PPCC: Pisitófilos Creditófagos. Veranito 2025

[cujo]

Los gitanos ahorran en billetes de 50€ y en cadenas de oro .
Y que no les token

[asustadísimos]

[El valor del dinero es la deuda a la que representa.

Las criptos no tienen deudor. No son activos financieros, ergo, no pueden ser dinero.

Como seguro que no son activos financieros, Rallo & al. dicen que son activos reales, como las conchas o los metales. Ja, ja, ja. ¡Son activos ficticios!, que es un nivel taxonómico anterior. Ser un mamífero es anterior a ser clasificado como hombre o mujer. Si no eres mamífero, se acabó la discusión.

Son activos ficticios a los que se refiere un correo electrónico especial encriptado.

¿A qué deudor vas a ir con tu token digital para cambiarlo por dólares? Durante una temporada puede ser que haya un sitio donde lo compran, que actúa de contrapartida genérica. Pero te lo compra con condiciones (p. ej., que sea poca cantidad) y por razones interesadas, no porque tenga que cumplir con la prestación que constituye el objeto de una obligación suya representada por el token digital.

Si el que ha emitido el token digital lo tiene 'respaldao' en bonos del Tesoro (es decir, tiene bonos del Tesoro en su Activo), es él y solo él quien puede cobrar los cupones y obtener el reembolso el día del vencimiento.

Hay un día en el que mandaremos los buenos procapitalistas y se habrá acabado que las institcuione jueguen a la filatelia financiera, perdón a coleccionar tokens digitales. Ese día , querido cripto-bro, ¡a buscarte la vida en tu comunismo!

Hay que estar muy 'colgao' para creerse las criptos. Muy muy 'colgao' y tener mucho odio dentro, estar muy resentido. Por eso las criptos son cosa como del diablo, del enemigo de la Nación. Las criptos forman parte del arsenal de la guerra sucia. Si EE. UU. las saca es porque va a emplearlas contra las demás Naciones y porque se halla en grandes dificultades.]

[asustadísimos]

[Anda diciéndose en los mentideros de la Villa (ABC, 25/07/2025) que Alberto Nadal es un 'Montoro Boy', en principio, comprometido con la excepcionalidad regulatoria gasista.

Este asunto, aparentemente inocuo, separa muchísimo al PP del Poder con mayúsculas, porque Alberto Nadal era la gran baza de Feijóo para Capitán General de Economía y Hacienda.

No nos cabe duda de que Alberto Nadal es un profesional superválido, por el que sentimos respeto, admiración, incluso afecto.

Su problema: los gafes del anti-Sááánchez, liderados por Aznar y Ayuso, que han creado un universo de presunciones en las que probar en contra es casi peor. Imaginémoslo:

—Tú siempre has sido un Pueda-Haga —dicho solo para picarle—.
—¡No! Yo hago técnicamente lo que hay que hacer.
—¡No me digas!
—Que sepas que yo siempre estuve por encima de Aznar y Montoro, dada mi valía técnica. Soy de Icade, hablo inglés y mi mujer es una lumbrera.
—Pues yo no te veo el halo. Y, cuando el río suena...
—Estoy preparando un dossier para probar que yo, aunque fui Secretario de Estado de Energía y, luego, de Presupuestos, durante muchos muchos años bajo Los Montoros, estuve al margen de sus enjuagues y sobre todo del chalaneo gasista.
—¿Enjuagues? ¿Chalaneo?
—¡Glups!
—O sea, que tú eras independiente, ¿no?
—Sí.
—¡Ya! ¿Y qué te parece Noelia 'la Marroquina'.
—Que puede hacer y hace, perdón, podía y hacía.
—¡Ah! ¿Y un tío tan brillante profesionalmente como tú, qué leches haces en el sector público?
—A mí es que me gusta poder hacer y no hacer.
—O sea, que lo que te gusta es no hacer na.
—¡Eso! Yo, hacer na.

https://www.abc.es/espana/rigor-noelia-nunez-abre-dudas-pp-sobre-20250725034403-nt.html

Dado el estado de salud de Aznar (y su pelazo tan negro) y la lozanía de Ayuso (y lo libre que va a estar dentro de poco, salvo los días de visita), no veo cuatro legislaturas de Sánchez. ¡Veo cinco!]

[Frommer]

Este podría ser el DOLOR que viene cuando el ladrillo no haya quien lo token ni con un palo (gracias cujo):

https://ethic.es/desigualdad-duele-biologia-justifica-limitarla?_gl=1*btuh4i*_up*MQ..*_ga*NTI3NDg2Njc2LjE3NTMzNjE4NTU.*_ga_0LL6WCT924*czE3NTMzNjE4NTMkbzEkZzEkdDE3NTMzNjIwNzMkajYwJGwwJGgxNjY3MjI1OTU2

Una base biológica para la justicia social...

[Derby]

https://www.ft.com/content/2450c892-3b9e-431e-a352-1d01df269617

Wall Street ‘euphoria’ sparks bubble warnings

Analysts point to signs of market froth as bitcoin soars and ‘meme stocks’ re-emerge


The S&P 500 stock index has hit a string of all-time peaks this month, while US corporate borrowing costs are nearing their lowest level in decades © Spencer Platt/Getty Images

Wall Street’s relentless rally this summer has driven stock valuations close to record levels, prompting warnings that “euphoric” markets are entering bubble territory.

