PPCC. PIsitófilos Creditófagos. Verano 2020

[Derby]

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-54124996

Israel and Bahrain agree to normalise relations

[Derby]

La disponibilidad de crédito hipotecario está en mínimos de 6 años, y eso con las compras brutales de MBSs de la Fed:


https://twitter.com/TaviCosta/status/1304258856491646976

https://www.thestreet.com/mishtalk/economics/the-fed-now-owns-nearly-one-third-of-all-us-mortgages

The Fed Now Owns Nearly One Third of All US Mortgages



Nearly $7 Trillion in Securities, $2 Trillion Mortgages

As of August 26, 2020 the Fed's Balance Sheet is nearly $7 trillion total of which $3.7 trillion are notes or bonds, and nearly $2 trillion in mortgages (Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, or Ginnie Mae).

No End in Sight to Fed's Mortgage Buying Spree

Bloomberg reports No End in Sight to Fed's Mortgage Buying Spree.

Key Points

-The Fed has snapped up $1 trillion of mortgage bonds since March. It bought around $300 billion of the bonds in each of March and April, and since then has been buying about $100 billion a month.

-The Fed now owns almost a third of bonds backed by home loans in the U.S.

-Buying the securities has pushed mortgage rates lower, with the average 30-year rate falling to 2.91% as of last week from 3.3% in early February.

-Morgan Stanley analysts pointed out in late March that the buying was running at eight times the pace seen in prior episodes of Fed purchasing under programs known as quantitative easing.

-Just before this latest round, principal payments from its mortgage bond holdings had whittled that down to 21%, but it has now increased back to 30%.

-If the Fed maintains its current buying pace, it will again own 34% of the mortgage universe by year’s end.(...)

[Derby]

http://www.economo.co.uk/poland-calls-for-suspension-of-the-construction-of-nord-stream-2/

Poland calls for suspension of the construction of Nord Stream 2

[Derby]

https://www.themeditelegraph.com/en/markets/finance-and-politics/2020/09/09/news/norway-s-government-in-deficit-for-the-first-time-in-25-years-1.39286579

Norway's government in deficit for the first time in 25 years

Norway's quarterly public spending exceeded the government's overall income for the first time in 25 years during the three months from April to June, Statistics Norway (SSB) said on Wednesday. The unusual deficit, amounting to $9.5 billion, came as the COVID-19 pandemic caused a sharp fall in tax revenue and in the price of crude oil

[Derby]

https://dailybusinessgroup.co.uk/2020/09/uk-signs-post-brexit-trade-deal-with-japan/

UK signs post-Brexit trade deal with Japan

Britain has secured a post-Brexit trade deal with Japan, its most significant trading agreement since leaving the EU.

It is likely to provide a timely injection of optimism for the Tory government as it engages in tense negotiations with Brussels.

The government claimed the agreement will boost trade with Japan by £15.2bn over the next 15 years and UK businesses will enjoy tariff-free trade on 99% of exports to the country.

International Trade Secretary Liz Truss agreed the deal, in principle, with Japan’s foreign minister Toshimitsu Motegi on a video call this morning.

Ms Truss hailed it as a “historic moment for the UK” and said it was an improvement on the EU-Japan trade deal.

“The agreement we have negotiated – in record time and in challenging circumstances – goes far beyond the existing EU deal, as it secures new wins for British businesses in our great manufacturing, food and drink, and tech industries,” she said.(...)

[Derby]

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-russia-politics-navalny-germany-nords/nord-stream-2-should-not-be-used-to-punish-russia-says-german-state-leader-idUSKBN2622MP?rpc=401&

Nord Stream 2 should not be used to punish Russia, says German state leader

(...) Manuela Schwesig, premier of the north eastern German state of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, said the pipeline should not be used “as a punitive means”.

“The Baltic Sea pipeline is not a Russian project, the Baltic Sea pipeline does not just serve Russian interests,” she told reporters at the German port of Mukran on the Baltic Sea.

