PPCC: Pisitófilos Creditófagos. Primavera 2024

[Saturio]

https://www.eleconomista.es/empleo/noticias/12845912/06/24/el-absentismo-laboral-en-espana-sigue-en-aumento-14-millones-de-personas-sin-ir-a-trabajar-cada-dia.html

Saludos.

Este es el típico asunto sobre el que no vale dar unas cifras.

Quién hable sobre absentismo tiene que aclarar que está poniendo en el denominador y en el numerador. El denominador debería ser el total de horas anuales que se consideran horario normal según convenio, pacto o contrato para cada trabajador.

El numerador es más complejo. Pero debería incluir todo lo que no son horas de presencia dentro de ese horario u horas fuera de horario como compensación (Por ejemplo, pero no sólo, las horas extras que no se pagan sino que se compensan). Y luego hay que hacer un ratio para cada causa o tipo de causa:

-IT por contingencias comunes
-IT por contingencias profesionales.
-Permisos y licencias retribuidos (Matrimonio, cambio de domicilio, enfermedad u hospitalización de familiares, asistencia a juicios, descanso de las jornadas electorales de las mesas, lactancia...)
-Crédito sindical.
-Suspensiones protegidas (Maternidad, Paternidad, Riesgo durante el embarazo...)
-Permisos y licencias no retribuidos.
-Ausencias no justificadas.

Si sumamos todo eso el ratio no sale un 6%.  Sale bastante más.
Pero es necesario desglosarlo para tener claros los costes y lo que paga cada cual.

Todo lo demás es hablar por hablar.

[tomasjos]

Más oficialización de la burbuja

https://www.larazon.es/economia/precio-vivienda-usada-supera-niveles-burbuja-inmobiliaria_20240604665ec980e73ed600014f185f.html

[Elcasco]

https://www.lavanguardia.com/opinion/20240603/9702532/ue-falta-vivienda.html

La UE y la falta de vivienda

Parece que vivamos en una campaña electoral permanente y es difícil que los discursos de los políticos trasciendan más allá de sus seguidores. Por eso, sorprende de vez en cuando que algún dirigente tenga alguna iniciativa que vaya más allá de las consignas al uso. Oriol Junqueras, que no está pasando quizás por su mejor momento después del retroceso electoral de su partido en las elecciones catalanas, tenía más razón que un santo cuando el pasado domingo, en un mitin en Mataró, pidió a la Comisión Europea que se ponga en serio en el tema de la vivienda.

El argumento del líder republicano es irrefutable: las instituciones europeas se gastaron miles y miles de millones en rescatar los bancos que estaban quebrados en la crisis del 2008 –solo en España se destinaron 60.000 millones– y ahora estaría bien que hicieran un esfuerzo similar para resolver el problema de la vivienda. Esta es una de las grandes asignaturas pendientes de una Europa que se quiere social. Miles de personas atraviesan una situación económica agónica por no poder pagar una hipoteca o un alquiler en tantas ciudades europeas.

Atención a una de las noticias que destacamos hoy en nuestra portada: muchas de las viviendas alquilables en España no están a disposición de los ciudadanos del país, sino que están en oferta para los visitantes turísticos. Sale mucho más a cuenta a los propietarios de estos pisos recurrir al alquiler vacacional que poner las viviendas a disposición de cualquier particular. En estos primeros cuatro meses de este año, los turistas internacionales que optaron por los pisos turísticos crecieron un 34% mientras que los que prefirieron ir a hoteles aumentaron un 11,4%. Son cifras ofrecidas por el INE y que son el mejor ejemplo de la problemática.

Los distintos gobiernos no han sabido abordar la solución a este grave problema que afecta a tantos ciudadanos. A lo mejor desde una institución supranacional como la UE se puede intentar hacer un esfuerzo global para todo el continente. Ojalá la rapidez con la que los países europeos se han adaptado a la necesidad de invertir más en defensa se traduzca en un interés similar en la vivienda.