The S&P 500 index has hit a string of all-time peaks this month, while US corporate borrowing costs are nearing their lowest level in decades, in a dramatic turnaround from the April slump sparked by Donald Trump’s trade war.

Even as the president signs deals that confirm US import tariffs at their highest in decades, signs of market froth have multiplied. Highly-valued tech stocks have roared to new highs — making Nvidia the first $4tn public company — while the 2021 “meme stock” craze has resurfaced, with retail traders piling into shares of camera maker GoPro and doughnut chain Krispy Kreme.

“I think you’re beginning to see perhaps some very early parallels to what you saw back with the internet boom in the late 90s, early 2000s,” said Dan Ivascyn, chief investment officer at $2.1tn asset manager Pimco. “There’s this lottery ticket mentality that tends to exist . . . It’s a dangerous set up.”

Stocks in the S&P 500 are now valued by investors at more than 3.3 times their sales according to Bloomberg data, an all-time high.



A Barclays “equity euphoria” indicator, a composite of derivatives flows, volatility and sentiment, has surged to twice its normal level, into territory associated in the past with asset bubbles.

“[The indicator] is clearly showing that the market is euphoric,” said Stefano Pascale, head of US equities derivatives strategy at the bank.

Investors have greeted with relief a US-Japan deal setting tariffs on imports from Japan at 15 per cent and the prospect of a similar deal with the EU. Although those levies are far above levels that prevailed before Trump entered the White House, they are less extreme than those threatened by his “liberation day” announcement, which had sent markets into a tailspin.

“These first deals are bad, but investors are happy with anything but a full trade war,” said Luca Paolini, chief strategist at Pictet Asset Management.

Equities have been immune to concerns about excessive US government borrowing and Federal Reserve independence that have knocked Treasuries and the dollar, which is down nearly 10 per cent this year against a basket of rival currencies.

Many of the large-cap tech stocks responsible for the bulk of the US market’s rally in recent years have driven the rebound from the sell-off earlier in the year. Chipmaker Nvidia and Facebook-parent Meta are up 100 per cent and 49 per cent since their April intraday lows.

Across the S&P, “price to sales, price to cash flow, price to book, price to dividends, they’re all near record levels”, said Rob Arnott, founder and chair of asset management group Research Affiliates, who likened investing in the small group of tech stocks that dominate the index to picking up pennies in front of a steamroller.

“The market is pricing the current dominant AI players as if they will have no competition in the future,” he said. “At the same time there’s caution about moving away from the popular and frothy names because if you’re too early, you’re in trouble.”

A cluster of smaller companies have fared even better. Strong sales from government contracts have helped defence group Palantir rise 130 per cent since its shares bottomed out in April. Crypto exchange Coinbase has surged nearly 180 per cent, carried higher by a tide of optimism in the digital asset industry triggered by Trump’s election victory in November.

Bitcoin climbed above $120,000 for the first time last week, as companies and investors continue to pile into crypto assets that are being brought into the financial market mainstream.

The exuberance has spread to corporate credit, where the additional interest rate on highly rated US companies over benchmark government debt has shrunk to 0.8 percentage points, close to its lowest since 2005.

Analysts at Deutsche Bank in a note on Thursday questioned whether a rise in borrowing to fund stock purchases was a sign of the “hottest euphoria” since 1999 and 2007.

[Elcasco]

https://www.elconfidencial.com/inmobiliario/residencial/2025-07-25/riqueza-inmobiliaria-hogares-ladrillo-alquiler-banco-de-espana_4178028/

http://archive.today/J8GyB

El boom de la vivienda ahoga la rentabilidad del alquiler, pero dispara la riqueza familiar 

La vivienda registra, desde hace dos años, fuertes subidas de precios, lo cual ha disparado la riqueza inmobiliaria de los hogares, pero también ha erosionado la rentabilidad del alquiler


La vivienda registra, desde hace dos años, fuertes subidas de precios, lo cual ha tenido un doble impacto en el bolsillo de las familias y de los inversores inmobiliarios, ya que, por un lado, ha disparado la riqueza inmobiliaria de los hogares hasta niveles históricamente altos, mientras que, al mismo tiempo, ha ido erosionando poco a poco la rentabilidad bruta del alquiler, que ha caído hasta niveles de hace quince años.

Es decir, los hogares con inmuebles en propiedad han visto cómo su riqueza ha aumentado sustancialmente con el encarecimiento de la vivienda, pero los que destinan esas viviendas al alquiler están viendo cómo la rentabilidad cae mes a mes. Es decir, los propietarios son cada vez más ricos, lo cual es, aparentemente, una buena noticia si no fuera porque cada vez son menos los hogares que concentran más propiedades. Es decir, aumenta la riqueza inmobiliaria global de las familias, pero dicha riqueza cada vez se concentra en menos manos.