“The Baltic Sea pipeline is above all in the interests of Germany and western Europe as we want to achieve the energy transformation,” she added.

The project is more than 90% complete, scheduled to operate from early 2021 and would double the capacity of the existing Nord Stream 1 pipeline from Russia to Germany, Europe’s largest economy.

Schwesig criticised the idea of importing U.S. fracking gas as an alternative: “Just why anyone thinks that U.S. fracking gas should be cleaner and cheaper when it has to be shipped over here ... I don’t know.”

Chancellor Angela Merkel, who had until now been unwavering in her support for Nord Stream 2, wants to agree a response to the affair with Germany’s European Union partners and is first awaiting an explanation from Russia.

[Derby]

https://www.bruegel.org/2020/09/financing-the-european-union-new-context-new-responses/

Financing the European Union: New Context, New Responses

With the European Union for the first time taking on debt to help finance the economic recovery from the coronavirus, new resources are needed to fund the EU budget. Various ideas have been floated – including a digital tax and a financial transactions tax – but the most appropriate new resource would be revenues from the EU emissions trading system, which could provide enough funding to repay the EU's coronavirus borrowing.

Roughly two thirds of the European Union’s budget is financed out of member states’ national tax revenues. These resources, based on gross national incomes, are transparent, fair and in line with the principle of subsidiarity but they lead to political debates that emphasise the cost of EU spending rather than the benefits, and add to the perception of the EU budget in terms of net balances, rather than value added.

The financing of the EU budget must be reassessed in the light of the July 2020 decision to launch the Next Generation EU programme. Budget resources could include a plastics charge, a carbon border adjustment mechanism, a digital tax, revenues from emissions trading and a financial transactions tax. We evaluate these options against four criteria: whether the origin of the revenue can be assigned to a particular member state; whether the revenue can be raised in isolation or requires pan-European tax coordination; whether the new resource can help reduce tax distortions in the EU; and whether the resource is related to EU policies.

Revenues from emissions allowances fit these criteria best. Carbon emissions do not primarily cause damage only where they occur. Taking the EU cap on emissions as a given, additional emissions in a particular member state should be regarded as a negative externality on other member states. Emission reduction objectives are set at EU level. Whoever auctions off an allowance, wherever the corresponding emission occurs in the EU, and wherever the resulting good or service is consumed, the impact on common policy outcomes is the same. In this regard, proceeds from the sale of emissions trading system allowances are not that different from customs duties.

Compared to the ETS, the other candidates for EU own resources are less convincing. Carbon border adjustments are intended to limit international competitive distortions rather than to generate revenue. Digital taxes and minimum corporate taxes are best left to the process underway in the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development. On a financial transactions tax there is no agreement within the EU.

Total ETS revenues up to 2050 would approach €800 billion in a realistic scenario and possibly even €1.5 trillion assuming the scope of the ETS and the share of auctioned permits are increased. ETS revenues therefore would be largely sufficient to repay the Next Generation EU debt. However they would generate distributional effects, and so part of the revenues should finance grandfathered rights that would accrue to the member states. The EU can tackle the distributional issues involved in the reform of own resources.

[puede ser]

He visto una encuesta de un numero muy alto de trabajadores (decenas de miles) y la gran mayoría querían una solución mixta con mayor flexibilidad pero volviendo regularmente a trabajar juntos. Curiosamente los que más lo echaban de menos no eran las familias, sino solteros que vivían solos. Soy consciente de que no se puede comparar el confinamiento con una situación normal.

Pues a mí no me llama la atención. El deseo sexual es lo que mueve al ser humano tal y como enfatizó Freud (estadísticamente hablando, claro).
 

[Derby]

https://themarketear.com/

US M2 velocity and M2 growth
Go figure....

[mpt]

He visto una encuesta de un numero muy alto de trabajadores (decenas de miles) y la gran mayoría querían una solución mixta con mayor flexibilidad pero volviendo regularmente a trabajar juntos. Curiosamente los que más lo echaban de menos no eran las familias, sino solteros que vivían solos. Soy consciente de que no se puede comparar el confinamiento con una situación normal.

