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Autor Tema: Tema: PPCC-Pisitófilos Creditófagos-Otoño 2022  (Leído 451099 veces)

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Re: Tema: PPCC-Pisitófilos Creditófagos-Otoño 2022
« Respuesta #2070 en: Noviembre 19, 2022, 14:27:12 pm »

]
Se avecina un 2023 de tensión en los alquileres, frenazo en el precio de los pisos y vuelco en el perfil de compradores de vivienda
Inma Benedito | 17 nov. 2022


(Las organizaciones se financian con cuotas de socios. Y el equipo portavoz se elige en Asamblea. No se puede criticar lo que hace una organizacion sin imputarlo a sus socios, Organicense.)

Cómo que no hay asociaciones y lobbies popularcapilistas?

https://www.asval.com/comite-de-direccion/

Por poner solo un ejemplo.

Y traes una asociacion profesional (socimi et al),
Luego, explicame quë argumento es el tuyo que invalida lo que digo,

De caracter sociopolitico significa Asamablea por voto individual (vinculado a inquilinos o al propietario) capaz de sentarse en la mesa con ASVAL para llegar o coordinalr  un acuerdo,

ASVAL tiene voto por título, no por individuo, Tantas fincas, tantos votos en la Asamblea,

https://www.asval.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/ASVAL-Estatutos-web.pdf
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Artículo 14º. La Asamblea General es el órgano soberano de deliberación y decisión.
La Asamblea General estará constituida por la totalidad de los Asociados de Número,
cada uno de los cuales tendrá derecho a un voto por (i) vivienda arrendada, según el
número de viviendas destinadas al arrendamiento que cada uno ostente (directa o
indirectamente, a través de los propietarios de viviendas en alquiler a los que en su caso
represente), o por (ii) cada vivienda que esté desarrollando como promotor/titular,
dentro de proyectos llave en mano específicos destinado al alquiler; en ambos casos a 31
de diciembre del año anterior al corriente, siempre que dicho Asociado de Número no
tenga ninguna cuota de sostenimiento pendiente de pago.
Los Asociados de Honor tendrán derecho a asistir a las reuniones de la Asamblea
General, con voz pero sin voto.

Las únicas asociaciones "popcapitalistas" en todo caso tendrän estatutos para jugar al mus,

La MN sicologica es simplemente un fantasma que encubre la inacciön, Una forma de wokismo, eh, 8)
Y esperar a que el Gobierno haga esto o lo otro es no haber entendido nada a como funciona la sociedad democratica.

Organicence o piensen como hacerlo,
Alegraos, la transición estructural, por divertida, es revolucionaria.

PPCC v/eshttp://ppcc-es.blogspot

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Re: Tema: PPCC-Pisitófilos Creditófagos-Otoño 2022
« Respuesta #2071 en: Noviembre 19, 2022, 15:02:45 pm »
Lo de Bernardos y las "noticias" de que el alquiler subirá aún más en 2023 ya son de chiste y de orquesta de Titanic.

Con los tipos altos ya se ha visto que el mercado de compra venta se ha frenado en seco. No se vende una escoba.

No hace mucho la consigna de los que habían comprado para alquilar era irse "por la inseguridad jurídica". Por la reversión parcial de la LAU 2013, y por la congelación de las subidas al 2%, vamos. Pero ahora resulta que no hay ventas. ¿Vuelven esas viviendas al mercado del alquiler? Se ve que es la idea.

Lo que diga la prensa casi que no importa ya. Estamos de nuevo en el no-mercado, y la resistencia será máxima hasta que se acabe el dinero y se necesite cash. Como en 2008, vamos. El resto son simples adornos y brindis al sol. Cuando en 2024 se forme nuevo gobierno, que se abrochen los machos. Si es que la resistencia no quiebra antes.

Bernardos seguirá tocando la trompeta hasta el penúltimo segundo del apocalipsis, es fiel a su relato como nadie; después del pinchazo de 2007, es sorprendente que no hayan encontrado a alguien tan fiel y con tanta falta de escrúpulos para impulsar de nuevo la fiebre de la pisitofilia. El hundimiento es inevitable.

Hasta ahora, siempre que se ha llegado al límite de una burbuja, los mensajes han sido los mismos. "Aterrizaje suave"; "subidas más lentas"; equilibrios oferta-demanda, bla bla bla, harán que no baje". También los indicadores hacen lo mismo, sobre todo las curvas de tipos que se invierten, básicamente, porque la liquidez "se va secando" y se necesita dinero a plazo más corto. En estos momentos, estamos viendo inversiones sin precedentes como la protagonizada por la aburrida y predecible Alemania. También se empiezan a ver quiebras de garitos como FTX de Samuel Banquero Frito -nombre-pseudonimo magistral- (¿Por cierto, cual es el mínimo de "aportación" al partido demócrata para no ser detenido por fraude? :roto2:). Pero, oigan, son casos aislados y no hay peligro de contagio. "Is contained" :tragatochos:

¿O es que esta vez es diferente (otra vez :troll: :roto2:)?

La sensación es de zozobra, miedo, pánico y esperanza por un cambio de gobierno que repita los mantras de la reburbuja. Muchos creen que lo peor que nos espera será un aumento drástico del desempleo; después de los continuos rescates y la política de ERTES, muchos incluso respiran aliviados al estar comprobando que "los clientes" no van a perder tanta capacidad de gasto como en 2010 y esta vez el reburbujeo vendrá mucho más rápido. Sigo desconfiado porque como ilusionistas llevan una década sosteniendo lo insostenible, pero de donde hay no se puede sacar y los cambios van a venir inevitablemente, por las buenas o por las malas.

Carencia legislativa. Es decir, ausencia de politica fiscal al servicio de la habitabilidad,

La ausencia legislativa denota simplemente la ausencia organizacione con propuestas de politica fiscal.

Y no, no hay ninguna organizaciön popcapitalista. Nunca la hubo. Sólo una Mayoria electoral y gobiernos oportunistas que razonaban a partir de las soluciones de organizaciones existentes (banca, socimis) en función de lo que pensaban queria la Mayoria Electoral.

Pero no existe ninguna organizaciön social que aporte ninguna soluciön fiscal; el resultado es la ausencia de parque social y un sistema fiscal construido para favorecer el rentismo, Eso es todo,

En esa situación, las medidas de consistorios (Albacete, Barna) son inoperantes mientras se siga careciendo de politica fiscal es decir de soluciones traidas a la mesa por organizaciones, En Barna, es posible que las organizaciones capaces de dar con esas soluciones fueron desvirtuadas por el independentismo. En el Gobierno, las organizaciones podemitas, por el wokismo:

Introducir una politica fiscal supone la existencia de una organización detrás, No de un partido, sino de organizacione sociales con soluciones para  traerlas a la mesa y negociarlas. Los gobiernos arbitran entre las diferentes soluciones,

(Las organizaciones se financian con cuotas de socios. Y el equipo portavoz se elige en Asamblea. No se puede criticar lo que hace una organizacion sin imputarlo a sus socios, Organicense.)

