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Humanity will shrink, far sooner than you thinkDemography sneaks up on youThe Economist · 2025.09.11Video: Simon Bailly / Sepia“In the past”, says Furkan Kayabasoglu, an obstetrician in Istanbul, “I would deliver a couple’s first baby and then their second or even a third.” These days, however, “one and done” parents are becoming the norm. Out of every ten births Mr Kayabasoglu attends, only one is of a second child. “We can’t even reach the number of births needed to train new doctors,” he laments.Last year Turkey’s total fertility rate (tfr), the number of births a typical woman will have in her lifetime if current patterns persist, fell to 1.48. That is well below the level needed to keep the population stable in the long run, which is about 2.1. It was also below what demographers had expected. The United Nations Population Division thought that Turkey’s tfr would not fall so low until at least the year 2100.Slumping birthrates are not confined to Turkey. All over the world, in poor and middle-income countries as well as rich ones, fertility is in much sharper decline than most projections had expected.Chart: The EconomistAlarming as this might sound, it is also more or less inevitable. Many population forecasts, including the un’s, are inflated by implausible assumptions (see chart). Demographers are naturally reluctant to predict that the current pace of decline in fertility rates will continue far into the future, since that would eventually yield a global population of zero. Yet even if you assume that fertility rates will stabilise or recover at some point, it is difficult to justify the choice of any particular year as the moment when that inflection might occur. In the minds of the un’s demographers, the least arbitrary solution to this problem is to assume that the recovery will begin right away.The un therefore projects that all countries that have transitioned to low fertility will follow one of only two trajectories: a stabilisation or an increase in baby-making. It puts the United States, for example, on the first path. The country’s tfr has fallen almost continuously from 1.9 births in 2010 to 1.6. And there, according to the un, is where it will stay for the rest of the century. On the second trajectory is South Korea, where the fertility rate has plunged from 1.2 to 0.72 over the past decade. The un assumes it will rise slowly back to 1.3 over the next 80 years.In none of these countries does the un expect fertility rates to continue falling. The improbable implication is that low fertility is a self-correcting problem and that the correction will begin immediately in some of the worst afflicted countries.It is indeed possible to imagine that fertility might recover in some countries. It has done so before, rising in the early 2000s in the United States and much of northern Europe as women who had delayed having children got round to it. But it is far from clear that the world is destined to follow this example, and anyway, birth rates in most of the places that seemed fecund are declining again. They have fallen by a fifth in Nordic countries since 2010.John Wilmoth of the United Nations Population Division explains one rationale for the idea that fertility rates will rebound: “an expectation of continuing social progress towards gender equality and women’s empowerment”. If the harm to women’s careers and finances that comes from having children were erased, fertility might rise. But the record of women’s empowerment thus far around the world is that it leads to lower fertility rates. It is not “an air-tight case”, concedes Mr Wilmoth.Anne Goujon of the iiasa, an institute in Austria that releases rival population projections, calls the expectation of a rebound in fertility “a bit of wishful thinking”. Other demographers question the notion, too. Ms Goujon says that the institute is preparing to include scenarios in which declining fertility persists in the next round of its forecasts.Indeed, there is good reason to suppose that fertility rates have further to fall in many countries. In India, for instance, fertility varies widely. In Delhi women can expect to have just 1.2 babies. In the poorer northern states of Uttar Pradesh and Bihar—together home to about 300m people—the fertility rate is more than double that, but is also falling. In effect, a huge chunk of northern India’s population is tracing the same demographic path as wealthier parts of the country, with a lag of a decade or so. That matters because the national average, now at 1.9, blends regions at different stages of fertility decline. Even if rates stabilise in richer regions, the national rate will continue to fall as poorer places catch up.A similar logic applies in many other countries, from Colombia to Turkey. If nothing else, the idea that the confluence of social trends that have lowered fertility would reverse all over the world at exactly the same time beggars belief. Yet even short delays make big differences to long-term projections of the world’s population.Chart: The EconomistTo show how sensitive the projected date of the global peak is to these assumptions, The Economist has analysed a few scenarios (see chart). The un expects that in 182 out of 210 countries the annualised change in fertility during the next 75 years will be greater than it has been since 2013. In most of the world, where the tfr has been falling, this means that those declines will either slow down, flatten entirely or start to reverse. In the handful of places where the tfr has been rising, it means that these recent gains would accelerate.We have maintained this assumption, but have shifted into the future the point at which this abrupt change in the fertility curve occurs. The impact of such a shift is large. We project that if the tfr goes on falling at its recent rate for even one more year, the eventual global population peak will arrive three years sooner, with 130m fewer people. If it declines for another decade before stabilising, peak humanity will arrive in 2065, with 750m fewer people.