Pues a mí no me llama la atención. El deseo sexual es lo que mueve al ser humano tal y como enfatizó Freud (estadísticamente hablando, claro).

en mis desvarios la gran pregunta del covid y su sinergia con el "hoy no me quiero deflactar" -especialmente referido a ex-occidente- y todo ello en el trampantojo de la "agenda 2030", es si se transformara en otra cosa el "positivismo feliz", la "autoestima alta gratis"; sin duda es una transformacion dificil y enrevesada, pues todo ello ha sido un notable creador de trabajo de mierda y su alteracion quizas haga peligrar mucho empleo y reste mucha velocidad al dinero

como detalle puntual de alteraciones y cambios sociales, vease el teletrabajo; dejando de lado el tema de los egos, que apenas se ha citado aqui, sea el ego del "amo", el del cargo intermedio, o el del currito que si no se muda para que lo vean le va a dar una depre; nos queda el tema de la soledad y la baja socializacion, esta claro que los teletrabajadores tendran que crear nuevos tiempo-espacio compartidos donde dar suelta imaginaria a

El deseo sexual es

[Derby]

https://www.politicshome.com/news/article/boris-zoom-call-failure

Boris Johnson Tried To Get His MPs To Back Him Over Brexit On A Zoom Call. It Didn't Quite Go To Plan

Boris Johnson's plea to MPs to back him in his controversial Brexit plans descended into farce this evening as his Zoom call was hit by technical problems, singing politicians and interventions from Theresa May.

[Derby]

https://www.investing.com/analysis/waiting-for-inflation-to-return-you-may-be-waiting-a-long-time-200537172

Waiting For Inflation To Return? You Might Be Waiting A Long Time

(...) Even the velocity of MZM tells us we have no inflation to worry about. The simple formula shows that one needs output growth to get the pace of money moving. To get those higher inflation rates, we need the nominal GDP to be larger than the money supply, and then to grow at an even faster pace.

Currently, the size of the money supply has grown so large, it exceeds the total nominal GDP, pushing the velocity of MZM below 1, and its lowest level since the mid-1960s.



(...) Additionally, bond yields on the 10-year U.S. Treasury have remained stubbornly low, around 70 basis points. They have failed to acknowledge at this point the slightest possibility of inflation creeping back into the economy.

The bond market is even telling the stock market; growth is not coming back in a meaningful way anytime soon. Take it one step further, 10-year breakeven inflation rates have risen well off their lows, returning to 1.7%, which is where they were before the Fed started increasing its balance sheet by around $3 trillion. Also, 5-year, 5-year forward inflation expectations are at 1.8%, also on par with their pre-coronavirus levels. 



(...) Whether the Fed decides to print even more money and expand its balance sheet even further, may not matter. Most of the money that investors are focused on is sitting idle.

Currently, the U.S.Treasury general account at the Fed holds about $1.6 trillion, while excess reserves of depository institutions at the Fed is around $2.7 trillion, and another $2.0 trillion as currency in circulation. In total, those three accounts amount to roughly $6.3 trillion of the Fed's approximately $7 trillion balance sheet.



It seems at this point, with the GDP taking a big hit from the coronavirus, output growth is not going to grow fast enough to outpace all the money the Fed is printing. Which means we are not likely to see inflation return any time soon.

It will take a surge in GDP to get the pace of money changing hands to rise again, and to get inflation rates higher.

That lack of GDP growth was the reason why there was little to no inflation the last time the Fed conducted QE. It will likely be the same story this time around too.

[Derby]

https://miwi-institut.de/archives/192

On US threats over Nord Stream 2: American liquefied gas will cost Germany a lot more money and CO2 emissions

Washington has been vigorously trying for years to prevent the completion of the Nord Stream 2 project, which is supposed to transport up to 57 billion cubic meters of Russian natural gas annually from Western Siberia across the Baltic Sea floor directly to consumers in Germany and Europe.