Ayer, en la tertulia de viernes noche, hablamos sobre este problema y surgió la necesidad de que se extendiera lo del sindicato de inquilinos que promociona un tal Palomera. Yo animé a movilizar ideas, ya que uno solo no puede conquistar ni la esquina de al lado. Quedó todo en el típico "que inventen otros", pero el hartazgo es manifiesto y algunos ya quieren repensar soluciones. En conversaciones parecidas me ví metido hace algo más de una década en los inicios de Democracia Real Ya; posiblemente las soluciones las impulsarán los Wokistas, que por entonces eran algo muy diferente. Con tanto desgaste, me da igual quien le ponga el cascabel al gato: lo único que quiero es que se la vivienda deje de carcomernos la cabeza como sociedad y dueño de todos los males.

Pues tanto mejor.

Si este efecto psicológico es prevalente, ya tenemos otro más a añadir al de los fallecimientos + herencias. Cuando empiece el dominó, la aceleración será aún mayor.

La única forma de que España tenga alguna posibilidad de sobrevivir como sociedad y economía es que el chiringuito se caiga. La vida de la mayoría está totalmente paralizada, y afecta a todo tipo de circunstancias.

Efectivamente, habrá dolor, lágrimas y ruina, pero son absolutamente necesarias.

El otro día, supe que un conocido, chavalete de 25 años, se dedicaba al alquiler turístico por semanas tras haberse hipotecado en un piso en una zona turística (entiendo que le avaló su familia). El convencimiento de que el negocio era eterno y sin riesgo era absoluto.

En el fondo, no deja de ser otro drama. Aunque esa actitud sea parte del gran problema, sin tanta propaganda y tantos ánimos asimilados por parte de la MN, ese chaval habría invertido su tiempo, su esfuerzo y sus ahorros en algo productivo.


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Re: Tema: PPCC-Pisitófilos Creditófagos-Otoño 2022
« Respuesta #2072 en: Noviembre 19, 2022, 18:58:49 pm »
https://twitter.com/KobeissiLetter/status/1594024754083942400

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@KobeissiLetter FTX This Week:

1. Bankruptcy advisors call FTX fraud worse than Enron

2. SBF’s lawyers drop him as a client

3. Bahamas govt behind $600m+ hack

4. Found that SBF stole $300m in fundraising

5. FTX balance sheet has $900m in assets, $9B in liabilities

This keeps getting worse.
“Everything can be taken from a man but one thing: the last of the human freedoms — to choose one’s attitude in any given set of circumstances, to choose one’s own way.”— Viktor E. Frankl
https://www.hks.harvard.edu/more/policycast/happiness-age-grievance-and-fear

Derby

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Re: Tema: PPCC-Pisitófilos Creditófagos-Otoño 2022
« Respuesta #2073 en: Noviembre 19, 2022, 19:23:47 pm »
https://twitter.com/javierburonc/status/1593598781370425346

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@javierburonc Contra el mito de un mercado de alquiler integrado solo por particulares con 1 o 2 unidades, datos: CONTANDO SOLO VIVIENDAS EN BCN, el 36% de las viviendas alquiladas en BCN ciudad están en manos de propietarios q alquilan 10 o más viviendas; el 51.4% de los que alquilan 3 o más.

https://www.ohb.cat/wp-content/uploads/2022/11/NdP_Lab_Propietat_Barcelona_2021.pdf
“Everything can be taken from a man but one thing: the last of the human freedoms — to choose one’s attitude in any given set of circumstances, to choose one’s own way.”— Viktor E. Frankl
https://www.hks.harvard.edu/more/policycast/happiness-age-grievance-and-fear

senslev

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Re: Tema: PPCC-Pisitófilos Creditófagos-Otoño 2022
« Respuesta #2074 en: Noviembre 19, 2022, 21:18:23 pm »
‘Tener’, de Rosebud para Divina Seguros

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mWxAdyil7Ok
Banalidad del mal es un concepto acuñado por la filósofa alemana H. Arendt para describir cómo un sistema de poder político puede trivializar el exterminio de seres humanos cuando se realiza como un procedimiento burocrático ejecutado por funcionarios incapaces de pensar en las consecuencias éticas.

Derby

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Re: Tema: PPCC-Pisitófilos Creditófagos-Otoño 2022
« Respuesta #2075 en: Noviembre 19, 2022, 21:38:43 pm »
https://swarajyamag.com/world/xi-jinpings-not-so-grand-plan-to-rescue-chinas-real-estate-sector

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Xi Jinping’s Not-So-Grand Plan To Rescue China’s Real Estate Sector

The real estate sector moves close to one-third of China’s economy…and is in deep trouble.

With another term secured under his belt, President Xi Jinping, earlier this week, announced a sixteen-point plan to rescue the real estate sector.

For the last few years now, the entire real estate in China has been close to collapse with soaring prices even with falling demand, defaulting real estate groups, starting with Evergrande, local governments losing out on land sales and revenues, and ghost cities.

Not anything Lehman Brothers, however, China’s real estate finds itself in decline after a decade of booming growth.

The sixteen-point agenda includes more property development loans for developers, easing the home-buying requirements for borrowers, ensuring fundraising and financing for construction companies, and allowing a moratorium on the loan payments for developers.

Further, the plan includes support for the issuing of bonds, special loans for pending projects with a priority on residential properties, negotiating with homebuyers if they default on their mortgage payments, and ensuring long-term funding for even the rental properties.

Together, close to $590 billion can be attributed to unfinished real estate projects in China. The concerns are not limited to the developers alone, for bankers and promoters behind these projects, many of them local, are also facing the possibility of a run on their deposits, triggering another crisis.

Given a lot of the buyers make 100 per cent payments before the houses are delivered, the consumption economy also suffers. What shocked the authorities in Beijing was the protest by several buyers against mortgage payments.

China’s real estate crisis emerged only in the last few years. Since 2008, it had been the recipient of free money from the state.

Three factors were critical in the decade-long boom. One, is the economic stimulus that almost all major economies ushered after the slowdown of 2008.

Two, the growing urbanisation and anticipation of housing demand in cities, and finally, the generous capital that was available to developers at throwaway interest rates, thanks to the backing of the state. Then came the problem of excesses.