En primer lugar, cada vez son menos los hogares con una vivienda en propiedad. El porcentaje ha pasado del 85% en 2002 a situarse por debajo del 75% en 2024. Según datos del Catastro recogidos por El País, en 2006, España contaba con algo más de 20 millones de viviendas. En 2024, esa cifra rozaba los 28,5 millones. Sin embargo, mientras que hace una década el 67% de los titulares tenía solo un bien en propiedad, ese porcentaje ha ido cayendo de manera sostenida y ahora se encuentra en el 53%. En cambio, los que tienen de dos a cinco inmuebles han pasado del 31% al 42%, los que tienen de 6 a 10 han aumentado del 1,7% al 4,3% y los que superan la decena —principalmente personas jurídicas— han doblado su proporción, hasta el 1,1%.

En España, el Instituto Nacional de Estadística (INE) clasifica la riqueza de los hogares en activos reales y financieros. Los activos reales incluyen la vivienda principal, otras propiedades inmobiliarias, negocios, joyas, obras de arte, etc., mientras que los activos financieros abarcan cuentas bancarias, acciones, fondos de inversión, etc. Como muestra el gráfico superior, desde 2005 y hasta 2022 (últimos datos disponibles), se observa cómo, aunque la vivienda principal sigue siendo la fuente principal de la riqueza de las familias, su peso va disminuyendo poco a poco, mientras que va aumentando el peso de otras propiedades inmobiliarias.

Si tenemos en cuenta el valor conjunto de todos esos inmuebles, ya sean la vivienda principal u otro tipo de propiedades, este ha ido incrementándose durante la última década hasta alcanzar máximos históricos. Es decir, después de tocar fondo en 2013 y 2014 (4,1 billones de euros), coincidiendo con el suelo en el mercado inmobiliario en España, la riqueza inmobiliaria de las familias se ha ido recuperando paulatinamente hasta que el año pasado, y después de casi una década, las familias volvían a tener la misma riqueza inmobiliaria que en el año 2008, en el pico de la burbuja inmobiliaria: unos 6,2 billones de euros.

El imparable ascenso del precio de la vivienda, especialmente desde 2022, ha llevado a dicha cifra a romper la barrera de los 7 billones de euros, la más alta jamás alcanzada. Ni siquiera durante la burbuja los hogares atesoraron tanta riqueza en ladrillo como ahora.

En relación con la riqueza de las familias, hay que tener en cuenta otra variable, y es la que mide la relación entre la riqueza inmobiliaria y la renta bruta disponible de los hogares (RBD). Así, si bien la riqueza inmobiliaria de las familias está en máximos históricos, si se compara con la renta bruta disponible, estamos muy por debajo de los niveles de la burbuja. ¿Por qué? Básicamente, porque aunque la riqueza inmobiliaria de las familias era algo inferior en 2008 (6,2 billones frente a los 7 billones actuales), en aquel momento también era mucho menor la renta disponible de las familias. De tal manera que los activos inmobiliarios se encontraban en plena burbuja casi un 1000% por encima de la renta de los hogares, frente al 680% actual.

"La riqueza inmobiliaria de las familias está en máximos históricos en valor absoluto (7.071.617 millones en el primer trimestre de 2025). Sin embargo, en porcentaje de la renta bruta disponible (RBD) se encuentra en el 680%, que es un fuerte repunte respecto al trimestre anterior, pero está por debajo del máximo que se alcanzó en el tercer trimestre de 2022 (697%). La razón por la que no se encuentra en el máximo histórico en términos de porcentaje es porque el denominador (RBD) ha crecido de forma más pronunciada que la riqueza inmobiliaria en estos años", asegura Judit Montoriol, lead economist de CaixaBank Research.

"La renta bruta disponible de los hogares ha ido mejorando respecto a la época del boom y, especialmente, en los últimos años. Desde 2022, por ejemplo, mientras que la riqueza inmobiliaria de las familias ha crecido casi un 20%, la renta disponible de los hogares se ha incrementado casi en un 21%, sin descontar la inflación. Esto ha provocado que la ratio que mide la relación entre la riqueza inmobiliaria y la renta de las familias (riqueza inmobiliaria/renta de las familias) haya descendido en estos últimos dos años. Así, por ejemplo, el dato de 2024 indica que la riqueza inmobiliaria de las familias es un 680% superior a la renta de las familias, cuando en 2008 dicho ratio alcanzaba el 960%. Es decir, aunque la riqueza inmobiliaria es más elevada actualmente que en 2008, la ratio baja porque la renta de las familias ha subido con más intensidad, a lo cual han contribuido una serie de factores como el aumento en los salarios, las pensiones o la creación de empleo", añade Mª Jesús Fernández, economista senior de Funcas.

"Actualmente", la riqueza inmobiliaria supera ligeramente los 7 billones de euros y la renta de las familias superaba recientemente el billón de euros. En cambio, en 2008, la riqueza inmobiliaria era de 6 billones y la renta de las familias rondaba los 700.000 millones. Es decir, la renta disponible ahora es un 30% superior a la de entonces, mientras que la riqueza inmobiliaria es un 14% superior a la de entonces", añade Fernández, quien aclara, no obstante, que "hay que tener en cuenta la inflación de todo el periodo. Desde 2008, los precios han subido mucho más, por lo que, en términos reales, no somos más ricos a nivel inmobiliario".

Según los datos publicados el pasado mes de abril por el INE, la renta disponible de las familias españolas superó el billón de euros en 2024 por primera vez en la historia, mientras que los ingresos de las familias aumentaron en casi 83.000 millones de euros a lo largo del año, lo que supuso un crecimiento del 8,7% respecto a 2023. Un incremento superior a la inflación y a la población, lo que significó una importante ganancia de poder adquisitivo.

