoncillos?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZrYsaO8G1aQ

En suma:
• Negocios y
• Control Social.

Pero hay una tercera derivada:
• Justificación de una política fiscal restrictiva (ya hablaremos de cómo esto es justo lo que toca, tras el agotamiento del aceite de ricino monetario).

[CHOSEN]

Marchando otra de planificación central:

Von der Leyen anuncia una compra conjunta de armas como la de las vacunas: "La guerra no es imposible"
La presidenta de la Comisión Europea hace un llamamiento a "propulsar" a la industria armamentista "durante los próximos cinco años"

Espero que en los polideportivos esta vez entreguen armas cortas origen OTAN, en vez de inyecciones superseguras nunca antes probadas en monos.

Y otra que se comenta sola:

"La ministra Saiz reconoce que España necesita 250.000 inmigrantes al año para sostener las pensiones".



-Occidente solo puede contrarrestar a China estando unido.
-Ucrania es tan europea como Rusia.
-Von der Leyen cobra en dólares.
-Borrell es un traidor (o vive amenazado)
-Puigdemont vive en Bruselas.
-...y muchas más.

Deseo que Trump gane las elecciones y mande de un puntapié a Israel a todos los (sionistas) que controlan la política exterior americana escondidos en la CIA.