Post-2015, the ‘Ghost City’ phenomenon started becoming common. Houses with no residents, commercial estates with no offices, and localities with no communities. The consequences of the ‘Ghost City’ phenomenon led to low returns for the developers and local governments while they were taking on more debt.

Eventually, to service the previous debt, these developers, and provincial and local administrations took more loans, thus getting trapped in a debt loop. Beijing now wants to ensure more free loans for real estate developers.

Another fallout of the real estate crisis was the ability of developers to raise money through dollar bonds. In March 2022, some of these bonds were paying a 32 per cent yield, higher than what was in 2008.

In the last few quarters, the quantum of dollar bonds issued has also come down significantly, compared to 2018 and 2019.

For Q1, 2022, the issuance was down by 97 per cent compared to Q1, 2021, thus triggering another crisis for the developers. In August, investors were estimating bond losses in excess of $130 billion.

As a result, Beijing had to bail out several local administrations too. Xi’s government had to deploy LGFVs or Local Government Financing Vehicles to buy out lands from provincial governments at inflated prices.

For H1 2022, the LGFV purchases were $57 billion, 70 per cent more than H1 2021. In July 2022, the year-on-year change in revenues from land sales for local authorities was down by over 30 per cent.

Beijing now wants to ease the regulatory burden on developers as well. In August 2021 introduced the ‘three red lines’ system under which the financial health of a real estate group was evaluated.

The parameters included the ratio of liabilities to assets, net debt to equity, and cash to short-term borrowings. Over a dozen big property developers were in violations of these regulations.

Most developers had a liability to assets ratio in excess of 70 per cent. The cash to short-term debt ratio was as low was 0.55 for some developers.

Beyond the 30 per cent contribution to the annual growth which includes several sectors, China’s real estate is also linked to its demographic fortunes.

Seen as the primary deterrent against having more children after education cost, apartment prices, in cities, were regulated by Beijing last year when they allowed families to have three children.

In some cases, the excessive supply of apartments was dealt by demolishing them altogether, and in some cases, an offer was made for one-plus-one.

While the markets have responded optimistically to the agenda, estimated to cost around $180-odd billion, the sentiment continues to remain divided, and for the right reasons.

Ease of credit to build or buy homes is no guarantee of demand, and beyond finishing incomplete projects, the Chinese economy no longer has the appetite for a state-backed building boom as was the case between 2008 and 2018. Further, will the investors on dollar bonds come back with the same vigour?

The real estate ‘ghosts’ will continue to haunt Xi, even with all his political leverage.
« última modificación: Noviembre 19, 2022, 21:45:53 pm por Derby »
“Everything can be taken from a man but one thing: the last of the human freedoms — to choose one’s attitude in any given set of circumstances, to choose one’s own way.”— Viktor E. Frankl
https://www.hks.harvard.edu/more/policycast/happiness-age-grievance-and-fear

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Re: Tema: PPCC-Pisitófilos Creditófagos-Otoño 2022
« Respuesta #2076 en: Noviembre 19, 2022, 21:56:18 pm »
Claro, sí...

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/britain-mulls-swiss-style-ties-with-brussels-nr0f7fw2k

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Britain mulls Swiss-style ties with Brussels

The government believes EU relations are thawing and could lead to ‘frictionless’ trade

Senior government figures are planning to put Britain on the path towards a Swiss-style relationship with the European Union.

The move, intended to forge closer economic ties, is likely to infuriate hardline Conservative Brexiteers.

Jeremy Hunt, the chancellor, last week signalled that Rishi Sunak’s administration intends to break from the approach adopted by Boris Johnson and remove the vast majority of trade barriers with the bloc.

In private, senior government sources have suggested that pursuing frictionless trade requires moving towards a Swiss-style relationship over the next decade. However, they insist this would not extend to a return to freedom of movement. (...)
“Everything can be taken from a man but one thing: the last of the human freedoms — to choose one’s attitude in any given set of circumstances, to choose one’s own way.”— Viktor E. Frankl
https://www.hks.harvard.edu/more/policycast/happiness-age-grievance-and-fear

Derby

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Re: Tema: PPCC-Pisitófilos Creditófagos-Otoño 2022
« Respuesta #2077 en: Noviembre 19, 2022, 22:31:37 pm »
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4559217-housing-collapse-continues

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Housing Collapse Continues

*Sales of existing homes sank another 5.9% in October to a 4.43 million seasonally adjusted annual rate.

*Condo and co-op sales fell 2% for the month, leaving sales at a 480,000 annual rate for the month versus 490,000 in September.

*Housing is likely to continue to be under intense pressure as near-record-high prices and surging mortgage rates reduce affordability and push more and more buyers out of the market.




Sales of existing homes sank another 5.9 percent in October to a 4.43 million seasonally adjusted annual rate. That is the ninth consecutive monthly decline leaving the selling pace at the lowest level since May 2020, the low of the lockdown recession. Excluding the lockdown recession, sales have been at their lowest since December 2011. Sales were down 28.4 percent from a year ago and 31.7 percent from the January peak.

Sales in the market for existing single-family homes, which account for about 90 percent of total existing-home sales, dropped 6.4 percent in October, coming in at a 3.95 million seasonally adjusted annual rate (see first chart). Sales are down 28.2 percent from a year ago and 31.3 percent from the January peak. Single-family sales also fell for the ninth consecutive month and were at their slowest pace since the May 2020 lockdown recession.

The single-family segment saw sales decline in all four regions. Sales fell by 4.7 percent in the Midwest, 5.4 percent in the South, the largest region by volume, 7.8 percent in the Northeast, the smallest region by volume, and 10.3 percent in the West. Sales were down double digits in all four regions from a year ago (-38.1 percent in the West, -26.4 percent in the South, -25.5 percent in the Midwest, and -23.0 percent in the Northeast).

Condo and co-op sales fell 2.0 percent for the month, leaving sales at a 480,000 annual rate for the month versus 490,000 in September (see first chart). Measured from a year ago, condo and co-op sales were off 30.4 percent, and were at their slowest pace since June 2020.

Condo and co-op sales were down in one of the four regions in October, falling 14.3 percent in the Midwest but were unchanged in the Northeast, the West, and the South. From a year ago, sales were also down in all four regions (-33.3 percent in the South, -33.3 percent in the West, -23.1 percent in the Northeast, and -25.0 percent in the Midwest).



Total inventory of existing homes for sale fell in October, decreasing by 0.8 percent to 1.20 million, leaving the months’ supply (inventory times 12 divided by the annual selling rate) at 3.3, the highest since June 2020, but still low by historical comparison.