Precisamente, la salud financiera de los hogares españoles se ha ido fortaleciendo gracias a la creación de empleo y las subidas salariales. De hecho, la remuneración total por salarios inyectó 56.000 millones de euros adicionales en la economía familiar durante el último año. Asimismo, hay récord en el número de personas trabajando. Sin ir más lejos, en el segundo trimestre del año, España alcanzó un nuevo récord de ocupación al superar, por primera vez, los 22 millones de personas ocupadas.

Además de los salarios, el dinero extra de los hogares también proviene, en gran medida, del sector público. En concreto, de las prestaciones sociales, con las pensiones a la cabeza, que son uno de los grandes motores del crecimiento de la renta de las familias. Estas ayudas aumentaron en 26.000 millones solo en 2024 y acumulan un incremento total de 201.000 millones desde 2008. Eso sí, a diferencia de la era de la burbuja inmobiliaria, cuando el Estado disfrutaba de superávit, este considerable aumento del gasto social se sostiene en gran medida mediante déficit público, es decir, deuda.

La vivienda en alquiler pierde atractivo inversor

El segundo efecto de la fuerte subida de los precios de la vivienda durante los dos últimos años es la erosión de la rentabilidad bruta del alquiler. ¿Está dejando de ser la vivienda un activo refugio de la inversión?, ¿comprar un piso para destinarlo al alquiler ha dejado de ser tan rentable como parecía?

No necesariamente, ya que, aunque la rentabilidad está cayendo paulatinamente a medida que el precio de la vivienda sube, también es cierto que la rentabilidad de la vivienda, incluyendo no solo el alquiler sino también la revalorización de la misma, va en aumento. Es decir, si se materializa la venta, lo cierto es que la inversión en vivienda sigue siendo bastante rentable, tal y como muestra el gráfico inferior.

Sin embargo, la rentabilidad bruta por alquiler, aunque se mantiene relativamente estable a nivel histórico, muestra una tendencia a la baja desde 2015, cuando alcanzó el máximo del 4,58%, para ir cayendo progresivamente hasta el 3,19%, último dato del Banco de España en el primer trimestre de 2025. El nivel más bajo desde 2010.
Una caída que se debe a que, si bien los alquileres han subido en los últimos años, la subida ha sido mucho más intensa en los precios de venta, como muestran los datos recopilados por el Banco de España.

El gráfico inferior también recoge la evolución del Índice General de Precios (IGP) de venta de vivienda libre y del Índice de Precios del Consumo Armonizado (IPCA) para alquiler, ambos proporcionados por el INE. En los cinco últimos años, ambos índices han experimentado incrementos más o menos constantes. En el caso del IGP de vivienda libre en venta, uno de los valores más elevados del periodo se corresponde con el primer trimestre de 2025, con un 142,2%. Por su parte, el IPCA del alquiler se ha elevado hasta el 111% en el mismo primer trimestre. Para homogeneizar estos dos índices, se ha tomado como base 100 el tercer trimestre de 2018.

Y, como advertían los registradores en 2021, "para maximizar la rentabilidad de los alquileres debemos tener en cuenta que los datos demuestran que es más beneficioso invertir en pisos baratos para destinar al alquiler, así como que es más rentable comprar pisos de segunda mano para alquilar". Y cada vez es más complicado encontrar pisos baratos, y menos en ubicaciones no solo con fuerte demanda en alquiler, sino con una demanda capaz o dispuesta a pagar alquileres elevados.

Además, a la hora de analizar la rentabilidad del alquiler también es necesario considerar la inflación, y la inflación histórica con la que cerró España 2021, en el 6,5%, anuló por primera vez en 15 años la rentabilidad que ofrecía, de media, un alquiler en España, en aquel momento en el 3,7%, según los datos del Banco de España. Y la situación no ha mejorado.

"Al hablar de la rentabilidad bruta del alquiler hay que aclarar que se calcula dividiendo los ingresos anuales del alquiler por el precio de compra del inmueble. Para el conjunto de España, según cálculos del Banco de España, dicha rentabilidad se encontraría en el 3,19% en el primer trimestre de 2025, mostrando una gradual tendencia descendente, reflejo de que el precio de compraventa está aumentando a un mayor ritmo que los alquileres. Por tanto, señala un descenso de la rentabilidad que se obtendría de comprar una vivienda con la finalidad de alquiler", explica Montoriol.

"Además", añade, "si se compara dicha rentabilidad con la que ofrecen otros activos alternativos, la inversión en vivienda no parece de las mejores opciones. Hay que aclarar también que esta métrica se refiere a la rentabilidad bruta, sin restar costes de propiedad de la vivienda (mantenimiento, impuestos, etc.), ni tampoco tiene en cuenta el factor de revalorización de la vivienda".

Es cierto que los alquileres han subido con fuerza en los últimos años, pero no es menos cierto que muchos hogares han tocado techo en cuanto a lo que pueden pagar para poder vivir de alquiler. Es decir, para compensar el mayor precio de la vivienda, los inversores apenas tienen margen para subir los alquileres, porque muchos hogares están al límite. Según el último informe inmobiliario de Bankinter, precisamente es en el alquiler donde se están produciendo tensiones sin precedentes, con tasas de esfuerzo en niveles incluso superiores al 50%, unos 15 puntos por encima de las tasas de esfuerzo de la compra de vivienda.

