Hablemos de Europa

[muyuu]

https://twitter.com/YanniKouts/status/582558786348400640

Details of #Greece govt's reform & fiscal proposals [via @toxrima]:
- 2015 privatizations to bring in €1.5bn (€700ml less than previous target). Privatizations to include Piraeus Port Authority, 14 regional airports, Horse Racing Agency.

Fiscal measures are calculated to bring in €3.7bn. These measures are as follows:
- €725ml from tax checks in deposits that were sent abroad
– €350ml from fight against VAT fraud
– €350ml from TV licenses
– €600ml from tax & social security arrears arrangement
– €300ml from reform of Personal Tax Code
– €270ml from tax receipts lottery, acc to Portugal model
– €250ml from fight against oil and tobacco smuggling
– €225ml from enhanced tax collecting measures
– €200ml from Internet gambling

Cost of non-implementation of previous bailout measures up to €1bn:
– Greek gov't says will not implement automatic deficit cuts in supplementary pension funds (estimated ~€326ml)
– Christmas welfare for pensioners that live below poverty level (est. €600ml)
– Social Solidarity welfare program to remain intact (€82ml)

A bad bank for NPLs
– Greek gov't proposes setting up a bad bank in association with EIB, by using EFSF/HFSF's €10.9bn leftover monies and initiating a non-judicial settlement scheme.

Debt swaps
– Greek gov't proposes 'reprofiling' of the Greek debt to the Eurozone via a 'menu' of GDP-linked.

Drastic cut of early retirements
– Greek gov't proposes a drastic cut of early retirements and a cut in tax exemptions.

Greek gov't proposes eight reform bills
– Enhanced autonomy of the Tax Authority
– Drastic cut early retirements that 'undermine viability of pension system
- Personal tax reform bill and drastic cuts in tax exemptions
- Automatic clearing of tax payers' arrears and vice versa of State arrears to vendors & citizens
- Introduction of a bill for increased fiscal governance
- Non-judicial arrangement of Non-Performing Loans (NPLs)
- New Civil Law code that will enhance clearance of civil cases through electronic documents
- A new bill to enhance credibility and institutional independence of Hellenic Statistics Authority.

[muyuu]

Siguen con el tira y afloja. Lo cierto es que de momento no les dan los fondos.

[Mad Men]

Una sobre estadísticas cocinadas, esas que les gustan tanto a los políticos.

Alemania tiene una tasa de paro de 3 millones (6.9%), pero a la vez reparte ayudas a 7 millones de personas (14.5%).

Es lo que tiene el sistema, queda mejor vender lo irreal, antes que difundir lo que realmente pasa.Y es que el milagro entre comillas alemán lo sustentan a lo sumo un puñado pequeño de Lands, cualquiera que se de un garbeo por el país de los Germanos, se dará cuenta de que existen zonas y zonas.

Que hay que hacer para no ser un parado "oficial" en Alemania? Pues cumplir uno de los siguientes requisitos.

Si eres  mayor de 59 años y  llevas durante más de 1 año en situación de parado.

Si haces una formación o curso dedicado a parados.
Aquí un inciso: el 16 de marzo un reportaje televisivo ( RTL) mostró en qué consisten estos cursos. Un ejemplo radical: ofrecían un taller para pasear a llamas. Sí a llamas, el animal que no muerde pero sí escupe. También se hacen talleres emocionales y sobre cómo escribir un CV.

Si estás de baja por enfermedad. Atentos: al menos un 40% de las personas en paro de larga duración presentan bajas por enfermedades psicológicas, sobre todo depresión y ansiedad

Si aceptas trabajar por 1 Euro (el Minijob llevado al extremo) con el fin de aumentar tu ayuda

Si una agencia de empleo externa se encarga de buscarte un empleo

Y ya por último, si tienes un Minijob (cobrar menos de 450 Euros)

http://focalizalaatencion.com/2015/03/29/alemania-mas-de-7-millones-dependientes-de-ayudas-pero-unicamente-un-paro-de-3-millones/

Hay tanta diferencia entre el porcentaje de parados de Alemania y España? Quizás no tanta, aunque de existir existe.

Porque no dejamos de cocinar, y exponemos la realidad tal y como es?

[muyuu]

Siguen con el tira y afloja. Lo cierto es que de momento no les dan los fondos.

Y ahora, tiran: http://www.eleconomista.es/mercados-cotizaciones/noticias/6601117/04/15/Grecia-amenaza-con-no-pagar-al-FMI-algo-que-no-ha-ocurrido-nunca.html

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/11509302/Greece-threatens-international-default-without-fresh-bail-out-cash.html

No hay pasta, no hay acuerdo... y los pagos se acercan.