For the single-family segment, inventory was down 1.8 percent for the month at 1.08 million and is 0.9 percent above the October 2021 level (see second chart). The months’ supply was 3.3, up from 3.1 in the prior month and the highest since June 2020 (see second chart). The months’ supply for new single-family homes for sale has surged to 9.2 over the past year (see second chart).

The condo and co-op inventory increased 3.8 percent to 138,000, leaving the months’ supply at 3.5. Condo and co-op months’ supply is 25.0 percent above October 2021.



The median sale price in October of an existing home was $379,100, 6.6 percent above the year-ago price. For single-family existing home sales in October, the price was $384,900, a 6.2 percent rise over the past year (see third chart). The median price for a condo/co-op was $331,000, 10.1 percent above October 2021.

Mortgage rates have been surging again recently, bouncing around the 6.5 percent to 7.0 percent range in mid-November, well above the lows of around 2.65 percent in January 2021 (see third chart).



The combination of near-record-high home prices and sharply higher mortgage rates has sent housing affordability plunging. The Housing Affordability Index from the National Association of Realtors measures whether or not a typical family could qualify for a mortgage loan on a typical home. A typical home is defined as the national median-priced, existing single-family home as calculated by NAR. The typical family is defined as one earning the median family income as reported by the U.S. Bureau of the Census. A value of 100 means that a family with the median income has exactly enough income to qualify for a mortgage on a median-priced home. An index above 100 signifies that a family earning the median income has more than enough income to qualify for a mortgage loan on a median-priced home, assuming a 20% down payment. As of September, the index stood at 96.6, below the qualifying threshold (see fourth chart).

Housing is likely to continue to be under intense pressure as near-record-high prices and surging mortgage rates reduce affordability and push more and more buyers out of the market.
“Everything can be taken from a man but one thing: the last of the human freedoms — to choose one’s attitude in any given set of circumstances, to choose one’s own way.”— Viktor E. Frankl
https://www.hks.harvard.edu/more/policycast/happiness-age-grievance-and-fear


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Re: Tema: PPCC-Pisitófilos Creditófagos-Otoño 2022
« Respuesta #2080 en: Noviembre 19, 2022, 23:21:44 pm »
Citar
BofA Flow Show: Stagflation, It's So Hot Right Now

November 16, 2022 by Michael Hartnett, Chief Investment Strategist, BofA Securities Research


















Saludos.

P.D. El informe completo aquí.

sudden and sharp

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Re: Tema: PPCC-Pisitófilos Creditófagos-Otoño 2022
« Respuesta #2081 en: Noviembre 20, 2022, 00:19:50 am »
Claro, sí...

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/britain-mulls-swiss-style-ties-with-brussels-nr0f7fw2k

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Britain mulls Swiss-style ties with Brussels

The government believes EU relations are thawing and could lead to ‘frictionless’ trade

Senior government figures are planning to put Britain on the path towards a Swiss-style relationship with the European Union.

The move, intended to forge closer economic ties, is likely to infuriate hardline Conservative Brexiteers.

Jeremy Hunt, the chancellor, last week signalled that Rishi Sunak’s administration intends to break from the approach adopted by Boris Johnson and remove the vast majority of trade barriers with the bloc.

In private, senior government sources have suggested that pursuing frictionless trade requires moving towards a Swiss-style relationship over the next decade. However, they insist this would not extend to a return to freedom of movement. (...)

Que empiece por Francia...   ::)

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Re: Tema: PPCC-Pisitófilos Creditófagos-Otoño 2022
« Respuesta #2082 en: Noviembre 20, 2022, 19:44:21 pm »
La historia de FTX demuestra que, como dice en TW Michael Pettis: el autoengaño conduce, lleva a actuar, tanto a los estafadores como a los estafados. Cipolla estaría maravillado ante un ejemplo tan magnífico de estupidez humana.

Aun así, no puede convertirse a la víctima en responsable del crimen.

https://twitter.com/michaelxpettis/status/1594224929876099072

https://www.wsj.com/articles/sam-bankman-fried-ftx-alameda-bankruptcy-collapse-11668824201

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They Lived Together, Worked Together and Lost Billions Together: Inside Sam Bankman-Fried’s Doomed FTX Empire

The emerging picture of what went wrong suggests the crypto empire was a mess almost from the start, with few boundaries, financial or personal

NASSAU, Bahamas— Sam Bankman -Fried’s $32 billion crypto-trading empire collapsed in an incandescent bankruptcy last week, prompting irate customers, crypto acolytes and Silicon Valley bigwigs to ask how something that seemed so promising could have imploded so fast.

The emerging picture suggests FTX wasn’t simply felled by a rival, or undone by a bad trade or the relentless fall this year in the value of cryptocurrencies. Instead, it had long been a chaotic mess. From its earliest days, the firm was an unruly agglomeration of corporate entities, customer assets and Mr. Bankman-Fried himself, according to court papers, company balance sheets shown to bankers and interviews with employees and investors. No one could say exactly what belonged to whom. Prosecutors are now investigating its collapse.

Mr. Bankman-Fried’s companies had neither accounting nor functioning human-resources departments, according to a filing in federal court by the executive brought in to shepherd FTX through bankruptcy. Corporate money was used to buy real estate, but records weren’t kept. There wasn’t even a roster of employees, to say nothing of the terms of their employment. Bankruptcy filings say one entity’s outstanding loans include at least $1 billion to Mr. Bankman-Fried personally and $543 million to a top lieutenant.

The lives of the people who ran FTX and its related companies were similarly blurred. Ten of them lived and worked together in a $30 million penthouse at an upscale resort in the Bahamas. The hours were punishing, and the lines between work and play were hard to discern. Romantic relationships among Mr. Bankman-Fried’s upper echelon were common, as was use of stimulants, according to former employees.

Mr. Bankman-Fried, 30 years old, kept a hectic schedule, toggling between six screens and getting by on a few hours of sleep a day. He was at times romantically involved with Caroline Ellison, the 28-year-old CEO of his trading firm, Alameda Research, according to former employees.

“Nothing like regular amphetamine use to make you appreciate how dumb a lot of normal, non-medicated human experience is,” Ms. Ellison once tweeted. A lawyer for Ms. Ellison declined to comment.

To the outside world, Mr. Bankman-Fried was the mayor of cryptoland, the man charged with convincing lawmakers, investors and enthusiasts that he’d built a new kind of finance. He urged Congress and regulators to approve his model for crypto trading. On his cryptocurrency trading exchange, FTX, positions and risk were cross-checked by computers, and algorithms would react within milliseconds to protect bad trades from spilling over to hurt other customers, he said. On Twitter, he admonished competitors for practices he called unsafe.