La vivienda registra, desde hace dos años, fuertes subidas de precios, lo cual ha tenido un doble impacto en el bolsillo de las familias y de los inversores inmobiliarios, ya que, por un lado, ha disparado la riqueza inmobiliaria de los hogares hasta niveles históricamente altos, mientras que, al mismo tiempo, ha ido erosionando poco a poco la rentabilidad bruta del alquiler, que ha caído hasta niveles de hace quince años.

[Derby]

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/trump-clashes-with-powell-over-fed-renovations-during-unusual-visit-says-hed-love-lower-interest-rates-203706749.html

Trump clashes with Powell over Fed renovations during unusual visit, says he'd 'love' lower interest rates

President Trump made an unusual visit to the Federal Reserve on Thursday, donning a hard hat and being led on a tour of the construction site by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell to cap weeks of mounting criticisms over the $2.5 billion renovation project.

The two men also briefly sparred over the costs of the project as Trump claimed a new and higher price tag before Powell fact-checked him in real time before reporters.

After Trump said that the renovation cost had ballooned further to $3.1 billion, Powell shook his head no.

Trump then produced a piece of paper that Powell looked at briefly. The central banker noted that new figure added in the renovation of a third building — the William McChesney Martin building — that was finished years ago.

“You just added in a third building,” Powell said, standing alongside the president. "It's not new."

The two buildings under scrutiny are the Marriner Eccles building and a second building known as the Federal Reserve Board East Building, with the price tag for renovations there still at $2.5 billion, according to Fed documents.

Trump aides stood by the revised numbers and said that all three buildings should now be included when talking about the price tag. Deputy chief of staff James Blair, who joined the tour, later accused Powell of "splitting hairs."

The high-profile construction project on the two buildings — which started in mid-2022 and is on track to be completed by 2027 — was also toured by Republican Sens. Tim Scott (S.C.) and Thom Tillis (N.C.), as well as Trump's budget director, his director of federal housing, and others.

"We're just taking a look at what's happening," the president said of the overall reason for the visit. He acknowledged the complexity of the multiyear renovation project and noted that he saw "a lot of very expensive work, there’s no question about it."

Trump did continue pressing for lower interest rates during his visit, saying that he and Powell "had a little talk about [interest rates]" and that he believes that Powell will "do the right thing."

In addition, Trump played down his tensions with the Fed chair as he continued to distance himself from an effort to fire Powell. He said the Fed visit was about helping get the project finished, adding, "I don't want to be personal."

Later, Trump said of firing Powell: "To do that is a big move, and I just don’t think it’s necessary."

Asked what might lead him to back off the barrage of critiques that Trump has been leveling against Powell for weeks, the president said, "I'd love him to lower interest rates," before patting Powell on the back.

The larger clash over monetary policy

Trump's high-profile visit also comes as Powell is set to gather the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) next week for another interest rate decision, which Trump emphasized again and again on Thursday was his focus.


President Donald Trump listens as Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell speaks during a visit to the Federal Reserve, Thursday, July 24, 2025, in Washington. (AP Photo/Julia Demaree Nikhinson) · ASSOCIATED PRESS

But the Fed has worked to push back against the mounting pressure from Trump and apparent efforts to use questions around the construction costs to apply pressure for lower rates.

Fed staff gave reporters a tour of the building earlier in the day to underline that a significant contributor to the high price tag was security additions. The tour also buttressed their assertion that there were only two deviations from a National Capital Planning Commission (NCPC) approved plan — the removal of seating on the roof of the Eccles building and the removal of plans for water fountains in front of the east building.

The central bank has defended itself against the charges of lavish spending for weeks, even publishing a page on its website devoted to the renovations.

It says the increased costs came because of increased material costs and "unforeseen conditions" like asbestos, toxic contamination in the soil, and a higher-than-expected water table.

The two buildings, Powell said in a recent note, were in need of "significant structural repairs" after not having a comprehensive renovation since they were built in the 1930s.

Trump did offer critiques of the project Thursday, saying, "I see a very luxurious situation taking place, let's put it that way." But he added that he didn't want to be a Monday morning quarterback.

When pressed on whether this project could be considered a fireable offense, he said, "I don't want to put that in this category."

The central bank said in a Friday statement that it was "honored" to host Trump and "grateful for the President’s encouragement to complete this important project."

         
President Donald Trump, Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell, and Senator Tim Scott speak with a worker as he visits the Federal Reserve on July 24. (ANDREW CABALLERO-REYNOLDS/AFP via Getty Images) · ANDREW CABALLERO-REYNOLDS via Getty Images

Other key pressure points

In the coming weeks, Powell will also wrestle with calls from Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent for an "exhaustive internal review" of the Fed's operations as well as pressure from Republicans on Capitol Hill that could ramp up in the fall.

The Fed also got another new headache Thursday when a money manager — and Trump ally who recently served as an adviser to the Department of Government Efficiency — filed a lawsuit arguing the central bank is violating a 1976 federal law by keeping its policy meetings behind closed doors.