[Elcasco]

https://www.lavanguardia.com/economia/20240604/9701876/demanda-viviendas-turisticas-crece-tres-veces-mas-rapido-hoteles.html

La demanda en viviendas turísticas crece tres veces más rápido que la de hoteles

El vertiginoso crecimiento del turismo en España, que se acerca a la cifra histórica de 100 millones de visitantes este 2024, no podría entenderse sin el fenómeno de las viviendas de uso turístico, en el ojo del huracán por sus derivadas sobre el mercado habitacional y la convivencia con las comunidades locales. La oferta alojativa en este segmento avanza tres veces más rápido que la de los hoteles, así como su demanda.

En los primeros cuatro meses del año los turistas internacionales que optaron por una vivienda de alquiler (pisos turísticos, residencias unifamiliares, etc) crecieron un 34%, hasta llegar a los 3,15 millones de viajeros. En cambio, los turistas alojados en un hotel se incrementaron tres veces menos, un 11,4%, indican los datos del INE sobre movimientos turísticos publicados ayer.

La gran mayoría de turistas que llegan a España siguen pasando sus vacaciones en hoteles. De los casi 24 millones que visitaron el país hasta abril (un 14,5% más que hace un año, récord histórico), 14,78 millones eligieron este tipo de establecimientos. Ahora bien, la planta hotelera apenas ha aumentado un 3% el último año si se compara con la media del periodo 2016-2019, según datos del Banco de España. “¿Cómo es posible que el número de turistas se dispare de esta manera si no hay muchas más plazas hoteleras? Por los pisos turísticos”, consideran fuentes del sector.

Un estudio de la asociación Exceltur, que agrupa a las 30 mayores empresas del ramo, con datos de AirDNA arroja que el número de viviendas turísticas en las 25 principales ciudades españolas ha subido un 25% en un año, con 287.000 unidades a 31 de marzo. Barcelona, Madrid y Málaga concentran casi la mitad de esta oferta.

Este tipo de alojamiento sólo disminuye en aquellas plazas en las que los gobiernos han tomado decisiones de calado, como en Palma. La ciudad balear ha prohibido totalmente el alquiler turístico y eliminará 4.000 plazas.

En el conjunto del país, las viviendas turísticas aumentaron un 9,2% entre febrero del 2023 y del 2024, hasta los 351.389 apartamentos, lo que supone ya el 1,33% del total de pisos en todo el territorio, según el INE. Andalucía, Comunidad Valenciana y Catalunya son las autonomías con más viviendas para turistas, y de hecho en la Valenciana ya hay casi tantas plazas hoteleras como de alquiler vacacional. Esta comunidad ha experimentado además el mayor incremento de llegada de turistas en el primer cuatrimestre, del 22%, con más de 3 millones de visitantes.

En Canarias, donde el boom turístico ha provocado una oleada inédita de malestar, las llegadas de visitantes extranjeros han pulverizado registros, al alcanzar los 5,45 millones de viajeros en cuatro meses (un 11,4% más). Catalunya se sitúa por su parte como la segunda comunidad en turistas internacionales en estos primeros cuatro meses del año, hasta los 5,02 millones (un 16,3% más).

Esta afluencia sin precedentes de turistas durante los cuatro primeros meses del 2024 han impulsado asimismo el gasto derivado de esta actividad y, en consecuencia, su peso sobre el conjunto de la economía. Hasta abril, los viajeros internacionales desembolsaron 31.513 millones de euros, un 22,6%.

Con este volumen de gasto y la creación de empleo que genera (la hostelería está detrás de la mitad de los 200.000 afiliados que ganó la Seguridad Social en abril), el sector explica en torno a la mitad del crecimiento total de la economía española en el 2023 y para este 2024, el PIB turístico continuará avanzando, coinciden entidades financieras y patronales. Caixabank Research ha previsto un crecimiento del 4% este año, con una participación del turismo en el PIB del 12,9%. Exceltur, por su parte, eleva el peso del turismo al 13,3% de la economía española.