But behind the scenes, Mr. Bankman-Fried was taking huge risks himself. Though he said publicly that Alameda was just a regular user on the exchange, the firm ran up a bill of $8 billion buying stakes in startups, trading on credit that no other user could get. Much of that money, much of which belonged to FTX’s customers, is likely gone.

FTX’s swift collapse—it went from paragon to bankrupt in just over a week—has renewed questions about crypto’s viability, its unregulated status and how so many well-heeled investors could have been misled for so long. Investors have poured hundreds of billions of dollars into digital currencies in recent years. Staid financial institutions were finally getting in on the action, too.

The executive tapped to guide Mr. Bankman-Fried’s companies through bankruptcy said the state of FTX’s affairs was the biggest mess he had seen in a decades long career that includes unwinding the accounting scandal that was Enron Corp. In a court filing he said many of the firm’s records of its digital assets seemed to be missing or incomplete; in many cases, he was unable to locate relevant bank accounts.

In last week’s bankruptcy papers, a Kenya-based money-transfer company was listed as an FTX entity. That surprised its CEO, Elizabeth Rossiello.

In a 2021 financial report, FTX said it had agreed to buy her company for about $220 million. FTX never did. There was no agreement, at any price, said Ms. Rossiello. “We were going to be their exclusive partner in Africa,” she said, nothing more.

“From compromised systems integrity and faulty regulatory oversight abroad, to the concentration of control in the hands of a very small group of inexperienced, unsophisticated and potentially compromised individuals, this situation is unprecedented,” John J. Ray III said in court papers.

A full accounting of what went wrong at FTX is likely months away, but a reconstruction of what the firm did and how its executives operated makes plain its public image—a team of brilliant quants bringing a sophisticated, digital approach to risk—was a mirage.

Mr. Bankman-Fried has blamed the misuse of customer funds on sloppy record-keeping and a flood of unexpected customer withdrawals.

“I’m sorry. That’s the biggest thing,” he tweeted Nov. 10. “I f—ed up, and should have done better.”

Golden boy

Mr. Bankman-Fried’s combination of bravado and humility captivated crypto bros and the Davos set. Investors poured billions into the firm run by the mop-headed “League of Legends” fan who wore ratty T-shirts and slept on a beanbag chair. He was raised on the Stanford University campus by two well-known professors, fluent in the language of the highly educated.

FTX, unlike most young startups, seemed to be turning a tidy profit taking a cut of billions of dollars in daily crypto trades. Mr. Bankman-Fried wasn’t like the other crypto founders. He said he was amassing a fortune for the sole purpose of giving it away, part of a movement known as effective altruism.  :facepalm: He lobbied lawmakers to tame the wily crypto market.

Mr. Bankman-Fried’s businesses appeared to be pillars of stability. FTX was seemingly flush with cash after having raised about $2 billion from investors such as Sequoia Capital and Ontario Teachers’ Pension Plan.

Yet late last year, the company started calling Bahamian banks with an unusual offer: Deposit your cash in FTX’s crypto-lending platform in exchange for interest of as much as 12%, according to bankers.

Then, in May, the crypto market crashed, taking down several crypto firms. Mr. Bankman-Fried played the role of white knight.

FTX and Alameda, the trading firm, extended hundreds of millions of dollars in credit to prop up one struggling lender, BlockFi, and made an unsuccessful bid to keep lender Voyager Digital out of bankruptcy.

Mr. Bankman-Fried’s heroics drew comparisons to John Pierpont Morgan’s private bailouts that helped end the Panic of 1907.

“There really was significant and irresponsible risk that was taken on by some of the smaller names that are running into problems,” he told The Wall Street Journal in July.

No boundaries

Behind the scenes, Alameda the trading firm and FTX the exchange were far more entangled than outsiders realized.

One potential investor was concerned about the seeming lack of barriers between the two firms. Alex Pack first met Mr. Bankman-Fried in December 2018 in the Cafe Gray Deluxe on the 49th floor of Hong Kong’s Upper House hotel.

Then a managing partner with Dragonfly Capital, a crypto-focused venture firm, Mr. Pack was considering an investment in Alameda. He was captivated by the disheveled founder, who shuffled in 20 minutes late for the meeting, dressed in shorts and a T-shirt.

A monthslong due-diligence process turned up an April 2018 trading error that cost Alameda more than $10 million. Dragonfly only learned about the loss after chatting with Alameda’s traders; the financials the firm supplied didn’t go back far enough to reveal it, Mr. Pack said. Mr. Bankman-Fried seemed nonchalant when asked about the loss, Mr. Pack said. “We were like, this is some pretty reckless risk-taking,” said Mr. Pack, now a managing partner with Hack VC.

The talks fell apart when Mr. Bankman-Fried revealed that Alameda was working on the crypto exchange that would become FTX—but only wanted Dragonfly’s money for Alameda, not for the new project. “Alameda and FTX were tied at the hip,” Mr. Pack said. “Proposing to use our money, if we were to invest, to finance his new business to the detriment of the business we were investing in—that left a pretty sour taste in our mouths,” he said.

Mr. Bankman-Fried often said Alameda played by the same rules as any other trader on FTX. “There are no parties that have privileged access,” he told the Journal in July.

He had long extolled the virtues of FTX’s “risk engine,” a system that monitored traders’ bets across a dizzying array of cryptocurrencies. If someone’s bet was going bad, the system would demand more collateral. If the trader didn’t top up their account in time, FTX could liquidate the trader’s assets.

Yet Alameda, according to bankruptcy-court documents, had a “secret exemption” that allowed it to avoid liquidations in certain circumstances.
The documents didn’t spell out details of the exemption.

Alameda’s special status allowed it to effectively rack up an $8 billion bill with FTX. Much of that money was spent buying stakes in startups and obscure digital currencies that couldn’t easily be sold to raise cash, according to a financial document prepared by FTX dated Nov. 7 that was viewed by the Journal.

Alameda spent $1.1 billion buying stakes in Genesis Digital Assets between August 2021 and April 2022, the document shows. Bitcoin mining companies such as Genesis Digital have plunged in value in recent months.

Alameda also invested in Anthropic, an artificial-intelligence startup founded last year by devotees of the effective-altruism movement. Anthropic said in a press release that Mr. Bankman-Fried and some senior colleagues at FTX had led a $580 million investment round in the company. Documents say the investment was actually made with company money.

In addition, Alameda invested in venture-capital funds that backed FTX, including $200 million in two funds run by Sequoia Capital and $20 million in a Paradigm-run fund, according to the document.