In order to achieve their goal, the American authorities employ all means, including threatening letters to German companies and ports, as well as extra-territorial sanctions against their own Western ally.

According to official positions, the US is allegedly concerned that Nord Stream 2 would increase Europe’s energy dependency on a “strategic rival”. However, economic estimations and other facts clearly show that the cowboy behavior of our American partners is rather motivated by mundane financial interests.

Europe is not as energy-dependent on Moscow as it seems. According to Eurostat, Russia supplied over 38 percent of all extra-EU natural gas imports from in 2019. According to the German Handelsblatt newspaper, however, that accounted for only 6 percent of the EU’s total energy consumption.

Due to the European energy transition (“EU Green Deal”), the decision of the German government to shut down coal and nuclear power plants by 2022, and also because of the decision by Ukraine to buy gas from Europe and not directly from Gazprom, the European demand for natural gas is unlikely to decline but will remain relatively stable until 2050. This assumption is supported by official evaluations of the European Commission.

Natural gas is likely to play an important role as a bridging agent in the EU’s energy transition, as it is the least carbon-intensive of the fossil fuels. When it is combusted, around 40 percent less CO2 is emitted than with coal and around 25 percent less than with crude oil.

At the same time, the demand for gas imports will increase by an average of 11 percent every five years during this period due to the decline in domestic production. The total demand of the EU, Switzerland and western Ukraine for natural gas in 2025 should therefore amount to around 500 billion cubic meters, of which around 400 billion cubic meters will have to be imported. This is a consensus forecast from German, British, Dutch, Swedish, Ukrainian and EU researchers.

However, since production will also decline in two of the EU’s most important external gas suppliers – Algeria and Norway – an import gap will arise (e.g. of approx. 76 billion cubic meters in 2025), which only the global market for liquefied natural gas (LNG) and Russia will be able to close.

As a result, Europeans will be forced to buy this necessary volume of gas mainly either via pipelines (including Nord Stream 2) from Russia or on the international LNG market, mostly from Qatar, Australia, and … the US.

If the Germans and other Europeans decide to buy this gas from the Americans rather than from the Russians, they will have to pay more, and domestic gas prices will rise. These are the research results of several independent research institutes and economists.

According to detailed forecasts by the Oxford Institute for Energy Research, the average price for liquefied natural gas supplied from the USA to Northwest Europe will be around EUR 6.65 per mmBThU in 2025, while that for pipeline gas supplied from Russia to Central Europe will only be around USD 6.25 per mmBThU. On average, Russian gas will be around 40 euro cents cheaper per mmBThU than American tanker gas. (Exchange rate: USD 1 = EUR 0.85, as of August 10, 2020).

As mentioned in the beginning, the planned throughput capacity of Nord Stream 2 should be up to 57 billion cubic meters per annum. The conversion rate for 1 cubic meter of natural gas is 35,310,734.46 mmBThU. If the United States succeed in preventing the completion of Nord Stream 2 so that Germany and other EU member states would not buy the same volume of gas from Russia, but instead, hypothetically, exclusively from the USA, then the EU would have to annually pay a total of EUR 805 million more. Applying Eurostat’s rough distribution quota for Russian natural gas imports into the EU, the additional costs for Germany and Italy would each amount to EUR 161 million per year (Tab. 1). By 2030, the additional costs due to the lack of Nord Stream 2 could add up to almost EUR 8 billion for the EU, and EUR 1.6 billion for Germany alone.

On the other hand, preventing the Nord Stream 2 project could bring the United States an annual income of EUR 13.4 billion. By 2030 that would amount to a total of EUR 133 billion.(...)

