Hablemos de Europa

[muyuu]

Las casas de apuestas dan favorito al "sí" ahora mismo en el #Greferendum.

[lectorhinfluyente1984]

Sobre lo discutido acerca de deudas públicas (im)pagables hubo este artículo de Kike Vázquez hace poco:

http://blogs.elconfidencial.com/mercados/perlas-de-kike/2015-01-15/la-deuda-publica-nunca-se-paga_621614/

[lectorhinfluyente1984]

By now it should be clear to all that the only reason why Germany has been so steadfast in its negotiating stance with Greece is because it knows very well that if it concedes to a public debt reduction (as opposed to haircut on debt held mostly by private entities such as hedge funds which already happened in 2012), then the rest of the PIIGS will come pouring in: first Italy, then Spain, then Portugal, then Ireland.

(...)

In this way, while the outcome of the Greek situation is currently unknown, it has also become moot, because at this very moment, politicians from Spain's Podemos to Italy's Five Star movement are drafting memos demanding that the IMF evaluate their own debt sustainability. Or rather unsustainability.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-07-02/did-imf-just-open-pandoras-box

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-07-02/nsa-leak-reveals-both-merkel-and-schauble-saw-greek-debt-unsustainable-even-after-ha

[muyuu]

[muyuu]

El presidente del Parlamento Europeo Martin Schulz pide abiertamente un "tecnócrata" para reemplazar el gobierno de Grecia si sale el "sí".

http://www.theguardian.com/business/2015/jul/02/imf-greece-needs-extra-50bn-euros

Schulz said: “New elections would be necessary if the Greek people vote for the reform programme and thus for remaining in the eurozone and Tsipras, as a logical consequence, resigns.”

In an outburst that was extraordinary coming from the most senior official in the EU parliament, he argued that the radical left Syriza government should be replaced by a technocratic administration.

“If this transitional government reaches a reasonable agreement with the creditors, then Syriza’s time would be over,” he said. “Then Greece has another chance.”

http://www.euronews.com/2015/07/03/tsipras-no-vote-will-mean-a-better-deal-with-lenders/

Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras insisted on Thursday that a ‘no’ vote in Sunday’s referendum would give him a chance to negotiate a better outcome with the country’s lenders.

He made the promise in an interview with Greek TV, as voters decided whether to accept the latest debt deal.

But Tsipras was forced to concede that a ‘yes’ vote would likely bring a quick end to capital controls.

“If the ‘yes’ vote wins, the banks will open but with an unviable deal. But if that is the decision of the Greek people – either from fear, pressure or choice – we will respect it,” he told Greek TV.

“But if the ‘no’ vote wins, and the ‘no’ is stronger, I assure you, the very next day I will be in Brussels and a deal will be signed,” Tsipras added.

His comments came as European Parliament President Martin Schultz called for Tsipras and his team to be replaced by a technocrat government if Greeks voted ‘yes’.

The International Monetary Fund warned on Thursday that Greece would not survive without massive debt relief and 50 billion euros in new financing.

But IMF chief Christine Lagarde reiterated that Athens wouldn’t get any special payment terms from them.

One analyst told the Associated Press news agency that most lenders were uneasy at the prospect of debt relief.

“When the IMF calls for a debt relief it doesn’t include its own lending. The European Central Bank has done the same exact thing. The ECB is in favour of debt relief for Greece too, just not the debt that the ECB is holding.” said Megan Greene, Chief Economist of Manulife Asset Management.

She added that Germany isn’t in favour of any debt relief.

As ATM queues grew longer on Thursday, Bloomberg reported that Greek banks’ liquidity reserves would “probably only last until Monday”.