Before they collapsed, Alameda and FTX valued their venture and crypto investments at more than $5 billion, all told, the document said.

What’s an FTT Worth?

The fates of Mr. Bankman-Fried’s trading firm and exchange were intertwined in another big way. Alameda was highly dependent on its holdings of FTT, a cryptocurrency that FTX launched in 2019, according to the financial document viewed by the Journal.

Humans have ascribed value to objects for eons. A dollar bill is just a piece of paper, after all. But its value comes from traditions and agreements, laws and practices formed over hundreds of years. Cryptocurrencies compress that into the stroke of a key: Make a cryptographic token with some code, give it a name, and get someone to believe it’s worth $10. If you hold a hundred thousand of these tokens, you now have an asset worth a million dollars—in theory.

Crypto investors saw the FTT token as similar to shares of FTX, and its value soared as FTX grew into one of the world’s biggest digital-currency exchanges.

Alameda holds the lion’s share of FTT in existence. Before it collapsed, Alameda had marked the value of its FTT at $5.5 billion, according to the document.

The tokens provided Alameda with a sort of superpower: The firm could post its stash of FTT as collateral and borrow other coins to fund its trading strategies.

The strategy had one big flaw: If the price of FTT crashed, Alameda’s money spigot would dry up.

The document also listed holdings of $5 billion of serum and $1.7 billion of solana, tokens that were sometimes called “Sam coins” because of Mr. Bankman-Fried’s role in promoting them. Alameda created serum in 2020 while solana was launched by a startup that was backed by Alameda. FTX listed the tokens on its exchange, giving them credibility among crypto investors and helping to boost their price, while Alameda counted their value toward the assets on its balance sheet.

Sam Coins

The three biggest cryptocurrency holdings on Alameda Research’s balance sheet, according to a Nov. 7 document viewed by the Journal, have lost most of their dollar value this year.
Change in dollar value of cryptocurrencies from end of 2021




One of Mr. Bankman-Fried’s most vaunted deals helped keep his own ship from sinking. Going into the summer, BlockFi held hundreds of millions of dollars worth of FTT as collateral for loans, according to people familiar with the matter. If the lender failed, the liquidation of those tokens would have crashed FTT. FTX extended a $400 million revolving credit facility to BlockFi that kept the lender afloat.

“BlockFi was not aware of or involved with any improper business conduct done by FTX or its counterparties,” a spokeswoman said.

On June 6, as a wave of layoffs rippled through the crypto industry, Mr. Bankman-Fried tweeted that FTX would “keep growing as others cut jobs.”

Later that month, FTX laid off around 20 people, mostly in the Bahamas, people familiar with the matter said, without public notice. FTX required some to sign nondisclosure agreements, they said.

Game Lovers

Mr. Bankman-Fried got his start at Jane Street, a high-tech trading firm, after leaving the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. For fun, he and some colleagues played games that tested their intellects, such as Bughouse chess, a fast version of the game played by four players on two boards.

He founded Alameda in 2017 and FTX two years later. The exchange specialized in exotic investments like perpetual futures, leveraged tokens and options. Such markets, which U.S. regulators keep off-limits to Americans, allow traders to make huge, debt-fueled bets.

After a stint in Hong Kong, Mr. Bankman-Fried and FTX made their home in the Bahamas, moving in 2021 to take advantage of the island country’s crypto-friendly regulatory regime.

On the archipelago’s New Providence island, an 80-square-mile oasis that feels to its financial elite like a small club, FTX landed with a splash, according to people on the island. The company rapidly acquired high-end real estate.

Locals said they were excited to be part of what felt like a new wave of industry. The Bahamian prime minister, Philip Davis, hoped FTX would help center his country as a nexus of the crypto world, he said in several public speeches. When given the chance to buy FTX equity earlier this year, one Bahamian FTX worker said employees spent thousands of dollars each on shares.

FTX laid out tens of millions of dollars on residences to turn part of the waterfront resort into an extension of FTX, according to people familiar with the matter. The resort kept a restaurant open 24 hours a day with FTX employees in mind, the people said.

Fundraising prowess

In 2021, Silicon Valley was in a full crypto craze. Coinbase Global Inc.’s direct listing gave the company a blockbuster $65 billion market capitalization after its first day of trading. Venture capitalists poured more than $9 billion into crypto and blockchain startups in the first half of 2021, according to PitchBook, nearly triple what they invested in all of 2020.

FTX never really had the red-ink phase common to startups. The exchange generated an operating profit of $14.4 million on revenue of $89.9 million in 2020, its first full year in business, according to financial statements reviewed by the Journal. Mr. Ray, the executive charged with seeing FTX through its bankruptcy, in court papers said he has doubts about the company’s past financial statements.

Mr. Bankman-Fried was able to dictate the terms of any deal, people familiar with the matter said. One investment firm that Mr. Bankman-Fried pitched was told it had less than a week to decide whether the firm was in, one of the people said. When the firm asked to see more information about FTX’s balance sheet, the startup declined to provide it, that person said.

Potential investors said Mr. Bankman-Fried appeared uninterested compared to the typical founder scrounging for money. He frequently deferred to another executive, Ramnik Arora, and moved on to other tasks.

On a call pitching Sequoia Capital, the firm that has backed some of the biggest companies in Silicon Valley, Mr. Bankman-Fried was simultaneously playing the video game “League of Legends,” according to an article Sequoia published on its website about FTX in September that it has since removed.

In all, dozens of investors plowed around $2 billion into his firm in just seven months, flocking as a herd to bet on one of the world’s hottest startups.

Big spending

Mr. Bankman-Fried was giving multimillion-dollar donations to Democratic politicians and to fund a variety of causes, including combating climate change and curing tropical diseases. He plunged deeper into the effective-altruism movement.

FTX spent big to attract new customers. The company last year agreed to pay $135 million over 19 years to emblazon the basketball arena where the Miami Heat play with its logo.

The deal seemed to vault FTX into an upper echelon of corporate America. Additional sponsorships followed, with a Formula One racing team, a prestigious chess tournament, esports organizations and other NBA teams.

Its advertisements featured sports stars including Tom Brady and Stephen Curry. The message in most was that it wasn’t important to understand crypto to join the frenzy, just the FTX app.

In one commercial, retired Boston Red Sox slugger David Ortiz is watching a game on television when he receives a phone call.

“You’re getting into crypto? With FTX? Steph and Tom are in?” Mr. Ortiz says. “Oh I’m in, bro.”