There's even a long-shot call for the Department of Justice to get involved and look at Powell personally.

Rep. Dan Meuser of Pennsylvania, a subcommittee chair on the House Financial Services Committee, is also reportedly moving forward with a congressional investigation of the Fed, according to PunchBowl News — even as many of his Senate colleagues have shied away from that idea.

Rep. Anna Paulina Luna of Florida, another Trump ally, formally requested that the DOJ investigate Powell for perjury over June comments about the renovations. That is seen as a long shot at best.


President Donald Trump descends a set of stairs as he tour the Federal Reserve renovation project on July 24. (Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images) · Chip Somodevilla via Getty Images

House Speaker Mike Johnson also said in an interview with Bloomberg reporters and editors this week that he is "disenchanted" with Powell and is even open to modifying the 1913 act that created the Fed.

That would be a major change, but it is not expected to come before Congress in the near term, as the House of Representatives went home Wednesday evening for a recess that is scheduled to last for the rest of the summer.

Scott — who also asked Powell about the Fed's renovations during a June 25 hearing and was on hand Thursday — sent Powell a letter Wednesday asking for more questions to be answered by Aug. 8. He said there were "distinct differences" between public plans about the renovation, Powell's testimony, and what the Fed has said on its website.

In any case, top Trump allies promised that they would keep the focus on the project, trying to argue that they simply wanted to keep costs under control

“We are going to continue to ask questions,” Office of Management and Budget director Russell Vought said after he returned to the White House following the tour, calling this the “first site visit.”

[Derby]

https://www.ft.com/content/4d2d9599-897c-4382-b1a7-8c25029e5dbc

It’s fear, not greed, that drives the stock market

‘Fomo’ is powering today’s frothy asset prices — but the fear of loss may be about to take over

The behaviour of equity markets over the course of this extraordinary year has come close to matching the dictionary definition of levitation. The Trump trade war, spiralling fiscal deficits and public debt, pervasive geopolitical risk, the radical dismantling of the postwar international order, declining global growth prospects — all have failed to hold back the magical rebound after investors’ initial panic in April over Donald Trump’s erratic on-off tariff tantrum.

Applying the yardstick that investment sage Warren Buffett regards as the best single measure of market valuation — stock market capitalisation relative to GDP — US equities are at historic record levels. The UK market has lagged behind the US on the GDP-ratio but the FTSE 100 index has nonetheless ventured into record high territory, while other developed world markets have proved surprisingly resilient.

In the face of another Trump tariff deadline on August 1, battle-hardened markets seem more vulnerable to a modest fit of the vapours than abject capitulation in response to this new test of nerves.

How, then, to explain the growing insouciance of investors this year towards headwinds that measure a full 12 on the Beaufort scale?   

At one level this gravity defiance has been about the “Taco” phenomenon; short for Trump Always Chickens Out, the brilliant abbreviation coined by the FT’s Rob Armstrong to explain investors’ willingness to shrug off the tariff threat.

But, at a more fundamental level, markets are preoccupied with the next stage of the digital revolution. Nobody really knows how artificial intelligence will affect the world but there is a widespread perception that it will utterly transform the functioning of labour and capital, revolutionise the nature of work and even redefine what it means to be human, thus providing unimaginable rocket fuel for corporate profits and equity market valuations. Or so techno optimists think, oblivious to daunting potential cost implications.

This is the stuff of incipient bubble euphoria, as portrayed in Extraordinary Popular Delusions & The Madness of Crowds by 19th century author Charles Mackay. Optimism about such revolutionary changes spurs excessive risk taking and borrowing as herd behaviour drives an accelerating stock market bandwagon.



Sure enough, recent market buoyancy has been driven by furious buying of US tech stocks which, among other things, has pushed chipmaker Nvidia’s market capitalisation to a world record $4tn-plus. Froth is everywhere. Excess liquidity in the system has spawned frenetic crypto speculation and growing use of crypto as collateral for lending and much else besides.

At the same time, companies, including the Trump family’s media firm, are stockpiling crypto assets, aiming to monetise the president’s promise to make the US “the crypto capital of the world” and cash in on the mainstreaming of this highly speculative alternative asset. Note, too, that Mira Murati, the former Open AI chief technology officer, has raised large sums for her Thinking Machines Lab, an AI start-up, that is revealing very little about what it is working on. That carries a striking echo of the infamous 18th century bubble-era flotation described by Charles Mackay whose prospectus trumpeted: “A company for carrying on an undertaking of great advantage, but nobody to know what it is.”

That could equally serve as a description of the current blank cheque Spac phenomenon, where special purpose acquisition companies are formed to raise money through initial public offerings with a view to buying unspecified existing listed companies. The Trump media outfit came to market via the boom time Spac short-cut.   

All this makes a nonsense of that staple of economic textbooks, the efficient market hypothesis, which asserts, broadly speaking, that the market is always correctly priced. More plausibly, economists seek to rationalise such speculative behaviour by relating asset prices to risk, which they equate with volatility.

Yet this definition of risk is not particularly helpful to mere mortals. Perhaps the old Wall Street adage that markets are driven by fear and greed may be nearer the mark — at least when it comes to fear. As Howard Marks, co-founder of Oaktree Capital Management, has put it: “I don’t think most investors fear volatility. In fact, I’ve never heard anyone say, ‘The prospective return isn’t high enough to warrant bearing all that volatility.’ What they fear is the possibility of permanent loss.”