“Replacement fertility is a knife-edge,” says Lant Pritchett of the London School of Economics. “Over the very long run, humans shrink to zero or swell to huge numbers, depending on whether they stay below or above the replacement rate.” The assumption that TFR must trend towards replacement is alluring, simply because “It makes the maths embarrassing if you don’t.” Alarmist predictions of a “population bomb”, which were trendy in the 1960s, may have made demographers hesitant to predict the opposite: that humanity will soon be shrinking. And yet, alarming or not, that will soon be happening. This article appeared in the Briefing section of the print edition under the headline “The era of contraction”
¡Es para hoy! Soluciones para resolver el problema de la vivienda antes de que sea demasiado tarde.https://abundancia.maria-alvarez.com/p/es-para-hoy-soluciones-para-resolver
European pension funds: Assemble!Or not. Up to you really© APAlphaville was quick to talk down the prospects of co-ordinated European “weaponisation” of the continent’s ownership of US assets just because Trump said he might invade one of its allies. Were we too quick?We posted on Monday that you could “colour Alphaville a crimson shade of sceptical that this is a credible threat”, citing the problems of how to compel mostly private sector investors to sell, and the self-harm that it could inflict.But by Tuesday lunchtime, Reuters had reported that AkademikerPension, a $25bn Danish pension fund for academics, was ditching its $100mn of US Treasuries. Then on Wednesday, Dagens Industri reported that Alecta, Sweden’s largest private pension fund, managing around $140bn, had dumped 80-90 per cent of its roughly $11bn of US Treasury holdings (although Alphaville understands that the trades might have actually have been made during 2025).This comes after Pædagogernes Pension, the ca $12bn Danish early childhood teachers’ pension fund, and PFA Pension — Denmark’s largest pension fund with around $132bn of assets — had already taken action to reduce US exposure.PFA’s chief strategist Tine Choi Danielsen explained the move in a company blog post on Monday:CitarWe sold off US government bonds and increased our currency hedging last year because we were concerned about the US’s unilateral approach to trade policy and the Trump administration’s repeated challenges to the central bank’s independence. Naturally, we are monitoring the situation very closely and are prepared to take further action if necessary.Collectively, these are still small moves — almost infinitesimally small moves in the context of a $31tn stock of publicly held US debt. And barriers to European leaders getting their pension funds to dump US assets still look substantial, if that ever even turns out to be anyone’s plan. But it’s only Thursday morning.Given that it looks like Trump has walked back not only the US invasion but also his promise to tariff nations who objected to any invasion, perhaps the subject of Europe weaponising its capital is, for now, moot (though it’ll probably come back in due course).But did the pension fund move prove that Alphaville was wrong? We frequently are, after all. Horrifically so. But in this case we don’t think so. We were only exploring the possibility of collective, co-ordinated and compelled weaponisation of European investments in the US, and whether it could gives the EU leverage against Trump. That still seems far-fetched, for all the reasons we listed.Pension funds might all independently decide to take AkademikerPension’s lead. Stranger things have happened. But Alphaville is still unconvinced that this really moves the needle that much. Outside Denmark, the Netherlands, Sweden, Norway and the UK (local government), public sector pensions — and indeed most pensions — are largely unfunded.If we throw into the mix all private pension assets too, it’s really just the British, Dutch and Swiss pension systems that stand out as being worth more than a couple of CalPERS apiece.They each own a stack of US assets big enough to cause some damage to valuations if liquidated. But they also have mandates oriented around investment returns and will therefore mostly need actual coercing to dump their US holdings (unless they judge the risks of buying US stocks and bonds has just got too high).Of course, no one has suggested that it would only be European pension funds’ US assets that might be weaponised. As Toby discussed with Robert Armstrong in the Unhedged podcast, changing capital requirements for US bonds across banking and insurance would be a big big deal. However, it’s not clear whether doing this might accidentally blow up the financial system.Lastly, chapeau to George Saravelos. While Saravelos was only one of a number of analysts we picked up alerting their clients to the risk that Europeans might choose to respond to territorial threats by refraining from funding their American cousins, MainFT reports Scott Bessent as telling a Davos crowd yesterday:CitarThis notion that Europeans would be selling US assets came from a single analyst at Deutsche Bank, of course, the fake news media led by the Financial Times amplified it. The CEO of Deutsche Bank called to say that Deutsche Bank does not stand by that analyst.Any analyst can be thrown under the bus by an unclassy boss. But you know you’ve really made it when you get to learn your CEO has thrown you under the bus direct from the US Treasury secretary.