Cracks emerge

This year’s crypto meltdown put a chill on Silicon Valley. But Mr. Bankman-Fried needed more money. He wanted another $1 billion to buy beaten-down crypto startups and consolidate his control over the industry.

He painted a grandiose vision to potential investors, floating the idea of acquiring Robinhood Markets Inc., according to two investors who spoke to Mr. Bankman-Fried.

But he struck out in Silicon Valley. Mr. Bankman-Fried turned to Middle East sovereign-wealth funds rich with oil money. At the Saudi Future Investment Initiative last month, he met with officials from the Public Investment Fund and pitched them on the company. From there he flew to Abu Dhabi, looking for an investment from the emirate’s wealth funds.

He came home empty-handed.

The first cracks appeared in Mr. Bankman-Fried’s empire on Nov. 2, when crypto website CoinDesk published an article with details from a leaked copy of Alameda’s financials. It revealed that the trading firm’s balance sheet was puffed up with billions of dollars worth of FTT and various “Sam coins.”

Alameda’s Ms. Ellison tweeted that the leaked balance sheet reflected only “a subset of our corporate entities,” but the damage had been done.

The CoinDesk report drew the attention of Changpeng Zhao, the billionaire head of Binance, the world’s largest crypto exchange. Binance was a significant holder of FTT, with more than $500 million of the token.

On Nov. 6, Mr. Zhao tweeted that Binance would sell its FTT holdings, a move that threatened to crash the price. Although many observers chalked up the move to his long-simmering rivalry with Mr. Bankman-Fried, Mr. Zhao said he was protecting Binance from the risks of holding an illiquid token.

Ms. Ellison tweeted that her firm would “happily” buy the entire pile of FTT tokens at $22 per coin. Binance contacted her about the offer but never heard back, a person familiar with the matter said.

In a few tweets Mr. Zhao had ignited a run on FTX. On Sunday, Nov. 6, the crypto exchange was slammed with some $5 billion worth of withdrawals.

If FTX had managed customer funds as traditional brokerages do, it would have kept them separate from other parts of its businesses.

But FTX had loaned billions of dollars worth of customer funds to Alameda to cover its liabilities, people familiar with the matter said.

Mr. Bankman-Fried has disputed reports that FTX intentionally loaned customer funds to Alameda. In a text exchange published by Vox on Wednesday, he blamed “messy accounting,” adding: “I didn’t realize [the] full size of it until a few weeks ago.”

The hidden loans turned the flood of withdrawals into a deathblow. Mr. Bankman-Fried wrote in a tweet on Nov. 7, which has since been deleted, that FTX is fine. Assets are fine.” [/i]Behind the scenes he was scrambling to find a deep-pocketed investor to plug the hole. He approached rival crypto exchanges Coinbase and Kraken, according to people familiar with the talks, but those discussions went nowhere.

He was forced to turn to his nemesis: Binance.

The evening of Nov. 7, Mr. Zhao was in his office in Dubai editing notes for his upcoming speech at a conference of global leaders in Bali when he received a message from Mr. Bankman-Fried over Signal, an encrypted messaging app, a person familiar with the matter said. The FTX CEO congratulated his rival and described Binance as the perfect buyer for FTX, the person said.

On the morning of Nov. 8, Mr. Bankman-Fried sent a message to his team. He apologized for the chaos and thanked them for their efforts.

“It was clear the game was over,” says Nathaniel Whittemore, who was a senior marketing specialist at FTX.

That morning, Binance announced a non-binding deal to acquire FTX. The news shocked investors who had believed in Mr. Bankman-Fried’s vision and stunned his employees, the vast majority of whom had no idea of FTX’s problems.

As Binance executives pored over FTX’s books, they were confronted with a confusing mess, a person familiar with the matter said. Moreover, the hole that needed to be plugged was growing: FTX first put it at $2 billion, then $5 billion, then finally more than $8 billion, the person said.

Many of FTX’s lawyers quit while the talks were under way, part of a broader exodus of employees from the company, according to people familiar with the matter.

On Nov. 9, Mr. Bankman-Fried messaged Binance to ask for an update: “Hey all, we are still extremely excited to work on this with you guys. We are obviously seeing a lot of public pieces coming out claiming leaks but obviously we don’t know if that is real. We would love to get clarity from you guys about this.”

Three minutes later, Mr Zhao wrote back to the FTX chief. “Sam, I’m sorry,” he said, “we won’t be able to continue this deal. Way too many issues. CZ.”

Fallout

Mr. Bankman-Fried hustled to raise money from other investors, who pressed him on what happened to the customer funds. In one call on Nov. 9, he told prospective investors that FTX had taken in $16 billion of customer assets denominated in various cryptocurrencies and loaned more than half of it to Alameda.

Mr. Bankman-Fried searched for words. “There was a… a… a… let’s call it ballpark $8-ish-billion of um um um margin position size and it was quickly going to get to the point where we are not gonna have enough liquid assets to meet withdrawals,” he told the prospective investors, according to a recording of the call heard by the Journal.

In a Nov. 9 video meeting with Alameda employees, Ms. Ellison, the CEO, apologized and said that she had disappointed the staff, according to a person familiar with the matter.

Ms. Ellison said she, Mr. Bankman-Fried and two other FTX executives knew about the decision to send customer funds to Alameda, people familiar with the matter said.

Stunned by the revelations, many Alameda employees quit the next day, according to people familiar with the matter.

With her large-framed glasses, Ms. Ellison was known to be sociable with those who shared similar interests, one former colleague said. But she tended to turn quiet during high-pressure trading situations, the person said, and could get bulldozed by louder and more outwardly confident peers, especially Mr. Bankman-Fried.

On Nov. 10, the Journal reported that FTX had used customer funds to prop up Alameda. The crypto community was turning sharply against the FTX chief, who was being called “Scam Bankrun-Fraud” on social media.

“I’m really trying to control my rage,” Kraken CEO Jesse Powell tweeted. “This isn’t about aiming high and missing. This is about recklessness, greed, self-interest, hubris, sociopathic behavior that causes a person to risk all the hard-won progress this industry has earned over a decade, for their own personal gain.”

The next day, FTX filed for bankruptcy.

Its collapse has shaken the crypto world. BlockFi halted withdrawals on Nov. 10 and is preparing to file for bankruptcy. Crypto lender Genesis, which paused withdrawals on Nov. 16, said in a tweet it has hired advisers and is exploring all options.

FTX hired a Bahamian security firm to guard FTX headquarters shortly before the collapse. After the news, the majority of non-local FTX employees left the island. The security guards said they found themselves protecting nearly vacant buildings.