In the aftermath of a bubble the losses can be awesome. In UBS’s latest Global Investment Returns Yearbook, Elroy Dimson, Paul Marsh and Mike Staunton estimate that the dotcom crash that began in March 2000 inflicted a UK market loss on investors in real terms of 49 per cent. It took until October 2006 for them to recoup their losses. Then, between June 2007 and March 2009 after the preceding credit bubble and the great financial crisis, UK equities fell again by 47 per cent in real terms.

Yet the salutary experience of these huge losses appears now to have been consigned to the back burner. That said, a different kind of fear is at work, namely the fear of missing out, or Fomo.



When this term first emerged in the mid-2000s it was used by clinicians to describe something that was happening on social media where young people, bombarded with images of the successes of their peers, became anxious that everyone else was having more fun than they were.

The clinical view of Fomo, with its emphasis on social contagion, readily migrates to the stock market context. Indeed, financial history is full of examples of precisely this kind of fear, not least in the case of Isaac Newton, the great astronomer, physicist and Master of the Mint, during the South Sea Bubble. The economic historian Charles Kindleberger recounts, in his book Manias, Panics and Crashes, how Newton sold out of his shares in the South Sea Company at a solid 100 per cent profit of £7,000 only to be infected months later by the general mania, as he observed the stunning profits earned by others. He re-entered the market at the top for a larger amount and ended up losing £20,000, or around £3.6mn in today’s money.

There are now signs that the intellectual climate is changing in relation to risk. This is reflected in a recent paper by Rob Arnott and Edward McQuarrie which highlights empirical evidence that risk alone fails to capture the messiness of human emotions in markets and that reward correlates only weakly and at times not at all with risk. In an ambitious attempt to replace risk theory with fear theory, they suggest that fear of missing out (Fomo) and fear of loss (Fol) are the dominant emotional drivers for investment behaviour. Their thinking also minimises the role of greed, which would have struck a chord with Warren Buffett’s late partner Charlie Munger, who once remarked in a distinctly Fomo mode that “the world is not driven by greed. It’s driven by envy”.

The paper argues, among other things, that fear is an appropriate response when investors face radical uncertainty rather than probabilistic uncertainty that can readily be quantified using metrics such as standard deviation. This fear, Arnott and McQuarrie say, becomes palpable when a narrative of revolutionary change takes hold, as with dotcoms and artificial intelligence. Stocks with low valuation multiples and small market caps, they add, may still be shunned by investors who fear they are missing out on some seemingly low-risk, super-innovative sure thing.     

Note, at this point, that those who succumb to Fomo are not invariably foolish. One factor that can inspire the syndrome is a worry that a window in the markets may be closing, thereby shrinking profitable investment opportunities. Consider the private markets. Howard Marks’s Oaktree Capital Management pursued a business model in the post-crisis period of ultra-low interest rates built on accepting and managing credit risk in private markets.

Part of the rationale was that at times when retail money plays a significant part in driving up asset prices in public markets, returns on those assets are subject to downward pressure. So one of the attractions for Oaktree in private credit was that mutual funds and exchange traded funds played little or no part in these markets, leaving an attractive illiquidity premium available to be harvested by expert investors.

That has now changed. Big global asset managers are busily channelling retail money into collective private market investment vehicles, which means that a window is indeed coming down on opportunities to reap an illiquidity premium in private equity or private credit.



This reflects interestingly on initiatives of UK chancellor Rachel Reeves to press British pension funds to increase their exposure to more risky, illiquid private markets. As Howard Marks put it, we often hear that riskier investments produce higher returns and if you want to make more money, take more risk. Yet both formulations are terrible because if riskier investments could be counted on to produce higher returns, they wouldn’t be riskier.

Here, in short, is a striking example of government encouraging procyclical investment just when the supposedly attractive illiquidity premium has already started to shrink.

The most explosive current instance of Fomo relates to another closing window. The value of global crypto assets reached $4tn for the first time this month as speculators anticipated a deluge of money into the sector in response to new US digital asset legislation. That number again. Crypto’s achievement is astonishing given that it is devoid of intrinsic value and its contribution to the productive economy is minimal compared to that of Nvidia et al. Its chief utility appears to be to enable payments by criminals and to scammers, while gratifying the urges of gung-ho speculators. It is striking that crypto’s performance has even made gold, the traditional if volatile bolt hole for nervous money in dangerous times, look boring.

Surely, you ask, the imprimatur of the US government and Trump’s commitment to build a strategic national bitcoin stockpile should provide underpinning for this otherwise fragile asset? Not if history is our guide. The great 18th century Mississippi bubble, initiated by the Scottish economic theorist and gambler John Law, obtained exclusive rights to develop land in French-owned Louisiana, along with monopoly rights over the French tobacco and slave trades. Law’s company even took over the collection of French taxes and management of the note issue — all with the backing of the French regent, the Duke of Orléans. Fomo fuelled the bubble until the whole edifice imploded spectacularly in 1720 amid rip-roaring inflation and spiralling government debt.

