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Creo que llego tarde al braimstorming. No me queda claro si es sobre lo que habría que hacer, o sobre la quiniela de lo que va a acabar pasando. Sere breveRescataría puntos del discurso olvidados ya (¿interesadamente?) y que no se han superado: -AUTONOMIZAZO -PENSIONAZO -SALARIAZO (sector público, porque el privado ya lo ha hecho). -Equiparar los impuestos de alquilar viviendas incluso por encima de otras actividades económicas.Sin tratar de hacer mucha sangre, lo de "No me rompas el corazon" suena a Síndrome de Éstocolmo del malo: Te pegan palos hasta en el BOE con cesiones para "Pequeños propietarios" y pedimos que nos nos apaleen mas....(sic).Lo de quitar los ahorros para seguir manteniendo el chiringuito de deuda.. bueno.. muchos foreros lo han expresado mejor de lo que yo podría hacerlo, solo aportar que es incoherente con defender estar en liquidez (el dinero siempre se venga) en vez de empepitado.En cuanto al modelado de los eventos del ticket, me rechina que cualquier evento que se alarga en el tiempo le tenemos que poner un "RE" delante. Pierde fuerza y credibilidad. Le daría una vuelta a los terminos que estamos usando:Burbuja -> ReburbujaPinchazo -> RepinchazoBoom de construcción -> ReconstrucciónEstrangulamiento Finaciero Total -> REestrangulamiento Financiero Total.
Wrapping upThe history books are still being written and no one has a crystal ball. We can't predict anything with 100% certainty - all we can look at is risk:reward and weigh the evidence.Data, facts, and history tell us that:Stocks (in particular tech stocks) COULD rally further, but there is a high risk of a violent shakeout. While the stock market could rally further over the next year (meaning now until mid-2021), risk:reward supports a short term pullback/correction. Nothing changes until everything changes all at once. I hope these indicators and charts have been useful. Instability is rising in the markets after an epic multi-month rally, so stay vigilant and monitor market developments closely. And as always, stay safe during the current pandemic. Health > wealth
https://sentimentrader.com/blog/rising-instability-after-a-historic-stock-market-rally--25-6-2020/CitarWrapping upThe history books are still being written and no one has a crystal ball. We can't predict anything with 100% certainty - all we can look at is risk:reward and weigh the evidence.Data, facts, and history tell us that:Stocks (in particular tech stocks) COULD rally further, but there is a high risk of a violent shakeout. While the stock market could rally further over the next year (meaning now until mid-2021), risk:reward supports a short term pullback/correction. Nothing changes until everything changes all at once. I hope these indicators and charts have been useful. Instability is rising in the markets after an epic multi-month rally, so stay vigilant and monitor market developments closely. And as always, stay safe during the current pandemic. Health > wealth
Cita de: senslev en Junio 25, 2020, 17:24:42 pmhttps://sentimentrader.com/blog/rising-instability-after-a-historic-stock-market-rally--25-6-2020/CitarWrapping upThe history books are still being written and no one has a crystal ball. We can't predict anything with 100% certainty - all we can look at is risk:reward and weigh the evidence.Data, facts, and history tell us that:Stocks (in particular tech stocks) COULD rally further, but there is a high risk of a violent shakeout. While the stock market could rally further over the next year (meaning now until mid-2021), risk:reward supports a short term pullback/correction. Nothing changes until everything changes all at once. I hope these indicators and charts have been useful. Instability is rising in the markets after an epic multi-month rally, so stay vigilant and monitor market developments closely. And as always, stay safe during the current pandemic. Health > wealthEn resumen: La bolsa puede subir, pero también puede bajar.
Será en octubre Así que ya tenemos fecha.Gobierno, patronal y sindicatos acuerdan la extensión de los ERTE hasta el 30 de septiembrehttps://www.elespanol.com/invertia/economia/empleo/20200625/gobierno-patronal-sindicatos-acuerdan-extension-erte-septiembre/500450529_0.html
Zara y El Corte Inglés adelantan las rebajas porque detectan que la fiebre por las compras se va diluir en dos mesesLos datos constatan que, tras un pico de ventas por encima de las expectativas con la reapertura de los centros, el gasto de los clientes va comenzando a descender
Población española por tramo de edad, en estos momentos están en franja de compra (40-44 años) la generación más numerosa de la historia de España (4.01 millones de personas) que bajan hasta los 2.13 millones (población de 20-24 años). Ya veremos que ocurre con el inmobiliario.