EDITO para añadir: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-04-01/greece-hints-default-russian-pivotwill-not-respect-imf-deadline-what-happens-next

[Sidartah]

Del primer link:

"No nos han dado más euros desde agosto, no hay ningún país en el mundo que pague sus deudas solo con sus recursos propios, sin pedir dinero prestado", señala Nikos Voutzis, ministro del Interior griego, a Der Spiegel.

 

Aquí tenemos el método para pegarse la vida padre, jugando con intereses y plazos. Cuando todo reviente reventaremos todos a la vez, así que no hay "moral hazard" 

[muyuu]

También es cierto que no son los únicos metidos en esa locura de pagar la deuda con más deuda. Véase EEUU y Japón en la última década, brutal. Y ahora China, también. 

Pero dicho así es cierto que llama la atención.

[Mad Men]

También es cierto que no son los únicos metidos en esa locura de pagar la deuda con más deuda. Véase EEUU y Japón en la última década, brutal. Y ahora China, también. 

Pero dicho así es cierto que llama la atención.

Respecto a EE.UU juega con su enfermo dolar con salud de hierro  como dijo pp.cc, lo que otorga grandes privilegios.

Los Japoneses no piden dinero al extranjero, se lo dejan ellos mismos.

Y los Españoles....... pues vete a saber tú, porque ni tienen, ni pueden pedir en base a su peso. Suerte de tener a papá Euro para que no caigamos en default, porque por nosotros mismos no nos aguantamos en pie. Y la cuestión es, quien ejecutará los cambios estructurales? O esperaremos hasta el último momento, es decir, asta que no dé mas de sí?

EE.UU no caerá por su gran peso y porque a nadie le interesa tampoco, ya se montan bien el tinglado para que todos tengan alguna relación intima con el tío Sam.

Los Japos son muy patriotas, si tienen que dar pasta a fondo perdido al país se la da, y si tienen que recortarse el sueldo se lo recortan sin rechistar, pues el país es como una gran familia, además de que les queda el concepto de honor de sus antepasados.

España, ni lo uno ni lo otro, pues pintar no pinta nada, al menos a nivel mundial, y aquí el que puede roba, se enchufa o manipula, es decir patriotas de bandera pero no de corazón.

[muyuu]

Talking to Yanis Varoufakis (Harald Schumann On The Trail - the complete interview)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qNItYoJhgmk




http://www.economist.com/news/europe/21647691-greece-looks-china-and-russia-help-cannot-get-around-its-euro-zone-partners-running-out?fsrc=scn/tw/te/bl/ed/cashcrunch

[saturno]

Beppe Grillo:
‘EU has already collapsed’– Beppe Grillo to RT

http://rt.com/op-edge/246265-italy-economy-crisis-euzorone-grillo/

Interesting... A Italia se le dispara la prima, por cierto

[muyuu]

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/11513341/Greece-draws-up-drachma-plans-prepares-to-miss-IMF-payment.html

Greece draws up drachma plans, prepares to miss IMF payment
'We are a Left-wing government. If we have to choose between a default to the IMF or a default to our own people, it is a no-brainer,' says senior Greek official

Greece is drawing up drastic plans to nationalise the country's banking system and introduce a parallel currency to pay bills unless the eurozone takes steps to defuse the simmering crisis and soften its demands.
Sources close to the ruling Syriza party said the government is determined to keep public services running and pay pensions as funds run critically low. It may be forced to take the unprecedented step of missing a payment to the International Monetary Fund next week.
Greece no longer has enough money to pay the IMF €458m on April 9 and also to cover payments for salaries and social security on April 14, unless the eurozone agrees to disburse the next tranche of its interim bail-out deal in time.
“We are a Left-wing government. If we have to choose between a default to the IMF or a default to our own people, it is a no-brainer,” said a senior official.
“We may have to go into a silent arrears process with the IMF. This will cause a furore in the markets and means that the clock will start to tick much faster,” the source told The Telegraph.
Syriza’s radical-Left government would prefer to confine its dispute to EU creditors but the first payments to come due are owed to the IMF. While the party does not wish to trigger a formal IMF default, it increasingly views a slide into pre-default arrears as a necessary escalation in its showdown with Brussels and Frankfurt.
The view in Athens is that the EU creditor powers have yet to grasp that the political landscape has changed dramatically since the election of Syriza in January and that they will have to make real concessions if they wish to prevent a disastrous rupture of monetary union, an outcome they have ruled out repeatedly as unthinkable.