Por comunidades, Catalunya fue la que concentró en abril la mayor parte del gasto turístico, con 1.807 millones de euros, lo que supone un aumento del 11,6% respecto al mismo mes del año anterior. En cambio, la Comunidad de Madrid lidera el gasto medio por turistas, con 1.601 euros.

La actividad turística está así en máximos y todas las previsiones apuntan a una campaña de verano nunca vista. Aerolíneas y grandes hoteleras confirman desde hace días que sus reservan marchan a buen ritmo, si bien el incremento de precios será más moderado que los últimos tiempos. Esto podría explicar el hecho de que el gasto turístico en abril haya aumentado al menor ritmo en doce meses (13,1%), igual que la llegada de visitantes, que por primera vez no alcanza el doble dígito en un mes (8,3% en abril).

[Saturio]

https://www.lavanguardia.com/opinion/20240603/9702532/ue-falta-vivienda.html

La UE y la falta de vivienda

Miles de personas atraviesan una situación económica agónica por no poder pagar una hipoteca o un alquiler en tantas ciudades europeas.

Atención a una de las noticias que destacamos hoy en nuestra portada: muchas de las viviendas alquilables en España no están a disposición de los ciudadanos del país, sino que están en oferta para los visitantes turísticos. Sale mucho más a cuenta a los propietarios de estos pisos recurrir al alquiler vacacional que poner las viviendas a disposición de cualquier particular. En estos primeros cuatro meses de este año, los turistas internacionales que optaron por los pisos turísticos crecieron un 34% mientras que los que prefirieron ir a hoteles aumentaron un 11,4%. Son cifras ofrecidas por el INE y que son el mejor ejemplo de la problemática.

Estoy viendo la solución. Darles esos fondos europeos a esas personas en situación agónica para que puedan competir con los turistas.

[sudden and sharp]

[Derby]

https://www.ft.com/content/6bb51849-1bdd-4315-a0e8-9d1de8c5c918

Blackstone in UK rental housing push with £580mn Vistry deal

Private equity group to buy 1,750 homes as investors seek opportunities in country’s underserved market

Blackstone has reached a deal with housebuilder Vistry to buy about 1,750 new homes for rent as big money managers increasingly see opportunities in the UK’s underserved rental market. 

The £580mn deal by Blackstone and its minority investment partner Regis marks the second big transaction with Vistry in eight months, totalling £1.4bn, and funding more than 4,500 homes. 

The UK rental sector still largely relies on small private landlords but big money managers are increasingly moving into the market. Residential properties have weathered the downturn in commercial real estate caused by higher interest rates better than many other sectors. 

“Institutional private capital can play an important role in providing high-quality housing stock across the UK, particularly in the private rented sector, which is significantly undersupplied today,” said James Seppala, head of European real estate at Blackstone. 

Blackstone has long invested in housing in the US and has swept up tens of thousands of homes in Europe. In the UK, it has focused on funding new-builds.

The properties built under Tuesday’s deal will be managed by Leaf Living, a company launched by Blackstone and Regis in 2021 to manage single-family homes for rent in the UK and already has around 500 homes. A second company Blackstone backs, Sage, has a portfolio of 16,000 affordable homes and is aiming for 30,000 by 2023.

The UK’s largest listed rental landlord, Grainger, manages about 10,000 homes.

Private equity investors in housing have faced scepticism about driving up rents and treatment of tenants.

Blackstone in April said that it was a “myth” that institutional investors such as themselves were “driving up rents”, given it owns less than 1 per cent of the rental housing stock in each market where it operates across the US and Europe.

People living in the UK’s 5.5mn private rental homes have suffered through a period of record rent increases that analysts blame on a rush of tenants back into the market after Covid-19 being met by a shortage of landlords, who have faced rising interest costs on their debt and increased regulation.

The Conservative government’s flagship bill to increase tenants’ protections was scrapped when Prime Minister Rishi Sunak called a snap election for July.

Average private rents rose 8.9 per cent in the year to April, pulling back slightly from a peak of 9.2 per cent in March, according to government statistics. 