As much as the the public feared cash shortages for household expenses, business leaders said they needed emergency liquidity to prevent the wider economy grinding to a halt.

http://www.globalpost.com/article/6602491/2015/07/02/schulz-says-greek-govt-should-resign-after-yes-vote
Agence France-Presse on Jul 2, 2015 @ 5:25 PM

European Parliament president Martin Schulz said his faith in the Greek government had reached "rock bottom," and that he hopes it resigns after Sunday's referendum.
Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras has urged citizens to vote against European Union and International Monetary Fund bailout conditions in the plebiscite Sunday. Tsipras announced the balloting after talks with creditors broke down, leading Greece to default on a debt payment and stoking fears it could crash out of the euro.
Schulz on Thursday told German Handelsblatt business daily that "new elections would be necessary if the Greek people vote for the reform programme and thus for remaining in the eurozone and Tsipras, as a logical consequence, resigns."
The time between the departure of Tsipras' hard-left Syriza party and new elections would have to "be bridged with a technocratic government, so that we can continue to negotiate," Schulz was quoted as saying.
"If this transitional government reaches a reasonable agreement with the creditors, then Syriza's time would be over," he said. "Then Greece has another chance."
Schulz charged that Tsipras was "unpredictable and manipulates the people of Greece, in a way which has almost demagogical traits."
"My faith in the willingness of the Greek government to negotiate has now reached rock bottom," he said
Greek Finance Minister Yanis Varoufakis said Thursday the government "may very well" quit if the public went against it in Sunday's plebiscite by voting for more austerity in return for international bailout funds.

Posiblemente pronto en sus pantallas, otro hombre de Goldman Sachs con el control en Grecia.

[muyuu]

UBS ve más probable el Grexit si sale el "no".

[lectorhinfluyente1984]

[muyuu]

Hombre, manejan estimaciones pero no dicen ver el futuro 

El discurso de Varoufakis requiere mucha fe:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uJOEW6TEaI8

Grecia tiene cierta posición de fuerza en la negociación, pero de ahí a poder garantizar cosas como esas tan tajantemente va un trecho.

[lectorhinfluyente1984]

Está bien que lo traigas Muyuu me parece relevante; en todo caso la sorna era contra los "predictores" en general; me parece que hay demasiados "imponderables".

Quizás alguien sí "sepa" algo, pero ese alguien no nos lo dirá en voz alta, eso seguro

[Republik]

El gran problema griego es saber hasta qué punto la amenaza de Grexit y en general el cambio político han incidido en el empeoramiento económico del país, que tenía previsiones incluso mejores que las españolas para este año. Esto tampoco es que sea una maravilla porque la "bonanza" es claramente limitada en el tiempo en nuestro caso, pero para ellos, con el presupuesto primario cuadrado, podría haber sido una prórroga interesante para más adelante ponerse a renegociar la deuda. Cuando se cae muy bajo es fácil rebotar, y si España puede crecer este año al 3,5%, Grecia podría haberlo hecho al 4% y sostenerlo más en el futuro (es una economía más pequeña y el turismo se comporta bastante bien y pesa lo suficiente en su economía para que el tirón se note).

Porque lo que está ocurriendo en Grecia es un combinado letal de huída de capital doméstico, no-entrada del foráneo y cierta contracción de la actividad interna, lo que agrava los problemas fiscales del país al formar un cóctel letal para la economía.

ALemania debería empezar a enseñar una hoja de ruta creible para todo esto de los eurobonos ligados a la consecución del equilibrio fiscal estructural.

[muyuu]

La popularidad de Schlaeube en Alemania está en máximos.

[muyuu]

http://europaono.com/2015/07/03/zingales-greek-dilemma-ma-cedere-ai-ricatti-sempre-un-errore/

The Greek Dilemma / Ma cedere ai ricatti è sempre un errore
03/07/2015 / L. ZINGALES
Article written for the Italian Magazine L’Espresso.
Qui l’articolo originale sul sito de L’Espresso.

Sunday the Greeks will choose, but from what choices? Listening to Prime Minister Tsipras, they could say no to the humiliating conditions imposed by Troika or yes to eternal austerity. Listening to the opposition they could say yes to Europe and no to the Euro. Both affirmations are true, but they conveniently omit part of the truth, or rather what will truly happen after the victory of either front. Tsipras omits saying that if the No wins, less than a radical change in Europe’s behavior towards Greece, little can allow Greece to stay in the Euro, a result preferred by the majority of Greeks. The opposition omits saying that this plan of austerity pushes away the risk of bankruptcy, but doesn’t eliminate it. If they don’t change things, after this plan there will probably be another, and another still, because the Greek debt is not sustainable, less than a radical change in Europe’s behavior towards Greece.