Mr. Bankman-Fried and a skeleton crew of remaining employees spent the past weekend trying to raise funds to plug FTX’s $8 billion hole and repay customers.

Before the company collapsed, FTX staffers frequented Island Brothers, an upscale French bistro a stone’s throw from the company’s headquarters, restaurant employees said. The owner got to know Mr. Bankman-Fried’s father, Stanford tax-law scholar Joseph Bankman, during his visits to Nassau to spend time with his son.

Last week, FTX’s downfall brought Mr. Bankman to Island Brothers in a somber mood. After a few pleasantries, the restaurant owner said, Mr. Bankman broke down in tears.

“Everything can be taken from a man but one thing: the last of the human freedoms — to choose one’s attitude in any given set of circumstances, to choose one’s own way.”— Viktor E. Frankl
https://www.hks.harvard.edu/more/policycast/happiness-age-grievance-and-fear

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Re: Tema: PPCC-Pisitófilos Creditófagos-Otoño 2022
« Respuesta #2084 en: Noviembre 20, 2022, 22:48:11 pm »

Citar
¡Hola qué tal! ¡Muy buenos días desde Madrid! Aquí me tienen en el parque en una mañana clara pero con mucho frío.

Hoy es sábado toca meditar.

La pregunta que nos vamos a hacer es: ¿Es viable económicamente la Unión Europea? ¿el Euro puede continuar? ¿o está la Unión Europea rota y no hay esperanzas de solución?

Es indudable que todos sabemos que el motor de la Unión Europea es Alemania, pero ahora mismo nos encontramos que ese motor ha dejado de funcionar –o por lo menos no funciona con la misma intensidad de antes–, pero es que además nos encontramos que la economía de la Unión Europea –y la economía global– se enfrenta a una recesión para el año 2023 –concretamente estamos esperando la para el segundo semestre del año 2023– tal y como pueden ver ustedes en este gráfico ya la curva de tipos de interés del bono alemán ven ustedes ahí que está invertida.


El principal problema al que se enfrenta la Unión Europea –tal y como pueden ver esto es en este gráfico– es el elevado endeudamiento –y fundamentalmente de los países del sur, ven ustedes ahí que Italia tiene un ratio de endeudamiento en el segundo trimestre del 150% de España del 116 incluso Francia está en el 113%– frente a estos países –podemos decir derrochadores– del sur, tenemos los países austeros del norte en lo que ven ustedes que tienen niveles de dudamiento bastante bajos, con lo cual se ve rápidamente que hay una dos europas dentro de la Unión Europea.


Además del problema del elevado ratio endeudamiento, nos encontramos que los países del sur –por ejemplo en España– nos están encontrando que el déficit estructural –ese déficit permanente que no depende del ciclo económico, sino que es un déficit simplemente por empezar el ejercicio fiscal– nos encontramos que en España, tal y como pueden ver ustedes ahí, se está situando en el 5%.


Pero ahora bien, lo peor no es esto, miren ustedes en esta noticia en la que ven como la Unión Europea estima que el déficit público español no bajará del 4% los próximos años.


Si ahora nos fijamos en otro país derrochador, como es Italia, observamos que su déficit puede estar –y lo están cifrando– en torno al 3,5 para el año 2025.


Estos déficit estructurales son muy difíciles de corregir y exigen necesariamente una acción. Luego, si Europa quiere seguir unida, lo primero que tiene que resolver es el problema de endeudamiento. Y miren, yo creo que no hay otra solución: condonar parte de la deuda a España e Italia a Portugal y a Grecia. Pero es que luego segundo lugar, ¿cómo vamos a corregir el déficit estructural?

Por lo tanto yo creo que no hay otra solución, lo podemos hacer enmascarar como lo queramos enmascarar, pero solamente hay una solución: que los países del norte estén dispuestos a hacer una transferencia anual a fondo perdido a España Italia Portugal y Grecia.

Si no están dispuestos a hacerlo Europa se romperá, ¿de acuerdo?

En este sentido quiero que se fijen ustedes en el gráfico de la cotización del euro/dólar. Este es un gráfico de largo recorrido tal y como pueden ver ustedes se encuentra una tendencia bajista –ahora mismo lo que estamos asistiendo es a un rebote, ahora bien Vamos a ver si es capaz de superar esa resistencia que tiene en torno a la zona 105-107 pero si no fuera capaz el camino al hacer 80 a la zona 0,80 estaría abierto–.


Y finalmente quiero que ustedes se fijen en un gráfico que para mí es muy significativo y nos explica perfectamente lo que está pasando en Europa, me refiero concretamente a Target 2. Antes de enseñarles y mostrarles las tablas a mí me gustaría decirles que si quieren informarse, pueden obtenerlo en el Banco Central europeo. Ahí les pongo la diapositiva para que ustedes lo vean.


Vamos a las cifras. Tal y como pueden ver ustedes en este gráfico, observarán que de España han salido 0,488 billones de euros, y de Italia ha salido una cifra bestial 0,714 billones de euros.

Esta cifras figuran en el pasivo del balance del banco de España y del banco de Italia respectivamente. ¿Y a dónde ir ha ido este dinero? Se observa claramente, ese dinero ha ido a Alemania. Ven ustedes que Alemania ha entrado 1,2666 billones de euros.

¿Y de dónde ha venido? Bueno ha venido de España a Italia.

Ustedes saben que en principio mientras el eurosistema se mantenga unido, da igual un euro emitido por el Banco Central alemán que un euro emitido por el Banco Central de Italia o un euro emitido por el Banco Central de España.


Ahora bien, si se rompiera el eurosistema, ¿que pasaría? Pues hombre, si se rompiera el eurosistema nos encontraríamos que el Banco de España tendría que pagar 0,488 billones al Banco Central alemán, Italia tendría que pagar 0,7 billones aproximadamente.


Ven ustedes que en valor absoluto esta cifra son enormes, pero vamos a ponerlas en términos relativos. Si ustedes las ponen en términos relativos, tal y como pueden ver en la pantalla, nos encontramos que esta deuda que el Banco de España tiene frente al Banco alemán, pero que no resulta exigible mientras el eurosistema esté vivo es el 37% del PIB y en Italia una cifra similar del 38% del PIB.

Por lo tanto a Europa no le queda ninguna otra opción, tinenen que ir adelante, dar un paso más, y todo pasa por condonar deuda pública a España condonar deuda pública Italia y, además, hacerles una transferencia para que los gobiernos sigan gastando.

¿Ustedes creen que los países frugales del norte van a entrar en este juego o romperán el euro sistema?

Esa es la pregunta, meditenlo.

Adiós, hasta luego, que pasen buen día.
Saludos.

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