We sold off US government bonds and increased our currency hedging last year because we were concerned about the US’s unilateral approach to trade policy and the Trump administration’s repeated challenges to the central bank’s independence. Naturally, we are monitoring the situation very closely and are prepared to take further action if necessary.
This notion that Europeans would be selling US assets came from a single analyst at Deutsche Bank, of course, the fake news media led by the Financial Times amplified it. The CEO of Deutsche Bank called to say that Deutsche Bank does not stand by that analyst.
(...) y que el poder del Capital & Dinero es incompatible con que se monten estafas con las viviendas de sus asalariados porque es el Capital & Dinero quien paga los salarios y necesita de los trabajadores para existir, trabajadores que tienen que llegar a sus empresas cada mañana puntualmente, saneaditos y bien descansaditos en viviendas, no en 'himbersiones-licencias administrativas-cuotas de dios valor-ciudad'.(...)
Ganaderos de la Costa da Morte compran casas para poder alojar a sus trabajadoresCristina ViuLa falta de viviendas y de transporte complica la viabilidad de las granjasJosé Manuel Gil es un ganadero de Cores (Ponteceso) para el que trabajan once personas. Para conseguir esa plantilla ha tenido no solo que adquirir una casa, sino dos coches que pone al servicio de sus empleados para paliar las dificultades de transporte. Además, garantiza a un propietario de pisos en Ponteceso que no tendrá problemas para cobrar el alquiler. Todo esto no solo se ha reportado el personal que precisa para mantener las dos granjas que ahora gestiona, sino que ha hecho que en el instituto de Ponteceso haya dos alumnos más, hijos de dos parejas de su plantilla. Su caso no es, ni mucho menos, único. En los últimos tiempos se han adquirido y rehabilitado dos casas en la parroquia de Corcoesto, en el municipio de Cabana, y en Langueirón, en el de Ponteceso. Lo mismo está ocurriendo en otros concellos de la Costa da Morte.Las granjas de producción láctea están viviendo un momento dulce por el buen precio que tiene la leche y la carne y la contención de los gastos, sobre todo de alimentación. Cada vez hay menos explotaciones, pero más reses, lo que hace que los ganaderos necesiten mucha mano de obra. Ahora, son varias las empresas que tienen en torno a diez empleados, que son, en su mayor parte extranjeros. Ya solo eso complica la búsqueda de vivienda porque los propietarios de pisos no suelen fiarse, pero la principal dificultad es que las granjas están en zonas muy rurales, en las que no suele haber gran oferta de alquiler. A eso se le añade que el transporte público es muy deficitario, por lo que, durante años, muchos ganaderos tuvieron que ejercer de taxistas para trasladar a sus empleados. La mejora de la situación económica del sector ha hecho que muchos profesionales hayan optado por ofrecer vivienda o medios de transporte junto con el contrato de trabajo.Población«Trátase tamén de fixar poboación no rural», señala José Manuel Gil y también de hacerlo en mejores condiciones que las que tuvieron los emigrantes gallegos de los años 80. De hecho, todos los ganaderos consultados se referían a aquellos barracones en los que residían los que se fueron a trabajar al extranjero y el rechazo que les producía.Antonio Sánchez, de la granja A Devesa, explicaba que habían rechazado construir en la propia explotación y que habían elegido comprar en el núcleo para que hubiera una mayor integración y para que la fórmula sirviera también para dar más vida a lugares en los que la mayor parte de los vecinos están ya jubilados y en donde hay algunas casas que están cerradas.(...)