It is clear that a Greek that wants to leave the Euro will vote No and one who is okay with the politics imposed by Europe will vote Yes. But these represent the minority. The majority of Greeks wants concessions from Europe, but also wants to stay in the Euro: how should they vote? What makes this referendum unusual is exactly this. In the choice between monarchy and republic, between abortion or not, the consequences of their choice is clear, because they are predetermined. In this referendum they are not. It is asked of citizens that they vote on a negotiation strategy and the main difference between the Yes front and the No one is in the hypotheses that are assumed about how Europe will react. Syriza’s belief is that Europe is more afraid of losing Greece than Greece is of losing Europe. If it were the case, a No victory would force Europe to yield in negotiations so as to avoid Greece’s exit. On the contrary, the beliefs of the opposition are that more is obtained from Europe with good manners than with bad. In this case, a Yes victory, with the probable fall of Tsipras, would bring along the formation of a new government, more in synchrony with Europe. Knowing that the survival of the new government depends on concessions that it manages to obtain from Troika, the latter would be essentially forced to make generous compromises.

But if we analyze the incentives of the involved parties, the two hypotheses are equally probable. If European leaders look at their short-term election incentives, there is no doubt that for them, in particular Merkel and Schäuble, it is more costly to give in to Greece’s blackmail than to be considered co-responsible for Greece’s exit from the Eurozone. In the first case, they would risk losing a considerable slice of their own electorate in favor of the AfD anti-euro, in the second case they wouldn’t (they could maybe even gain votes).

If instead European leaders look at a more long-term prospect, the result doesn’t change. With a long-term prospect, the negotiation between Europe and Greece must be analyzed even for the consequence it will have on the future negotiations with other countries. To give in to black mail would only increase the incentives to blackmail. For this – shortsighted or not – at this point European leaders cannot give into the blackmail from a Greece that votes No but also wants concessions.

This means that the Yes victory is granted? Absolutely not. My analyses assume that all the voters are perfectly informed and act in a rational manner. With only five days left of campaign, in a tense climate, with closed banks, both the hypotheses are not realistic. At the end the winner will be he who manages to dump responsibility for the current situation on the adversary: for Syriza banks are closed by fault of Europe, for the Yes front by fault of Syriza. I am only a fervent supporter of a more democratic Europe, where the people decide and not the bureaucrats in Brussels or Frankfurt, but is this true democracy?

[CHOSEN]

Me resulta curioso que la verdadera bomba de flotación al sistema de deuda (y clave de bóveda de todo el asunto) la que es referida a la Socieda Anónima, haya pasado bastante inadvertida

La deuda da poco para debatir.
Es un bocado minúsculo.
- Unos dicen que es impagable -rectas que nunca se tocan-
- Otros decimos que es pagable -rectas que se tocan en el infinito-.
En matemáticas dos líneas paralelas se definen como aquellas que se cortan en el infinito. Por chocante y antiintuitivo que sea, esto es así. Gracias a esto existe el láser y el transistor.
La existencia (matemática) del infinito no es moco de pavo.

El tema de la deuda pública, como las líneas paralelas, entra de lleno en esas cosas que no van a cambiar por mucho que nos empeñemos en llamarlas de una forma u otra.
Me remito al caso de Mali, Mozambique o Senegal. No se puede defender seriamente que la deuda griega es impagable cuando tenemos a estos países con una deuda brutal cualificada como pagable. Y no me refiero a lo que tu o yo creemos.
Me refiero a que esa deuda figura como pagable allí donde se identifica, sea la ONU, el FMI, Amnistía Internacional o la federación comercial de países africanos.
Si no la pueden pagar... eso es algo que ya no le importa a nadie. Hasta el infinito y mas allá, como las asíntotas. En cualquier caso será condonable (o no).
A eso es a lo que voy.

Creo que deberíamos ir ya entrando más en la dialéctica globalizadora y asumir las reglas del juego, que desgraciadamente son bastante diferentes de las que nos gustaría que fueran.

[muyuu]

Interesante que los pensionistas opten tanto por el "sí".

[Lego]

El factor generacional brillando como una supernova en esas tablas.

Sería genial tener la misma estadística de la opinión en los demás países de Europa.  Igual así se hablaba menos de "Grecia" y más de lo que en realidad está averiado.