Re:PPCC: Pisitófilos Creditófagos. Invierno 2025

[Derby]

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/national-security/trump-considering-major-nato-policy-shift-rcna195089

Trump considering major NATO policy shift

The president has discussed possibly favoring members of the alliance that spend a set percentage of their GDP on defense, sources told NBC News.


Member nation flags fly outside the North Atlantic Treaty Organization headquarters in Brussels. John Thys / AFP via Getty Images

WASHINGTON — President Donald Trump is considering a major change to the U.S.’ participation in the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, according to three current and former senior U.S. officials and one congressional official.

Trump has discussed with aides the possibility of calibrating America’s NATO engagement in a way that favors members of the alliance that spend a set percentage of their gross domestic product on defense, the officials said.

As part of the potential policy shift, the U.S. might not defend a fellow NATO member that is attacked if the country doesn’t meet the defense spending threshold, the officials said. If Trump does make that change, it would mark a significant shift from a core tenet of the alliance known as Article 5, which says that an attack on any NATO country is an attack on all of them.

The president is similarly considering a policy change in which the U.S. may choose to prioritize military exercises with NATO members that are spending the set percentage of their GDPs on defense, the officials said. His administration has already signaled to America’s European allies that the U.S. could reduce its military presence in Europe, and one option now under consideration is to reposition some U.S. troops in the region so they are focused in or around NATO countries that have scaled their defense spending to meet the specific percentage of their GDPs, the officials said. 

Asked about Trump considering making these changes to how the U.S. engages with NATO, a National Security Council official said in a written statement, “President Trump is committed to NATO and Article V.”

Sen. Chris Coons, of Delaware, the top Democrat on the Senate Appropriations Subcommittee for Defense and a senior senator on the Foreign Relations panel, said Trump’s nominee to be U.S. ambassador to NATO, Matthew Whitaker, “gave very reassuring answers” on the administration’s commitment to NATO and Article 5.

Trump has repeatedly criticized NATO countries for not meeting the current NATO member goal of spending 2% of their GDP on defense. He has argued that the disparity is unfair and puts an added burden on the U.S.

NATO countries agreed more than a decade ago to set the spending goal for each of them at 2% of GDP. But Trump has pushed to increase that percentage. Most recently he said NATO members should spend 5% of their GDP on defense, though the U.S. does not currently do that.

“NATO has to pay more,” Trump said in January after taking office. “It’s ridiculous because it affects them a lot more. We have an ocean in between.”

According to NATO’s most recent statistics, last year 23 NATO members’ defense spending exceeded 2% of their GDP. Five of those nations — Estonia, Greece, Latvia, Poland and the U.S. — spent more than 3% on defense. Poland had the highest percentage, dedicating 4.12% of its GDP to defense.

The potential shift in how the U.S. participates in NATO comes as Trump is pushing European allies to do more to aid Ukraine in its war with Russia and to play a major role in maintaining peace in the country if a deal to end the war is reached.

“I was contacted by several European ambassadors concerned about rumors that Trump might make some negative announcement about NATO,” Coons told NBC News in an interview on Wednesday. Trump didn’t announce anything at his joint address to Congress on Tuesday night, but Coons said, “If you’re not given pause by everything about President Trump’s statements and actions on foreign policy, you’re not paying attention.”

Trump threatened to withdraw the U.S. from NATO during his first term and has questioned the merits of Article 5 for the U.S. The article was designed to protect European nations from the Soviet Union during the Cold War. It has been triggered just once, after the 9/11 attacks on the U.S.

Ukraine has sought NATO membership, but the Trump administration has said that would not be part of any negotiated peace deal.

[Derby]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-03-06/us-presses-ukraine-for-quick-ceasefire-to-go-with-minerals-deal

US Presses Ukraine for Quick Truce to Go With Minerals Deal

European officials have been told that President Donald Trump wants to link the proposed US-Ukraine minerals deal to demands for Kyiv to commit to a quick ceasefire with Russia, according to people familiar with the matter.