Barcelona’s Epic Tourism Boom Is Over, Now the Crisis Begins: My Walk to the BeachOwner of a small cafe that specializes in fine cakes and sandwiches tells me: “We’ll be lucky if we get half the normal number in July and August.” It’s now “all about damage control.”In seven days’ time, the Spanish government will finally reopen Spain’s borders to international tourism. But travelers from 54 nations, including the U.S., Russia and Brazil, will probably still be barred from the bloc. And cruise ships will be banned from docking at Spanish ports for at least the whole of the summer.Of the remaining nationalities that can travel to Europe, no one knows just how many will actually come. Some of the business owners I’ve spoken to are not exactly optimistic.“We’ll be lucky if we get half the normal number in July and August,” says the owner of a small cafe in Barceloneta that specializes in fine cakes and sandwiches. This summer, she says, is now “all about damage control.”Many Catalan business owners are hoping the domestic market will pick up some of the slack. But they’re not holding their breath. Despite the charm offensive being launched on all fronts by Catalonia’s regional government to try and lure holiday makers from other parts of Spain, with the slogan “Cataluña es tu casa” (Catalonia is your home), Catalan businesses know that most Spaniards still remember that roughly half of the people of Catalonia wanted to declare independence from Spain just three years ago. Those Spaniards who still hold a grudge will choose to spend their vacation bucks elsewhere.That means that Barcelona — and many places like it in Europe — is about to have its quietest summer for many a year.For many local residents who have had to put up with all the externalities of unfettered mass-tourism (myself included), it will probably make a welcome change. But for those whose jobs, businesses and rental income depend on tourism, the pain has only just begun. And it’s likely to end up affecting even those who are currently enjoying the idyllic — yet still slightly eerie — sight of quiet streets and empty beaches. By Nick Corbishley, for WOLF STREET.
China hits brakes on crude imports after buying frenzyChina will press the brakes on crude imports in the third quarter, after record purchases in recent months, as higher oil prices hurt demand and refiners worry about a second virus outbreak, analysts and trade sources said.China imported a record 11.3 million barrels per day (bpd) of crude in May, with volumes set to rise in June and July, as cheap crude purchased during an oil price slump in April arrives in the country.But the world’s top crude importer is expected to receive around 0.8-1.3 million bpd less crude from abroad in August and September than it did in May, analysts forecast.With Brent prices back above $40 a barrel and a new wave of coronavirus cases raising fears a nascent recovery could be derailed, traders say independent refineries – which account for a fifth of China’s crude imports – are already reducing the amount of crude oil they are buying.“With a more slow-paced demand recovery path ahead, we expect some run (rate) cuts in coming months, which could first start with some independent (refineries),” said Chen Jiyao, an oil market consultant at FGE.(...) But energy consultancies FGE, SIA Energy and Rystad Energy all expect imports to ease off in the third quarter from the second quarter, even as the country has added new refining capacity, underpinning crude demand.China’s crude imports should return to more normal levels of 4.2% growth year-on-year in the third quarter, down from 7.4% growth in the second quarter, said SIA Energy’s senior director Seng Yick Tee.Yuntao Liu, China analyst at Energy Aspects, estimated crude arrivals of 10.5 million bpd in August and less than 10 million bpd in September, slipping from imports of more than 11.5 million bpd in July.
From boom to bust? Charting the US shale industry’s rise and potential fallIn the analysis, IEEFA’s director of finance Tom Sanzillo, said that “even after a decade of technical improvements and increasing investor scrutiny, most shale-focused companies still burn through more cash than they produce”.“The truth is undeniable — fracking is a failed experiment,” he added.
El Banco de España prevé que el PIB cierre el segundo trimestre con “el mayor retroceso de la serie histórica”Estima una caída del 20% por la dureza y duración del confinamiento, que habrían llevado el paro al 20%, y asume que la recuperación no llegará antes de finales de 2022
IMF warns markets at risk of correction after run-upMarkets for stocks and other risky assets could suffer a second swoon if the coronavirus spreads more widely, lockdowns are reimposed or trade tensions surge again, the International Monetary Fund warned on Thursday.