[wanderer]

En el foro fue más que comentado en su día el batacazo que se pegaron los hidrocarburos en pleno confinamiento, dónde se llegaron a ver precios de spot
muy negativos. Ahora nos vienen con ésto, que difícilmente puede considerarse sorprendente:

¿Tesla, Uber, Blablacar, metro? El verdadero enemigo de las petroleras es el teletrabajo
El teletrabajo, intensificado como consecuencia de las restricciones derivadas de la pandemia, se revela como uno de los factores que más puede dañar la demanda de hidrocarburos
https://www.elconfidencial.com/empresas/2020-09-12/digitalizacion-era-postcovid-amenaza-negocio-petrolero_2744976/

[Lurker]

https://www.vozpopuli.com/opinion/pekin-trump-elecciones_0_1390961257.html

Pekín contra Trump

Mientras todos miran hacia Rusia, los que han convertido las elecciones estadounidenses en una cuestión de Estado son los jefes del Partido Comunista chino

Conforme se acercan las elecciones del 3 de noviembre, el temor a la injerencia extranjera crece en Estados Unidos. Hace cuatro años Rusia fue el gran protagonista y el asunto además trajo cola durante años. Dio lugar a una investigación a cargo del fiscal especial Robert Mueller que concluyó hace sólo año medio, en marzo de 2019, con el informe que Mueller envió al fiscal general Barr poniendo la guinda final al caso. Pocas cosas han hecho correr tanta tinta en los últimos años como la trama rusa de 2016. Mueller no encontró pruebas de que la campaña de Trump se conchabase con agentes rusos para perjudicar a Hillary Clinton y el asunto quedó ahí.

Lo de Rusia sigue vivo. Surgen acusaciones aquí y allá de que desde Moscú se opera de manera subterránea para promover la elección de Trump, pero son eso mismo, acusaciones sin apoyo firme con pruebas por delante. Es posible que Vladimir Putin prefiera en el despacho oval a Trump que a Biden, pero eso no demuestra nada per se. A Trump no le sobran los amigos por el mundo, todo lo contrario. Aparte de los enemigos natos de EEUU como Irán o Venezuela, en otros lugares del mundo se la tienen jurada. Nada gustaría más a los líderes de la Unión Europea que la era Trump acabase cuanto antes. No digamos ya al régimen chino que, desde que Trump aterrizó en la Casa Blanca, se ha convertido en el villano número uno para su administración.


El Partido Comunista no quiere que nadie cuestione su régimen y, menos aún, que estorben en sus planes por Eurasia y África

A China, como segunda potencia mundial que es, le afecta quien gobierne en EEUU. Posee una cantidad muy grande de deuda estadounidense, algo más de un billón de dólares, y es su primer mercado de exportación. Aproximadamente el 20% de las exportaciones chinas van a EEUU. Ya sólo por eso están muy interesados en que el presidente sea amigo de China como lo fue, por ejemplo, Clinton, Bush u Obama. Pero el Gobierno chino tiene también intereses políticos y geoestratégicos. El Partido Comunista no quiere que nadie cuestione su régimen y, menos aún, que estorben en sus planes de expansión por Eurasia y África.


Trump les declaró, nada más llegar, la guerra comercial, subió aranceles, machacó a Huawei, pidió a las empresas estadounidenses que se fuesen de allí y ha apoyado a todos los que están a malas con Pekín, desde las Filipinas de Rodrigo Duterte a los rebeldes hongkoneses. En definitiva, Trump está siendo una pesadilla para el régimen, su animadversión hacia él ha crecido incluso con la aparición del coronavirus, al que Trump hace unos meses se refirió despectivamente como 'virus chino'. Ante tanta hostilidad, los chicos de Xi Jinping no se iban a quedar de brazos cruzados y de un modo discreto pero efectivo hacen todo lo posible por influir en Washington tratando de contrarrestar las críticas hacia su Gobierno.