Washington has indicated that Trump is ready to finalize the agreement on natural resources, which has been on hold since his Oval Office fallout with Volodymyr Zelenskiy last week, on condition the Ukrainian leader agrees to a tangible path for a truce and talks with Moscow, the people said.(...)

[asustadísimos]

[O sos boludo o sos ladrón:
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/X6wLqFtwV3Q

En un país que es un meme,
donde estafan sin parar,
inflaron una moneda
y la hicieron reventar.
¡Ay!, 'ponzidente',
aflojá con el chamullo,
que los chorros que afanaron
son todos amigos tuyos.

Dilema hamletiano de la derecha delirante contestataria conservadora del modelo superado: o boba o mala.

¡Ay!, 'ladrillenta',
aflojá con el chamuyo,
que los chorros que afanaron
te llevan de cabeza al trullo.]

[cujo]

No sé trata de si los rusofonos ucranianos son étnica o culturalmente diferentes.
Se trata de cómo está definido EN LAS MENTES DE LOS IMPLICADOS el marco de referencia.
Si ellos creen que ser rusos es diferente a ser ucranianos, aunque objetivamente no lo sea, para los implicados en el conflicto lo es.
Y ellos creen que son diferentes porque les pusieron en una difícil tesitura.
La de cambiar su marco cultural además del político.
Es probable que si el marco político hubiera sido suficientemente atractivo SIN modificar el cultural, hubieran aceptado.
Pero les cambiaron el político POR causa del cultural ( o idiomático, que es confundido mucho, y usado torticeramente por los demagogos).
En el resultado no importa quien tiene razón objetiva. Importa quién tiene más recursos y considera existencia mantener su postura.

Y eso debería haberse leído mejor en la UE.
Los americanos lo hacían , pero les interesó así.


Mi opinión.

Sds.


Añado que creo que Rusia se quedará el este del río, y si tardan en rendirse los ucras, hasta unir transnitria por odesa.

Te aseguro que de los rusófonos de Ucrania, de no ser por Crimea ni el 1% se considera ruso en absoluto. Ni aunque tengan parientes cercanos rusos, que muchos los tienen, como pasa en Rusia al contrario.

Crimea es otra cosa, de hecho por eso era la única zona de Ucrania con un gobierno autonómico. Algo que Yanukovich quería cambiar para separar el Este (ahora se sabe que Yanukovich estaba literalmente a sueldo de Putin, pero entonces no se sabía con seguridad, y también es cierto que existía cierto nacionalismo regional por el efecto riqueza y no querer pagar impuestos a Kiev etc, esas mandangas que pasan en todos lados pero que les han costado CARÍSIMAS porque ahora toda esa zona es un erial).

Alguno hay no te digo que no, pero como en España algún matao querría que aquí gobernara Putin. No te hablo de los territorios ocupados ahora mismo, claro. Ahí seguro que hay rusos rusísimos.

Por x razones conozco a varios ucranianos de Odesa ... y se consideran rusos, eso si, odian a putin

[conejo]

(Por cierto, ¿no les crea cierto desasosiego la foto de Marco Rubio con eso en la frente?)

Mucho 

[Saturio]

(Por cierto, ¿no les crea cierto desasosiego la foto de Marco Rubio con eso en la frente?)

Mucho 

Cuidado, la alcaldesa de Boston es demócrata y también ha comparecido hoy con la cruz de ceniza:



Y Alexandra Ocasio

[Derby]

(Por cierto, ¿no les crea cierto desasosiego la foto de Marco Rubio con eso en la frente?)

Mucho 

Cuidado, la alcaldesa de Boston es demócrata y también ha comparecido hoy con la cruz de ceniza:



Y Alexandra Ocasio

Me parece muy curioso hacer esta especie de alarde. Además se ve una ceniza muy oscura, consistente y untuosa. Habitualmente deja un pequeño rastro pero nada parecido a lo que se ve en estas fotos.

[asustadísimos]

[Aranceles-Trump.— No se crean nada. Los estadounidenses no se están anticipando importaciones antes de que su Gobierno suba discrecional y arbitrariamente los tipos de gravamen.