Crypto enthusiasts argue that the stablecoin version of crypto is now fit for inclusion in mainstream portfolios because, in addition to the new legal framework, it is backed by solid value in the shape of bank deposits, US Treasury securities and corporate bonds or loans. Yet the price of the backing assets can fluctuate. And as economists Yiming Ma, Yao Zeng and Anthony Lee Zhang point out in a recent University of Chicago paper, stablecoins are vulnerable to panic runs similar to bank runs because they hold illiquid assets while promising a fixed redemption value.

Veteran market observer and former bond trader Antony Peters warns against ignoring the old City adage that investors should never forget that the door marked “Entrance” is always larger than the one marked “Exit” and that the disproportionality is reflected in the promised juiciness of the investment’s return. Quite so.

What, then, should investors do to counteract these overwhelming fearful instincts? First, identify where, in the recurring oscillation between Fol and Fomo, we stand and what are the risks of a crash in a future grinding transition from Fomo to Fol. In my judgment, while a financial crisis will emerge in due course it is not necessarily imminent. The problem is rather that at today’s heady valuations investors are taking on a degree of risk that will not be rewarded by a commensurate risk premium.

That means that portfolio diversification is vital and there is a strong case for increasing exposure to boring assets, not least cash which has resumed yielding a real income after allowing for inflation.

But leave it to madcap gamblers, money launderers and fraudsters to diversify into crypto. Yes, you will miss out for a while in today’s manic pro-crypto climate. But in due course the crypto losses will be crushing.

[Derby]

https://www.baha.com/VDL-Trump-to-talk-trade-in-Scotland-on-Sunday/news/details/64526601

VDL, Trump to talk trade in Scotland on Sunday

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen announced on Friday that she will meet US President Donald Trump in Scotland this Sunday to discuss transatlantic trade ties. In a message posted on X, she said the meeting follows a "good call" with the president and aims to keep EU-US relations strong.

Trump, who is visiting Scotland this weekend, recently told reporters there's a 50% chance of reaching a trade agreement with the EU. Talks have intensified ahead of an expected US tariff hike from 15% to 30%, set to begin on August 1.

According to the Financial Times, Brussels is pushing to finalize a deal to cap tariffs at 15%, avoiding a sharp increase previously floated by Trump. The Sunday meeting could be key in sealing an agreement.

[newclo]

Buenas tardes
Feliz verano lleven

Me comenta un amigo de Barcelona con una pequeña inmobiliaria propia que, basado en los 50-70 pisos que vende al cabo del año, del verano pasado a este los precios de las operaciones cerradas están inflados un +20% de media.

Palabras literales y ventas reales entre particulares.
Lo de "inflados" también es literal suyo.

[newclo]

Vamos, que el mismo piso del año pasado a este ha subido su precio un 20% en operaciones reales de veces, no que los precios de oferta estén inflados y luego se vendan por un 20% menos del precio publicitado

[Derby]

Buenas tardes
Feliz verano lleven

Me comenta un amigo de Barcelona con una pequeña inmobiliaria propia que, basado en los 50-70 pisos que vende al cabo del año, del verano pasado a este los precios de las operaciones cerradas están inflados un +20% de media.

Palabras literales y ventas reales entre particulares.
Lo de "inflados" también es literal suyo.

Efectivamente, así es. La financiación se ha complicado porque las tasaciones se quedan por debajo del precio de venta que está inflado. Hay mucho inversor amateur que está entrando en el mercado tanto de segunda mano como de obra nueva. Este tipo de inversor vive con la ilusión de que un cambio de partido en el gobierno supondrá la inmediata derogación de la normativa de contención de rentas que aplica en Cataluña.

En el caso de la obra nueva, como la herramienta que emite el índice de precios de alquiler del Ministerio de Vivienda no facilita datos para pisos construidos en los últimos 5 años, muchos pequeños inversores van directamente a comprar estos pisos para eludir de facto la normativa de contención de rentas.

Y, por último, todos estos avispados inversores están tratando de salir al mercado de alquiler de temporada antes de que la anunciada legislación que equipará la renta de los alquileres de temporada y por habitaciones a los de vivienda habitual y permanente, sea aprobada por el Parlament.

Una carrera desaforada...https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jZVL8gIUII8

[Urederra]

House price DROP imminent across all of America: Sales collapse at highest rate on record... with these cities at epicenter



https://www.dailymail.co.uk/real-estate/article-14926417/house-price-drop-america-sales-collapse.html

Dejo otro enlace donde se hacen eco de la noticia y la desarrolla.

https://www.newsweek.com/house-prices-falling-us-economy-2101840

[CHOSEN]

Van a empezar a intercambiar Ladrillos por Criptos en las alturas de la hiper_sobrevaloración.
El dinero ya no puede pagar ni unos ni otras.
Esto va a ser un auténtico infierno. Antes, durante y después.

[Urederra]

Tengo la impresión de que este verano va a haber un punto de inflexión en los datos referentes el turismo en España.

Son ya varias las noticias y comentarios que he leído y escuchado de que este verano hay menos turistas y menos gasto en varios puntos tradicionales de veraneo de la costa mediterránea.

¿ Pueden ser una malas noticias en los datos de facturación por turismo y menos afluencia de personas de otros países el desencadenante que estábamos esperando en España para que se frenen en seco las fantasías animadas del sector inmobiliario ?

¿ Será en Octubre?

Saludos