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Las preguntas no son insultos, máxime cuando son adjetivos frecuentemente utililados en este foro. Para todos menos uno, parece ser.Falta Alemania en proceso de desindustrialización y Francia a puntito de caramelo para iniciar un proceso de desapalancamiento. El Euro no se va a ver ajeno a esto.
Cita de: Rota Fortunae en Hoy a las 08:33:30Las preguntas no son insultos, máxime cuando son adjetivos frecuentemente utililados en este foro. Para todos menos uno, parece ser.Falta Alemania en proceso de desindustrialización y Francia a puntito de caramelo para iniciar un proceso de desapalancamiento. El Euro no se va a ver ajeno a esto.Por si acaso no se ha entendido mi comentario.A éstas alturas, si hay algo que no tengo es la piel fina, y menos aún problemas con los insultos, las formas de expresión poco elegantes o las ironías.En otras palabras, no me estaba refiriendo ni a la forma ni al contenido, que cada quién puede decir lo que le venga en gana, faltaba más.Mi comentario tenía que ver con lo discursivo y con la pertinencia.Lo discursivo se refiere a que si yo afirmo -o pregunto, da igual- algo, lo que corresponde es que sea lo más explícito posible en mi planteo como para que cualquiera de los que me lean pueda comprender porqué afirmo -o pregunto- tal cosa. De otra manera, mi comentario se convierte en gratuito y desubicado.Si en vez de citar tu mensaje, para dejar claro a qué me estoy refiriendo, suelto un post al aire diciendo "¿Rota Fortunae es o se hace?", ni tú ni nadie sabrían con seguridad a qué estoy aludiendo. Por lo tanto ese post sería carente de discurso, gratuito e impertinente (en el sentido de la no pertinencia de plantear algo que parece una alusión privada en uno hilo general); en ese caso lo lógico sería enviar un mensaje privado.Sólo eso. En mi particular concepción del mundo, cada vez que ocurre algo así, Dios mata un gatito.
FASCISTILLAS DE LA SEÑORITA PEPIS.—
Byung-Chul Han detecta que en las últimas décadas se ha producido en nuestras sociedades occidentales avanzadas un cambio de paradigma y que la anterior sociedad disciplinaria --basada en imperativos y prohibiciones externos-- ha pasado a ser una sociedad del rendimiento, en la que los individuos se afanan por explotarse a sí mismos. Si antiguamente el quebrantamiento de la norma acarreaba el castigo, ahora el incumplimiento del anhelo provoca frustración.
GP Vs. GPUs: How OpenAI Loses MoneyThe Tulip Folly, by Jean-Léon Gérôme, 1882It's disgusting how much OpenAI ignores Gross Profit. GP was the bedrock of Economics as I was taught it, but Technomics hits the crack rock of ignoring it. On the street, if coke costs 9 and cutting it costs 1, you need to sell crack for 10 or else you're done. If you lose money on each rock, you're not a dealer, you're a crackhead, or a narc. On Wall Street, however, if compute costs $5 billion and you sell it for $4.3, that's somehow a galaxy brain idea. Those are actualish OpenAI numbers, check the FT, and they're actually retarded.OpenAI is just a money laundry for Microsoft and NVIDIA and other evil there. The business never even beings to break even, according to their own projections, and yet they're writing promissory notes worth trillions for decades into the future, as if they're building pyramids. They're pyramid scheming. As the FT says in their reporting, this is not a serious chart and these are not, as Logan Roy said, serious people.Inference is the cost of each query you make on ChatGPT. As you can see, Microsoft gets paid cash upfront, while OpenAI has to take on debt for decadesTo put it in street poetry, OpenAI is violating the 4th Crack Commandment as laid down by the Notorious BIG in '97. Never get high on your own supply. The supply chains of the US of AI are disgustingly incestuous. Microsoft is OpenAI's client for AI and their supplier for compute. OpenAI gives 20% to Microsoft, and Microsoft gives 20% of some Azure and Bing revenue to OpenAI. Is it really a business if you're moving promissory notes from one pocket to another? What are we even talking about? These guys are smoking their own supply and it doesn't just violate economics, it violates Crackanomics.Early techlords like Google could violate Crackanomics because they still respected basic economics. But OpenAI is not Google. Google's marginal cost of serving you a webpage was marginal, while OpenAI's costs on inference alone are astronomical. Every instance of ChatGPT has to reincarnate fully, which is really expensive folly. It's comically and karmically expensive. It's like rubbing a genie bottle to do the dishes. At some point, just you run out of wishes. And I, for one, am here for it. The crash of OpenAI will be delicious, and if we're lucky, it takes the whole US economy with it.Now that AI has to ravage a rainforest to return a brainfart, Capitalism has reached terminal velocity, straight down. It cannot get stupider than this. The business model accounting for 99.9% of American growth is 99.9% a pyramid scheme. The rich are building a pyramid of GPUs over the tomb of GP.Compare this to the recent past, which was stupid but not this stupid. While Google and, even worse, Uber might have lost money at a net income