Lo razonable es pensar que están aumentado los valores en aduana, no las cantidades importadas, que son rígidas a corto plazo por muchas razones. Los que se anticiparían serían los exportadores extranjeros vía precios de exportación. Ya tendrán ocasión de bajarlos cuando se materialicen los anuncios de subidas de aranceles. Es lo que tiene para el hegemón monetario la paradoja amo-esclavo.

El error está en pensar el comercio exterior de un hegemón monetario con el esquema ofertademandista y como si fuera una economía cualquiera.

Además, los exportadores a EE. UU. saben que a EE. UU. o no le interesa sustituir importaciones o sencillamente no puede.

Esta política arancelaria que se anuncia es cuasicambiaria. No es comercial. La depreciación/devaluación del dólar es inevitable. Se trata de que no sea abrupta. Así, primero, se cerrará el episodio de inflación rara; en segundo lugar, se encontrará un nuevo equilibrio cambiario duradero, propio de la nueva realidad internacional; y, finalmente, se minimizará la pérdida de hegemonía dólar.

Ya es tradición usar la política fiscal como si fuera monetaria (p. ej., los pagos a cuenta del impuesto sobre sociedades).

La bajada de tipos de hoy por el BCE da un poco de holgura a EE. UU. en su proceso de ajuste cambiario.

EE. UU. está en un lío tremendo por haber retardado tanto la crisis con la trampa de la inflación, en un mundo en el que, a la UE y el euro —que no es ninguna mierda—, se le ha unido la ampliación BRICS.

Miren aquí los diferenciales que hay en el rendimiento de la deuda pública estadounidense con la eurozona y China, y tengan en cuenta que el mundo está inundado de estos títulos tan generosos... salvo trampa cambiaria:
https://es.investing.com/rates-bonds/world-government-bonds]

[Derby]

https://fortune.com/2025/03/06/bond-sell-off-germany-causing-borrowing-costs-spike-around-world/

A bond sell-off that began in Germany is causing borrowing costs to spike around the world

The typically austere German government is poised to dramatically boost the supply of government debt. Investors had not anticipated such a big move and then also had to trim their expectations for future rate cuts from the ECB, pushing yields higher. Market uncertainty also looms large amid Donald Trump’s tariffs and trade war worries.

The global bond sell-off continued Thursday after the European Central Bank indicated future interest-rate cuts might pause or slow this year. The fixed-income selling spree started the day prior because of German fiscal policy, however, as a historic deal to reform debt policy rules shocked investors. That caused a surge in borrowing costs that cascaded to other markets, including the U.S.

Analysts think the agreement could spur additional spending in excess of $1.3 trillion, or about a quarter the size of Germany’s economy. The German government is traditionally renowned for its relative austerity, but an effort to revive a stagnating economy—and boost military spending as President Trump appears to unwind America’s commitments to Ukraine and European security—prompted German 10-year yields to rise more than 30 percentage points, their biggest one-day move in 28 years. 

That sell-off occurred because markets hadn’t anticipated such a massive boost in the supply of government debt, said Matt Sheridan, lead portfolio manager for income strategies at AllianceBernstein. Without a corresponding increase in demand, prices of existing bonds fall. When a bond’s market price drops, its yield—which represents the asset’s annual return—must move higher.

“That’s the big part of the story,” Sheridan said, “but bond yields can also react [off] the back of changing expectations for central bank rate cuts.”

The Federal Reserve forced traders to trim their expectations for interest-rate reductions late last year, and a similar dynamic is playing out in Europe after the ECB struck a similarly hawkish tone on monetary policy. When a central bank hikes interest rates, demand for existing bonds decreases.

“Once you start to take away potential rate cuts from the market, then owning 5- or 10-year bonds just [doesn’t] become as attractive,” Sheridan said, “because you’re not going to get the support from the central bank being as aggressive as the market priced in yesterday.”

And when yields soar in European nations, he added, they tend to then rise everywhere, at least when it comes to developed economies. If investors decide to move capital from Japan to Germany to take advantage of higher yields in the latter, for instance, the price of Japanese bonds decreases—which, of course, causes their yields to move higher.