Tensiones raciales

Circulan informes de inteligencia que señalan actividades de agentes chinos dentro de EEUU. Uno de esos informes sirvió para que hace dos meses Trump ordenase el cierre del consulado chino en Houston donde, al parecer, se llevaba a cabo ciberespionaje y se dirigía una operación para identificar a los cabecillas de las protestas de Black Lives Matter, contractar con ellos y entrenarlos en técnicas de contrainformación a través de la red. No parece un mal método. Si en el interior de tu enemigo anidan tensiones raciales puedes utilizarlas en su contra. Eso es exactamente lo que el Partido Demócrata está haciendo, aunque ya descuentan que la operación se les ha ido de las manos y van poco a poco desmarcándose de los más violentos.

Esto, de cualquier modo, no es nuevo. En las elecciones de medio mandato de 2018 patrocinaron reportajes en la prensa de los Estados agrarios del interior (los más interesados en la exportación) para socavar las políticas proteccionistas de Trump. Aquello estuvo muy a la vista, otras operaciones no lo están tanto. A través de las redes sociales se puede hacer mucho más daño y ahí los chinos son unos alumnos aventajados de los rusos. Poseen redes de spam político que organizan campañas puntuales de desinformación colándose directamente en los teléfonos móviles a través de Twitter, Facebook o incluso Whatsapp.

Graphika ha detectado que esta red debutó hace cosa de un año con el estallido de las protestas en Hong Kong

Una conocida consultora de redes llamada Graphika tiene este procedimiento de infiltración e intoxicación muy bien estudiado. El mes pasado publicó un informe en el que señalaba a una de estas redes, conocida como Spamouflage Dragon, un nombre digno de una película de James Bond, como responsable de orquestar una campaña a gran escala de ciber-intoxicación a través de redes sociales. En esta red se elaboran y distribuyen una cantidad vídeos a través de Twitter y YouTube en los que se ataca a la administración Trump. La viralidad de estas plataformas hace el resto. Graphika ha detectado que esta red debutó hace cosa de un año con el estallido de las protestas en Hong Kong. A principios de 2020 cambió de tema y se pusieron a defender la gestión de la pandemia por parte del Gobierno chino. Aquello se sincronizó con el momento en el que todo el mundo acusaba a Pekín de haber ocultado durante meses la existencia de la enfermedad y de no estar dando toda la información sobre su origen y su extensión. Hace tres meses entraron en la campaña electoral de EEUU coincidiendo con el final de las primarias.

Este tipo de campañas de desinformación masiva no son fáciles de detectar cuando hay tanto ruido ambiente. Aún así el Gobierno chino no se esconde demasiado. Entre 2016 y 2020 ha gastado más de once millones de dólares en publicidad e inclusión de encartes y suplementos en la prensa estadounidense. A modo de comparación, se estima que los agentes rusos dedicaron unos 200.000 dólares a poner anuncios en Facebook contra Hillary Clinton. El célebre refrán de ‘unos llevan la fama y otros cardan la lana’ encaja como un guante aquí. Mientras todos miran hacia Rusia, los que han convertido estas elecciones en una cuestión de Estado son los jefes del Partido Comunista chino. Les va mucho en ello por lo que mantendrán el esfuerzo hasta el final.

---

Nada nuevo que no supiéramos. El mundo odia a Trump porque se lo merece (en parte). Parece que Vozpópuli ha sentido la necesidad de publicar algo que pone perspectiva. Los acuerdos de paz que está promoviendo este hombre parece que son entre 'los perjudicados del mundo que parece que se va'. Son importantes, de todos modos. La administración Trump no goza de ningún cariño, es un ancla que impide mover el barco en la dirección que la comunidad internacional (self-appointed?) pretende.

Cada vez me quedan menos dudas de que el vector principal de lo que estamos viviendo es este.

---

(*) Por cierto (y que me llueva lo que me tenga que llover, bien porque no sea el hilo o por 'tierraplanista'), he estado pensando que los números de fallecidos que presentó China son, en líneas generales, correctos. Muertes 'puras' por COVID sin comorbilidades asociadas. La definición de caso en China necesita de positivo por PCR, más síntomas y una reconocida exposición. Igual somos nosotros (Occidente) quienes nos estamos haciendo un lío muy gordo.

Sds.