level (GP minus operating expenses), OpenAI (seems to) lose money at a gross profit level, which is very different. They're buying coke for 20 and selling crack at 15, which violates the 0th Crack Commandment, which is make money. Every query you run on OpenAI doesn't just drain the water supply somewhere, it burns money.OpenAI loses money on a GP level, and companies that do this are not supposed to exist. They're supposed to go out of business, because selling quarters for a dime is not a business. But now they're betting the whole US economy on this. It's not the USA anymore, it's USAI. As Economist Jason Furman said when you remove data centers and AI from the US of AI, growth is only 0.1%. GPUs are the tulips for this turnt empire, grown in copious bullshit, and ultimately useless.Let's look at the numbers, as much as we can get them.OpenAI's FinancialsMy sources for this arehttps://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2025/11/has-ed-zitron-found-the-fatal-flaw-with-openai-and-its-flagship-chatgpt.htmlhttps://www.wheresyoured.at/oai_docs/?ref=ed-zitrons-wheres-your-ed-at-newsletterhttps://www.ft.com/content/fce77ba4-6231-4920-9e99-693a6c38e7d5
Why Nvidia Earnings Beat Might Be Bad NewsSome lessons from the 1800s gold rushDuring the California Gold Rush, most miners walked away with little more than sore backs and empty pans, yet a handful of shrewd entrepreneurs made fortunes by serving those chasing the dream. Samuel Brannan was a local store owner who grew rich by selling picks and shovels to eager prospectors at often extortionate mark-ups. Similarly, Levi Strauss (the founder of Levi Jeans) found success supplying tough, reliable clothing to the mining community. Meanwhile, Henry Wells and William Fargo made their initial fortune by offering banking and transport to a booming frontier market and later went on to found the giant Wells & Fargo bank.The reason I want to bring up these stories is that during gold rushes, the money is rarely made from those maniacally panning for gold. Instead, it’s made by the shrewd businesses – tool sellers, clothing suppliers, banks - who offered the services to support the miners trying to strike gold. Fast-forward to this week and we are seeing a similar pattern play out in financial markets in the latest gold rush – the rise of AI.Nvidia: The Modern Day Tool-MakerHeading into this week, attention was firmly fixed on Nvidia’s earnings report. Trading activity surged, and options markets were pricing in a potential swing of about 6.4% in either direction - roughly $280 billion of market value at stake depending on how the numbers landed.The results did not disappoint. Nvidia posted $57 billion in revenue, up 62% from the same period last year and about $2 billion ahead of expectations. Its data-centre division accounted for the bulk of this, bringing in $51.2 billion. Management also issued an upbeat outlook, guiding investors toward $65 billion next quarter, once again above analyst forecasts.Initially, the market cheered: Nvidia’s share price jumped around 5% as investors digested the news. But by the end of the week, the momentum had faded and the stock closed below its pre-earnings level. How did such strong results turn into a slump?As Rasmus Tarp Ulveman pointed out in a thoughtful LinkedIn post, we need to be cautious about judging the state of AI by Nvidia’s share price. Nvidia is the modern-day tool-maker - the company producing the semiconductors, the “picks and shovels”, that other firms use to dig for AI gold. But it is not the one actually sifting through the mud for the valuable applications themselves. A booming demand for GPUs tells us that many companies are trying to strike AI gold, not that they’ve already found it.Why Nvidia’s earnings report might be bad newsIn fact, the sheer scale of Nvidia’s earnings surge might even be a troubling sign. The chart below shows that 62% of S&P 500 firms are now mentioning AI on their earnings calls. That suggests firms are clearly hunting for AI gold, pouring money into experimentation. This enthusiasm is evident in Nvidia’s results - but it also hints at a frenzy of digging rather than a flurry of actual discoveries.That surge in tool-buying masks a more uncomfortable reality: there is still a shortage of profitable, scalable AI projects. Companies are investing heavily in the infrastructure - the picks, shovels, and GPUs - yet the commercial payoffs remain uncertain. Today’s AI systems are impressive, and their potential economic value is easy to imagine, but the harder question is how much of that value companies will actually be able to retain. Investors are assuming rapid adoption and high-margin revenue, even though the business models needed to achieve that are unproven and very expensive to run.This creates a widening gap between what the technology can theoretically do and what firms can profitably deliver - a gap that has undone many previous booms when early optimism ran ahead of commercial reality. And this is why markets sold off after Nvidia’s earnings: not because the numbers were bad, but because they were so strong that they reinforced worries of an AI bubble - one fuelled by enthusiastic spending rather than profitable discoveries.