Treasuries have performed better than most of their peers in the sovereign bond market, but U.S. debt has not emerged unscathed. The 10-year yield, a benchmark for rates on mortgages and other common loans throughout the economy, briefly ticked above the 4.30% mark on Thursday, up from a 2025 low of 4.17% on Tuesday.

Donald Trump’s fixation on tariffs, meanwhile, also looms large. If a global trade war causes inflation, that will likely prompt rate hikes from the Fed and other central banks, weighing on demand for bonds and pushing yields higher. Conversely, if higher prices on imports and decreased global trade slows growth, Fed rate cuts, and therefore higher bond prices, could result.

The jury is still very much out on whether either scenario—or both outcomes—will occur. Since mid-January, the 10-Treasury yield has fallen roughly 50 basis points.

“It looks like the bond market has decided to bypass short-term inflation concerns and focus on the long-term prospects,” Kathy Jones, chief fixed income strategist at Charles Schwab, wrote in a note Wednesday. “As a result, the yield curve has inverted again with the fed funds rate higher than yields for all maturities.”

It’s not all doom and gloom for fixed-income investors going forward, Sheridan said. Given the market’s heightened volatility, though, it might be a good idea to stay out of 20- to 30-year bonds.

“High quality bonds are attractive, just yield curve selection is important,” he said. “Remaining disciplined and remaining a little bit more liquid in these markets makes sense.”

Stock moves are what typically grab the headlines. These days, however, bonds are far from boring.

[gregorsamesa]

En plena ostentación del Ramadán y lo que os preocupa a algunos es la celebración del miércoles de ceniza.... 

[asustadísimos]

[El BCE hoy:

• «Hemos bajado 0,25 puntos porcentuales nuestros tipos de interés oficiales. Hemos tomado esta decisión porque la inflación está próxima a estabilizarse en torno a nuestro objetivo del 2 % y la economía se enfrenta a factores adversos».

• «El proceso de desinflación sigue avanzando. En términos generales, la inflación ha seguido evolucionando en consonancia con lo esperado por nuestros expertos, y las últimas proyecciones están estrechamente alineadas con las anteriores perspectivas de inflación. Los expertos consideran ahora que la inflación general se situará, en promedio, en el 2,3 % en 2025, el 1,9 % en 2026 y el 2,0 % en 2027. La revisión al alza de la inflación general para 2025 refleja un mayor dinamismo de los precios de la energía».

https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/press_conference/visual-mps/2025/html/mopo_statement_explained_march.es.html

https://www.bde.es/f/webbe/GAP/Secciones/SalaPrensa/ComunicadosBCE/DecisionesPoliticaMonetaria/25/mp250306.pdf

Todo encaja, señoras, señores. Esto va deprisísima.]

[Saturio]

En plena ostentación del Ramadán y lo que os preocupa a algunos es la celebración del miércoles de ceniza.... 

No me preocupa, qué con su pan se lo coman.

[Cadavre Exquis]

https://elpais.com/economia/2025-03-06/el-bce-afronta-su-ultima-reunion-facil-bajara-los-tipos-de-interes-mirando-de-reojo-a-trump.html

Saludos.

[Saturio]

Dia rojísimo.
Además se huele que el día de la capitulación está rondando.

El Euro va poco a poco remontando. Aunque aquí se bajan los tipos y Powell parece que aguanta el suyo.

[Cadavre Exquis]

https://cincodias.elpais.com/opinion/2025-03-06/las-claves-el-mundo-danza-al-ritmo-de-las-butades-de-trump.html

https://cincodias.elpais.com/mercados-financieros/2025-03-05/los-planes-de-gasto-aleman-disparan-los-tipos-de-la-deuda-y-la-prima-de-riesgo-espanola-baja-de-los-60-puntos.html

https://cincodias.elpais.com/mercados-financieros/2025-03-06/el-bazuca-de-merz-para-sacar-alemania-del-letargo-recibe-el-apoyo-de-inversores-y-analistas.html

https://cincodias.elpais.com/mercados-financieros/2025-03-05/la-bolsa-y-el-ibex-35.html

Saludos.