(gráfica de los vencimientos)
 http://cloud.highcharts.com/show/evuhin

“They want to put us through the ritual of humiliation and force us into sequestration. They are trying to put us in a position where we either have to default to our own people or sign up to a deal that is politically toxic for us. If that is their objective, they will have to do it without us,” the source said.
Going into arrears at the IMF – even for a few days – is an extremely risky strategy. No developed country has ever defaulted to the Bretton Woods institutions. While there would be a grace period of six weeks before the IMF board declared Greece to be in technical default, the process could spin out of control at various stages.
Syriza sources say are they fully aware that a tough line with creditors risks setting off an unstoppable chain-reaction. They insist that they are willing to contemplate the worst rather than abandon their electoral pledges to the Greek people. An emergency fall-back plan is already in the works.
“We will shut down the banks and nationalise them, and then issue IOUs if we have to, and we all know what this means. What we will not do is become a protectorate of the EU,” said one source. It is well understood in Athens such action is tantamount to a return to the drachma, even though Syriza would rather reach an amicable accord within EMU.
Eurozone creditors may be willing to release enough funds to cover Greece’s government costs on April 14, but only if Syriza pays the IMF first. However, trust has already collapsed to the point where key ministers in Greece no longer believe the assurances from Brussels, fearing they may be lured into a trap. The mood has become poisonous.
“They want us to impose capital controls and cause a credit crunch, until the government becomes so unpopular that it falls," said one official.
"They want make an example of us, and demonstrate that no government in the eurozone has a right to have mind of its own. They don’t believe that we will walk away, or that the Greek people will back us, and they are wrong on both counts,” he said.
Syriza is still hoping that German Chancellor Angela Merkel can defuse the crisis, deeming her a “real ally”, but fear that she will be confronted with a fait accompli beyond even her control.
Bank of America warned that a “critical sequence of events could unfold” once Greece misses a payment to the IMF. It would trigger a parallel default to the eurozone bail-out fund (EFSF) under the legal master agreement, and might force the EFSF to cancel its loan packages and demand immediate repayment. This in turn would trigger a default on Greek government bonds issued under the bail-out accord.
The situation is now critical. Even if Greece manages to cobble together enough money to cover the April deadline, it owes the IMF a further €200m on May 1 and €763m on May 12. A Greek official told EMU counterparts at a teleconference on Wednesday that the country has run out of money. "There is no way we can go beyond April 9," the official reportedly said.
The drama comes after the creditors refused to rubber stamp Athens' latest bid to unlock funds, raising objections over Syriza plans to boost union powers in collective bargaining and boost pensions for lower income groups.

(préstamos IMF)
http://cloud.highcharts.com/show/ovegow

Brussels continues to insist on more concrete pledges, despite receiving a 26-page list of reforms on Wednesday. Athens hopes to raise €6.1bn in 2015 by clamping down on fuel smuggling and tax evasion, introducing new levies on luxury goods, and reforming public procurement. It estimated funding needs at €19bn over the coming year, meaning that there will inevitably be fresh tensions over the summer even if there a deal on interim funds until June.
Former European Commission head Jose Manuel Barroso warned Greece that they have a moral obligation to other states, describing the demands for more time and money as "completely unacceptable".
“We should remember that there are poorer countries that are lending money to Greece, so to propose a cut to their debt would be certain to receive a no from their partners," he said.

[lectorhinfluyente1984]

Un artículo muy completo de Carlos Sánchez, que toca casi todos los palos (Alemania, España, Grecia), Erhard, etc.

http://blogs.elconfidencial.com/espana/mientras-tanto/2015-04-05/la-traicion-de-merkel-y-el-susto-de-rajoy_753683/

[muyuu]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-32202768

Greece Nazi occupation: Athens asks Germany for 279bn euros

he Greek government says Germany owes Greece nearly €279bn (£204bn; $303bn) in war reparations for the Nazi occupation during World War Two.
It is the first time Greece has officially calculated what Germany allegedly owes it for Nazi atrocities and looting during the 1940s.
However, the German government says the issue was resolved legally years ago.
Greece's radical left Syriza government is making the claim while struggling to meet massive debt repayment deadlines.
Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras raised the reparations issue when he met German Chancellor Angela Merkel in Berlin last month.
The new figure given by Greek Deputy Finance Minister Dimitris Mardas includes €10.3bn for an occupation loan that the Nazis forced the Bank of Greece to pay.
"According to our calculations, the debt linked to German reparations is 278.7bn euros," Mr Mardas told a parliamentary committee investigating responsibility for Greece's debt crisis.
Mr Mardas said the reparations calculation had been made by Greece's state general accounting office.