Cita de: Mistermaguf en Hoy a las 16:11:23Cita de: Rota Fortunae en Hoy a las 08:33:30Las preguntas no son insultos, máxime cuando son adjetivos frecuentemente utililados en este foro. Para todos menos uno, parece ser.Falta Alemania en proceso de desindustrialización y Francia a puntito de caramelo para iniciar un proceso de desapalancamiento. El Euro no se va a ver ajeno a esto.Por si acaso no se ha entendido mi comentario.A éstas alturas, si hay algo que no tengo es la piel fina, y menos aún problemas con los insultos, las formas de expresión poco elegantes o las ironías.En otras palabras, no me estaba refiriendo ni a la forma ni al contenido, que cada quién puede decir lo que le venga en gana, faltaba más.Mi comentario tenía que ver con lo discursivo y con la pertinencia.Lo discursivo se refiere a que si yo afirmo -o pregunto, da igual- algo, lo que corresponde es que sea lo más explícito posible en mi planteo como para que cualquiera de los que me lean pueda comprender porqué afirmo -o pregunto- tal cosa. De otra manera, mi comentario se convierte en gratuito y desubicado.Si en vez de citar tu mensaje, para dejar claro a qué me estoy refiriendo, suelto un post al aire diciendo "¿Rota Fortunae es o se hace?", ni tú ni nadie sabrían con seguridad a qué estoy aludiendo. Por lo tanto ese post sería carente de discurso, gratuito e impertinente (en el sentido de la no pertinencia de plantear algo que parece una alusión privada en uno hilo general); en ese caso lo lógico sería enviar un mensaje privado.Sólo eso. En mi particular concepción del mundo, cada vez que ocurre algo así, Dios mata un gatito.Sí, pero no.El comentario de Rota era oportuno, ingenioso y apropiado.Y las quejas, se miraron, se rechazaron, y hasta la siguiente.
https://x.com/ChrisMartzWX/status/1991337112873189464Saludos.
Commentary: Why China Is Worried About Migrants Returning HomeA file photo shows migrant workers returning home. Photo: VCGAn official from China’s Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs recently stated at a national conference on rural employment that the government must “prevent a large-scale return and idling of migrant workers in their hometowns.” The phrase immediately sparked heated online debate and various interpretations.To understand this directive, one must consider the context. The conference focused on consolidating the achievements of poverty alleviation, with the baseline goal of preventing any large-scale slide back into poverty. A special campaign to promote employment for people who were lifted out of poverty after leaving their hometowns but have since moved back is a key part of this strategy. The policy is dubbed the “two stabilities and one prevention”: stabilizing the scale of employment and the income of the formerly impoverished population, and preventing a large-scale return to poverty caused by unemployment. In this context, the purpose of preventing a “large-scale return and idling” becomes clear.This wording is unusual, which raises the question: Is a “large-scale return” already happening, or are there warning signs? Publicly available information doesn’t confirm this. However, the fact that it was a major topic at a national conference shows it is a risk that cannot be ignored. The number of formerly impoverished people in the workforce has remained above 30 million for four consecutive years. Should a mass return occur, its effects would hardly be confined to formerly impoverished areas. The risk should not be underestimated and must be addressed proactively.