Since taking over housebuilder Countryside in 2022, Vistry has shifted its strategy to focus on partnerships to build affordable housing on behalf of the public sector and non-profit organisations. The homes sold to Blackstone are concentrated in the south-east of England, with the sites mainly coming from the land bank for Vistry’s legacy commercial house-building business, the company said. 

“This agreement supports our differentiated business model, with the certainty provided by the pre-selling of homes enabling us to accelerate our build programmes, guarantee work for our supply chain, reduce sales and build costs and create vibrant new communities,” said Vistry chief executive Greg Fitzgerald. 

The focus on these partnerships has helped Vistry fare better in the housing market downturn, which has led other housebuilders to slash their output as high interest rates put off buyers. Vistry said it was on track to increase new home completions by 10 per cent this year.

[Derby]

https://www.reuters.com/markets/deals/europes-third-largest-tour-operator-fti-files-insolvency-2024-06-03/

Europe's third-largest tour operator FTI files for insolvency

BERLIN, June 3 (Reuters) - Europe's third-largest tour operator FTI Group filed for insolvency in the Munich regional court on Monday, the German company said in a statement, as bookings continued to fall even after a recent one-euro buyout proposal.

In addition to sinking orders, multiple suppliers insisted on advance payments, which FTI is no longer able to provide.

The group has opened a hotline and a website for customers, the statement added.

It will have to either cancel or complete only partially all trips from June 4, potentially affecting thousands of holidaymakers at the beginning of the travel-busy summer season.

The German Foreign Ministry said that the tourism industry and travel insurance fund would take care of repatriating and supporting the tourists affected but that it would provide consular support if necessary to ensure a safe return.

The German Economy Ministry called the insolvency "tragic" adding that it could not provide any additional assistance.

The government needs to examine in detail what effect the insolvency will have on the recovery aid funding it had granted FTI during the pandemic, a finance ministry spokesperson said.

"It must be assumed that only small recoveries can be expected from the outstanding claims," the spokesperson said.

The government had been awaiting approval for a sale of receivables as the most economical way to claw back the funds before the company filed for insolvency, the spokesperson said.

The return of the receivables is no longer possible after insolvency, the spokesperson added.

FTI employs 11,000 people worldwide and offers tours to more than 40 destinations around the world, including through its 10,000 partner agencies in Germany.

In the 2022/2023 financial year, it reported annual sales of around 4.1 billion euros ($4.44 billion).

[Derby]

https://mishtalk.com/economics/one-of-every-five-new-york-city-hotels-is-now-a-migrant-shelter/

One of Every Five New York City Hotels is Now a Migrant Shelter

New York City hotel prices have never been higher. Illegal immigration is part of the reason why. Mayoral graft is another.



The New York Times explains Why N.Y.C. Hotel Rooms Are So Expensive Right Now*

In late 2022, as thousands of migrants began to arrive in New York City, city officials scrambled to find places to house them. They quickly found takers: hotels that were still struggling to recover from the pandemic-driven downturn in tourism.

Dozens of hotels, from once-grand facilities to more modest establishments, closed to tourists and began exclusively sheltering migrants, striking multimillion-dollar deals with the city. The humanitarian crisis became the hotel industry’s unexpected lifeline in New York; the hotels became a safe haven for tens of thousands of asylum seekers.

The average daily rate for a hotel stay in New York City increased to $301.61 in 2023, up 8.5 percent from $277.92 in 2022, according to CoStar, a leading provider of commercial real estate data and analysis. During the first three months of 2024, when prices traditionally dip, the average stay was still 6.7 percent higher than during the same time period last year: $230.79 a night, up from $216.38 in 2023.

The use of city hotels for migrants represents a loss of 16,532 hotel rooms, leaving 121,677 hotel rooms for travelers, according to data compiled by CoStar, a leading provider of commercial real estate data and analysis.

That’s 2,812 fewer hotel rooms than existed in the period just before the pandemic — a shortage that is being acutely felt.

About 65,000 migrants are being sheltered in hotels, tent dormitories and other shelters, in large part because of the city’s legal obligation to provide a bed to anyone who needs one. The city projects it will spend $10 billion over three fiscal years on the migrant crisis.