Berlin paid 115m Deutschmarks to Athens in 1960 in compensation - a fraction of the Greek demand. Greece says it did not cover payments for damaged infrastructure, war crimes and the return of the forced loan.
Germany insists the reparations issue was settled in 1990 legally and politically before Germany reunified.
Syriza politicians have frequently blamed Germany for the hardship suffered by Greeks under the tough bailout conditions imposed by international lenders.
Mr Tsipras is trying to renegotiate the €240bn EU-IMF bailout that saved Greece from bankruptcy. Greece has not received bailout funds since August last year, as the lenders are dissatisfied with the pace of Greek reforms.
A Greek repayment of €448m to the International Monetary Fund is due this Thursday.
Greek Finance Minister Yanis Varoufakis has said that Greece "intends to meet all obligations to all its creditors, ad infinitum".

[saturno]

En v/F -- Medidas del Gobierno Valls para fomentar la inversion.
La presentacion es inteligible

http://www.slideshare.net/lesechos2/la-prsentation-des-mesures-pour-une-acclration-de-linvestissement-et-de-lactivit?ref=http://www.lesechos.fr/economie-france/budget-fiscalite/0204288031128-investissements-valls-donne-des-gages-aux-entreprises-1109442.php

Hay un sistema de libretas de ahorro donde los fondos se invierten en PME

Otro pasa por una modificacion de los reglamentos UE para permitir a compañias de seguros, mútuas, en economia productiva.

El último punto es un sistema de puntos sociales de carrera (como la formación) que
validan para jubilacion y se contabilizan por el trabajador (no por la empresa)

[saturno]

Pierre Sabatier (en v/F, todo muy clarito)[2]

Prix immobiliers : la bulle de la pierre est-elle sur le point de se dégonfler ?

Ya era hora escuchar la demostración en medios galos

Explicacion de la burbuja
-- La franja de edad de adquisicion es de 30 a 56 años. Después es franja de edad vendedora

-- Cambio de ciclo demográfico.
   Durante 25 años aparecian 0,4 M compradores más respecto de vendedores  cada 5 años 
   A partir de 2010 aparecen 1,3M de vendedores más que compradores cada 5 años.
  (Y recuerden que FR es el único pais europeo que ha mantenido una politica pro-natalista)

-- La salida del túnel de Friggit  (donde los ciclos se mantenían dentro de la relación con la capacidad real de compra[1]) se produjo
    -- por bajada de tipos de interés  (antes 10-15%, hoy de 2-4%)
    -- por alargamiento de plazos (de un promedio de 15 a superar hoy 21 años)
    -- por laxismo de condiciones bancarias : el aporte se redujo del 60 al 20% de aporte actual

La particularidad gala (10 años de retraso respecto de los demas países) se debe a:
-- La intervencion del Estado que fomentó el alea moral de la población: Si el Estado dice que compremos, es una garantia   
   En Francia la compra de un pisito salía por 15% o incluso 0% del precio combinando alquiler durante 10 años, y deduccion fiscal.


El final de la burbuja
--- Bajada de 35 a 40% en el margen de 5 a 10 años, porque los vendedores siguen siendo solventes
--  Imposibilidad para el Estado de mantener la politica de subvencion a la compra respecto de otras prioridades.
--  Endurecimiento de las condiciones bancarias (plazos, y aporte inicial)
--  Contexto deflacionario de los próximos 30 años sobre la capacidad de compra

=> Vuelta lenta, pero forzosa al túnel de Friggit
Y en general, un cambio de sociedad profundo, para una sociedad que identifica la riqueza al ladrillo.

El alquiler:
-- Seguirá el mismo canal bajista que la vivienda simplemente porque no se puede esperar que las empresas repercutan esta carga en  salarios en un contexto de PIB reducido


Saludos


[1] Para un estudio historico de los precios inmobiliarios del CGEDD por Friggit
http://www.cgedd.developpement-durable.gouv.fr/prix-immobilier-evolution-1200-a1048.html
[2] El hilo en v/FR de donde lo traigo está
http://www.bulle-immobiliere.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=168&t=91121&sid=10d4d6c16b5882978d55d65242519e1d

[lectorhinfluyente1984]

Mil gracias Saturno!

Friggit y el tunel de Friggit... qué gran descubrimiento! ya sabía yo que leyendo solo en espanish y en inglish nos perdemos información relevante... lost in translation