Cita de: senslev en Ayer a las 11:43:31¡Es para hoy! Soluciones para resolver el problema de la vivienda antes de que sea demasiado tarde.https://abundancia.maria-alvarez.com/p/es-para-hoy-soluciones-para-resolverEsta deposición es pensamiento mágico. Un castillo de naipes sin cimientos: «Las cosas tienen el valor que cada persona les asigna», dice literalmente, sin despeinarse. Desconoce la importancia de la mistificación fascistoide que supone el subjetivismo valorativo en Economía.Ya puede proponer cortar cabezas para conseguir una mejor distribución de ese valor subjetivo materializado en esas licencias administrativas que dice que, al final, son las viviendas, cuotas de un becerro de oro que sería «lo que vale mi Ciudad». Su lucha no es que sea impotente, sino que es parte de la retórica engañosa y antisistema del timojuego de dinero sin trabajar/emprender. Para castración, ya tenemos suficiente con la que hay, como para que vengan salvapatrias disfrazados de piel de cordero a consolidar los dogmas usurarios.Hay que contraponer que las cosas tienen valor en sí y, si tú las compras sobrevaloradas, lo que le sobra al precio es renta neta tuya que le transfieres al vendedor sin causa, solo para meterte en un timojuego de dinero sin trabajar o emprender. Esta es la realidad verdaderamente existente y lo demás es metafísica.Amar a tus padres no es escusa. Hay que ver en ellos lo estafadorcillos que han resultado con su autocomplacencia inmobiliaria creyéndose capitalistitas. Jode tener que jugar el rol de estafado, sí. Pero jode elevado al cuadrado cuando se sabe que uno no podrá resarcirse jugando el rol de estafador, «como hicieron mis padres».En particular, esta deposición que criticamos tiene mucho peligro. El primer día parecen ideas majas. Pero son rabiosamente sectarias. Respetan el 'statu quo' conscientes de su naturaleza antisistema, pero solo inciden en el «¡jo!, hagamos algo para que yo también pueda jugar, que tengo mi corazoncito».Lo más llamativo es que piensan como si no existiera la enfermedad y la muerte para el 'valor' (subjetivo) inmobiliario. Lo ven inmanente y eterno, consustancial al ser y estar de la Nación: una entidad espiritual inasible que reina por encima de tu destino. ¡Adoran a un dios que no es tal! Caen en una suerte de nuncabajismo trascendente y místico. Son santas Teresas en éxtasis, atravesadas por la luz de un supuesto valor económico ingénito. Hay que decirles que lo que está pasando en el mundo es que EE. UU. tiene pendiente de dar la crisis estructural en la que está metido de hoz y coz, pero se resiste cual niña de El Exorcista porque la frustración de su población va a ser inadministrable; que el núcleo duro de la estructura muerta es la sobrevaloración inmobiliaria y su falso efecto riqueza; que la estafa del Ladrillo, como toda estafa, se perpetra con engaño, es decir, violencia moral; y que el poder del Capital & Dinero es incompatible con que se monten estafas con las viviendas de sus asalariados porque es el Capital & Dinero quien paga los salarios y necesita de los trabajadores para existir, trabajadores que tienen que llegar a sus empresas cada mañana puntualmente, saneaditos y bien descansaditos en viviendas, no en 'himbersiones-licencias administrativas-cuotas de dios valor-ciudad'.En fin, esta deposición que criticamos ayer y hoy es una decepción. Enésima dinámica reaccionaria, esta especialmente siniestra, hija de la ruptura en la que estamos en este primer año de la nueva era.Cuanta más gente pique en el subjetivismo valorativo, peor para ellos. Lo bueno que tiene esta estafa es que la población susceptible de ser estafada es finita y deposiciones como esta prueban que se ha agotado incluso entre sus prosélitos.