Other factors, including some driven by policies that Mayor Eric Adams and his predecessor, Bill de Blasio, supported, have also contributed to higher room rates.

In September, city officials began to enforce a new law meant to curb the proliferation of short-term rentals, such as those listed on Airbnb, which used to account for over 10 percent of all tourist accommodations in the city. The crackdown obliterated most short-term Airbnb listings — a phenomenon that some observers said might have had an even larger impact on hotel rates than the migrant crisis.

The number of Airbnb listings in New York City for short stays — under 30 days — plummeted by 83 percent to just 3,705 apartments in March 2024, down from 22,247 listings in August 2023, the month before the law went into effect, according to AirDNA, an unaffiliated company that collects data from short-term rental listings. Most of the remaining Airbnb listings in the city, about 90 percent, are only available for stays of over 30 days.

The law, Local Law 18, was aggressively backed by the hotel industry and the hotel workers union, both supporters of Mayor Adams.

Three Things

*Uncontrolled immigration
*An alleged right to shelter
*A corrupt mayor purposely removes listings to benefit a favored political group.

The cost to the city is $10 billions. Taxpayers are on the hook for the cost.

Where Do We Put 8 Million Illegal Immigrants?

On May 23, I noted Competing Forces on Rent, then asked Where Do We Put 8 Million Illegal Immigrants?**

Millions of immigrants keep pouring in. New residential construction has stalled and multi-family construction is in decline. Completions are rising, but is that enough housing?

We have at least a partial answer now.

*https://www.nytimes.com/2024/05/25/nyregion/hotels-prices-migrants-nyc.html
**https://mishtalk.com/economics/competing-forces-on-rent-where-do-we-put-millions-of-immigrants/

[Derby]

https://www.pymnts.com/cpi-posts/fbi-raids-corporate-landlord-in-major-rent-price-fixing-probe/

FBI Raids Corporate Landlord in Major Rent Price-Fixing Probe

The Federal Bureau of Investigations (FBI) conducted an unannounced raid on the Atlanta headquarters of Cortland Management on Wednesday, May 22, marking  a significant escalation in a criminal antitrust investigation by the U.S. Department of Justice (DOJ) into allegations of a nationwide conspiracy to artificially inflate apartment rents. The implications of this probe are far-reaching, potentially affecting millions of renters across the United States.

At the center of this investigation is RealPage, a software and consulting firm accused of helping orchestrate price-fixing among large corporate landlords. RealPage’s system, which provides rental price recommendations based on real-time data from landlords, is alleged to be a key tool in manipulating the rental market. The firm’s influence covers 70% of multifamily apartment buildings and impacts 16 million units nationwide.

The scheme purportedly operated by encouraging landlords to adopt RealPage’s pricing recommendations, a practice they follow 80-90% of the time. This coordinated approach reduces the availability of rental units, driving up prices. One of the architects of RealPage’s system reportedly stated that the aim is to prevent landlords from undervaluing their properties, ensuring consistently higher rents across the board.

The impact of such practices is particularly evident in Atlanta, where software-driven pricing affects 81% of multifamily rental units. Since 2016, rents in the city have surged by 80%, despite rising vacancy rates that would typically result in lower rents. The widespread adoption of RealPage’s pricing recommendations by several landlords between 2015 and 2017, followed by RealPage’s acquisition of its main rival, Lease Rent Option, in 2017, has given the company unprecedented control over rental pricing.

For renters, the implications of this investigation are significant. If the allegations are proven true, the artificially inflated rents have placed undue financial burdens on millions of tenants, with the findings of this probe possibly leading to changes in how rents are set and regulated.

[Derby]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-06-04/two-thirds-of-middle-class-americans-face-hardship-in-poll

Majority of Middle-Class Americans Say They Struggle Financially

Majority of people feel financially insecure in survey
A third of respondents feel ‘extreme stress’ about paying debt

Almost two-thirds of Americans considered middle class said they are facing economic hardship and don’t anticipate a change for the rest of their lives, according to a poll commissioned by the National True Cost of Living Coalition.

By many traditional measures, the US economy is strong, with robust labor, housing and stock markets, as well as solid gross domestic product growth. But the data don’t capture the financial insecurity of millions of households who worry about their future and are unable to save, according to the group, created this year to come up with cost-of-living tools that help gauge economic well-being.

In the large poll of 2,500 adults, 65% of people who earn more than 200% of the federal poverty level — that’s at least $60,000 for a family of four, often considered middle class — said they are struggling financially.

A sizable share of higher-income Americans also feel financially insecure. The survey shows that a quarter of people making over five times the federal poverty level — an annual income of more than $150,000 for a family of four — worry about paying their bills.



Overall, regardless of the income level, almost 6 in 10 respondents feel that they are currently financially struggling.

“The economy is booming, and yet many Americans are still gasping for air financially,” said Jennifer Jones Austin, chief executive officer of the Federation of Protestant Welfare Agencies, an anti-poverty advocacy organization that is part of the team that commissioned the poll. “They simply don’t have the breathing room to plan beyond their present needs.”

About 40% of respondents were unable to plan beyond their next paycheck, and 46% didn’t have $500 saved. The February poll found that more than half said it’s at least somewhat difficult to manage current levels of debt.

The quick rise in interest rates, coupled with high levels of outstanding debt, helps explain the disconnect between economic indicators and how many Americans feel financially.

The poll, conducted by Seven Letter Insight, also highlights the divide between debt-free households who are sheltered from the impact of rising rates and families who are overwhelmed with ballooning loan and credit-card payments. One third of the respondents said they have no debt at all.



The responses on savings also show wide disparities. About one in five respondents have at least $10,000 saved, but 28% have no savings at all. Overall, one in six said they have to make tough decisions on which bill to pay first on a regular basis.

David Jones, co-chair of the National True Cost of Living Coalition, said the polling results crossed party lines.

“It was Republicans, Independents, Democrats expressing the same kinds of issues,” he said. “It’s not going away no matter who becomes president.”

Some of the findings tracked with the Federal Reserve’s annual survey of household economics and decisionmaking, published last month. In that poll, close to half of respondents could cover a $2,000 expense, but 18% of adults said the largest emergency cost they could handle right now using only savings was under $100, and 14% said they could afford an expense of $100 to $499.

[Derby]

https://www.ft.com/content/ad1442b9-0fba-47e6-ac9f-767da9a60021

Opinion FT Wealth
Investors bet on property for long-term despite bumpy ride since pandemic

The wealthy should stick with real estate as their favourite asset class


Commercial property values have been hit by rising interest rates and fears about the health of the office market © REUTERS

It has been a rocky ride for investors in some parts of the property market — the favourite asset class of the wealthy — since the coronavirus outbreak four years ago. The office sector has been the main casualty as people continue to work from home against a tough economic backdrop of higher interest rates. 

The slump has been global. Across Europe office valuations have tumbled more than 30 per cent in cities such as London, Brussels and Zurich since the end of 2019, according to real estate research group Green Street. In the US, the market has been savaged with vacancy rates at generational highs while visits to the office have plummeted. 

The falls in valuations have been particularly steep in San Francisco, where technology companies are more relaxed about working from home. Between March 2019 and March this year, visits to the office dropped 50 per cent in the Californian city, says location data group Placer.ai. Even in New York, where Wall Street banks have put pressure on staff to return to the office, visits are down 17 per cent. 

At first glance, this looks like bad news for the rich, who put about a third of their assets into property, rising to about a half in the Middle East and Latin America, and are big investors in commercial real estate, say wealth managers.





However, other parts of the commercial market have fared better. Prices in the US retail property sector have been buoyed by a lack of supply. New tracking footfall technology has also helped companies pick the best locations for business, with the most popular retail sites and malls attracting shoppers as worries about Covid-19 fade. 

In the industrial sector, which includes warehouses, the news has been upbeat. It was boosted by the pandemic as the ecommerce boom prompted online retailers such as Amazon to look for more space to store goods. Although checked by the rise in interest rates since the middle of 2022, the market is showing signs of recovery in big cities such as London, according to Green Street data.



The residential sector is also in recovery mode. US house prices are back at the highs, having bounced off recent lows at the start of 2023, says the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller index. The biggest support is a lack of housing stock, with owners reluctant to move and lose low mortgage rate deals agreed before monetary tightening. “In markets with very long fixed rates, the US in particular, this has meant the stock of property for sale has fallen by about 30 per cent compared with normal market levels,” says Liam Bailey, global head of research at property agent Knight Frank. “Relatively strong investment returns and wage growth has helped demand remain healthy. This imbalance in supply and demand has helped push prices higher,” he adds. And it is not just in the US where the market is on the up. From Toronto to Singapore and Sydney valuations are mostly rising, according to Knight Frank research. 

More positive news can be found in the market for listed real estate investment trusts, Reits — widely used by wealthy investors because of their liquidity. They have on occasion outperformed the wider stock market in the US in recent weeks, while their private cousins, where performance remains patchy, are expected to start offering better returns. 



Of course, the property market’s health depends on the US Federal Reserve and the central banks that decide monetary policy. With interest rates expected to stay at record 23-year highs of 5.25 per cent to 5.5 per cent in the US for longer than expected, investors and buyers may hold back from big purchases. 

Still, the path for rates is downwards and investors are largely confident inflation can be contained. As Matthew Morgan, head of fixed income at Jupiter Asset Management, put it recently: “We are facing the last hurdle in the killing of inflation, particularly in the US. But in the longer term, I think inflation will be defeated and there will be a soft landing for the US economy.” 

The outlook on the high street in many countries is also positive or at least more positive than it was a year or 18 months ago, which is crucial for a property market that relies on the real economy to drive demand for offices, factories and houses. This is why investors are betting that valuations across the property sectors will rise over the next five years as lower interest rates and a shortage of supply propel them higher. 

It has been a difficult time for property as the pandemic, wars in Ukraine and the Middle East and most critically higher interest rates have arrested valuations in parts of the market around the world. But for the long-term investor, which includes the ultra rich and the family offices that serve them, the attraction of bricks and mortar remains compelling. Although the past is not always a good guide to investments and the direction of a market, the historic upwards trend in property is unlikely to be broken.

It means wealthy investors should stick with real estate as their favourite asset class.

David Oakley is acting editor, FT Wealth. Follow him on X

[Derby]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-06-04/ecb-to-demand-more-cre-loan-provisions-from-some-german-banks

ECB to Seek More CRE Loan Provisions From Some German Banks

Regulator has been reviewing exposures for three years
German lenders among those most affected by ECB’s demands

The European Central Bank will soon push several German lenders to build up higher reserves against property loan defaults, in a move that would cut into their profits.

Banks with large portfolios of commercial real estate loans such as Deutsche Pfandbriefbank AG and some regional lenders jointly known as Landesbanken are one focus of the ECB’s effort, though it’s not clear which will ultimately face demands for higher provisions, people familiar with the matter said.

The review is focused on firms that are heavily exposed to commercial real estate, rather than the country’s top banks, which have broader business models. The ECB has also scrutinized banks from other countries but German lenders will be among those most affected, the people said, asking to remain unnamed as the watchdog’s deliberations are private.



An ECB spokesperson declined to comment, as did a spokesman for Deutsche Pfandbriefbank.(...)

[Derby]

https://www.statista.com/chart/32015/contributors-to-the-sp500-return

Nvidia Carries the World (and the S&P 500) on its Shoulders

[puede ser]

https://elpais.com/ideas/2024-06-02/por-que-cada-vez-menos-gente-se-siente-clase-trabajadora.html
(...)

Muy bueno.
En el imaginario popular-capitalista:
- Clase alta: trabajan para vivir (bien)
- Clase baja: sobreviven para trabajar.
- Clase media: subsisten para no trabajar (Pymer = pequeños y medianos rentistas)